Cyclone Fantala

Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Fantala
Very intense tropical cyclone (SWIO scale)
Category 5 (Saffir–Simpson scale)

Fantala north of Madagascar on 18 April, shortly after peak intensity
Formed 11 April 2016
Dissipated 26 April 2016
(Remnant low after 24 April)
Highest winds 10-minute sustained: 250 km/h (155 mph)
1-minute sustained: 280 km/h (175 mph)
Gusts: 350 km/h (220 mph)
Lowest pressure 910 hPa (mbar); 26.87 inHg
Fatalities None
Areas affected Agaléga, Seychelles, Madagascar
Part of the 2015–16 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season

Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Fantala was the strongest tropical cyclone of the south-west Indian Ocean in terms of sustained winds. Part of the 2015–16 cyclone season, Fantala formed on 11 April to the south of Diego Garcia, an island in the central Indian Ocean. With a ridge to the south, the storm moved westward for several days while gaining strength, aided by warm waters and decreasing wind shear. Late on 17 April, the Météo-France office on Réunion (MFR) estimated peak 10-minute winds of 250 km/h (155 mph), making Fantala the strongest tropical cyclone of the basin in terms of 10-minute sustained winds. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated peak 1-minute winds of 280 km/h (175 mph), equivalent to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale and tied only with Agnielle from November 1995 as the strongest on record in the south-west Indian Ocean.

While near peak intensity, Fantala passed near the Farquhar Group of the Seychelles, damaging most of the buildings in the small archipelago. By April 18, Fantala had weakened to an intense tropical cyclone and slowed its forward motion, eventually reversing its direction of movement. After fluctuating in strength, the disorganized system reversed direction again, making its closet approach to Madagascar. Fantala degenerated into a remnant low on April 24.

Meteorological history

Map plotting the track and intensity of the storm according to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale

An area of disturbed weather persisted as of 9 April to the southeast of Diego Garcia. The system moved generally westwards, steered by a ridge, and a low-level circulation gradually became more defined. Limiting factors to faster development included poor inflow and moderate wind shear, although associated convection became more organized. At 06:00 UTC on 11 April, the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Météo-France in La Réunion (MFR) classified the system as Tropical Disturbance 8 about 600 km (375 mi) south of Diego Garcia.[1] Six hours later, the agency upgraded the system to a tropical depression.[2] At 13:00 UTC on 11 April, the American-based Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued a tropical cyclone formation alert, noting the increased organization of the convection, circulation, and outflow.[3] Later that day, the MFR upgraded the depression to Moderate Tropical Storm Fantala,[4] and the JTWC classified it as Tropical Cyclone 19S. By that time, the convection was quickly consolidating around the center, organizing into a circular central dense overcast.[5]

On 12 April, the previously detrimental wind shear began easing, allowing the structure to become more symmetric.[6] On that day, an eye feature began developing in the center of Fantala, indicative of strengthening.[7] At 12:00 UTC on 12 April, the MFR upgraded Fantala to severe tropical storm status,[8] and six hours later, the JTWC upgraded it to the equivalence of a minimal hurricane, with 1 minute maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h (75 mph); rapid strengthening was prevented by the entrainment of nearby dry air,[9] although the core of convection continued to contract.[10] At 06:00 UTC on 13 April, the MFR upgraded Fantala to tropical cyclone status, or with 10 minute winds of 120 km/h (75 mph). By that time, the eye feature persisted, consisting of a warm area within the deepest convection,[11] although the dry air in the region prevented quicker strengthening.[12]

By early on 14 April, the eye became better defined after an eyewall replacement cycle.[13] The intensity fluctuated after outflow decreased to the north, although increasingly warm waters favored further intensification.[14] Early on 15 April, the MFR upgraded Fantala to an intense tropical cyclone,[15] while the storm was undergoing rapid deepening.[16] The outflow was enhanced by a large upper-level low well to the southeast, and shear had decreased to a minimal.[17] On 16 April, Fantala turned more to the west-northward toward the southern islands of the Seychelles, steered by a strengthening ridge near Madagascar.[18] Around 15:00 UTC on the next day, the cyclone moved through the Farquhar Group of the Seychelles, and its eyewall moved over several small islands. At 18:00 UTC on 17 April, the MFR upgraded Fantala to a very intense tropical cyclone; based on a Dvorak rating of T7.5, the satellite-derived wind estimate was 250 km/h (155 mph) in 10 minute winds, along with an estimated barometric pressure of 910 mbar (27 inHg).[19] The JTWC also estimated peak 1 minute winds of 280 km/h (175 mph), equivalent to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.[20]

