2016 North Korean nuclear test

2016 North Korea nuclear test
Information
Country	North Korea
Test site	41°18′29″N 129°02′56″E / 41.308°N 129.049°ECoordinates: 41°18′29″N 129°02′56″E / 41.308°N 129.049°E,[1] Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site, Kilju County
Period	10:00:01, 6 January 2016 UTC+08:30 (01:30:01 UTC)[1]
Number of tests	1
Test type	Underground
Device type	Hydrogen according to the DPRK, fission according to the South Korean National Intelligence Service
Max. yield	Not announced by DPRK, estimated at least 7 kilotons similar to the 2013 test due to the same magnitude scale as the previous test.
Navigation
Previous test	2013 test

North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear detonation on 6 January 2016 at 10:00:01 UTC+08:30. At the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site, approximately 50 kilometres (30 miles) northwest of Kilju City in Kilju County, an underground nuclear test was carried out. The United States Geological Service reported a 5.1 magnitude earthquake from the location; the China Earthquake Networks Center reported the magnitude as 4.9.

North Korean media made announcements that the regime had successfully tested a hydrogen bomb. However third-party experts—as well as officials and agencies in South Korea—doubted North Korea's claims and contend that the device was more likely to have been a fission bomb such as a boosted fission weapon. Such weapons use hydrogen fusion to produce smaller, lighter warheads suitable for arming a delivery device such as a missile, rather than to attain the destructive power of a true hydrogen bomb.

Background

North Korea (officially the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, or DPRK) had previously conducted three underground nuclear tests in 2006, 2009, and 2013, drawing sanctions from the United Nations Security Council.^[2][3][4]

The presidents of the United States and South Korea urged North Korea to rejoin the six-party talks in October 2015. The presidents also warned North Korea against a fourth nuclear test.^[5]

In December 2015 North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong-un suggested that the country had the capacity to launch a hydrogen bomb, a device of considerably more power than conventional atomic bombs used in previous tests.^[6] The remark was met with skepticism from the White House and South Korean officials.^[7] Around this time, the country approached the United States about possible peace talks to end the Korean War.^[8]

In a New Year's Day speech, Kim Jong-un warned that provocation from "invasive outsiders" would be met with a "holy war of justice".^[9]

North Korean claims

Order to prepare the test signed by Kim Jong-un on 15 December 2015, the month before the test

The North Korean government described the test as a "complete success"^[3] and characterized it as self-defense against the United States.^[2] North Korean media claimed that the bomb existed the month before the test was carried out.^[10]

Official state media from the DPRK announced the test. The Korean Central Television (KCTV) said that "the U.S. has gathered forces hostile to [the] DPRK and raised a slanderous human rights issue to hinder [the] DPRK's improvement. It is [therefore] just to have [an] H-bomb as self-defense against the U.S. having numerous and humongous nuclear weapons. The DPRK's fate must not be protected by any forces but [the] DPRK itself".^[11] The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) further stated that "The H-bomb test conducted by the DPRK was a measure for self-defence to thoroughly protect the sovereignty of the country and vital rights of the nation from the daily-growing nuclear threat and blackmail by the hostile forces and reliably guarantee peace on the Korean Peninsula and security of the region … The Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq and the Gaddafi regime in Libya could not escape the fate of destruction after being deprived of their foundations for nuclear development and giving up nuclear programs of their own accord, yielding to the pressure of the US and the West keen on their regime changes",^[12] adding that a "bitter lesson" should be drawn from those events. The regime also defended the nuclear weapons programmes of the DPRK, saying that the programme will be abandoned only if "the US rolls back its outrageous hostile policy toward the DPRK and imperialist aggression forces give up their infringement upon sovereignty by use of force in the international arena."^[12]

Ri Chun-hee, the television news anchor who announced the deaths of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, emerged from retirement to announce the H-bomb test to both the domestic and international audience.^[13]

Skepticism of the hydrogen bomb claim

The earthquake caused by the 2016 nuclear test was 5.1 magnitude,^[2][14] similar to the 5.1-magnitude earthquake that accompanied North Korea's previous 2013 nuclear test (which was estimated by South Korea to have a yield of 6–9 kilotons of TNT and Russian estimates of more than 7 kilotons of TNT).^[15][16]

