Ontario general election, 2011

Ontario general election, 2011

October 6, 2011

107 seats in the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario 54 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls Turnout 49.2%[1]   First party Second party Third party   Leader Dalton McGuinty Tim Hudak Andrea Horwath Party Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democratic Leader since December 1, 1996 June 27, 2009 March 7, 2009 Leader's seat Ottawa South Niagara West—Glanbrook Hamilton Centre Last election 71 seats, 42.3% 26 seats, 31.6% 10 seats, 16.8% Seats before 70 25 10 Seats won 53 37 17 Seat change 17 12 7 Popular vote 1,625,102 1,530,076 981,508 Percentage 37.65% 35.45% 22.74% Swing 4.6pp 3.8pp 5.9pp

Premier before election Dalton McGuinty Liberal Premier-designate

The 40th Ontario general election was held on October 6, 2011 to elect members of the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario. The Ontario Liberal Party was elected to a minority government, with the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario (PC Party) serving as the Official Opposition and the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) serving as a third party.

Under amendments passed by the Legislature in December 2005, Ontario elections are now held on fixed dates: the first Thursday of October every four years.^[2] The writ of election was issued by Lieutenant Governor David Onley on September 7, 2011.

The election saw a record low voter turnout of 49.2%.^[1]

Timeline

2007

• October 10, 2007: Elections held for members of the Ontario Legislature in the 39th Legislative Assembly of Ontario.
• November 29, 2007: The 39th Legislative Assembly of Ontario officially opens with the Speech from the Throne.

2008

• February 23, 2008: John Tory's continued leadership of the Progressive Conservative party is endorsed by 66.9% of delegates at a leadership review.
• June 14, 2008: Premier Dalton McGuinty receives the support of 95.4% of delegates from the Ontario Liberal Party's mandatory leadership review.
• June 14, 2008: NDP leader Howard Hampton announces he will be stepping down as party leader at the March 7, 2009 NDP leadership convention.

2009

• January 9, 2009: Progressive Conservative MPP Laurie Scott announces her resignation from the legislature to allow party leader John Tory, who has been without a seat since his defeat in Don Valley West in the 2007 election, to re-enter the legislature.
• March 5, 2009: In the Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock by-election following Scott's resignation, Tory is defeated by Liberal candidate Rick Johnson.
• March 6, 2009: John Tory resigns as Progressive Conservative leader pending the selection of an interim party leader.
• March 7, 2009: Andrea Horwath is elected leader of the Ontario NDP at the party's 2009 leadership convention.
• June 27, 2009: Tim Hudak is elected leader of the Progressive Conservative party at its 2009 leadership election and also becomes the new Leader of the Opposition.
• September 17, 2009: Eric Hoskins is elected as the MPP for the riding of St. Paul's following the resignation of Michael Bryant on June 7, 2009.
• November 4, 2009: Mike Schreiner is affirmed as the new leader of the Green Party of Ontario, receiving 97% approval from the party membership defeating the None of the Above ballot option, in the 2009 leadership election.

2010

• January 29, 2010: Bob Runciman resigns his seat to accept appointment to the Senate of Canada.
• February 1, 2010: Jim Watson resigns his seat to run for Mayor in the Ottawa municipal election, 2010
• February 4, 2010: Glen Murray is elected as the MPP for the riding of Toronto Centre following the resignation of George Smitherman on January 4, 2010.
• March 4, 2010: Bob Chiarelli is elected as the MPP for the riding of Ottawa West—Nepean and Steve Clark is elected as the MPP for the riding of Leeds—Grenville.
• December 16, 2010: Peter Fonseca resigned from cabinet to run for the federal Liberals in the riding of Mississauga East—Cooksville in the 2011 federal election.^[3]

2011

• June 3, 2011: Essex MPP Bruce Crozier dies of an aortic aneurysm.^[4]
• September 7, 2011: Official election call, Premier McGuinty formally asks the Lt. Governor to dissolve the legislature. The campaign will be 29 days long.
• September 21–30, 2011: Advance polling stations open for early voting from 10:00 a.m. until 8:00 p.m.^[5]
• September 27, 2011: The televised Leaders debate aired on CBC, CHCH, CTV, Global, TVOntario and Sun News Network, with Liberal leader and Premier Dalton McGuinty, Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak and New Democratic Party leader Andrea Horwath.^[6]
• October 6, 2011: Ontario general election from 9:00 a.m. until 9:00 p.m. EDT (8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. CDT in north-western part of the province).

