Next Hungarian parliamentary election
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The next Hungarian parliamentary elections will be held in or before 2018.
Background
At the previous parliamentary election, in April 2014, the incumbent government — composed of the Fidesz and its satellite alliance the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP) — was able to achieve two-third majority consecutively for the second time with 44.87 percent of the votes. According to the critics, this overwhelming proportion was only because of the new election law (mostly due the introduction of compensation votes also for the individual winners) which adopted by the ruling coalition in 2011.[1] By early 2015, however, Fidesz lost its two-third majority following the 2014 Hungarian Internet tax protests and subsequent decrease of support.[2] The governing party suffered defeats at two parliamentary by-elections in February and April 2015, both in Veszprém County.[3][4]
The left-wing electoral alliance Unity which failed to win the 2014 national election and its five parties gained a total of only 38 seats, broke up shortly thereafter. Its former member parties (MSZP, Együtt–PM and DK) run at the May 2014 European Parliament election by own themselves, while MLP did not participate in the election at all. Due to this fragmentation of the left-wing opposition, the radical nationalist Jobbik came to the second place for the first time since its establishment.[5] The PM broke off the permanent nature of alliance with Együtt on 9 November 2014.[6]
After a few months of crisis period since November 2014, which was marked by internal conflicts (e.g. businessman Lajos Simicska's fallen grace within Fidesz) and corruption scandals,[7] the governing party regained much of its lost support during the European migrant crisis since Summer 2015, when Prime Minister Viktor Orbán announced the construction of a 4-metre-high (13 ft), 175-kilometre-long (109 mi) fence along its southern border with Serbia.[8] The Hungarian government also criticised the official European Union policy for not dissuading migrants from entering Europe.[9] The barrier became successful, since 17 October 2015 onward, thousands of migrants daily were diverted to Slovenia instead.[10]
On 13 December 2015, the 26th congress of the ruling Fidesz re-elected Viktor Orbán as party leader. Orbán said in his speech he is ready to led the party in the forthcoming parliamentary election and continue to serving as prime minister if the Fidesz will win the election again in 2018. With that step, Orbán has made it clear that he does not intend to become President of Hungary, succeeding János Áder during the 2017 indirect presidential election.[11]
Electoral system
The 199 members of the National Assembly will be elected by two methods; 106 will be elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting, with the remaining 93 elected from a single nationwide constituency by proportional representation. The electoral threshold is set at 5%, although this is raised to 10% for coalitions of two parties and 15% for coalitions of three or more parties, Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method.[12]
Opinion polls
Methodological note: The Hungarian pollsters generally release separate data about the support of political parties among all eligible voters (which tends to include a high percentage for "don't know/no preference"), and about the support of political parties among "active" or "certain" voters. The table below refers to the latter data.[lower-alpha 1]
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.
