NBA draft lottery

The NBA draft lottery is an annual event held since 1985 by the National Basketball Association (NBA), in which the teams who had missed the playoffs (top 14 picks) in the previous season, or teams who hold the draft rights of another team that missed the playoffs in the previous season, participate in a lottery process to determine the draft order in the NBA draft. In the NBA draft, the teams obtain the rights to amateur U.S. college basketball players and other eligible players, including international players. The lottery winner would get the first selection in the draft. The term "lottery pick" denotes a draft pick whose position is determined through the lottery, while the non-playoff teams involved in the process are often called "lottery teams".

Under the current rules, only the top three picks are decided by the lottery, and are chosen from the 14 teams that do not make the playoffs (with the number of lottery chances per each of the 14 teams being weighted according to record). The lottery is weighted so that the team with the worst record, or the team that holds the draft rights of the team with the worst record, has the best chance to obtain a higher draft pick. After the top three positions are selected (from the lottery slotting system), the remainder of the first-round draft order is in inverse order of the win-loss record for the remaining teams, or the teams who originally held the lottery rights if they were traded. The lottery does not determine the draft order in the subsequent rounds of the draft.

History

Before 1985: Territorial picks and coin flip

Further information: NBA territorial pick

In the earlier drafts, the teams would draft in reverse order of their win-loss record. However, a special territorial-pick rule allowed a team to draft a player from its local area. If a team decided to use its territorial pick, it forfeited its first-round pick in the draft. The territorial pick rules remained until the NBA revamped the draft system in 1966.[1]

In 1966 the NBA introduced a coin flip between the worst teams in each division to determine who would obtain the first overall draft pick. The team who lost the coin flip would get the second pick, while the rest of the first-round picks were determined in reverse order of the win-loss record. In this system, the second-worst team would never have a chance to obtain the first pick if it was in the same division with the worst team. The coin flip meant that both teams had an equal chance to draft first. The coin-flip system remained in operation until 1984.[1]

1985–1989: Early lottery system

After the 1984 coin flip, which was won by the Houston Rockets, the NBA introduced the lottery system to counter the accusations that the Rockets and several other teams were deliberately losing their regular season games in order to secure the worst record and consequently the chance to obtain the first pick.[2][3] The lottery system involved a random drawing of an envelope from a hopper. Inside each of the envelopes were the non-playoff team names. The team whose envelope was drawn first would get the first pick. The process was then repeated until the rest of the lottery picks were determined. In this system, each non-playoff team had an equal chance to obtain the first pick. The rest of the first-round picks were determined in reverse order of the win-loss record.[4]

Starting from 1987, the NBA modified the lottery system so that only the first three picks were determined by the lottery. After the three envelopes were drawn, the remaining non-playoff teams would select in reverse order of their win-loss record. This meant that the team with the worst record could receive no worse than the fourth selection, the second-worst team could pick no lower than fifth, and so on.[5]

The New York Knicks were the first winner of the lottery in 1985. They selected Georgetown University standout Patrick Ewing with their first overall pick. However, speculation arose that the NBA had rigged the lottery so that the Knicks would be assured to get the first pick.[2][3][4] Even though the envelope system was highly criticized, it was used until 1989 before being replaced by the weighted lottery system in 1990.[6]

1990–present: Weighted lottery system

In 1990, the NBA changed the format of the lottery to give the team with the worst record the best chance of landing the first pick. For the 11 non-playoff teams that season, the team with the worst record would have 11 chances (out of 66) to obtain the first pick, the second worst would have 10 chances, and so on. Similarly to the previous system, this weighted lottery system was also used only to determine the first three picks, while the rest of the teams selected in reverse order of their win-loss records.

Despite the weighted odds, the Orlando Magic managed to win the lottery in 1993 with only one chance to obtain the first pick as it was the best non-playoff team in the previous season. In October 1993, the NBA modified the lottery system to give the team with the worst record a higher chance to win the draft lottery and to decrease the better teams' chances to win. The new system increased the chances of the worst team obtaining the first pick in the draft from 16.7 percent to 25 percent, while decreasing the chances of the best non-playoff team from 1.5 percent to 0.5 percent.