Party leadership

In March 2009, PC Party leader John Tory stepped down as leader, with Tim Hudak elected to be his successor. Also in March 2009, Andrea Horwath replaced Howard Hampton as leader of the NDP at the leadership election. Thus, both the Progressive Conservatives and the NDP went into the election with a new leader. Green Party of Ontario leader Frank de Jong stepped down in November 2009; their leadership convention confirmed Mike Schreiner as their new leader. Dalton McGuinty won 95 percent support for his leadership at an Ontario Liberal annual general meeting after the 2007 election, and ran again in 2011.

Party standings

Summary

Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario - seats won/lost by party, 2007-2011

Party		2007	Gain from(loss to)			2011
			Lib	PC	NDP
	Liberal	71		(11)	(7)	53
	Progressive Conservative	26	11			37
	New Democratic	10	7			17
Total		107	18	(11)	(7)	107

Detailed analysis

 Summary of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario election results

Party		Party leader	Candidates	Seats				Popular vote
				2007	Dissol.	2011	Change	#	%	Change
	Liberal	Dalton McGuinty	107	71	70	53	-18	1,625,102	37.65%	-4.7%
	Progressive Conservative	Tim Hudak	107	26	25	37	+11	1,530,076	35.45%	+3.8%
	New Democratic	Andrea Horwath	107	10	10	17	+7	981,508	22.74%	+5.9%
	Green	Mike Schreiner	107	-	-			126,021	2.92%	-5.1%
	Libertarian	Sam Apelbaum	51	-	-			19,447	0.45%	+0.3%
	Family Coalition	Phil Lees	31	-	-			9,524	0.22%	-0.6%
	Freedom	Paul McKeever	57	-	-			9,253	0.21%	+0.1%
	Independents and no affiliation		36	-	-			9,021	0.21%	–
	Communist	Elizabeth Rowley	9	-	-			1,162	0.03%	-0.01%
	Northern Ontario Heritage	Edward Deibel	3	-	-			676	0.02%
	Special Needs	Danish Ahmed	4	-	-			667	0.02%	+0.01%
	Reform	Bradley J. Harness	4	-	-			647	0.01%	+0.01%
	Paramount Canadians	Ranvir Dogra	4	-	-			562	0.01%
	Confederation of Regions	vacant	3	-	-			559	0.01%	–
	Socialist	Michael Laxer	5	-	-			519	0.01%
	People's Political Party	Kevin Clarke	4	-	-			386	< .01%
	Vegan Environmental	Paul Figueiras	3	-	-			366	< .01%
	Republican	Trueman Tuck	3	-	-			232	< .01%	–
	The Only Party	Michael Green	3	-	-			188	< .01%
	Human Rights	Marilyn McCormick	2	-	-			170	< .01%
	Canadians' Choice	Bahman Yazdanfar	3	-	-			156	< .01%
	Paupers	John Turmel	2	-	-			140	< .01%
	Vacant				2
Total			655	107	107	107		4,316,382	100%	-2.43%
Source: "40TH GENERAL ELECTION - SUMMARY OF VALID BALLOTS CAST" (PDF). Elections Ontario. Retrieved May 17, 2014.