| Date | Polling Firm/Source | Fidesz | MSZP | Jobbik | LMP | Együtt | DK | PM | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15–20 Apr | Nézőpont | 40.0 | 13.0 | 26.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 14.0 |
| 14–20 Apr | Tárki | 47.0 | 18.0 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 27.0 |
| 8–12 Apr | Publicus | 46.0 | 20.0 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | N/A | 3.0 | 26.0 |
| 4–11 Apr | ZRI | 40.0 | 17.0 | 20.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | N/A | 4.0 | 20.0 |
| 18–21 Mar | Nézőpont | 41.0 | 12.0 | 24.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 17.0 |
| 10–17 Mar | Publicus | 47.0 | 21.0 | 18.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | N/A | 2.0 | 26.0 |
| 6–13 Mar | ZRI | 44.0 | 18.0 | 17.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | N/A | 4.0 | 26.0 |
| Mar | Republikon | 50.0 | 19.0 | 17.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | N/A | 1.0 | 31.0 |
| 20–25 Feb | Századvég | 46.0 | 14.0 | 23.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 23.0 |
| 18–28 Feb | Iránytű | 42.0 | 11.0 | 25.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 17.0 |
| 12–17 Feb | Nézőpont | 44.0 | 11.0 | 23.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 21.0 |
| 9–11 Feb | Publicus | 48.0 | 19.0 | 17.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | N/A | 4.0 | 29.0 |
| Feb | Republikon | 49.0 | 19.0 | 22.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | N/A | 0.0 | 27.0 |
| Feb | ZRI | 48.0 | 15.0 | 17.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | N/A | 5.0 | 31.0 |
| 22–27 Jan | Medián | 53.0 | 15.0 | 19.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 34.0 |
| 22–26 Jan | Századvég | 45.0 | 14.0 | 22.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 23.0 |
| 15–20 Jan | Tárki | 54.0 | 12.0 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 34.0 |
| 15–19 Jan | Nézőpont | 44.0 | 15.0 | 23.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 21.0 |
| 12–17 Jan | Publicus | 49.0 | 18.0 | 17.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | N/A | 4.0 | 31.0 |
| 2016 | ||||||||||
| 3–7 Dec | Nézőpont | 48.0 | 11.0 | 21.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 27.0 |
| 2–5 Dec | Publicus | 49.0 | 16.0 | 21.0 | 4.0 | N/A | 6.0 | N/A | 4.0 | 28.0 |
| 27 Nov–1 Dec | Medián | 51.0 | 11.0 | 21.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 30.0 |
| 14–19 Nov | Nézőpont | 48.0 | 9.0 | 22.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 26.0 |
| 17–21 Oct | Nézőpont | 45.0 | 10.0 | 22.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 23.0 |
| 16–23 Oct | Tárki | 51.0 | 14.0 | 23.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 28.0 |
| 14–26 Oct | Iránytű | 47.0 | 10.0 | 25.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 22.0 |
| 9–15 Oct | Publicus | 45.0 | 18.0 | 24.0 | 5.0 | N/A | 6.0 | N/A | 2.0 | 21.0 |
| 11–15 Sep | Medián | 50.0 | 15.0 | 22.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 28.0 |
| 7–15 Sep | Ipsos | 41.0 | 17.0 | 26.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 15.0 |
| 1–4 Sep | Századvég | 41.0 | 16.0 | 26.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | (Együtt) | 2.0 | 15.0 |
| 14–19 Aug | Nézőpont | 40.0 | 10.0 | 26.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 14.0 |
| 6–12 Aug | Publicus | 42.0 | 19.0 | 24.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | N/A | 4.0 | 18.0 |
| 24–29 Jul | Nézőpont | 41.0 | 11.0 | 26.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 15.0 |
| 17–21 Jul | Tárki | 39.0 | 19.0 | 24.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 15.0 |
| 19–25 Jun | Nézőpont | 41.0 | 12.0 | 26.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 15.0 |
| 10–14 Jun | Századvég | 40.0 | 15.0 | 27.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | (Együtt) | 2.0 | 13.0 |
| 7–9 Jul | Publicus | 42.0 | 20.0 | 23.0 | 5.0 | N/A | 5.0 | N/A | 5.0 | 19.0 |
| 3–11 Jun | Iránytű | 42.0 | 11.0 | 28.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 14.0 |