In the new system, 14 numbered table tennis balls were used. Then, a four-number combination from the 14 balls were drawn to determine the lottery winner. Prior to the draft, the NBA assigns 1,000 possible combinations to the non-playoff teams. The process was then repeated to determine the second and third pick.[1] The table below shows the lottery chances and the probabilities for each team to win the first pick in the weighted lottery system in 1993 and 1994 draft.[7]

1993 draft lottery 1994 draft lottery
Team1992–1993
record		Chances
(out of 66)		Probability Team1993–1994
record		Chances
(out of 1000)		Probability
1 Dallas 11–711116.67% Dallas 13–6925025.00%
2 Minnesota 19–631015.15% Detroit 20–6216416.40%
3 Washington 22–60913.64% Minnesota 20–6216416.40%
4 Sacramento 25–57812.12% Milwaukee 20–6216316.30%
5 Philadelphia 26–56710.61% Washington 24–58949.40%
6 Milwaukee 28–5469.09% Philadelphia 25–57666.60%
7 Golden State 34–4857.58% L.A. Clippers 27–55444.40%
8 Denver 36–4646.06% Sacramento 28–54272.70%
9 Miami 36–4634.55% Boston 32–50151.50%
10 Detroit 40–4223.03% L.A. Lakers 33–4980.80%
11 Orlando 41–4111.52% Charlotte 41–4150.50%

In 1995, the NBA had an agreement with the two expansion franchises, the Toronto Raptors and the Vancouver Grizzlies. The agreement stated that neither team would be eligible to obtain the first overall pick in the 1996, 1997 and 1998 Drafts, even if it won the lottery. The Raptors won the 1996 lottery but were forced to settle for the second pick. Another combination was drawn and resulted in the Philadelphia 76ers getting the first pick.[8] Two years later, the Grizzlies won the lottery and likewise had to pick second in the draft, while the L.A. Clippers obtained the first pick.[9]

Process

The lottery is normally held during either the third or fourth week of May.

To determine the winner, fourteen ping pong balls numbered 1–14 are placed in a standard lottery machine and four balls are randomly selected from the lot. Just as in most traditional lotteries, the order in which the numbers are drawn is not important. That is, 1-2-3-4 is considered to be the same as 4-3-2-1. There are a total of 1,001 combinations (or 14! / (10! x 4!)). Of these, 1 outcome is disregarded and 1,000 outcomes are distributed among the 14 non-playoff NBA teams. The combination 11-12-13-14 (in any order that those numbers are drawn) is not assigned and it is ignored if drawn; this has never occurred in practice.

In the event a lottery pick is traded to another team, the record of the original team (whose pick it was before the trade) still determines eligibility for the lottery, and assignment of chances.

Since 2005, with 30 NBA teams, 16 qualify for the playoffs and the remaining 14 teams are entered in the draft lottery. These 14 teams are ranked in reverse order of their regular season record and are assigned the following number of chances

  1. 250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
  2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
  3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
  4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
  5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
  6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
  7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
  8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
  9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
  10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
  11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
  12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
  13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
  14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

Here are the odds for each seed to get specific picks if there were no ties (rounded to 3 decimal places):

Seed Chances 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
1 250 .250 .215 .178 .357
2 199 .199 .188 .171 .319 .123
3 156 .156 .157 .156 .226 .265 .040
4 119 .119 .126 .133 .099 .351 .160 .012
5 88 .088 .097 .107 .261 .360 .084 .004
6 63 .063 .071 .081 .439 .305 .040 .001
7 43 .043 .049 .058 .599 .232 .018 .000
8 28 .028 .033 .039 .724 .168 .008 .000
9 17 .017 .020 .024 .813 .122 .004 .000
10 11 .011 .013 .016 .870 .089 .002 .000
11 8 .008 .009 .012 .907 .063 .001 .000
12 7 .007 .008 .010 .935 .039 .000
13 6 .006 .007 .009 .960 .018
14 5 .005 .006 .007 .982

In the event that teams finish with the same record, each tied team receives the average of the total number of combinations for the positions that they occupy. In 2007, the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Portland Trail Blazers tied for the sixth worst record. The average of the 6th and 7th positions in the lottery was taken, resulting in each team getting 53 combinations (the average of 63 and 43). Should the average number not be an integer, a coin flip is then used to determine which team or teams receive the extra combination. The result of the coin flip is also used to determine who receives the earlier pick in the event that neither of the tied teams wins one of the first three picks via the lottery.

