Great Recession in Oceania

Great Recession in Oceania is an article on the recession affecting the Oceanic region. This includes, Australia, New Zealand and South Pacific countries.

Australia

Australia avoided technical recession due to a number of factors: the country's low levels of public debt allowed government stimulus spending; its proximity to the booming Chinese economy and the related mining boom kept growth ticking over throughout the worst of the global conditions. In fact, sources such as the IMF and the Reserve Bank of Australia had predicted Australia was well positioned to weather the crisis with minimal disruption, sustaining more than 2% GDP growth in 2009 (as many Western nations went into recession). In the same year the World Economic Forum ranked Australia's banking system the fourth best in the world, while the Australian dollar's 30% drop was seen as a boon for trade, shielding the country from the crisis and helping to slow growth and consumption. The recession by Australia effected New Zealand's economy as Australia is New Zealand's biggest exporter. .^[1][2]

Some analysts had predicted the continuing decline of trade in 2009 could put the economy into recession for the first time in 17 years.^[3] However these initial fears were proved largely unfounded as the Australian economy avoided recession and the unemployment rate peaked at a much lower rate than had been predicted.

New Zealand

New Zealand Institute of Economic Research's quarterly survey showing New Zealand's economy contracted 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2008 and Treasury figures suggested the economy also contracted in the June quarter putting New Zealand in a technical recession.^[4] The Treasury says the economy could recover in the second half of the year under the impact of high dairy prices boosting farmer incomes and cuts to personal tax rates, which come into effect on Oct. 1.^[5] There was a substantial number of finance company collapses between 2006 and 2012. Housing starts in New Zealand fell 20 percent in June, the lowest levels since 1986.^[6] Excluding apartments, approvals dropped 13 percent from May. Approvals in the year ended June fell 12 percent from a year earlier. Second-quarter approvals dropped 19 percent. The figures suggest a decrease in construction and economic growth. House sales fell 42 percent in June from a year earlier.^[7] The New Zealand Treasury concluded that the country's economy had contracted for a second quarter based on economic indicators, putting New Zealand in a recession.^[8] New Zealand's central bank cut rates by half a percent arguing the economy was in recession.^[9] New Zealand's GDP declined by 0.2 percent in the second quarter putting the country in its first recession in a decade.^[10]

The economy emerged from recession in mid-2009, with the second-quarter GDP report showing the economy grew by 0.1 per cent on the March quarter.^[11]

Timeline of the Great Recession across all continents

The table below displays all national recessions appearing in 2006-2013 (for the 71 countries with available data), according to the common recession definition, saying that a recession occurred whenever seasonally adjusted real GDP contracts quarter on quarter, through minimum two consecutive quarters. Only 11 out of the 71 listed countries with quarterly GDP data (Poland, Slovakia, Moldova, India, China, South Korea, Indonesia, Australia, Uruguay, Colombia and Bolivia) escaped a recession in this time period.

The few recessions appearing early in 2006-07 are commonly never associated to be part of the Great Recession, which is illustrated by the fact that only two countries (Iceland and Jamaica) were in recession in Q4-2007.

One year before the maximum, in Q1-2008, only six countries were in recession (Iceland, Sweden, Finland, Ireland, Portugal and New Zealand). The number of countries in recession was 25 in Q2‑2008, 39 in Q3‑2008 and 53 in Q4‑2008. At the steepest part of the Great Recession in Q1‑2009, a total of 59 out of 71 countries were simultaneously in recession. The number of countries in recession was 37 in Q2‑2009, 13 in Q3‑2009 and 11 in Q4‑2009. One year after the maximum, in Q1‑2010, only seven countries were in recession (Greece, Croatia, Romania, Iceland, Jamaica, Venezuela and Belize).

The recession data for the overall G20-zone (representing 85% of all GWP), depict that the Great Recession existed as a global recession throughout Q3‑2008 until Q1‑2009.

Subsequent follow-up recessions in 2010‑2013 were confined to Belize, El Salvador, Paraguay, Jamaica, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand and 24 out of 50 European countries (including Greece). As of October 2014, only five out of the 71 countries with available quarterly data (Cyprus, Italy, Croatia, Belize and El Salvador), were still in ongoing recessions.^[12][13] The many follow-up recessions hitting the European countries, are commonly referred to as being direct repercussions of the European sovereign‑debt crisis.

