Next Saarland state election

Saarland state election, 2017

March 26, 2017

All 51 seats of the Landtag of the Saarland 26 seats needed for a majority   Leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer TBD Oskar Lafontaine Party CDU SPD Left Leader since 28 May 2011[1] TBD in 2016 9 August 2008 Last election 19 seats, 35.2% 17 seats, 30.6% 9 seats, 16.1% Current seats 19 18 8 Seats needed 7 8 18   Leader TBD Hubert Ulrich Party Pirates Green Leader since TBD 16 May 2012 Last election 4 seats, 7.4% 2 seats, 5.0% Current seats 3 3 Seats needed 23 23

Incumbent Minister-President Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer CDU

The next Saarland state elections is scheduled to be hold on March 26, 2017.^[2][3] At stake will be the 51 seats in the Landtag of Saarland. The incumbent Minister-President Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, currently leading a Grand coalition^[4] of her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD), will seek re-election after serving two terms as Minister-President.^[5]

Background

The Saarland state election, 2012 was a snap election called due to the collaps of the Jamaica coalition of CDU, Free Democrats (FDP) and the Green Party on 6 January 2012. The result of the election was a victory for the governing Christian Democrats, while the FDP suffered enormous losses. The party thus failed to achieve parliamentary representation. The Greens lost voters, but obtained seats by getting enough votes to reach the 5 percent threshold. The oppositional Social Democrats led by Heiko Maas increased their number of seats and votes, but failed to become the largest party in parliament. The Left Party suffered moderate losses. The Pirate Party secured parliamentary representation for the first time in a Western German regional parliament.^[6]

Parties and Candidates

CDU

Likely

• Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has been Minister-President since 2011 and is expected to run again as the CDU candidate, although media speculated she could follow Angela Merkel as Chancellor in case she resigns.^[5]

SPD

Possible

• Anke Rehlinger has been deputy Minister-President since 2013 and it is likely that she will be leading her party in the next state election.^[5]
• Charlotte Britz is the current mayor of Saarbrücken. She was elected twice and is said to have the intention to become the Social Democratic candidate in the election.^[5]

Unlikely

• Heiko Maas has been Federal Minister of Justice since 2013 after having been unable to reach a majority for the SPD in the elections in 2004, 2009 and 2012. It is expected that he will stay in Federal politics instead of returning to state politics in Saarland.^[5]

The Left

Possible

• Oskar Lafontaine, former Minister-President, did not exclude a candidature in 2017, but said, he needed to wait for "the health check".^[7]

Pirate Party

Declined

• Jasmin Maurer and Michael Hilberer both announced, that the whole current parliamentary group will not seek re-election in 2017.^[8]

Alliance '90/The Greens

Likely

• Hubert Ulrich has been holding the position of the parliamentary group leader since 2004 and from 1994 to 1999.

Declined

• Simone Peter ran for the Greens in the 2012 election, but resigned from state Parliament in 2013 after having been elected as national leader of the Greens.^[9]

Opinion Polls

Voting Intention

Date	Polling Firm/Source									Others	Lead
31 March 2015	Infratest dimap	40.0	33.0	10.0	1.0	6.0	–	–	4.0	6.0	7.0
25 May 2014	EU Parliament election	34.9	34.4	6.6	1.7	6.0	1.5	2.2	6.8	5.9	0.5
14 May 2014	Infratest dimap	37.0	34.0	13.0	2.0	5.0	–	–	5.0	4.0	3.0
22 Sep 2013	Federal Election	37.8	31.0	10.0	2.6	5.7	1.2	3.8	5.2	3.9	5.6
7 May 2013	Infratest dimap	39.0	36.0	10.0	2.0	6.0	–	2.0	3.0	2.0	3.0
25 Mar 2012	2012 election	35.2	30.6	16.1	7.4	5.0	1.7	1.2	–	4.4	2.9

Preferred Minister-President

Date	Polling Firm/Source	AKK	AR	HM	None
31 March 2015	Infratest dimap	62.0	18.0	–	9.0
14 May 2014	Infratest dimap	53.0	–	35.0	6.0
7 May 2013	Infratest dimap	53.0	–	36.0	7.0

References

1. The party leader: Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, cdu-saar.de (German)
2. Election dates in Germany, wahlrecht.de (German)
3. Vor dem Wahlkampf: Elefantenrunde ohne Berührungsängste, Saarbrücker Zeitung (German), 13 Feb 2016
4. Kramp-Karrenbauer für Fortsetzung der großen Koalition im Saarland, focus.de (German), 2 Oct 2014
5. Die „rote Charlotte“ hält sich bereit, Frankfurter Allgemeine (German), 29 May 2015
6. Merkel's party wins German state election, AlJazeera (English), 25 Mar 2012
7. Lafontaine schließt Spitzenkandidatur nicht aus, T-Online (German), 12 Feb 2015
8. „Piraten-Fraktion wird es nicht mehr geben“, Saarbrücker Zeitung (German), 31 Mar 2016
9. Doppelspitze mit Özdemir: Grüne wählen Simone Peter zur neuen Chefin, SPIEGEL Online (German), 19 Oct 2013