Candidates and local results

Incumbent MPPs not running for re-election

Liberal Wayne Arthurs, Pickering—Scarborough East [7] Jim Brownell, Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry [8] David Caplan, Don Valley East [9] Aileen Carroll, Barrie [10] Bruce Crozier, Essex (died in office, June 3, 2011)[4] Pat Hoy, Chatham-Kent—Essex [11] Jean-Marc Lalonde, Glengarry—Prescott—Russell [12] Steve Peters, Elgin—Middlesex—London [13] Gerry Phillips, Scarborough—Agincourt [14] Sandra Pupatello, Windsor West [15] David Ramsay, Timiskaming—Cochrane [16] Tony Ruprecht, Davenport [17] Monique Smith, Nipissing [18]

Progressive Conservative Gerry Martiniuk, Cambridge [19] Bill Murdoch, Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound [20] Joyce Savoline, Burlington [21] Norm Sterling, Carleton—Mississippi Mills [22] New Democratic Party Peter Kormos, Welland [23] Howard Hampton, Kenora—Rainy River[24]

Opinion polls

Polling Firm	Date of Polling	Link	Liberal	PC	NDP	Green	Type of poll	Margin of error
Angus Reid	October 4–5, 2011	PDF	37	33	26	3	Online	3.6%
EKOS	October 3–5, 2011	PDF	37.7	31.5	23.3	5.9	Interactive voice response	2.0%
Forum Research	October 4, 2011	HTML	37	36	23	3	Interactive voice response	3.1%
Angus Reid	October 3–4, 2011	PDF	33	36	26	5	Online	2.1%
Abacus Data	October 3–4, 2011	HTML	37	34	24	4	Online	3.1%
EKOS	October 2–4, 2011	PDF	39.0	29.7	23.1	6.6	Interactive voice response	2.2%
Nanos Research	October 2–3, 2011	PDF	40.1	33.0	23.2	2.8	Telephone	4.2%
EKOS	October 2–3, 2011	PDF	39.1	29.1	24.5	6.0	Interactive voice response	2.9%
Nanos Research	October 1–3, 2011	PDF	37.7	33.2	25.8	2.1	Telephone	3.4%
Ipsos Reid	September 30 – October 3, 2011	PDF	41	31	25	3	Telephone	3.1%
Nanos Research	September 30 – October 2, 2011	PDF	35.9	36.4	25.7	1.2	Telephone	3.5%
EKOS	September 29 – October 2, 2011	PDF	37.8	30.6	22.7	7.3	Interactive voice response	2.8%
Nanos Research	September 29 – October 1, 2011	PDF	36.5	34	26.8	1.9	Telephone	3.5%
Nanos Research	September 28–30, 2011	PDF	38.0	35.3	24.6	1.8	Telephone	3.5%
Angus Reid	September 28–30, 2011	PDF	33	34	26	6	Online	3.1%
Leger Marketing	September 28–29, 2011	PDF	32	34	29	5	Online	3.1%
Nanos Research	September 28–29, 2011	PDF	37.7	34.4	25.5	2.0	Telephone	4.3%
Environics	September 26–28, 2011	HTML	35	36	25	3	Online
