Opinion polling for the Catalan parliamentary election, 2015

In the run up to the Catalonian parliamentary election of 2015, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Catalonia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 25 November 2012, to the present day. President Artur Mas has announced that the next parliamentary election will be held on 27 September 2015.[1]

Vote estimations

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Color key:

      Multi-scenario poll       Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls       Exit poll

Polling Firm/Link Last Date
of Polling

Margin
of Error
Sample
Size
Lead
Regional Election September 27, 2015 39.6 12.7 8.5 w. 2.5 17.9 8.2 w. 8.9 21.7
TNS Demoscopia September 27, 2015 40.7 12.0 7.7 w. 2.9 15.4 9.1 w. 10.4 ±0.6 pp 30,000 25.3
Directe.cat September 26, 2015 42 12 9 w. 16 8 w. 10 26
GAD3 September 25, 2015 40.0 13.5 9.0 w. 3.0 14.5 8.0 w. 9.5 ±1.8 pp 3,000 25.5
Técnicas Demoscópicas September 21, 2015 41.0 12.0 11.0 w. 2.5 13.0 7.0 w. 12.0 ±2.8 pp 1,200 28.0
Celeste-Tel September 21, 2015 38.9 12.2 9.1 w. 2.6 17.0 7.8 w. 11.9 ±3.1 pp 1,100 21.9
Celeste-Tel September 20, 2015 38.7 12.0 9.3 w. 2.9 16.7 7.7 w. 12.1 ±3.1 pp 1,100 22.0
Celeste-Tel September 19, 2015 38.5 12.1 9.7 w. 3.0 16.5 7.4 w. 12.0 ±3.1 pp 1,100 22.0
Encuestamos September 19, 2015 35.7 13.4 10.5 w. 2.3 13.3 8.3 w. 14.6 ±3.3 pp 844 21.1
NC Report September 19, 2015 38.0 12.1 9.9 w. 3.7 15.3 6.2 w. 12.4 ±2.8 pp 1,255 22.7
Celeste-Tel September 18, 2015 38.8 12.1 9.9 w. 3.1 14.6 6.2 w. 12.6 ±3.1 pp 1,100 24.2
GAD3 September 18, 2015 40.7 11.9 10.2 w. 1.9 14.1 6.4 w. 10.3 ±3.5 pp 800 26.6
NC Report September 18, 2015 38.0 12.2 10.0 w. 3.5 15.4 5.9 w. 12.5 22.6
Sigma Dos September 17, 2015 40.5 10.8 9.6 w. 2.8 14.8 7.3 w. 11.2 ±2.7 pp 1,400 25.7
Feedback September 17, 2015 40.7 10.1 10.6 w. 4.2 14.4 6.4 w. 11.1 ±3.2 pp 1,000 26.3
My Word September 17, 2015 40.1 11.7 8.8 w. 1.5 15.4 8.1 w. 12.6 ±3.2 pp 1,000 24.7
NC Report September 17, 2015 38.1 11.9 9.7 w. 3.7 15.8 5.6 w. 12.3 22.3
Metroscopia September 16, 2015 41.2 11.7 7.3 w. 2.7 14.9 8.4 w. 11.4 ±2.4 pp 2,000 26.3
DYM September 16, 2015 42.4 8.4 11.9 w. 1.1 18.3 7.5 w. 10.4 ±2.9 pp 1,157 24.1
Opinòmetre September 16, 2015 39.2 13.2 8.9 w. 5.2 15.9 6.4 w. 11.1 ±3 pp 1,000 23.3
NC Report September 16, 2015 37.9 11.6 9.5 w. 3.8 16.2 5.6 w. 12.5 21.7
Sigma Dos September 15, 2015 40.3 9.1 9.3 w. 2.2 15.4 8.2 w. 12.3 ±2.3 pp 1,800 24.9
NC Report September 15, 2015 37.6 11.4 9.4 w. 3.9 16.5 5.2 w. 12.7 ±2.8 pp 1,255 21.1
Invymark September 14, 2015 43.4 10.6 8.9 w. 1.8 14.3 6.3 w. 12.6 29.1
JxSí September 12, 2015 41.0 9.7 10.4 w. 2.0 14.1 6.7 w. 13.5 ±3 pp 1,200 26.9
Sondaxe September 8, 2015 42.1 12.6 11.5 w. 11.6 7.4 w. 10.2 ±3.7 pp 750 29.5
IBES September 8, 2015 38.3 11.1 10.2 w. 2.8 13.4 7.2 w. 11.4 ±5 pp 1,200 24.9
Invymark September 7, 2015 41.3 11.1 9.6 w. 1.8 13.9 5.9 w. 13.2 27.4
Encuestamos September 7, 2015 33.2 12.9 9.1 w. 4.0 12.5 8.4 w. 19.2 23.3
CIS September 4, 2015 38.1 12.2 9.4 w. 1.5 14.8 5.9 w. 13.9 ±1.8 pp 2,999 23.3
GAPS September 3, 2015 43.5 9.5 12.3 w. 12.6 7.5 w. 11.5 ±3.2 pp 1,221 30.9
Sigma Dos September 3, 2015 39.4 11.1 9.8 w. 3.8 12.7 6.7 w. 12.4 ±2.7 pp 1,400 26.7
GESOP September 2, 2015 38.8 10.3 7.9 w. 2.4 19.9 6.0 w. 12.4 ±3.5 pp 800 18.9
NC Report August 22, 2015 36.3 11.7 9.3 w. 4.4 17.9 4.7 w. 12.3 ±3.2 pp 955 18.4
NC Report July 23, 2015 35.8 12.0 8.2 w. 4.6 19.1 4.2 w. 12.8 ±2.8 pp 1,255 16.7
Feedback July 9, 2015 46.7 7.5 6.6 w. 3.3 17.0 w. w. 17.5 ±3.2 pp 1,000 29.2
GAPS July 3, 2015 32 9 9 w. 4 16 8 w. 20 ±3.4 pp 820 12
GAPS July 3, 2015 49 11 7 w. 3 12 w. w. 18 ±3.4 pp 820 31
Feedback December 4, 2014 41.7 11.1 8.8 6.2 w. 14.3 5.9 11.2 ±3.2 pp 1,000 27.4
GESOP November 17, 2014 35.2 10.2 7.2 8.0 2.4 11.8 6.1 15.5 ±3.5 pp 800 19.7

