Ferguson effect

The Ferguson effect is a term referring to what its proponents claim is a causal link between protests of the use of excessive force by police, especially those in Ferguson, Missouri, and increases in crime rates in a number of major U.S. cities, due to police forces being subject to heightened levels of scrutiny. The term has been criticized by some academics and politicians, including President Barack Obama.[1][2]

Origin

The term was coined by Sam Dotson, the chief of the St. Louis Police Department,[3] in a 2014 column in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.[4] In the column, Dotson said that after the protests in Ferguson caused by the shooting of Michael Brown that August, his officers had been hesitant to enforce the law due to fears of being charged, and that "the criminal element is feeling empowered" as a result.[3]

Promotion

The term "Ferguson effect" became popular after Heather Mac Donald used it in a May 29, 2015 Wall Street Journal op-ed.[5] The op-ed claimed that the rise in crime rates in some U.S. cities was due to "agitation" against police forces.[6] She further stated that "Unless the demonisation of law enforcement ends, the liberating gains in urban safety will be lost," and quoted a number of police officers as saying police morale is at an all-time low.[3] The term has also been used by James Comey, director of the FBI, and Chuck Rosenberg, director of the DEA.[6] In 2015, Rahm Emanuel, the mayor of Chicago, suggested that nationwide backlash against police brutality had led to officers disengaging, which, in turn, had led to violent crime increasing.[7]

Criticism

Law enforcement and politicians

William Bratton, the New York City Police Commissioner, has said he has seen no evidence of a "Ferguson effect" in his city.[8] U.S. Attorney General Loretta Lynch testified before Congress on November 17, 2015 that there was "no data" to support claims that the Ferguson effect existed.[9] According to Slate, Ronald L. Davis, a former police chief and the executive director of President Obama’s Task Force on 21st Century Policing, testified at the same hearing that the notion that police would fail to do their jobs because they were scared was "an insult to the profession."[10] U.S. President Barack Obama also said in a 2015 speech to the International Association of Chiefs of Police that although gun violence and homicides had spiked in some U.S. cities, "so far at least across the nation, the data shows that we are still enjoying historically low rates of violent crime" and "What we can’t do is cherry-pick data or use anecdotal evidence to drive policy or to feed political agendas."[11] In December 2015, Edward A. Flynn, police chief of Milwaukee, Wisconsin, said that although police were unnerved due to anti-police protests, this was not solely responsible for the increase in violent crime observed in his city recently, because rates of such crimes there started increasing before Michael Brown was shot.[12]

Academia

Some researchers have said that there is little evidence of a crime wave in the United States; for example, law professor Franklin Zimring told NBC News in 2015 that "I don't think there's a trend" in recent nationwide crime rates.[13] Jeffery Ulmer, associate head of the Department of Sociology and Criminology at Penn State University, has said that although the Ferguson effect is possible, he does not consider it likely nationwide.[3] George Ciccariello-Maher, a political scientist at Drexel University, has said that the Ferguson effect consists of two components: people challenging and publicly confronting police, and the notion that "when people know their rights, they become dangerous criminals.” Although he acknowledges that the first component has been observed in recent years, he says the second component is "utterly absurd."[14]

Reports and studies

A June 2015 report by the Sentencing Project on the Ferguson effect found that "there is no credible and comprehensive evidence about any such effect."[15] A November 2015 report by the Brennan Center for Justice found that although killings and overall lawlessness were increasing in some U.S. cities, nationwide crime rates were still decreasing, and predicted that crime rates would decrease by 1.5% from 2014 to 2015.[13]

A 2015 study looked at a possible "Ferguson effect" not on crime, but on police willingness to partner with communities. The study found that officers who felt their agency was fair or were confident of their own authority were more likely to partner with their communities, "regardless of the effects of negative publicity."[16]

