2014–16 El Niño event

2014–16 El Niño event

The SST Anomalies Average for 11 October 2015 to 7 November 2015
Formed Summer 2014[1]
Dissipated Summer 2016[1]
Damage Significant
Areas affected The Pacific Ocean and surrounding areas

The 2014–16 El Niño is an ongoing warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, that has resulted in unusually warm waters developing between the coast of South America and the International Date Line. These unusually warm waters are influencing the world's weather, with more tropical cyclones occurring in the Pacific Ocean and fewer in the Atlantic Ocean.

Meteorological progression

The 1997–98 El Niño event was regarded as one of the strongest El Niño events in recorded history, which resulted in widespread drought, flooding and other natural disasters occurring across the globe.[2] Afterwards the climate of the Pacific Ocean was dominated by a cool phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation, with three significant La Niña events occurring between 1998–2001, 2007–09 and 2010-12.[3][4][5] Despite the La Niña background to the Pacific Climate, four El Niño events occurred during 2002–03, 2004–05, 2006–07, and 2009–10, but each was weaker and had shorter impacts than the 1997-98 event.[4][6] After the 2010–12 La Niña event had ended, near-neutral conditions persisted over the Pacific Ocean with no La Niña or El Niño events occurring.[7] An intense burst of typhoon activity subsequently took place between September and November 2013, which was thought to possibly be a precursor signal to an impending change of the Pacific climate towards El Niño rather than La Niña.[4]

Between January and April 2014, the climate of the Pacific Ocean started to exhibit features, which suggested to meteorologists, the impending onset of an El Niño event.[8] Over the ocean, these features included: a rapid fall of the sea level in western Micronesia, as well as a large area of enhanced sea surface temperatures, at low latitudes near the International Date Line.[4] In the atmosphere these features included persistent westerly winds at equatorial latitudes, which were displaced eastwards towards the Marshall Islands.[4] A large area of atmospheric convection at a low latitude near the International Dateline, in association with the development, of an unusual amount of early season tropical cyclones near the Marshall Islands.[4] After surveying various climate models, the World Meteorological Organization started to warn during January 2014, that there was an enhanced possibility of a weak El Niño event happening during 2014.[9] As a result of some of these conditions, an El Niño Watch[nb 1] was issued by the United States Climate Prediction Center (CPC) during their March 2014 diagnostic discussion.[11][12]

Over the next few months the atmosphere failed to respond in order to reinforce the developing El Niño, with the monsoon trough being weak, tropical cyclone activity slowing, while no episodes of strong westerly winds at a low latitude occurred.[8] Some of the oceanic indicators of El Niño also did not develop or advance further, with a cooling of sea and sub surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific occurring.[8][13] However, by the end of 2014, several of the El Niño indexes that were used to judge the state of the ENSO cycle, indicated that a weak El Nino conditions had developed over the Pacific Ocean.[14] As a result a few of the international meteorological agencies, including the Japan Meteorological Agency reported that an El Niño event had developed during 2014.[14][15] At this time it was thought that the state of the Pacific climate, would continue to hover at the borderline El Nino conditions before easing back into neutral ENSO conditions.[16] However, after Typhoon Higos developed during February 2015, a new forecast scenario opened: El Niño might strengthen and persist through 2015.[16] This scenario was supported by the same climate features that had predicted the weak El Niño developing during 2014. During early March, a major westerly wind burst occurred which led to the formation of Tropical Storm Bavi and Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam.

By January 2015, westerly wind burst activity starting picking up again. The first Kelvin wave developed around March and another formed around May. In addition, another strong westerly wind burst event took place around July in result from twin cyclones between the equator. An even stronger event in October, and an ongoing unusually stronger event during late December 2015 into January 2016, also as a result from twin cyclones from either side of the equator. March and May 2015 both NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology respectively confirmed the arrival of weak El Niño conditions.[17][18] El Niño conditions were forecast in July to intensify into strong conditions by fall and winter of 2015.[19][20] In July the NOAA CPC expected a greater than 90% chance that El Niño would continue through the 2015-2016 winter and more than 80% chance to last into the 2016 spring. In addition to the warmer than normal waters generated by the El Niño conditions, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation was also creating persistently higher than normal sea surface temperatures in the northeastern Pacific.[21][22] In August, the NOAA CPC predicted that the 2015 El Niño "could be among the strongest in the historical record dating back to 1950."[23] In mid November, NOAA reported that the temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region for the 3 month average from August to October 2015 was the 2nd warmest on record with only 1997 warmer.[24]