Abacus Data	September 23–25, 2011	PDF	33	37	23	6	Online	2.9%
EKOS	September 21–25, 2011	PDF	34.9	31.4	24.7	7.6	Interactive voice response	2.3%
Forum Research	September 22–23, 2011	HTML	35	35	23	5	Interactive voice response	0.5%
Angus Reid	September 13–15, 2011	HTML	32	36	26	6	Online	3.1%
Leger Marketing	September 12–15, 2011	PDF	33	36	26	5	Online	3.1%
Abacus Data	September 9–12, 2011	HTML	32	41	20	6	Online	3.2%
Nanos Research	September 10–11, 2011	PDF	38.1	34.7	24.3	2.7	Telephone	4.9%
Ipsos Reid	September 7–11, 2011	HTML	38	37	24	1	Telephone	3.5%
Harris-Decima	August 25 – September 4, 2011	HTML	40	29	24	6	Telephone	3.8%
Nanos Research	August 30 – September 1, 2011	PDF	31.9	35.4	22.8	4.1	Telephone	3.1%
Forum Research	August 29–30, 2011	HTML	30	35	26	7	Interactive voice response	2.0%
Angus Reid	August 25–28, 2011	PDF	31	38	24	6	Online	3.1%
Nanos Research	August 10–13, 2011	PDF	37.6	42.1	16.2	3.4	Telephone	3.4%
Ipsos Reid	July 29 – August 4, 2011	HTML	36	38	23	3	Telephone	4.9%
Forum Research	July 27–28, 2011	HTML	28	38	24	7	Interactive voice response	2.1%
Ipsos Reid	June 7 – July 7, 2011	HTML	31	42	22	5	Telephone	3.5%
Forum Research	June 21–22, 2011	HTML	26	41	22	8	Interactive voice response	1.7%
Ipsos Reid	May 17 – June 9, 2011	HTML	34	40	20	6	Telephone	3.5%
Nanos Research	May 14–15, 2011	PDF	34	41	19	5	Telephone	4.7%
Nanos Research	March 8–11, 2011	PDF	35	44	16	4	Telephone	4.9%
Nanos Research	January 31 – February 3, 2011	PDF	39	43	13	5	Telephone	4.7%
Ipsos Reid	January 20, 2011	HTML	35	38	17	9	Telephone
Ipsos Reid	November 18, 2010	HTML	32	41	20	7
Angus Reid	September 28, 2010	PDF	29	41	22	8	Online	3.5%
Ipsos Reid	August 21, 2010	HTML	35	36	18	11
Ipsos Reid	June 19, 2010	HTML	37	32	20	11
Nanos Research	February 9–10, 2010	PDF	41.4	37.9	12.8	7.9	Telephone	4.9%
Ipsos Reid	December 13, 2009	HTML	38	34	15	10
Angus Reid	December 4, 2009	PDF	27	41	20	11
Nanos Research	October 24–25, 2009	PDF	36.6	35	17.2	9.8	Telephone	4.8%
Environics	October 2009	HTML	32	37	19	11
Environics	June 2009	HTML	44	32	15	8
Environics	April 2009	HTML	44	29	17	11
Environics	January 2009	HTML	45	32	12	11
Environics	November 2008	HTML	35	30	21	13
Environics	June 2008	HTML	41	31	16	12
Environics	March 2008	HTML	38	30	19	12
Environics	January 2008	HTML	45	34	18	2
Environics	November 2007	HTML	44	31	22	3
Election 2007	October 10, 2007	PDF	42.3	31.6	16.8	8.0