Cyclone Fantala northeast of Madagascar on 20 April

While maintaining peak intensity, Fantala slowed its forward movement as the ridge to its south over Madagascar weakened.[21] The cyclone turned back to the southeast due to the building influence of a ridge to the northeast, and the storm retraced its former path. Cooler waters along its path[22] – the result of upwelling[23] – as well as another eyewall replacement cycle,[24] caused Fantala to weaken to an intense tropical cyclone on 19 April.[22] That day, the eye disappeared on satellite imagery and the storm deteriorated further to tropical cyclone status.[25] The eye redeveloped on 20 April, with pronounced outflow assisting in the re-intensification,[26] although increased shear resulted in weakening again on 21 April.[27] That day, the MFR downgraded Fantala to a severe tropical storm.[28] The structure improved again on 22 April as the system stalled due to the building ridge to the south.[29] At 00:00 UTC that day, the MFR upgraded Fantala to an intense tropical cyclone once the eye became more pronounced again,[30] only to downgrade it to tropical cyclone status by 06:00 UTC.[31] A small area of convection persisted over the center, although dry air in the region continued to weaken the thunderstorms.[32] The MFR downgraded Fantala to a severe tropical storm on 23 April as the storm began drifting to the northwest.[33] Increasing wind shear weakened Fantala further to a moderate tropical storm that day,[34] and on 24 April, both the JTWC and MFR issued their final advisories; the latter agency had first downgraded it to a tropical depression. By that time, the circulation was exposed from the convection as Fantala moved over cooled waters where it traversed a few days prior.[35][36]

Impact and records

Cyclone Fantala first threatened Agaléga, part of the Outer Islands of Mauritius. Government officials forced all 72 residents on the South Island to evacuate to the North Island, and strongly advised fishermen to avoid sailing.[37]

Fantala was the first tropical cyclone to threaten the Farquhar Group since Cyclone Bondo in 2006.[38] Most of the 34 residents on Farquhar Atoll evacuated ahead of the storm, and those that remained behind were uninjured.[39] While moving through the Seychelles near peak intensity, Fantala had estimated winds of 241 km/h (150 mph), and days later it moved through the region with winds estimated at 157 km/h (98 mph). Based on satellite imagery, it was estimated that of the 50 structures on Farquhar Atoll, 19 were destroyed and 27 sustained severe damage. Only four buildings withstood the estimated 350 km/h (217 mph) gusts with moderate damage,[40] which were constructed to be cyclone-proof after Bondo in 2006. In addition, many of the island's trees were knocked down. [41] Due to the storm's prolonged passage through the island group, the Seychelles government declared the Farquhar islands as a disaster area on 20 April.[41]

According to estimates from the JTWC, Fantala attained peak 1 minute winds of 280 km/h (175 mph), tied only with Cyclone Agnielle from November 1995 as the strongest cyclone on record in the south-west Indian Ocean. Reliable satellite-based intensity estimates date back to 1990.[42] The storm was fueled by the powerful ongoing El Niño, which also contributed to the record intensities of Hurricane Patricia in the northeastern Pacific Ocean and Cyclone Winston in the southern Pacific Ocean.[43]