Parliamentary seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Color key:

      Multi-scenario poll       Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls       Exit poll

68 seats needed for a majority
Polling Firm/Link Last Date
of Polling
Regional Election September 27, 2015 62 16 11 w. 0 25 10 w. 11
TNS Demoscopia September 27, 2015 63/66 14/16 9/11 w. 0/3 19/21 11/13 w. 12/14
Directe.cat September 26, 2015 67/71 14/16 10/11 w. 0 17/19 10/12 w. 13/15
Metroscopia September 25, 2015 64/65 15/17 8/9 w. 0 23/25 10/11 w. 11/12
Opinòmetre September 25, 2015 62/64 16/18 8/10 w. 5/6 20/21 6/8 w. 12/14
GAD3 September 25, 2015 62/65 16/18 10/12 w. 2/3 18/20 9/11 w. 11/13
Técnicas Demoscópicas September 21, 2015 62/64 14/15 13 w. 0/3 18/20 9 w. 15
Celeste-Tel September 21, 2015 59/62 16/17 10/12 w. 0/1 22/23 9/10 w. 12/13
Celeste-Tel September 20, 2015 59/62 15/17 11/12 w. 0/1 22/23 8/10 w. 13/14
Celeste-Tel September 19, 2015 58/61 15/16 11/12 w. 1/2 22/23 7/9 w. 13/14
Encuestamos September 19, 2015 54/57 17/19 12/14 w. 0/2 17/19 10/12 w. 18/21
NC Report September 19, 2015 59 16 13 w. 3 20 8 w. 16
Celeste-Tel September 18, 2015 59/62 15/18 11/13 w. 2/3 20/21 7/9 w. 16/17
GAD3 September 18, 2015 65/67 14/16 12/13 w. 0/2 18/20 7/9 w. 12/13
NC Report September 18, 2015 59/60 15/16 13/14 w. 3/5 20/22 7/8 w. 15/16
Sigma Dos September 17, 2015 65/66 13/14 12/13 w. 0/2 19/20 9 w. 14
Feedback September 17, 2015 63/65 12/14 12/13 w. 3 20/21 8 w. 13/15
My Word September 17, 2015 61/65 14/16 10 w. 0 21/22 9/12 w. 15/17
NC Report September 17, 2015 59/60 15/16 12/13 w. 4/5 21/22 6/7 w. 15/16
Metroscopia September 16, 2015 66/67 14 10 w. 0/2 19 10/11 w. 14
DYM September 16, 2015 63/65 10/11 16 w. 0 21/23 10/11 w. 12
Opinòmetre September 16, 2015 60/62 15/17 14/16 w. 5/6 18/20 6/8 w. 17/19
NC Report September 16, 2015 59/60 15/16 12/13 w. 4/5 22/23 5/6 w. 16
Sigma Dos September 15, 2015 65/66 12 11/13 w. 0 20 10 w. 15/17
NC Report September 15, 2015 59 15 12 w. 5 23 5 w. 16
Invymark September 14, 2015 64 14 12 w. 0 20 8 w. 17
JxSí September 12, 2015 64/66 13/15 13/15 w. 0 17/18 8 w. 17/19
Sondaxe September 8, 2015 65 16 16 w. 0 16 8 w. 14
IBES September 8, 2015 64/65 15/16 12/13 w. 0/2 18/19 9/10 w. 13/14
Invymark September 7, 2015 63 15 13 w. 0 19 8 w. 17
CIS September 4, 2015 60/61 16/17 12/13 w. 0 19/20 8 w. 18/19
GAPS September 3, 2015 65/70 12/13 14/17 w. 0 15/18 8/10 w. 12/16
Sigma Dos September 3, 2015 62/65 14/15 13 w. 3 16/17 8/9 w. 15/17
GESOP September 2, 2015 60/62 13/14 10/11 w. 0/2 25/27 7/8 w. 15/17
NC Report August 22, 2015 57 16 12 w. 5 25 4 w. 16
NC Report July 23, 2015 56 18 10 w. 5 27 3 w. 16
Feedback July 9, 2015 68/72 9/10 7/9 w. 2/3 21/23 w. w. 22/23
GAPS July 3, 2015 52 12 12 w. 3 20 10 w. 26
GAPS July 3, 2015 75 13 8 w. 2 14 w. w. 23
Feedback December 4, 2014 64 13 11 7 w. 19 6 15
GESOP November 17, 2014 58/60 13/14 9/10 9/11 0 15/16 8 20/21

References

  1. "Mas announces an agreement with ERC and will call a snap election for 27 September 2015" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-01-14.
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