The lottery is conducted with witnesses (from the accounting firm Ernst & Young) verifying that all 14 balls are represented once as they are placed in the lottery machine. The balls are placed in the machine for 20 seconds to randomize before having the first ball drawn. The remaining three balls are drawn at 10-second intervals. NBA officials determine which team holds the winning combination and that franchise is awarded the #1 overall draft pick. The four balls are returned to the machine and the process is repeated to determine the second and third picks. In the event that a combination belongs to a team that has already won its pick (or if the one unassigned combination comes up), the round is repeated until a unique winner is determined. When the first three teams have been determined, the remaining picks are given out based on regular season record with the worst teams getting the highest picks. This assures each team that it can drop no more than three spots from its projected draft position.

A simple explanation: 1000 different outcomes of an experiment exist and are equally likely to occur. A certain number of outcomes is assigned to each non-playoff NBA team. The largest number of outcomes is assigned to the team with the worst record. The team with the second worst record gets the second largest number of outcomes, and so on for each of the 14 teams in the lottery. The experiment is conducted, and the team to which the winning outcome was assigned receives the 1st pick in the NBA draft. The experiment is conducted again. If the winner is the same team that already won, the experiment is performed over again until there is a different winner. The winner of the second experiment receives the 2nd pick. The winner of the third experiment receives the 3rd pick. After the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd picks are determined, the 4th-14th picks are assigned to teams based on weakness of record.

In a case where a lottery team trades its pick to a playoff team, the playoff team assumes the lottery team's position in all draft lottery situations, unless provisioned by the conditions of the trade.

On Wednesday, October 22, 2014 the NBA Board of Governors voted on a proposed reform to the lottery.[10] If the proposed changes passed, the four worst teams in the league would have been given identical odds (around 11 percent) at winning the top pick in the draft. The fifth team would have a 10 percent chance and the odds would decrease for each team picking after.[11] The proposed changes would take away the advantage of having the worst record in the league (currently the worst team is given a 25% chance at the pick), and would work to keep teams competitive throughout the entire season. The final vote was 17-13 in favor of the reform, but that was short of the required 23 votes needed to push the change through.[12]

Lottery ceremony

The drawing of the ping-pong balls is conducted in private, though observed by independent auditors and representatives from each team. The results are subsequently presented in a short ceremony (typically broadcast prior to or during halftime of an NBA playoff game), in which the order of the lottery is announced in reverse order, from the fourteenth selection to the first. Representatives from each NBA franchise with a lottery pick are present at the lottery ceremony.

The decision of not showing the ping-pong balls live has fueled speculation that the NBA will occasionally fix the draft lottery if it can benefit the league. The speculation originated with the 1985 draft lottery that sent Patrick Ewing to New York, with the theory being that the NBA wanted to send the best player in the draft to New York to increase ratings in a large television market. At that time the NBA used 7 envelopes in a tumbler representing the seven teams with the worst record. It has been speculated by some[13][14][15] that the envelope containing the Knicks logo was refrigerated beforehand, enabling David Stern to recognize and select it. Another conspiracy theory suggests that one of the seven envelopes was thrown into the tumbler, causing one of the corners to fold. After the envelopes were mixed, Stern took a deep breath before reaching into the tumbler and picking the envelope with the folded corner. [16] No one has ever explained why all the other teams would go along with the fix. Afterward the Draft Lottery Format was changed to the current ping-pong ball lottery in a private room with team representatives. However, despite the lack of any evidence, conspiracy theories still persist regarding the annual outcome of the lottery.[17][18][19][20]

Lottery winners

Visual representation of the following table.

