Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, now called Magellan Strategies, is a survey research firm with offices in Louisville, Colorado and Geismar, Louisiana. Magellan provides data and information services to Republican Party candidates, conservative political organizations, as well as serving public affairs firms and businesses. The firm was founded in November 2006.

The firm helps elucidated public opinion for Republican candidates and conservative organizations and helps their voter targeting. Its data services are designed to boost the efficacy of political campaigns and public outreach programs.

In addition to data management, modelling and enhancement, Magellan's information services include predictive analytics, quantitative survey research, mapping and redistricting, and voter registration and targeting. Magellan also provides donor and voter registration databases.

Magellan is a member of the Marketing Research Association, the American Association for Public Opinion Research, and the American Association of Political Consultants. The firm receives business from the Republican National Committee and Americans for Prosperity. The firms website in 2010 had a headline "Magellan Strategies Helping Republicans Win Elections".[1]

Survey weighting methodology

Magellan Strategies maintains and uses a national database of registered voters to determine their survey sampling weights by gender, age group, party registration and race. The firm does take into account past exit polling for a state or district when determining final survey weighting, but the principals of the firm consider exit polling data secondary and much less accurate than aggregated vote history from a complete and accurate voter registration database with solid vote history.

Public polling track record

Magellan was criticized for making an inaccurate prediction that Tom Tancredo would win the 2010 Colorado Governors Election. 2010 gubernatorial election in Colorado. Magellan CEO & President David Flaherty flatly stated that “Tom Tancredo will become Colorado's next governor,” on Friday, October 29, 2010. Tom Tancredo lost to Democrat John Hickenlooper on election day, November 2. Hickenlooper resoundingly beat Tancredo by a margin of 51% to 36%. Editorial page editor Curtis Hubbard of the Denver Post gave Magellan his "Agony of Defeat" award for the worst poll in the gubernatorial race.[2] (In September 2011, Hubbard praised Magellan for correctly predicting the outcome of the New York Ninth Congressional District race.[3])

New Hampshire Primary poll

In mid-November 2011, a Magellan poll conducted for the New Hampshire Journal surprisingly reported that Newt Gingrich had surged in New Hampshire, which hosts the first Presidential nominating primary. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney had long led polls in New Hampshire, yet the Magellan Poll seemingly revealed he had lost a quarter of his support.

The Magellan Poll reported that Romney had 29% of the support of surveyed voters while Gingrich was in a virtual statistical tie with 27%. By contrast, a Bloomberg News poll conducted less than a week before the Magellan Poll put Romney's support in New Hampshire at 40% and Gingrich at 11%.

In a Twitter tweet, National Journal Online polling editor Steven Shepherd revealed that the Magellan Poll had made significant sampling errors, by over-sampling senior citizens. Twenty-eight percent of the respondents of The Magellan Poll in question had been voters aged 65 years or older, whereas Shepherd cited a 2008 Republican exit poll as a baseline in which that demographic group only accounted for 15% of respondents.[4] The Magellan Poll also under-sampled voters in the 18-34 range. Additionally, the poll was conducted as a robo-call targeting landline telephones and ignored cell phones. Michael Brendan Dougherty of Business Insider characterized it as "a useless poll beyond generating over-cooked headlines."[5]

A story in the New York Times on December 16 reported "Signs of trouble emerged for Mr. Romney in New Hampshire on Nov. 18, the day a poll in The New Hampshire Journal showed for the first time that Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich were essentially tied, defying months of data that had suggested Mr. Romney’s lead in the state was unassailable. His aides, who had considered the state a political firewall, were suddenly spooked, said two people who have advised the campaign. The campaign dug into the numbers, and found what they considered flaws, but also unmistakable evidence of an ascent by Mr. Gingrich. A person who has advised Mr. Romney in the past said, "That rattled them".[6]

References

  1. ↑ Martin, Laura. "Why you should ignore Carolyn Goodman's poll". The Sausage Factory. Retrieved 19 November 2011.
  2. ↑ Hubbard, Curtis. "Podium time for the pollsters". Denver Post. Retrieved 19 November 2011.
  3. ↑ Hubbard, Curtis. "Magellan gets its groove back". Denver Post. Retrieved 19 November 2011.
  4. ↑ Shepherd, Steve. "@HotlineSteve". Twitter. Retrieved 20 November 2011.
  5. ↑ Dougherty, Michael Brendan. "The Newt Gingrich Surge In New Hampshire Is Unbelievable - So Don't Believe It". Business Insider. Retrieved 20 November 2011.
  6. ↑ In a Tactical Shift, Romney Trains Sights on Gingrich

External links

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