James Annan

James D. Annan is a scientist involved in climate prediction. He was a member of the Global Warming Research Program at Frontier Research Centre for Global Change which is associated with the Earth Simulator in Japan. In 2014 he left Japan, returning to the United Kingdom as a co-founder of Blue Skies Research.[1]

Climatology

He is most known for considering bets against climate skeptics. Many skeptics, including Richard Lindzen, have indicated they believe the scientific consensus on climate change to be incorrect. The November 10, 2004 online version of Reason magazine reported that Lindzen is "willing to take bets that global average temperatures in 20 years will in fact be lower than they are now."[2] Annan contacted Lindzen to arrange a bet and they exchanged proposals for bets, but were unable to agree on terms. The final proposal was a bet that if the temperature change were less than 0.2 °C (0.36 °F), Lindzen would win. If the temperature change were between 0.2 °C and 0.4 °C the bet would be off, and if the temperature change were 0.4 °C or greater, Annan would win. Lindzen would take 2 to 1 odds.[3]

In 2005, another bet for $10,000 dollars was arranged with a pair of Russian solar physicists Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev.[4] The bet will conclude in 2017.

A third bet in 2007 between Annan and David Whitehouse of the Global Warming Policy Foundation was arranged by the BBC Radio program, More or Less in 2007. Annan and Whitehouse bet £100 on whether the Met Office temperature would set a new annual record by the end of 2011. Annan was declared to have lost in the program on 2012-01-13.[5]

He considers that climate sensitivity uncertainty is less than has often been portrayed. Papers on this include "Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity".[6]

References

  1. ↑ Hargreaves, Julia; James Annan. "Blue Skies Research". Retrieved 2014-02-06.
  2. ↑ Bailey, Ronald (November 10, 2005). "Two Sides to Global Warming". Reason Magazine. Archived from the original on 2007-03-13. Retrieved 2007-04-05.
  3. ↑ Bailey, Ronald (June 8, 2005). "Betting on Climate Change". Reason Magazine. Archived from the original on 2007-03-13. Retrieved 2007-04-05.
  4. ↑ David Adam (19 August 2005). "Climate change sceptics bet $10,000 on cooler world". Guardian Unlimited. Retrieved 2007-09-10.
  5. ↑ "More or Less, High Speed 2 and Executive Pay". BBC. 2011-01-13. Retrieved 2012-01-13. Tim Harford ... resolves a four year-old bet on climate change between climate scientist James Annan and astrophysicist David Whitehouse
  6. ↑ "Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity". Geophysical Research Letters. March 18, 2006. Retrieved 2016-01-14.

External links

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