In August 2015, the CPC reported that this year's El Niño as one of the strongest on record.[25] August 2015 monthly sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region already nudged slightly ahead of 1997 values for the warmest in the modern era.[26]

In January 2016, NOAA noted that the 3 month average from October to December 2015 tied 1997 for the strongest El Niño event reading on record.[27] By March 2016, the El Niño had begun to steadily weaken, with NOAA forecasters noting the possibility of La Niña by fall 2016.


Effects on tropical cyclone activity

The 2014–16 El Niño event influenced tropical cyclone activity around the world, where it contributed to record breaking seasons in the Central Pacific and Australian tropical cyclone basins. Within the Atlantic Ocean; producing strong vertical wind shear, increased atmospheric stability, stronger sinking motion and drier air across the tropical Atlantic.[28] The El Niño event also influenced activity within the Pacific Ocean, with the Central Pacific basin having its most active tropical cyclone season on record with 16 tropical cyclones recorded during 2015.[28][29] Within the Southern Hemisphere, the El Niño pushed tropical cyclone activity in the South Pacific Ocean eastwards, with activity flourishing near Vanuatu, Fiji and Tonga.[30][31] As a result of this displacement and other factors such as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, the 2015–16 Australian region cyclone season was the least active since reliable records started during 1969, with only three named tropical cyclones developing in the region compared to an average of eleven.[30][31]

The event also contributed to six systems forming outside of the season boundaries, within the North Atlantic, Eastern and Southern Pacific basins. These systems included Tropical Cyclone Raquel which was considered by some to be a part of the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons, but was later confirmed to only be a part of the 2014-15 season.[32][33] Tropical Depressions 01F and 02F developed in the South Pacific during July and October 2015, with both impacting the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. Tropical Depression Nine-C subsequently formed in the Central Pacific on 30 December, which in turn contributed to the development of Hurricane Pali on 7 January after it had dissipated during 1 January. This also caused the latest end and earliest start to the 2015 and 2016 Pacific hurricane seasons. The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season also got off to an early start with Hurricane Alex, which formed on 13 January in the North-eastern Atlantic.

Other significant tropical cyclones during the event included: Severe Tropical Cyclones Pam and Winston, Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Fantala and Hurricane Patricia.

Impact

The El Niño event had an impact on millions of people around the world, including in Africa, Central America, South-east Asia and the Pacific Islands.[34] These impacts included below or above-average rainfall, flooding, increased food insecurity, higher malnutrition rates and devastated livelihoods.[34] More than 60 million people face hunger, malnutrition in 2016 due to drought effects influenced by ENSO, with Africa worst hit, Indochina facing severe drop in food production, and Ethiopia counting 10 million people at risk.[35]

Micronesia

As the El Niño conditions started to develop during early 2014 sea levels in western Micronesia including in waters surrounding Palau and Guam dropped by 6–9 feet (1.8–2.7 m).[4]

South Africa

The severe reduction in rainfall lead to many livestock deaths in the Free State province of South Africa. It is also having an adverse effect on maize production in South Africa as the region is one of the country's leading maize producers.

New Zealand

The 2014–2016 El Niño was expected to be as serious as the 1997–1998 El Niño in New Zealand, with drier weather in summer, a cooler winter and a stormy and windy spring. Agriculture will be significantly affected, with rainfall reduced by 15% on the East Coast of both islands, and increased on the West Coast.[36][37][38]

Philippines

In the Philippines, effects of El Niño will continue from the middle of 2015 to 2016, and many provinces will experience drought until April 2016.[39] On Maguindanao, many rice and corn fields are destroyed by the drought brought by El Niño, and soon, the provincial government declared a state of calamity on the province.[40] Earlier, North Cotabato declared a state of calamity,[41] and the provincial government's aid to the farmers suffering from the drought caused a protest and a clash with police in Kidapawan.[42]

Other provinces that declared state of calamity are as follows:

United States

During the winter of 2014-15, the typical precipitation and impacts of an El Niño event, did not occur over the United States, as the event was weak and on the borderline of being an event.[47]