The largest upset in the lottery occurred in 1993 when the Magic won the lottery with just a 1.5% chance to win. The second largest upsets occurred in 2008 and in 2014 when the Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers both won their respective lotteries with just a 1.7% chance.[21] In 1999, the Charlotte Hornets also overcame long odds in the draft lottery when they won the third pick despite having the best record among all non-playoff teams and only a 1.83% chance of winning a top-three pick.[22] Since the lottery was introduced in 1985, only 18 of 30 NBA teams have won the lottery. The Los Angeles Clippers have won five lotteries, although two of them were conveyed to other teams in trades prior to the lottery. The Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers are second with three lottery wins each. Since the weighted lottery system introduced in 1990, only four teams with the worst record went on to win the lottery while only four teams with the second-worst record have won the lottery.

Year Team Previous season
record		 Lottery
chances		 Probability Player selected
1985 New York Knicks 24–58 (3rd-worst) — 14.29%[lower-alpha 1] Ewing, PatrickPatrick Ewing
1986 Los Angeles Clippers
(conveyed to the Cleveland Cavaliers via Philadelphia 76ers)[lower-alpha 2]		 32–50 (7th-worst) — 14.29%[lower-alpha 1] Daugherty, BradBrad Daugherty
1987 San Antonio Spurs 28–54 (4th-worst) — 14.29%[lower-alpha 1] Robinson, DavidDavid Robinson
1988 Los Angeles Clippers 17–65 (Worst) — 14.29%[lower-alpha 1] Manning, DannyDanny Manning
1989 Sacramento Kings 27–55 (6th-worst) — 11.11%[lower-alpha 3] Ellison, PervisPervis Ellison
1990 New Jersey Nets 17–65 (Worst) 11 (out of 66) 16.67% Coleman, DerrickDerrick Coleman
1991 Charlotte Hornets 26–56 (5th-worst) 7 (out of 66) 10.61% Johnson, LarryLarry Johnson
1992 Orlando Magic 21–61 (2nd-worst) 10 (out of 66) 15.15% O'Neal, ShaquilleShaquille O'Neal
1993 Orlando Magic 41–41 (11th-worst) 1 (out of 66) 1.52% Webber, ChrisChris Webber
1994 Milwaukee Bucks 20–62 (2nd-worst) 163 (out of 1000) 16.30% Robinson, GlennGlenn Robinson
1995 Golden State Warriors 26–56 (5th-worst) 94 (out of 1000) 9.40% Smith, JoeJoe Smith
1996 Philadelphia 76ers 18–64 (2nd-worst) 200 (out of 593)[lower-alpha 4] 33.73% Iverson, AllenAllen Iverson
1997 San Antonio Spurs 20–62 (3rd-worst) 157 (out of 727)[lower-alpha 4] 21.60% Duncan, TimTim Duncan
1998 Los Angeles Clippers 17–65 (3rd-worst) 157 (out of 696)[lower-alpha 4] 22.56% Olowokandi, MichaelMichael Olowokandi
1999 Chicago Bulls 13–37[lower-alpha 5] (3rd-worst) 157 (out of 1000) 15.70% Brand, EltonElton Brand
2000 New Jersey Nets 31–51 (7th-worst) 44 (out of 1000) 4.40% Martin, KenyonKenyon Martin
2001 Washington Wizards 19–63 (3rd-worst) 157 (out of 1000) 15.70% Brown, KwameKwame Brown
2002 Houston Rockets 28–54 (5th-worst) 89 (out of 1000) 8.90% Yao Ming, Yao Ming