Won-Young Kim at the Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory explained it "was more powerful than North Korea’s previous nuclear test" and added that it is difficult to quantify "the exact size of North Korea’s nuclear detonations because the depth of the explosive device, properties of the rock surrounding the explosion and other factors influence the seismic measurements produced" because North Korea does not publicize the depth of its tests, although the material at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site is thought to be hard granite.^[17]

The tremors were felt in Changbai, Hunchun and Yanji in Jilin province in China.^[18][19] China Central Television released photos of students being evacuated in the area and stated that the ground at a local high school showed cracks.^[18] According to China's Foreign Ministry, Beijing had no advance knowledge of the test.^[18]

Although North Korea declared that the 2016 test was a "successful" demonstration of a hydrogen bomb, international experts and members of the South Korean government expressed skepticism because the explosion was too small; rather, the test may have involved only a boosted fission weapon.^[5][20]

Andre Gsponer of the Independent Scientific Research Institute at the University of Oxford said this technology has "a number of significant technical and military advantages, which explain why it is used in essentially all militarized nuclear weapons, including in India, Pakistan, and North Korea". Quick estimates of the impact of such a weapon "detonated 1,000 meters over downtown Seoul would produce 78,000 fatalities and somewhere around 270,000 estimated injuries", according to Ryan Faith of ViceNews.^[21] Analyst Zack Beauchamp of Vox points out that yield and technology in this test "won't fundamentally change the status quo in the Korean peninsula and it would be more a change in degree than in kind in military terms".^[22]

Bruce W. Bennett, senior defense analyst of the RAND Corporation research organization, is also skeptical, telling BBC News that "the bang they should have gotten would have been 10 times greater… So Kim Jong-un is either lying, saying they did a hydrogen test when they didn't, they just used a little bit more efficient fission weapon – or the hydrogen part of the test really didn't work very well or the fission part didn't work very well."^[23] After considering the seismic data which suggests a 6–9 kiloton yield, other U.S. analysts also do not believe that a hydrogen bomb was detonated. "What we're speculating is they tried to do a boosted nuclear device, which is an atomic bomb that has a little bit of hydrogen, an isotope in it called tritium," said Joseph Cirincione, president of the global security firm Ploughshares Fund.^[24]

On the other hand, John Carlson, a member of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Royal Commission and former head of the Australian Safeguards and Non-Proliferation Office declared previous North Korean tests were purely a primary stage, that is, a nuclear explosion, "and fairly low yield at that". However, in the case of this test, he added that "if it’s true, it means they have made something (of a) smaller scale, capable of being put on to a missile" and that North Korea would be aiming to develop a weapon "small enough and light enough to put on to a missile, and the usual parameters are something less than one meter in diameter, and less than a tonne in weight".

Admiral Bill Gortney, head of US Northern Command and the North American Aerospace Defense Command, said in October 2015 he believed North Korea had rockets with enough range to hit the continental US and added that "the secretive state had already developed 'miniaturised' nuclear bombs that could be fitted to these rockets".^[25][26] David Albright, former United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency nuclear inspector, on the contrary, thinks Pyongyang can miniaturize a warhead for shorter-range missiles, but not yet for intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs.^[27]

There is a clear distinction between first- and second-generation nuclear weapons, i.e. atomic and hydrogen bombs. However, virtually all second generation bombs use a few grams of deuterium-tritium gas "to ensure the reliability and safety of the nuclear fission-explosives, which can be used on their own ('boosted fission bombs'), or as primaries of two-stage thermonuclear weapons ('hydrogen bombs'). Weapons which in contemporary arsenals do not use tritium boosting have generally sub- or low-kiloton yields, and are mostly special weapons such as atomic demolition munitions". Tritium boosting is relatively easy to implement and has advantages in yield, weight, size, safety (zero or negligible yield when the tritium is not in the weapon), resistance to spontaneous fission caused by other warheads and high transparency to X-rays.^[28]

Jeffrey Lewis, expert at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, said that a boosted fission weapon is "the most likely scenario in my view, with a failed thermonuclear test a close second".^[21]

