Energy modeling

Energy modeling and energy system modeling refer to the process of building computer models of energy systems in order to analyze them. Such models often employ scenario analysis to investigate different assumptions about the technical and economic conditions at play. Outputs may include the feasibility, greenhouse gas emissions, cumulative financial costs, natural resource use, and energy efficiency of the system under investigation. A wide range of techniques are employed, ranging from broadly economic to broadly engineering. Mathematical optimization may be used, usually to determine least-cost in some sense. Models can be international, regional, national, municipal, or stand-alone in scope. Governments often maintaining national models for national energy policy development.

Overview

Energy models are usually intended to contribute variously to system operations, engineering design, or national energy policy development. This page concentrates on policy models.

Model types

A wide variety of model types are in use. This section attempts to categorize the key types and their usage. The divisions provided are not hard and fast and mixed-paradigm models exist.

Models may be either point-in-time or dynamic. Point-in-time models usually embed considerable temporal (typically hourly resolution) and technical detail (such as individual generation plant and transmissions lines). Dynamic models encapsulate the evolution of system over time and are often used to investigate capacity expansion and system transition issues.

Implementing languages include GAMS, MathProg, MATLAB, Python, Fortran, Java, C, and C++.

Electricity sector models

Electricity sector models are used to model electricity systems. The scope may be national or regional, depending on circumstances. For instance, given the presence of national interconnectors, the western European electricity system may be modeled in its entirety.

Engineering-based models usually contain a good characterization of the technologies involved, including the transmission grid where appropriate.

Game theory and agent-based models are used to capture and study strategic behavior within electricity markets.

Energy system models

Energy system models are often national in scope, but may be municipal and international.

So-called top-down models are broadly economic in nature and usually based on partial equilibrium.

So-called bottom-up models capture the engineering well.

Producing hybrid top-down/bottom-up models to capture both the economics and the engineering has proved challenging.

Integrated assessment models

Integrated assessment models (IAM) combine an energy model with a simplified model of the Earth's climate system.

Established models

This section lists some of the major models in use. These are typically run by national governments.

LEAP

LEAP (Long range Energy Alternatives Planning System) is a software tool for energy policy analysis and climate change mitigation assessment developed at the Stockholm Environment Institute's (SEI) US Center.[1][2]

MARKAL/TIMES

MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) is an integrated energy systems modeling platform that can be used to analyze energy, economic, and environmental issues at the global, national, and municipal level over a time-frame of up to several decades. It is a set of software tools that may be used to quantify the impacts of policy options on technology development and resource depletion. MARKAL was developed in a cooperative multinational project over a period of almost two decades by the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP) of the International Energy Agency.

TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) is an evolution of MARKAL — both energy models have many similarities.[3] TIMES succeeded MARKAL in 2008.[4] Both models are technology explicit, dynamic partial equilibrium models of energy markets. In both cases the equilibrium is obtained by maximizing the total surplus of consumers and suppliers via linear programming. The two models also share the multi-regional feature, which allows the modeler to construct geographically integrated (even global) instances. Both MARKAL and TIMES are written in GAMS.

The TIMES model generator was also developed as part of the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (ETSAP). The TIMES model generator combines two different, but complementary, systematic approaches to modelling energy — a technical engineering approach and an economic approach. TIMES is a technology rich, bottom-up model generator, which uses linear programming to produce a least-cost energy system, optimized according to a number of user constraints, over medium to long-term time horizons. It is used for "the exploration of possible energy futures based on contrasted scenarios".[5]

NEMS

NEMS (National Energy Modeling System) is the US government policy model.

Criticisms

Public policy energy models have been criticized for being insufficiently transparent. The source code and data sets should at least be available for peer review, if not publication.[6] To improve transparency and public acceptance, some models are undertaken as open-source software projects, often developing a diverse community as they proceed. OSeMOSYS is one such example.

See also

References

  1. ↑ SEI (May 2012). LEAP : Long range Energy Alternatives Planning System : a tool for energy policy analysis and climate change mitigation assessment — Flyer (PDF). Somerville, MA, USA: Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) US Center. Retrieved 2016-05-04.
  2. ↑ "LEAP : tools for sustainable energy analysis". Retrieved 2016-05-04.
  3. ↑ A comparison of the TIMES and MARKAL models (PDF). Retrieved 2016-05-04.
  4. ↑ "MARKAL". Retrieved 2016-05-04.
  5. ↑ Loulou, Richard; Remne, Uwe; Kanudia, Amit; Lehtila, Antti; Goldstein, Gary (April 2005). Documentation for the TIMES model — Part I (PDF). Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP). Retrieved 2016-05-04.
  6. ↑ acatech; Lepoldina; Akademienunion, eds. (2016). Consulting with energy scenarios : requirements for scientific policy advice (PDF). Berlin, Germany: acatech — National Academy of Science and Engineering. ISBN 978-3-8047-3550-7. Retrieved 2016-04-28.

External links

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