2003 Cleveland Cavaliers 17–65 (T-Worst) 225 (out of 1000) 22.50% James, LeBronLeBron James
2004 Orlando Magic 21–61 (Worst) 250 (out of 1000) 25.00% Howard, DwightDwight Howard
2005 Milwaukee Bucks 30–52 (6th-worst) 63 (out of 1000) 6.30% Bogut, AndrewAndrew Bogut
2006 Toronto Raptors 27–55 (5th-worst) 88 (out of 1000) 8.80% Bargnani, AndreaAndrea Bargnani
2007 Portland Trail Blazers 32–50 (6th-worst) 53 (out of 1000) 5.30% Oden, GregGreg Oden
2008 Chicago Bulls 33–49 (9th-worst) 17 (out of 1000) 1.70% Rose, DerrickDerrick Rose
2009 Los Angeles Clippers 19–63 (2nd-worst)[lower-alpha 6] 177 (out of 1000) 17.70% Griffin, BlakeBlake Griffin
2010 Washington Wizards 26–56 (5th-worst) 103 (out of 1000) 10.30% Wall, JohnJohn Wall
2011 Los Angeles Clippers
(conveyed to the Cleveland Cavaliers)[lower-alpha 7]		 32–50 (8th-worst) 28 (out of 1000) 2.80% Irving, KyrieKyrie Irving
2012 New Orleans Hornets 21–45[lower-alpha 8] (T-3rd-worst) 137 (out of 1000) 13.70% Davis, AnthonyAnthony Davis
2013 Cleveland Cavaliers 24–58 (3rd-worst) 156 (out of 1000) 15.60% Bennett, AnthonyAnthony Bennett
2014 Cleveland Cavaliers 33–49 (9th-worst) 17 (out of 1000) 1.70% Wiggins, AndrewAndrew Wiggins
2015 Minnesota Timberwolves 16–66 (Worst) 250 (out of 1000) 25.00% Towns, Karl-AnthonyKarl-Anthony Towns
Notes
  1. 1 2 3 4 From 1985 to 1988, each of the 7 non-playoff teams had an equal chance to win the lottery, i.e. 14.29%.
  2. ↑ The Philadelphia 76ers obtained Los Angeles Clippers' first-round pick in a previous trade on October 6, 1979 that sent Joe Bryant to the Clippers.[23] On June 16, 1986, after the lottery and a day before the draft, the 76ers traded the first pick to the Cleveland Cavaliers in exchange for Roy Hinson.[24]
  3. ↑ In 1989, each of the 9 non-playoff teams had an equal chance to win the lottery, i.e. 11.11%.
  4. 1 2 3 The Toronto Raptors and the Vancouver Grizzlies were not eligible to win the lottery in 1996, 1997 and 1998 due to their expansion agreement. Therefore, their lottery combinations for the first pick were excluded.
  5. ↑ Due to the 1998–99 NBA lockout, the season was shortened to 50 games per team.[25]
  6. ↑ The Los Angeles Clippers and the Washington Wizards had identical 19–63 records for 2nd-worst record in the NBA. However, the Wizards won the tiebreaker and were awarded one extra lottery combination.[26]
  7. ↑ The Cleveland Cavaliers had two lottery picks, their own pick and the Los Angeles Clippers' pick. The Cavaliers obtained the Clippers' first-round pick from a previous trade on February 24, 2011 that sent Mo Williams and Jamario Moon to the Clippers and Baron Davis to the Cavaliers.[27] The Cavaliers, who had the second-worst record (19–63), had a combined total of 227 chances (22.7%) to win the lottery, which consists of 199 chances (19.9%) from their own pick and 28 chances (2.8%) from the Clippers' pick.[28][29]
  8. ↑ Due to the 2011 NBA lockout, the season was shortened to 66 games per team.[30]

