Hard–easy effect

The hard–easy effect is a cognitive bias that occurs when, based on a specific level of difficulty of a given task, subjective judgements do not accurately reflect the true difficulty of that task. This manifests as a tendency to overestimate the probability of success in difficult tasks, and to underestimate the probability of success in easy tasks.[1][2][3]

Example

An experimental group was given a questionnaire. It consisted of two alternative general-knowledge questions. Such as "Who was born first, Aristotle or Buddha?" or "Was the zipper invented before or after 1920?". The subjects filled in the answers they believed to be correct and rated how sure they were of them. The result shows that subjects tend to be underconfident when it comes to questions designated by the experimenters to be easy, and overconfident when it comes to questions designated by the experimenters to be hard.[4]

See also

References

  1. ↑ Lichtenstein, S., & Fischhoff, B. (1977). Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 20(2), 159–183. doi:10.1016/0030-5073(77)90001-0
  2. ↑ Merkle, E. C. (2009). "The disutility of the hard-easy effect in choice confidence". Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 16 (1): 204–213. doi:10.3758/PBR.16.1.204.
  3. ↑ Juslin, P; Winman, A.; Olsson, H. (2000). "Naive empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: a critical examination of the hard-easy effect". Psychological Review 107 (2): 384–396. doi:10.1037/0033-295x.107.2.384.
  4. ↑ William M. Goldstein; Robin M. Hogarth (13 June 1997). Research on Judgment and Decision Making: Currents, Connections, and Controversies. Cambridge University Press. p. 108. ISBN 978-0-521-48334-6. Retrieved 8 September 2013.

Fajfar, Pablo. "An analysis of calibration; the hard-easy effect and the emotional disappointment of overconfident behavior: Some experimental evidences" Retrieved August 17, 2013, from http://www.ucema.edu.ar/conferencias/download/2009/Paper_Fajfar_Gurman.pdf

Moore, Don & Healy, Paul J. "The Trouble with Overconfidence" Retrieved August 17, 2013, from http://www.cbdr.cmu.edu/papers/pdfs/cdr_576.pdf


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