Country[lower-alpha 1]	Recession period(s) during 2006‑2013[12][13] (measured by quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted real GDP, as per the latest revised Q3-2013 data from 10 January 2014)[lower-alpha 2]
Albania	Q1-2007 until Q2-2007 (6 months)[14] Q3-2009 until Q4-2009 (6 months)[14] Q4-2011 until Q1-2012 (6 months)[14]
Argentina	Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)
Australia	None
Austria	Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months) Q3-2011 until Q4-2011 (6 months)
Belgium	Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months) Q2-2012 until Q1-2013 (12 months)
Belize	Q1-2006 until Q2-2006 (6 months)[15] Q1-2007 until Q3-2007 (9 months)[15] Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)[15] Q4-2009 until Q1-2010 (6 months)[15] Q1-2011 until Q2-2011 (6 months)[15] Q2-2013 until Ongoing (6 months)[15]
Bolivia	None[16][lower-alpha 3] Q2-2013 until Ongoing (6 months)[23][lower-alpha 4]
Estonia	Q3-2008 until Q3-2009 (15 months) Q1-2013 until Q2-2013 (6 months)
EU (28 member states)	Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months) Q4-2011 until Q2-2012 (9 months) Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months)
Eurozone (17 member states)	Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months) Q4-2011 until Q1-2013 (18 months)
Finland	Q1-2008 until Q2-2009 (18 months) Q2-2012 until Q1-2013 (12 months)
France	Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months) Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months)
G20 (43 member states, PPP-weighted GDP)[lower-alpha 5]	Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)
Germany	Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)
Greece	Q3-2008 until Q2-2014 (63 months)
Hong Kong	Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[25]
Hungary	Q1-2007 until Q2-2007 (6 months) Q2-2008 until Q3-2009 (18 months) Q2-2011 until Q3-2011 (6 months) Q1-2012 until Q4-2012 (12 months)
Iceland	Q4-2007 until Q2-2008 (9 months) Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months) Q3-2009 until Q2-2010 (12 months)
India	None
Indonesia	None
Ireland	Q2-2007 until Q3-2007 (6 months) Q1-2008 until Q4-2009 (24 months)
Israel	Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)
Italy	Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months) Q3-2011 until Q3 2014 (27 months)
Jamaica	Q3-2007 until Q4-2007 (6 months)[26] Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[26] Q4-2009 until Q2-2010 (9 months)[26] Q4-2011 until Q1-2012 (6 months)[26] Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months)[26]
Japan	Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months) Q4-2010 until Q2-2011 (9 months) Q2-2012 until Q3-2012 (6 months)
Kazakhstan	Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[27][lower-alpha 6]