See also

References

General
Specific
  1. 1 2 3 Dengate, Jeff (May 16, 2007). "Let the Ping-Pong Balls Fall". NBA.com. Turner Sports Interactive, Inc. Retrieved August 22, 2009.
  2. 1 2 Bondy, Filip (May 22, 2005). "The Draft That Changed It All. Tanks to '84, the lottery was born". NYDailyNews.com (New York: Daily News, L.P). Retrieved August 22, 2009.
  3. 1 2 DuPree, David (June 25, 2007). "25 drafts, dozens of stars, one Michael". USA Today (Gannett Co. Inc). Retrieved August 22, 2009.
  4. 1 2 Litke, Jim (March 28, 2007). "Tanking games? If only NBA's bad teams were that good". SportingNews.com. Sporting News. Retrieved August 22, 2009.
  5. ↑ "League has used variety of methods to determine No. 1 pick". The Indianapolis Star. May 22, 2007. Retrieved October 4, 2009.
  6. ↑ Blinebury, Fran (May 19, 2009). "Winning the Lottery is easy; picking the right player is not". NBA.com. Turner Sports Interactive, Inc. Retrieved August 22, 2009.
  7. ↑ Florke, Chad R.; Ecker, Mark D. (December 1, 2003). "NBA Draft Lottery Probabilities" (PDF). University of Northern Iowa. Retrieved August 22, 2009.
  8. ↑ Lawrence, Mitch (January 12, 2003). "'New' Charlotte Gets Fast Break". NYDailyNews.com (New York: Daily News, L.P). Retrieved August 22, 2009.
  9. ↑ "Clippers Get Pick Of The Litter". CBS News (CBS Interactive Inc). May 17, 1998. Retrieved August 22, 2009.
  10. ↑ "Lottery Reform Vote Set to Pass?". basketballinsiders.com.
  11. ↑ Higin, Sean. "Report: Board of Governors expected to pass draft lottery reform, Sixers and Thunder opposed". probasketballtalk.com. Retrieved 2014-10-21.
  12. ↑ "Lottery reform falls short of passing". ESPN.com. October 22, 2014. Retrieved April 20, 2015.
  13. ↑ "Griffin the big gift at lottery's 25th anniversary". USA Today. May 18, 2009. Retrieved May 20, 2010.
  14. ↑ McManis, Sam (May 14, 1985). "NBA's New Showtime: It's Called the Lottery". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved May 20, 2010.
  15. ↑ Rovell, Darren (May 16, 2002). "NBA out to prove conspiracy theorists wrong". ESPN.com. ESPN Internet Ventures. Retrieved April 8, 2012.
  16. ↑ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bX1kMlG8c7Y
  17. ↑ Dengate, Jeff (May 16, 2007). "Let the Ping-Pong Balls Fall". NBA.com. Archived from the original on June 13, 2012.
  18. ↑ Schoenfield, David (June 29, 2009). "The first lottery draft still rates the best". ESPN.com. Archived from the original on June 13, 2012.
  19. ↑ Helin, Kurt. "David Stern expects your draft conspiracy theories now". nbcsports.com. Archived from the original on June 13, 2012.
  20. ↑ "David Stern, Jim Rome battle on radio". ESPN.com. June 13, 2012. Archived from the original on June 13, 2012.
  21. ↑ Matuszewski, Erik (May 21, 2008). "Bulls Win NBA's Draft Lottery, Eye Beasley, Rose With Top Pick". Bloomberg. Bloomberg L.P. Retrieved August 22, 2009.
  22. ↑ "NBA.com:Year-By-Year Lottery Probabilities".
  23. ↑ "All-Time Transactions". NBA.com/Clippers. Turner Sports Interactive, Inc. Retrieved August 22, 2009.
  24. ↑ "Roy Hinson NBA & ABA Statistics". basketball-reference.com. Retrieved April 8, 2012.
  25. ↑ Beck, Howard (February 14, 2009). "N.B.A. and Union Are Discussing New Labor Deal". The New York Times (The New York Times Company). Retrieved February 22, 2009.
  26. ↑ "Ties broken for Draft 2009 order of selection". NBA.com. Turner Sports Interactive, Inc. April 17, 2009. Retrieved August 17, 2010.
  27. ↑ "Baron Davis traded for Williams, Moon". ESPN.com. ESPN Internet Ventures. February 24, 2011. Retrieved April 8, 2012.
  28. ↑ "Cavaliers win draft lottery, will pick No. 1". NBA.com. Turner Sports Interactive, Inc. May 17, 2011. Retrieved May 18, 2011.
  29. ↑ "Cavs win No. 1 pick; Wolves 2nd". ESPN.com. ESPN Internet Ventures. May 18, 2011. Retrieved May 18, 2011.
  30. ↑ Beck, Howard (November 28, 2011). "Two Exhibition Games for N.B.A. Teams". The New York Times. Retrieved November 28, 2011.

External links

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