Media endorsements

Liberals

• Barrie Advance ^[25]
• The Globe and Mail ^[26]
• Hamilton Spectator ^[27]
• Ottawa Citizen ^[28]
• Sudbury Star ^[29]
• Toronto Star ^[30]
• Waterloo Region Record ^[31]
• Windsor Star ^[32]

Progressive Conservatives

• Brampton Guardian ^[33]
• Metroland Durham Region Media Group ^[34]
• National Post ^[35]

Did not endorse

• Toronto Sun,^[36] Ottawa Sun ^[37]

References

1. "Ontario election turnout hits record low". CBC.ca. October 7, 2011. Retrieved 2011-10-07.
2. "Election Statute Law Amendment Act, 2005". Service Ontario e-laws. December 15, 2005. Retrieved May 19, 2008.
3. Robert Benzie and Susan Delacourt. "Ontario cabinet minister to seek federal seat." Toronto Star. http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/907928--ontario-cabinet-minister-to-seek-federal-seat
4. Benzie, Robert (June 4, 2011). "Retiring Liberal MPP Bruce Crozier dead". The Toronto Star (Toronto). Retrieved June 6, 2011.
5. "Elections Ontario - When to Vote". Wemakevotingeasy.ca. 2011-09-30. Retrieved 2011-10-07.
6. "Ontario leaders' debate set for Sept. 27". CBC.ca. September 2, 2011. Retrieved 2011-09-02.
7. "Longtime Pickering politician calls it quits". Pickering News Advertiser.
8. CTV staff (November 29, 2010). "Liberal MPP Bruce Crozier retires". CTV Ottawa (Ottawa). Retrieved June 6, 2011.
9. Liberal MPP Caplan not running again "Toronto Star"
10. Examiner staff (January 21, 2011). "Aileen Carroll won't seek a second term". The Barrie Examiner (Barrie, ON). Retrieved June 6, 2011.
11. QMI Agency (November 25, 2010). "Hoy won't seek re-election". London Free Press (London, ON). Retrieved June 6, 2011.
12. Sherwin, Fred (April 13, 2011). "Veteran MPP calls it a day after 41 years in politics". Orléans Online (Ottawa). Retrieved June 6, 2011.
13. Chant, Miranda (November 9, 2011). "Elgin-Middlesex-London MPP Calls it Quits". News/Talk 1290 CJBK (London, ON). Retrieved June 6, 2011.
14. The Canadian Press (March 25, 2011). "Veteran MPP Gerry Phillips the latest Ontario Liberal not seeking re-election". iPolitics.ca. Retrieved June 6, 2011.
15. Benzie, Robert; Rob Ferguson (June 10, 2011). "Liberals lose a star: Sandra Pupatello won’t seek re-election". Toronto Star (Toronto). Retrieved June 10, 2011.
16. Blizzard, Christine (January 13, 2011). "MPP David Ramsay won't run again". The Toronto Sun (Toronto). Retrieved June 6, 2011.
17. Liberal backbencher Tony Ruprecht won’t seek re-election "Toronto Star"
18. Cramer, Brandi (November 19, 2011). "Smith steps aside: MPP recalls her accomplishments and regrets". North Bay Nugget (North Bay, ON). Retrieved June 6, 2011.
19. Nugget, Carol-Ann (October 14, 2010). "MPP Gerry Martiniuk to retire from provincial politics in 2011". Cambridge Now (Cambridge, ON). Retrieved June 6, 2011.
20. Benzie, Robert (July 5, 2010). "Conservative MPP Bill Murdoch to ride off into the sunset". The Toronto Star (Toronto). Retrieved June 6, 2011.
21. The Canadian Press (February 21, 2011). "MPP Savoline will not seek re-election". The Hamilton Spectator (Hamilton). Retrieved June 6, 2011.
22. "Veteran Ontario MPP Norm Sterling loses bitter PC nomination battle ". Globe and Mail.
23. Talaga, Tanya (June 3, 2011). "NDP's Peter Kormos to retire". The Toronto Star (Toronto). Retrieved June 3, 2011.
24. Robert, Benzie (July 30, 2011). "Former NDP leader Howard Hampton quits". The Toronto Star (Toronto). Retrieved July 30, 2011.
25. http://www.simcoe.com/opinion/editorial/article/1136757--liberals-deserve-another-term
26. Canada. "Dalton McGuinty's Liberals the best choice for Ontario's challenges". Toronto: The Globe and Mail. Retrieved 2011-10-07.
27. "Liberals, despite faults, are the best option". TheSpec. Retrieved 2011-10-07.
28. Ottawa Citizen October 4, 2011. "Hold your nose and vote Liberal". Ottawacitizen.com. Retrieved 2011-10-07.
29. "Liberals best fit for Sudbury - Point of View - The Sudbury Star - Ontario, CA". The Sudbury Star. 2011-10-03. Retrieved 2011-10-07.
30. "Liberals best choice for Ontario’s future". Toronto: thestar.com. September 30, 2011. Retrieved 2011-10-07.
31. "Editorial: Liberals offer voters best hope". TheRecord. 2011-09-30. Retrieved 2011-10-07.
32. The Windsor Star October 1, 2011 (2011-10-01). "Ontario votes". Windsorstar.com. Retrieved 2011-10-07.
33. "EDITORIAL: Vote for change". BramptonGuardian Article. 2011-09-29. Retrieved 2011-10-07.
34. "Progressive Conservatives the party to lead Ontario". DurhamRegion Article. 2011-09-29. Retrieved 2011-10-07.
35. "On Thursday, Ontarians should vote Conservative". Nationalpost.com. 2011-10-03. Retrieved 2011-10-07.
36. "Ontario deserves better | Editorial | Opinion". Toronto Sun. Retrieved 2011-10-07.
37. "Editorial: None of the above | Editorial | Opinion". Ottawa Sun. 2011-10-01. Retrieved 2011-10-07.

External links

• Elections Ontario
• Elections Ontario, 2011 General Election
• Election Almanac - Ontario Provincial Election 2011
• Detailed interactive map of poll-level results