International reactions

States

•  Argentina – Through a statement by the Foreign Ministry, Argentina "strongly condemned the test carried out by North Korea", and added that the test shows the "defiant attitude of North Korea, ignoring once again the calls for a halt on such tests". As a closing statement, Argentina expressed that it hopes that North Korea "ceases its hostility toward other nations and respect the international treatment of non-proliferation".^[29]
•  Australia – Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs Julie Bishop issued a statement condemning the "provocative and dangerous behaviour of the North Korean regime" which she called^[30] "a rogue state and a continuing threat to international peace and security".^[31]
•  Bangladesh – The Foreign Ministry expressed concerns and noted the test was against Security Council Resolutions 1718, 1874, 2087 and 2094. It asked North Korea to refrain from action that would "potentially escalate the situation".^[32][33]
•  Brazil – The Foreign Ministry released a statement that condemns "strongly" the test conducted by North Korea with a hydrogen bomb. The Foreign Ministry said it had been aware of the fact with "great concern".^[34]
•  Canada – Foreign Minister Stéphane Dion issued a statement condemning the test, which he described as "reckless behaviour". Adding that it was a "violation of international agreements" he repeated that Canada "condemns the test without reservation".^[35]
•  China – Spokesperson Hua Chunying of the Chinese Foreign Ministry said the nation opposes this nuclear test.^[36] "We strongly urge the DPRK side to remain committed to its denuclearisation commitment, and stop taking any actions that would make the situation worse," she added.^[30]
•  Colombia – The Government of Colombia, through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, issued a statement condemning the test carried out by North Korea, while calling it a "threat to stability, peace, and regional, as well as global, security". The official release also made a call to cease all actions that impair peace and political stability in the Korean Peninsula.^[37]
•  France – This country called the test an "unacceptable violation" of UN resolutions and called for a strong reaction from the international community.^[30]
•  India – Indian External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Vikas Swarup said it is a matter of deep concern that Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has again acted in violation of its international commitments. India called upon DPRK to refrain from such actions, which adversely impact peace and stability in the region.^[38]
•  Italy – Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni called his Japanese counterpart to discuss "the necessary reactions of the international community" to what Rome called North Korea’s "provocation".^[39]
•  Japan – Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe described the test as a "grave defiance of international efforts toward nuclear nonproliferation" and declared that the nation would make a "firm response" to the test.^[40][41] Some analysts believe that Tokyo will consider further sanctions (a stricter trade embargo) in retaliation. Japan is within range of missiles from North Korea and is concerned about the possibility of a miniature nuclear device that could be delivered in that manner, a concept that is "scary" and Japan's "biggest threat", according to an official.^[42]
•  New Zealand – New Zealand duty minister Sam Lotu-Iiga said the action was "highly provocative and irresponsible" and that New Zealand would help the United Nations Security council "ensure there was a strong response".^[43] Lotu-Iiga said the New Zealand Government "strongly urges North Korea to cease its provocative behaviour and commit to not developing, testing or possessing nuclear weapons."^[44][45]
•  Philippines – The Department of Foreign Affairs stated that the Philippines strongly condemns any violation of UN Security Council Resolutions, which have demanded that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea should not have conducted further nuclear tests.^[46]
•  Russia – The Russian government has condemned the nuclear bomb test, calling it a "threat to national security" and "a clear violation of international law".^[47] President Vladimir Putin has given instructions to thoroughly study data of all monitoring stations, including seismic, and analyze the situation in case the information about the test is confirmed.^[48]
•  Singapore – Singapore is "gravely concerned" by the North Korean announcement on the hydrogen bomb test. In a statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it described the test as a "dangerous and provocative act with serious implications on the peace and stability of the region and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) itself".^[49]
•  Spain – Spain strongly condemned the test through a statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, described it as a "serious threat to international peace and security and to stability on the Korean Peninsula" and called upon the North Korean authorities to "fully comply with the resolutions of the United Nations and with its own commitments, bring an end to these tests and dismantle its nuclear arsenal in an irreversible manner that can be substantiated". The official statement also recalled that Spain "exercises the presidency of the Security Council Committee on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea" and expressed Spain's "determination to collaborate with the international community to provide a firm response to this unacceptable violation of the aforesaid resolutions".^[50]
•  South Korea – President Park Geun-hye said the country would take decisive measures against any additional provocations.^[30][51] A national security official added a warning: "Our military is at a state of full readiness, and if North Korea wages provocation, there will be firm punishment."^[42] The country has discussed with the U.S. the possibility of the latter adding strategic weapons on the Korean peninsula.^[52]
•  Taiwan – The Taiwanese government published a statement that strongly condemned North Korea's action and expressed serious concern about it.^[53]
•  United Kingdom – Foreign secretary Phillip Hammond said the country "strongly oppose[s] the acquisition or testing of nuclear weapons by North Korea and ... [we] want to see a resumption of the six-party talks."^[51]
•  United States – The United States stated it would respond to provocations and called on North Korea to abide by its international commitments and obligations.^[54] A statement from the White House made a general statement that the country would proceed in an appropriate manner in response to provocations in order to defend its allies.^[51] A Boeing WC-135 Constant Phoenix atmospheric collections aircraft will be used to determine whether the claimed nuclear detonation was a hydrogen bomb detonation.^[55] On 9 January, a US B-52 bomber, accompanied by US and South Korean fighters, flew over South Korea in a show of force.^[56]
•  Vietnam – Foreign Ministry spokesman Le Hai Binh re-affirmed Vietnam's consistent position of supporting a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, comprehensive ban against nuclear testing, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, and working toward nuclear disarmament.^[57]

