2016 Atlantic hurricane season

2016 Atlantic hurricane season
Season summary map
First system formed January 13, 2016
Last system dissipated Season ongoing
Strongest storm1 Alex – 981 mbar (hPa) (28.97 inHg), 85 mph (140 km/h)
Total depressions 1
Total storms 1
Hurricanes 1
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+) 0
Total fatalities 1 indirect
Total damage Unknown
1Strongest storm is determined by lowest pressure
Atlantic hurricane seasons
2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018
Related article

The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season is a current event in the annual tropical cyclone season in the northern hemisphere. The season officially begins on June 1, 2016, and will end on November 30, 2016. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However, as illustrated by Hurricane Alex, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year. This season started exceptionally early, nearly five months before the official start, with Hurricane Alex forming in the Northeastern Atlantic in mid-January.

To this point, most forecasting groups have called for this season to be anywhere from near-normal to hyperactive, due to a combination of factors including a possible transition to La Niña conditions as well as uncertainty about the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

Seasonal forecasts

Record Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes		 Ref
Average (1981-2010): 12.1 6.4 2.7 [1]
Record high activity: 2005: 28 2005: 15 2005: 7 [2]
Record low activity: 1914: 1 1914: 0 2013: 0 [2]
Date Source Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes		 Ref
December 16, 2015 TSR 13 5 2 [3]
April 5, 2016 TSR 12 6 2 [4]
April 14, 2016 CSU 13 6 2 [5]
April 15, 2016 NCSU 15-18 8-11 3-5 [6]
Actual activity: 1 1 0

Ahead of and during the season, several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of the University College London, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year.[3] Some of these forecasts also take into consideration what happened in previous seasons and the predicted weakening of the 2014–16 El Niño event.[3] On average, an Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained twelve tropical storms, six hurricanes, two major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 66–103 units.[1]

The first forecast for the year was issued by CSU on December 11, who anticipated that one of four different scenarios could occur.[7] TSR subsequently issued their first outlook for the 2016 season during December 16, 2015 and predicted that activity would be about 20% below the 1950–2015 average, or about 15% below the 2005–2015 average.[3] Specifically they thought that there would be 13 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 79 units.[3] A few months later, TSR issued their second prediction for the season during April 6, 2016 and lowered the predicted number of named storms to 12 but raised the number of hurricanes to 6.[4] On April 14, CSU predicted that the season would be near-normal, predicting 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes with ACE near 93. [8] On April 15, North Carolina State University predicted the season would be very active, with 15-18 named storms, 8-11 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes.

Seasonal summary

Hurricane Alex (2016) Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, as of Alex's final advisory, is 3.21 units.[nb 1]

Storms

Hurricane Alex

Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
Duration January 13 – January 15
Peak intensity 85 mph (140 km/h) (1-min)  981 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Hurricane Alex (2016)

On January 7, the National Hurricane Center noted the potential for an extratropical low about 425 mi (685 km) west-southwest of Bermuda to gain subtropical or tropical characteristics over subsequent days, as it tracked across the central Atlantic.[9] Convection began to coalesce near the center of the low on January 13,[10] leading to the formation of Subtropical Storm Alex about 785 miles (1,260 km) south-southwest of the Azores, at 21:00 UTC. Alex is the first tropical or subtropical storm to form in January since 1978, and only the fourth known tropical or subtropical cyclone formation during the month on record.[11][12] When Alex became a hurricane at 15:00 UTC on January 14, it marked only the second recorded hurricane formation in January, with the other being Hurricane One in 1938.[13][nb 2] On January 15, the NHC issued its last advisory on Hurricane Alex, as the system transitioned back into an extratropical cyclone.[14] On January 17, Alex was absorbed by another extratropical cyclone, in the southern Labrador Sea.[15]

Storm names

The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2016. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2017. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2022 season. This is the same list used in the 2010 season, with the exception of Ian and Tobias, which replaced Igor and Tomas, respectively.[16]

