Aggregative Contingent Estimation
Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) was a program of the Office of Incisive Analysis (OIA) at the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA).[1][2] The program ran from June 2010 until June 2015.[3]
History
The broad program announcement for ACE was published on June 30, 2010.[4] ACE funded the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES) website and interface on July 15, 2011.[5] They funded The Good Judgment Project some time around July 2011.[6] ACE has been covered in the Washington Post[7] and Wired Magazine.[8] The program was concluded by late 2015.[9]
Goals and methods
The official website says that the goals of ACE are "to dramatically enhance the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of intelligence forecasts for a broad range of event types, through the development of advanced techniques that elicit, weight, and combine the judgments of many intelligence analysts."[1] The website claims that ACE seeks technical innovations in the following areas:[1]
- efficient elicitation of probabilistic judgments, including conditional probabilities for contingent events
- mathematical aggregation of judgments by many individuals, based on factors that may include: past performance, expertise, cognitive style, metaknowledge, and other attributes predictive of accuracy
- effective representation of aggregated probabilistic forecasts and their distributions.
There is a fair amount of research funded by grants made by the IARPA ACE program.[10]
Partners
The ACE has collaborated with partners who compete in its forecasting tournaments. Their most notable partner is The Good Judgment Project from Philip E. Tetlock et al.[11] (winner of a 2013 ACE tournament)[7] ACE also partnered with the ARA to create the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES).[5]
Data from ACE is fed into another program, called Forecasting Science and Technology (ForeST), which partners with SciCast from George Mason University.[12]
References
- 1 2 3 Matheny, Jason; Rieber, Steve. "Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE)". Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- ↑ "Aggregative Contingent Estimation" (PDF). Office of the Director of National Intelligence, United States. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- ↑ Harbert, Tam (2015-10-19). "IARPA’s New Director Wants You to Surprise Him". IEEE Spectrum. Retrieved 2016-03-31.
- ↑ "Aggregative Contingent Estimation System". Federal Business Opportunities. June 30, 2010. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- 1 2 Hickey, Kathleen (July 15, 2011). "Intell site tests crowdsourcing's ability to predict future". GCN. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- ↑ "The idea behind the Good Judgment Project". The Good Judgment ProjectTM. July 27, 2011. Retrieved May 5, 2014.
- 1 2 Horowitz, Michael (November 26, 2013). "Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)". Washington Post. Retrieved May 5, 2014.
- ↑ Drummond, Katie (April 22, 2010). "Can Algorithms Find the Best Intelligence Analysts?". Wired Magazine. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- ↑ Corrin, Amber (2015-09-23). "IARPA's high-stakes intelligence experiment". C4ISR & Networks. Retrieved 2016-03-31.
- ↑ "Google Scholar listing of research funded by IARPA ACE". Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- ↑ "The Project". The Good Judgment ProjectTM. Retrieved May 5, 2014.
- ↑ Matheny, Jason. "Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST)". Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity. Retrieved May 6, 2014.