1. 105 out of the 206 sovereign countries in the World, did not publish any quarterly GDP data for the 2006‑2013 period. The following 21 countries were also excluded from the table, due to only publishing unadjusted quarterly real GDP figures with no seasonal adjustment: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Brunei, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Georgia, Guatemala, Iran, Jordan, Macao, Montenegro, Morocco, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Palestine, Qatar, Rwanda, Sri Lanka, Trinidad and Tobago, Vietnam.
2. Only seasonally adjusted qoq-data can be used to accurately determine recession periods. When quarterly change is calculated by comparing quarters with the same quarter of last year, this results only in an aggregated -often delayed- indication, because of being a product of all quarterly changes taking place since the same quarter last year. Currently there is no seasonal adjusted qoq-data available for Greece and Macedonia, which is why the table display the recession intervals for these two countries only based upon the alternative indicative data format.
3. Bolivia had as of January 2014 only published seasonally adjusted real GDP data until Q1-2010, with the statistics office still to publish data for 2010-13.^[16]</ref> Brazil Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months) Bulgaria Q1-2009 until Q2-2009 (6 months) Canada Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months) Chile Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months) China None Colombia None^[17][18] Costa Rica Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)^[19] Croatia Q3-2008 until Q2-2010 (24 months)
   Q3-2011 until Q4-2012 (18 months)
   Q2-2013 until Ongoing (6 months) Cyprus Q1-2009 until Q4-2009 (12 months)
   Q3-2011 until Ongoing (27 months) Czech Republic Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)
   Q4-2011 until Q1-2013 (18 months) Denmark Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)
   Q3-2011 until Q4-2011 (6 months)
   Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months) Ecuador Q4-2006 until Q1-2007 (6 months)^[20]
   Q1-2009 until Q3-2009 (9 months)^[21][22] El Salvador Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)^{[23][lower-alpha 4]}
4. According to the methodology note for the quarterly GDP of El Salvador, this data series include seasonally adjustments.<ref name='Methodology note for the quarterly GDP of El Salvador'>"Boletín Económico: Metodología Producto Interno Bruto Trimestral, Base 1990" (PDF) (in Spanish). Banco Central de Reserva de El Salvador. 27 October 2006.
5. The G20-zone represents 85% of all GWP, and comprise 19 member states (incl. UK, France, Germany and Italy) along with the EU Commission as the 20th member, who represents the remaining 24 EU member states in the forum.^[24]
6. Kazakhstan had as of January 2014 only published seasonally adjusted real GDP data until Q4-2009, with the statistics office still to publish data for 2010-13.^[27]</ref> Latvia Q2-2008 until Q3-2009 (18 months) Lithuania Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months) Luxembourg Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months) Macedonia Q1-2009 until Q3-2009 (9 months)^[28]
   Q1-2012 until Q2-2012 (6 months)^[28]
   (not qoq-data, but quarters compared with same quarter of last year)^{[lower-alpha 2]} Malaysia Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)^[29][30] Malta Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months) Mexico Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months) Moldova None^{[31][lower-alpha 7]} Venezuela Q1-2009 until Q1-2010 (15 months)<ref name='Venezuela s.a. real GDP 1998-2013'>"AGREGADOS_MACROECONÓMICOS: PIB Desestacionalizado. Base 1997 (Trimestral)" (XLS) (in Spanish). 9 December 2013.
7. Moldova had as of January 2014 only published seasonally adjusted real GDP data until Q4-2010, with the statistics office still to publish data for 2011-13.^[31]</ref> Netherlands Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)
   Q2-2011 until Q1-2012 (12 months)
   Q3-2012 until Q2-2013 (12 months) New Zealand Q1-2008 until Q2-2009 (18 months)
   Q3-2010 until Q4-2010 (6 months) Norway Q1-2009 until Q2-2009 (6 months)
   Q2-2010 until Q3-2010 (6 months)
   Q1-2011 until Q2-2011 (6 months) OECD (34 member states, PPP-weighted GDP) Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months) Paraguay Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)^[32]
   Q2-2011 until Q3-2011 (6 months)^[32] Peru Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)^[33] Philippines Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)^[34][35] Poland None Portugal Q2-2007 until Q3-2007 (6 months)
   Q1-2008 until Q1-2009 (15 months)
   Q4-2010 until Q1-2013 (30 months) Romania Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)
   Q4-2009 until Q1-2010 (6 months)
   Q4-2011 until Q1-2012 (6 months) Russia Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months) Serbia Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)^[36]
   Q2-2011 until Q1-2012 (12 months)^[36]
   Q3-2012 until Q4-2012 (6 months)^[36] Singapore Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)^{[37][38][39][40][41]} Slovakia None Slovenia Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)
   Q3-2011 until Q4-2013 (24 months)^[42][43] South Africa Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months) South Korea None Spain Q2-2008 until Q4-2009 (21 months)
   Q2-2011 until Q2-2013 (27 months) Sweden Q1-2008 until Q1-2009 (15 months) Switzerland Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months) Taiwan Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)^[44]
   Q3-2011 until Q4-2011 (6 months)^[44] Thailand Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)^[45] Turkey Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months) Ukraine Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)^[46]
   Q3-2012 until Q4-2012 (6 months)^[46][47][48] United Kingdom Q2-2008 until Q3-2009 (18 months)^[49]
   Q4-2011 until Q2-2012 (9 months)^[49] United States Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months) Uruguay None<ref name='Uruguay s.a. real GDP 2005-2013'>"Informe Trimestral de Cuentas Nacionales: Julio – Setiembre 2013" (PDF) (in Spanish). Banco Central del Uruguay. 13 December 2013.

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External links

• ILO Job Crisis Observatory