In January 2016, Pacifica, California declared a local emergency after El Niño storms damaged the coastline and bluff, forcing residents of the nearby apartment to evacuate due to the crumbling cliffside.[48]

In April 2016, the city of Houston, Texas suffered excessive rainfall and flooding, which have been linked to El Niño.[49][50]

Notes

  1. ↑ An El Nino watch is issued by the Climate Prediction Center when conditions are favourable for the development of an El Niño within the next six months.[10]

References

  1. 1 2 "Historical ENSO events". Japan Meteorological Agency. June 17, 2015. Retrieved May 2, 2016.
  2. ↑ "3. The strong 1997-98 El Niño and transition to a La Niña episode". United States Climate Prediction Center. May 14, 1999. Archived from the original on March 21, 2016.
  3. ↑ "Historical El Niño/La Niña episodes (1950-present)". United States Climate Prediction Center. 4 November 2015. Retrieved 10 January 2015.
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "Pacific ENSO Update: Special Editon" (PDF) 20 (SB1). United States Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Applications Climate Center. 26 August 2014. Archived from the original on 31 December 2015.
  5. ↑ "La Niña – Detailed Australian Analysis". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Retrieved 10 January 2015.
  6. ↑ "El Niño — Detailed Australian Analysis". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Retrieved 10 January 2015.
  7. ↑ El Niño/La Niña Update: April 2014 (PDF) (Report). World Meteorological Organization. 15 April 2014. Archived from the original on 10 January 2016.
  8. 1 2 3 "Pacific ENSO Update: 3rd Quarter 2014" (PDF) 20 (3). United States Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Applications Climate Center. 26 August 2014. Archived from the original on 31 December 2015.
  9. ↑ El Niño/La Niña Update: January 2014 (PDF) (Report). World Meteorological Organization. 30 January 2014.
  10. ↑ ENSO Alert System (Report). United States Climate Prediction Center. March 6, 2014. Archived from the original on March 22, 2016.
  11. ↑ El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion: March 2014 (PDF) (Report). United States Climate Prediction Center. 6 March 2014. Archived from the original on 10 January 2016.
  12. ↑ Becker, Emily (7 May 2014). "ENSO Blog: 8 May ENSO Diagnostic Discussion". ENSO Blog. Archived from the original on 10 January 2016.
  13. ↑ Climate Services Division (August 18, 2015). Fiji Annual Climate Summary 2014 (Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 25, 2015. Retrieved August 25, 2015.
  14. 1 2 "Pacific ENSO Update: 1st Quarter 2015" (PDF) 21 (1). United States Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Applications Climate Center. March 3, 2015. Archived from the original on 19 March 2016.
  15. ↑ "First El Niño in five years declared by Japan's weather bureau". Archived from the original on 15 March 2016. Retrieved 10 January 2016.
  16. 1 2 "Pacific ENSO Update: 2nd Quarter 2015" (PDF) 21 (2). United States Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Applications Climate Center. May 29, 2015. Archived from the original on March 19, 2016.
  17. ↑ "Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion". Cpc.noaa.gov. 9 July 2015. Retrieved 28 July 2015.
  18. ↑ "ENSO Wrap-Up" (PDF). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 12 May 2015. Retrieved 28 July 2015.
  19. ↑ "El Niño is officially back, and looks stronger than ever". OregonLive.com. Retrieved 28 July 2015.
  20. ↑ "Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion". Web.archive.org. Archived from the original on 14 June 2015. Retrieved 28 July 2015.
  21. ↑ "NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory — July 2015 Ocean Temperatures". Nnvl.noaa.gov. 21 July 2015. Retrieved 28 July 2015.
  22. ↑ Central, Andrea Thompson,Climate. "How This Year's El Niño Compares to the Past". Retrieved 23 July 2015.
  23. ↑ Bremner, Charles (15 August 2015). "‘Godzilla’ El Niño is strongest in 50 years". The Times (London, UK). Retrieved 15 August 2015. (subscription required (help)).
  24. ↑ "November El Niño update: It’s a small world - NOAA Climate.gov".
  25. ↑ "El Niño Will Be Big, But It Probably Won't Kill the Drought". Wired.com. Retrieved 11 September 2015.