| 1–8 Jun | Ipsos | 38.0 | 15.0 | 28.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 10.0 |
| May | Medián | 44.0 | 12.0 | 24.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 20.0 |
| 16–22 May | Nézőpont | 39.0 | 12.0 | 25.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 14.0 |
| 20–25 Apr | Nézőpont | 36.0 | 13.0 | 28.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 |
| 16–23 Apr | Tárki | 38.0 | 17.0 | 24.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 14.0 |
| 12–19 Apr | Ipsos | 38.0 | 17.0 | 27.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 11.0 |
| 10–15 Apr | Századvég | 38.0 | 17.0 | 28.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | (Együtt) | 1.0 | 10.0 |
| 27–31 Mar | Medián | 40.0 | 17.0 | 25.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 15.0 |
| 21–27 Mar | Nézőpont | 44.0 | 10.0 | 23.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 21.0 |
| 6–13 Mar | Ipsos | 37.0 | 19.0 | 28.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 |
| 5–10 Mar | Századvég | 41.0 | 18.0 | 27.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | (Együtt) | 1.0 | 14.0 |
| 21–24 Feb | Nézőpont | 42.0 | 13.0 | 28.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 14.0 |
| 6–11 Feb | Medián | 45.0 | 17.0 | 21.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | (Együtt) | 2.0 | 24.0 |
| 5–10 Feb | Századvég | 45.0 | 19.0 | 25.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | (Együtt) | 1.0 | 20.0 |
| 1–7 Feb | Ipsos | 40.0 | 19.0 | 25.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 15.0 |
| 24–26 Jan | Nézőpont | 40.0 | 12.0 | 27.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | (Együtt) | 3.0 | 13.0 |
| 16–22 Jan | Tárki | 41.0 | 18.0 | 20.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | (Együtt) | 1.0 | 21.0 |
| 15–20 Jan | Századvég | 45.0 | 18.0 | 24.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | (Együtt) | 2.0 | 21.0 |
| 11–18 Jan | Iránytű | 39.0 | 15.0 | 24.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 15.0 |
| 3–10 Jan | Ipsos | 44.0 | 19.0 | 24.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 20.0 |
| 2015 | ||||||||||
| 15–20 Dec | Századvég | 44.0 | 17.0 | 22.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | (Együtt) | 3.0 | 22.0 |
| 9–16 Dec | Nézőpont | 40.0 | 12.0 | 24.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | (Együtt) | 3.0 | 16.0 |
| 1–8 Dec | Ipsos | 45.0 | 18.0 | 24.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 21.0 |
| 28 Nov–2 Dec | Medián | 38.0 | 19.0 | 27.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | (Együtt) | 4.0 | 11.0 |
| 13–23 Nov | Tárki | 45.0 | 20.0 | 21.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | (Együtt) | 0.0 | 24.0 |
| 10–17 Nov | Ipsos | 48.0 | 15.0 | 21.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | (Együtt) | 5.0 | 27.0 |
| 3–7 Nov | Nézőpont | 40.0 | 9.0 | 26.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 11.0 | (Együtt) | 2.0 | 14.0 |
| 14–20 Oct | Tárki | 55.0 | 16.0 | 17.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | (Együtt) | 1.0 | 38.0 |
| 1–7 Oct | Ipsos | 55.0 | 15.0 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | (Együtt) | 2.0 | 39.0 |
| 22–26 Sep | Nézőpont | 45.0 | 12.0 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 12.0 | (Együtt) | 0.0 | 25.0 |
| 22–25 Sep | Századvég | 54.0 | 15.0 | 17.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | (Együtt) | 2.0 | 37.0 |
| 19–23 Sep | Medián | 50.0 | 15.0 | 21.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | (Együtt) | 1.0 | 29.0 |
| 10–17 Sep | Tárki | 54.0 | 18.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | (Együtt) | 1.0 | 36.0 |
| 7–14 Sep | Ipsos | 56.0 | 16.0 | 17.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | (Együtt) | 0.0 | 39.0 |
| 25–30 Aug | Nézőpont | 42.0 | 11.0 | 26.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | (Együtt) | 0.0 | 16.0 |
| 5–12 Aug | Ipsos | 49.0 | 18.0 | 19.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | (Együtt) | 3.0 | 30.0 |
| 22–25 Jul | Századvég | 53.0 | 12.0 | 18.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | (Együtt) | 2.0 | 35.0 |