  • Alex
  • Bonnie (unused)
  • Colin (unused)
  • Danielle (unused)
  • Earl (unused)
  • Fiona (unused)
  • Gaston (unused)
  • Hermine (unused)
  • Ian (unused)
  • Julia (unused)
  • Karl (unused)
  • Lisa (unused)
  • Matthew (unused)
  • Nicole (unused)
  • Otto (unused)
  • Paula (unused)
  • Richard (unused)
  • Shary (unused)
  • Tobias (unused)
  • Virginie (unused)
  • Walter (unused)

Season effects

This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in 2016 USD.

Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2016 North Atlantic tropical cyclone statistics
Storm
name		 Dates active Storm category

at peak intensity

 Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h)		 Min.
press.
(mbar)		 Areas affected Damage
(millions USD)		 Deaths
Alex January 13 – 15 Category 1 hurricane 85 (140) 981 Bermuda, Azores Minimal (1)
Season Aggregates
1 cyclones January 13 – Season ongoing   85 (140) 981 Minimal (1)

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ The totals represent the sum of the squares for every (sub)tropical storm's intensity of over 33 knots (38 mph, 61 km/h), divided by 10,000. Calculations are provided at Talk:2016 Atlantic hurricane season/ACE calcs.
  2. ↑ Whole oceanic coverage has only been available since the onset of satellite imagery, prior to this similar developments over the ocean may not have been detected or reported. The 1938 hurricane was confirmed by ship reports.

References

  1. 1 2 "Background Information: The North Atlantic Hurricane Season". Climate Prediction Center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. August 9, 2012. Retrieved December 13, 2013.
  2. 1 2 National Hurricane Center; Hurricane Research Division (February 17, 2016). "Atlantic hurricane best track (HURDAT version 2)". United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved May 1, 2016.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 Mark Saunders; Adam Lea (December 16, 2015). Extended Range Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016 (PDF) (Report). London, United Kingdom: Tropical Storm Risk. Retrieved December 18, 2015.
  4. 1 2 Mark Saunders; Adam Lea (April 5, 2016). April Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016 (PDF) (Report). London, United Kingdom: Tropical Storm Risk. Retrieved April 5, 2016.
  5. ↑ http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2016/apr2016/apr2016.pdf
  6. ↑ https://news.ncsu.edu/2016/04/hurricane-2016/
  7. ↑ Phillip J. Klotzbach; William M. Gray (December 11, 2015). "Qualitative Discussion of Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Activity for 2016" (PDF). Colorado State University. Retrieved April 9, 2016.
  8. ↑ http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2016/apr2016/apr2016.pdf
  9. ↑ Michael J. Brennan (January 7, 2016). "Special Tropical Weather Outlook valid 325 pm EST Thu Jan 7 2016". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved January 13, 2016.
  10. ↑ Richard J. Pasch (January 7, 2016). "Special Tropical Weather Outlook valid 105 pm EST Wed Jan 13 2016". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved January 13, 2016.
  11. ↑ Richard J. Pasch (January 13, 2016). "Subtropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 1". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved January 13, 2016.
  12. ↑ Petersen, Bo. "2016 hurricane season gets very early start". The Post And Courier. The Post And Courier. Retrieved 13 January 2016.
  13. ↑ Wood, Tony. "Alex makes hurricane history". philly.com. Inquirer Weather Columnist. Retrieved 14 January 2016.
  14. ↑ "Post-Tropical Cyclone ALEX Public Advisory".
  15. ↑ Frank S. Musonda (January 17, 2016). High Seas Forecast for MetArea IV (Report). Ocean Prediction Center. Retrieved January 17, 2016.
  16. ↑ Tropical Cyclone Naming History and Retired Names. National Hurricane Center (Report) (Miami, Florida: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). April 11, 2013. Retrieved April 22, 2013.

External links

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