Organizations

•  European Union – The European Commission called the test a "grave violation" of UN resolutions.^[51]
•  NATO – This organization said the test "undermines regional and international security, and is in clear breach of UN Security Council resolutions" and added that the country should not have nuclear weapons.^[30]
• The Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization described this test as a wake-up call for those countries that have yet to sign the treaty (India and Pakistan) to do so and for other members (United States, Iran, Israel, Egypt and China) to agree to its ratification.^[51]
•  United Nations – The Security Council held an emergency session on 6 January 2016 to discuss the legitimacy and consequences of the nuclear test.^[58] Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon considers the test "profoundly destabilizing for regional security".^[59] Subsequently, the Council said it would be developing new measures, presumably additional trade and travel sanctions, against North Korea.^[60]

See also

• List of nuclear weapons tests of North Korea
• List of states with nuclear weapons
• Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

References

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2. "North Korean carries out fourth nuclear test". The Guardian. 6 January 2016. Retrieved 6 January 2016.
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20. McCurry, Justin; Safi, Michael (6 January 2016). "North Korea claims successful hydrogen bomb test in 'self-defence against US'". The Guardian.
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44. "North Korea tests hydrogen bomb". NZ Herald. Retrieved 7 January 2016.
45. "NZ strongly condemns North Korean nuclear test". Scoop.co.nz. Retrieved 7 January 2016.
46. Mabasa, Roy (6 January 2016). "PH expresses grave concern over North Korea’s hydrogen bomb". Manila Bulletin. Retrieved 7 January 2016.
47. Gertcyk, Olga (6 January 2016). "Russia condemns North Korea's 'nuclear bomb test', a 'threat to national security'". The Siberian Times (Siberia, Russian Federation). Retrieved 6 January 2016.
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51. Borger, Julian; McCurry, Justin (6 January 2016). "North Korea hydrogen bomb test claim met with increasing skepticism". The Guardian (Guardian News and Media Limited). Retrieved 6 January 2016.
52. Park, Ju-Min (7 January 2016). "South Korea to secure U.S. weapons: ‘If North Korea wages provocation, there will be firm punishment’". National Post (Toronto, Canada). Retrieved 7 January 2016.
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54. "North Korea announces hydrogen bomb test". BBC News. 6 January 2016. Retrieved 6 January 2016.
55. Lamothe, Dan (6 January 2016). "This is the Air Force radiation sniffer plane deploying after North Korea’s nuclear test". The Washington Post. Retrieved 7 January 2016.
56. Associated Press (9 January 2016). "The Latest: US B-52 returns to Guam after S. Korea fly-over". The Washington Post.
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58. "North Korea says it has conducted hydrogen bomb test". CNN. Retrieved 6 January 2016.
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60. "North Korea nuclear test: UN vows new measures". BBC Asia. BBC. 6 January 2016. Retrieved 7 January 2016.

External links

• Fourth Generation Nuclear Weapons: Military effectiveness and collateral effects
• Arun Vishwanathan, S. Chandrashekar, L.V. Krishnan and Lalitha Sundaresan. North Korea's 2016 Nuclear Test: An Analysis. ISSSP Report No. 1-2016. Bangalore: International Strategic and Security Studies Programme, National Institute of Advanced Studies, January 10, 2016.