A February 2016 University of Colorado Boulder study looked at crime statistics from 81 U.S. cities and found no evidence of a Ferguson effect with respect to overall, violent, or property crime, but did identify an increase in robbery rates after the shooting of Michael Brown (while these rates had been decreasing before this shooting).[17] A March 2016 study by Johns Hopkins University researchers Stephen L. Morgan and Joel Pally found that after Michael Brown was shot, rates of many types of crimes in Baltimore decreased relative to what had been expected, while others (such as robbery and burglary) remained unchanged.[18][19]

References

  1. ↑ Lopez, German (20 January 2016). "Why violent crime increased in the first 6 months of 2015". Vox. Retrieved 11 April 2016.
  2. ↑ Fabian, Jordan (1 November 2015). "Obama, FBI director spar over the 'Ferguson Effect' on police". The Hill. Retrieved 11 April 2016.
  3. 1 2 3 4 Gold, Ashley (5 June 2015). "Why has the murder rate in some US cities suddenly spiked?". BBC News. Retrieved 15 December 2015.
  4. ↑ Byers, Christine (15 November 2014). "Crime up after Ferguson and more police needed, top St. Louis area chiefs say". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved 15 December 2015.
  5. ↑ Mac Donald, Heather (29 May 2015). "The New Nationwide Crime Wave". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 15 December 2015.
  6. 1 2 Ford, Matt (21 November 2015). "Debunking the Ferguson Effect". The Atlantic. Retrieved 15 December 2015.
  7. ↑ Johnson, Kevin (28 December 2015). "Providence one of many U.S. police forces feeling Ferguson aftershocks". USA Today. Retrieved 8 February 2016.
  8. ↑ Perez, Evan (26 October 2015). "FBI chief tries to deal with the 'Ferguson effect'". CNN. Retrieved 15 December 2015.
  9. ↑ Horwitz, Sari (17 November 2015). "Attorney General: There is ‘no data’ backing existence of a ‘Ferguson effect’". Washington Post. Retrieved 15 December 2015.
  10. ↑ Neyfakh, Leon (20 November 2015). "There Is No Ferguson Effect". Slate. Retrieved 8 January 2016.
  11. ↑ Eilperin, Juliet (27 October 2015). "Obama says there’s no evidence of a ‘Ferguson effect’". Washington Post. Retrieved 15 December 2015.
  12. ↑ Fears, Darryl (5 December 2015). "In Milwaukee, evidence is weak for the ‘Ferguson effect’". Washington Post. Retrieved 16 January 2016.
  13. 1 2 Schuppe, Jon (27 November 2015). "Researchers Cast Doubt on 'Ferguson Effect' as Cause of Crime Spikes". NBC News. Retrieved 15 December 2015.
  14. ↑ Jonsson, Patrik (12 June 2015). "Just what is the 'Ferguson effect'? It depends on how you view police.". Christian Science Monitor. Retrieved 8 January 2016.
  15. ↑ Rosenfeld, Richard (June 2015). "Was There a “Ferguson Effect” on Crime in St. Louis?" (PDF). Sentencing Project. Retrieved 15 December 2015.
  16. ↑ Wolfe, Scott E.; Nix, Justin (2015). "The Alleged "Ferguson Effect" and Police Willingness to Engage in Community Partnership.". Law and Human Behavior. doi:10.1037/lhb0000164.
  17. ↑ Pyrooz, David C.; Decker, Scott H.; Wolfe, Scott E.; Shjarback, John A. (September 2016). "Was there a Ferguson Effect on crime rates in large U.S. cities?". Journal of Criminal Justice 46: 1–8. doi:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2016.01.001. Lay summary – University of Colorado Boulder News Center (February 4, 2016).
  18. ↑ Morgan, Stephen L. (March 2016). "Ferguson, Gray, and Davis" (PDF). Retrieved 11 April 2016.
  19. ↑ Mock, Brentin (15 March 2016). "Study: There Has Been No 'Ferguson Effect' in Baltimore". Citylab. Retrieved 11 April 2016.
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