| 21–24 Jul | Nézőpont | 41.0 | 13.0 | 23.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | (Együtt) | 1.0 | 18.0 |
| 16–22 Jul | Tárki | 55.0 | 15.0 | 16.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | (Együtt) | 2.0 | 39.0 |
| 13–21 Jul | Ipsos | 56.0 | 15.0 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | (Együtt) | 3.0 | 40.0 |
| 12–18 Jul | Iránytű | 51.0 | 10.0 | 19.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | (Együtt) | 2.0 | 32.0 |
| 16–18 Jun | Nézőpont | 47.0 | 14.0 | 19.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | (Együtt) | 0.0 | 28.0 |
| 11–17 Jun | Tárki | 56.0 | 16.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | (Együtt) | 1.0 | 40.0 |
| 6–13 Jun | Ipsos | 57.0 | 10.0 | 18.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | (Együtt) | 1.0 | 39.0 |
| 25 May | EP Election | 51.5 | 10.9 | 14.7 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 9.8 | (Együtt) | 0.9 | 36.8 |
| 14–18 May | Nézőpont | 46.0 | 17.0 | 15.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | (Együtt) | 2.0 | 29.0 |
| 7–15 May | Tárki | 55.0 | 15.0 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | (Együtt) | 3.0 | 39.0 |
| 6–13 May | Ipsos | 56.0 | 16.0 | 17.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | (Együtt) | 1.0 | 39.0 |
| 6–8 May | Nézőpont | 46.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | (Együtt) | 0.0 | 31.0 |
| 25–29 Apr | Medián | 56.0 | 14.0 | 17.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | (Együtt) | 3.0 | 39.0 |
| 6 Apr 2014 | National Election | 44.9 | 25.6 | 20.2 | 5.3 | (Unity) | (Unity) | (Együtt) | 4.0 | 19.3 |
Notes
- ↑ In addition, confusingly, two pollsters publish parallel data even about "active" or "certain" voters. Thus, Medián publishes different numbers for the categories of "választani tudók" and "választani tudó "biztos" szavazók", though they don't tend to differ much – the data in the table here generally refers to the latter. Tárki's polling releases always highlight results about "A pártok támogatottsága a pártválasztók körében", and those are included in the table here (and can be reviewed further back into time in this database on their website), but their website also provides a separate database with somewhat different polling data on "A pártok támogatottságának alakulása a biztos szavazó pártválasztók körében". Finally, in February 2013 Nézőpont switched to a system in which it distinguishes between "the entire population" and "active voters", but even the "active voters" sample always includes a percentage of those who are "undecided but favour a change in government" and a percentage of those who are "undecided altogether". Those numbers are given in the footnotes for each Nézőpont poll in the table.
References
- ↑ "Így csinált a Fidesz kétharmadot az egyszerű többségből" (in Hungarian). 24.hu. 15 April 2014. Retrieved 25 January 2016.
- ↑ "Példátlanul nagyot zuhant a Fidesz és Orbán népszerűsége". Index.hu. 10 December 2014.
- ↑ "Hungary’s Ruling Party Loses Two-Thirds Majority after By-Election". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 22 February 2015.
- ↑ Dull, Szabolcs. "Győzött a Jobbik a tapolcai választáson". Index.hu. Retrieved 12 April 2015.
- ↑ "Kezdődik az MSZP végjátéka". 26 May 2014. Retrieved 27 May 2014.
- ↑ "Megszűnt az Együtt-PM szövetség". 9 November 2014. Retrieved 9 November 2014.
- ↑ "Thousands protest against corruption, gov’t policies". Politics.hu. 17 November 2014.
- ↑ "Hungary to fence off border with Serbia to stop migrants". Reuters. 17 June 2015. Retrieved 28 August 2015.
- ↑ Anemona Hartocollis, Dan Bilefsky, and James Kanter (3 September 2015). "Hungary Defends Handling of Migrants Amid Chaos at Train Station". The New York Times. Retrieved 3 September 2015.
- ↑ Barbara Surk and Stephen Castle (17 October 2015). "Hungary Closes Border, Changing Refugees’ Path". The New York Times. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
- ↑ "Orbán ráfordult a 2018-as kampányra" (in Hungarian). Index.hu. 13 December 2015. Retrieved 15 December 2015.
- ↑ Electoral system IPU
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