  26. ↑ "A Strong El Niño Is Here, and Likely To Last Through Winter and Spring, NOAA Says — weather.com". Weather.com. Retrieved 11 September 2015.
  27. ↑ "Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring & Data: ENSO Impacts on the U.S. - Previous Events". Retrieved 25 January 2016.
  28. 1 2 "Below-normal Atlantic hurricane season ends; active eastern and central Pacific seasons shatter records".
  29. ↑ "Tropical Weather Summary for the Central North Pacific: January 2016". United States Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
  30. 1 2 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/3-cyclones-mark-slowest-tropic/56967800
  31. 1 2 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-20/el-nino-tames-australian-cyclones-as-46-year-old-mark-to-fall
  32. ↑ Australian Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2014–15 (PDF) (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 23 October 2015. pp. 1–4. Retrieved 16 November 2015.
  33. ↑ Vagell, Quincy. "Top 10 Most Unusual Tropical Weather Events of 2015 #10: Earliest and Latest Cyclone on Record in the South Pacific". The Weather Channel. Archived from the original on 26 July 2015. Retrieved 30 January 2016.
  34. 1 2 "El Niño CERF-funded response in 2015-2016" (PDF). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. 1 April 2016. Retrieved 19 April 2016.
  35. ↑ "El Nino Is Over But the Damage Continues More than 60 million people face hunger, malnutrition.". Circle of Blue. 19 Apr 2016.
  36. ↑ "El Nino predicted to give farmers a rough ride over spring and summer". Stuff (Fairfax). 28 August 2015.
  37. ↑ "El Nino means cooler stormy weather on the cards for New Zealand". Stuff (Fairfax). 13 May 2015.
  38. ↑ "El Nino and La Nina in New Zealand". NIWA. 2015.
  39. ↑ De Vera, Ellalyn (January 6, 2016). "Dire consecuences of El Niño expected until mid-2016". Manila Bulletin. Retrieved February 20, 2016. The impact of the ongoing strong El Niño phenomenon will likely linger until mid-2016, with 85 percent of provinces expected to suffer from drought by end of April, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
  40. ↑ Unson, John (February 5, 2016). "Maguindanao farmers lose crops due to El Niño". Philstar Global (Philstar). Philippine Star. Retrieved February 20, 2016.
  41. ↑ Magbanua, Williamor. "Cotabato in state of calamity due to El Nino, rat infestation". GMA News Online. GMA News. Retrieved April 14, 2016.
  42. ↑ Velez, Tyron (April 3, 2016). "Explaining the barricade,El Nino, negligence, and suppression". Sun.Star (Davao). Retrieved April 14, 2016. But the farmers would not take this offer, finding that a measly three kilos for a month can only last for two to three days. With crops invisible in the dry land, they wanted to see sacks of rice brought out in their presence so they can take it home.
  43. ↑ Nepumoceno, Jezza A. (March 17, 2016). "El Niño costs Iloilo P805M in agri damage". Sun.Star (Iloilo). Retrieved April 14, 2016.
  44. ↑ "Guimaras under state of calamity due to El Niño". Sun.Star (Iloilo). March 9, 2016. Retrieved April 14, 2016.
  45. ↑ Adlaw, Jerry N. (April 8, 2016). "GenSan declares state of calamity". The Manila Times. Retrieved April 14, 2016.
  46. 1 2 3 4 5 Binaday, Gabrielle H. (April 7, 2016). "El Niño damage hits P10 million". The Standard. Retrieved April 14, 2016. Of the 23 affected areas, seven provinces have declared a state of calamity according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. These are Isabela, Quirino, Bukidnon, Davao del Sur, Cotabato, Maguindanao and Basilan.
  47. ↑ Barnston, Anthony (12 June 2014). "With El Niño likely, what climate impacts are favored for this summer?". ENSO Blog. Archived from the original on 6 May 2016.
  48. ↑ Rocha, Veronica (26 January 2016). "El Niño storms erode Pacifica bluff as homes teeter on the edge". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 26 January 2016.
  49. ↑ http://thescoopblog.dallasnews.com/2016/04/severe-flooding-in-houston-area-triggers-school-closures-evacuations.html/
  50. ↑ http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/USA-Update/2016/0418/Flash-floods-in-Texas-Why-do-massive-downpours-impact-Houston-video
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