See also

References

  1. ↑ Tropical Disturbance 8 Warning 1. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 11 April 2016. Archived from the original on 11 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  2. ↑ Tropical Depression 8 Warning 2. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 11 April 2016. Archived from the original on 11 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  3. ↑ Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 21 April 2016. Archived from the original on 11 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  4. ↑ Warning of Moderate Tropical Storm. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 11 April 2016. Archived from the original on 11 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  5. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) Warning NR 001". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 11 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  6. ↑ Moderate Tropical Storm 8 (Fantala) Warning 4. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 12 April 2016. Archived from the original on 12 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  7. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) Warning NR 002". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 12 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  8. ↑ Severe Tropical Storm 8 (Fantala) Warning 6. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 12 April 2016. Archived from the original on 12 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  9. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) Warning NR 003". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 12 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  10. ↑ Severe Tropical Storm 8 (Fantala) Warning 7. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 12 April 2016. Archived from the original on 12 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  11. ↑ Tropical Cyclone 8 (Fantala) Warning 9. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 13 April 2016. Archived from the original on 13 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  12. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) Warning NR 005". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 13 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  13. ↑ Tropical Cyclone 8 (Fantala) Warning 13. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 14 April 2016. Archived from the original on 14 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  14. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) Warning NR 007". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 14 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  15. ↑ Intense Tropical Cyclone 8 (Fantala) Warning 17. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 15 April 2016. Archived from the original on 15 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  16. ↑ Intense Tropical Cyclone 8 (Fantala) Warning 18. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 15 April 2016. Archived from the original on 15 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  17. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) Warning NR 008". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 15 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  18. ↑ Intense Tropical Cyclone 8 (Fantala) Warning 22. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 16 April 2016. Archived from the original on 16 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  19. ↑ Very Intense Tropical Cyclone 8 (Fantala) Warning 27. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 17 April 2016. Archived from the original on 17 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  20. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) Warning NR 013". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 17 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  21. ↑ Very Intense Tropical Cyclone 8 (Fantala) Warning 30. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 18 April 2016. Archived from the original on 18 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  22. 1 2 Very Intense Tropical Cyclone 8 (Fantala) Warning 32. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 19 April 2016. Archived from the original on 19 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  23. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) Warning NR 015". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 18 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  24. ↑ Intense Tropical Cyclone 8 (Fantala) Warning 31. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 19 April 2016. Archived from the original on 19 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  25. ↑ Tropical Cyclone 8 (Fantala) Warning 33. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 19 April 2016. Archived from the original on 19 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  26. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) Warning NR 018". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 20 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  27. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) Warning NR 020". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 21 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  28. ↑ Severe Tropical Storm 8 (Fantala) Warning 41. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 21 April 2016. Archived from the original on 21 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  29. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) Warning NR 022". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 22 April 2016. Retrieved 22 April 2016.
  30. ↑ Intense Tropical Cyclone 8 (Fantala) Warning 44. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 22 April 2016. Archived from the original on 22 April 2016. Retrieved 22 April 2016.
  31. ↑ Tropical Cyclone 8 (Fantala) Warning 45. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 22 April 2016. Archived from the original on 22 April 2016. Retrieved 22 April 2016.
  32. ↑ Tropical Cyclone 8 (Fantala) Warning 47. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 22 April 2016. Archived from the original on 22 April 2016. Retrieved 26 April 2016.
  33. ↑ Severe Tropical Storm 8 (Fantala) Warning 48. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 23 April 2016. Archived from the original on 23 April 2016. Retrieved 26 April 2016.
  34. ↑ Severe Tropical Storm 8 (Fantala) Warning 49. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 23 April 2016. Archived from the original on 23 April 2016. Retrieved 26 April 2016.
  35. ↑ Tropical Depression 8 (ex-Fantala) Warning 52. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 24 April 2016. Archived from the original on 24 April 2016. Retrieved 26 April 2016.
  36. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone 19S (Fantala) Warning NR 026". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 24 April 2016. Retrieved 26 April 2016.
  37. ↑ "Agalega: 72 Personnes Évacuées á L'Approche du Cyclone Fantala" (in French). Le Defi Media Group. 15 April 2016. Retrieved 22 April 2016.
  38. ↑ Intense Tropical Cyclone 8 (Fantala) Warning 21. Météo-France (Report) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 16 April 2016. Archived from the original on 16 April 2016. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  39. ↑ "Cyclone Fantala in Seychelles". Space & Major Disasters International Charter. 19 April 2016. Retrieved 22 April 2016.
  40. ↑ Tropical Cyclone Fanatala-16 Damage Assessment Report Farquhar Atoll, Seychelles (PDF). United Nations Institute for Training and Research (Report) (ReliefWeb). 25 April 2016. Retrieved 26 April 2016.
  41. 1 2 Sharon Urinie (20 April 2016). "Seychelles authorities declare Farquhar islands disaster areas after Cyclone Fantala hits twice". Seychelles News Agency. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  42. ↑ Bob Henson (18 April 2016). "Fantala Tied for Strongest on Record for Indian Ocean; Massive Flash Flood in Houston". Weather Underground. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
  43. ↑ Max Bearak (19 April 2016). "A humongous, El Niño-fueled cyclone named Fantala is this year’s third record-breaker in a row". The Washington Post. Retrieved 21 April 2016.

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