Hirsch report

The Hirsch report, the commonly referred to name for the report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, was created by request for the US Department of Energy and published in February 2005.[1] Some information was updated in 2007.[2] It examined the time frame for the occurrence of peak oil, the necessary mitigating actions, and the likely impacts based on the timeliness of those actions.

Introduction

"The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking."

The lead author, Robert L. Hirsch, published a brief summary of this report in October 2005 for the Atlantic Council.[3]

Projections

A number of industry petroleum geologists, scientists, and economists were listed with their global peak production projection. Later, in 2010, Hirsch developed a projection that global oil production would begin to decline by 2015.[4]

Projected Date Source
2006–2007 Bakhtiari
2007–2009 Simmons
After 2007 Skrebowski
Before 2009 Deffeyes
Before 2010 Goodstein
Around 2010 Campbell
After 2010 World Energy Council
2010–2020 Laherrere
2016 EIA (Nominal)
After 2020 CERA
2025 or later Shell

Mitigation

Operating under the assumption that existing services must be sustained, the Hirsch report considered the effects of the following mitigation strategies as part of the "crash program":

  1. Fuel efficient transportation,
  2. Heavy oil/Oil sands,
  3. Coal liquefaction,
  4. Enhanced oil recovery,
  5. Gas-to-liquids.

Conclusions

The report came to the following conclusions:

Three scenarios

Applicability beyond the US, critical remarks

The Hirsch Report urged a crash program of new technologies and changes in manners and attitudes in the US and as well implying more research and development. The report cites a peaking crude oil supply as the main reason for immediate action.

During the significant oil price rise through 2007, a theme among several industry observers was that the price rise was only partially due to a limit in crude oil availability (peak oil). For example, an article by Jad Mouawad cited an unusual number of fires and other outages among U.S. refineries in the summer of 2007 which disrupted supply.[5] However, a lack of refining capacity would only seem to explain high gasoline prices not high crude oil prices. Indeed, if the refineries were unable to process available crude oil then there should be a crude oil glut that would reduce crude prices on international crude oil markets. Then again, sharp changes in crude oil prices can also be due to stock market volatility and fear over the security of future supplies, or, on the other hand, an anticipation by investors of a rise in the value of crude oil once refining capacity picks up again.

As for the global usefulness of the Hirsch conclusions, as of 2004, the US share of global oil consumption was about 26%, while its share of world population was only 4.3%; Europe used 11% of global oil while having about 6.8% of world population. An average car in Germany uses about 8.1 liter per 100 km; the US consumption 16.2 L. In US terms, 1 gallon delivers 44 miles in Germany but only 22 in the United States.

So far a part of the changes ultimately requested by Hirsch for the US have been already implemented in Europe (and cum grano salis in Asia). The difference had been much smaller at the start of the 70s. Europe adapted more after the various oil shocks and enhanced the changes by introducing much higher taxes on gasoline. The differences now are not only a lack of energy saving technologies, in car building and usage, and passive insulation of buildings in the US. The traditional significant differences in the setup and density of settlements, share of suburbs, use of public transport and consumer behavior have been widening. Taking this into account, a peak oil shock as outlined by Hirsch will have a much more severe outcome in the US compared to other parts of the world, especially Europe.

See also

References

  1. ↑ Hirsch, Robert L.; Bezdek, Roger; Wendling, Robert (February 2005). "Peaking Of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management" (PDF). Science Applications International Corporation, U.S. Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory. Retrieved 28 November 2009.
  2. ↑ Hirsch, Robert L. (February 2007). "Peaking of World Oil Production: Recent Forecasts" (PDF). Science Applications International Corporation, U.S. Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory. Retrieved 19 February 2015.
  3. ↑ Hirsch, Robert L. (October 2005). "The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production" (PDF). Atlantic Council. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 16, 2011. Retrieved 2016-01-06.
  4. ↑ Robert Hirsch – Interim Observations, Peak Oil TV, Vimeo (video)
  5. ↑ Mouawad, Jad (22 July 2007). "Record Failures at Oil Refineries Raise Gas Prices". The New York Times.

External links

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