Opinion polling in the Scottish Parliament election, 2016


The 2016 Scottish Parliament election is to be held on Thursday 5 May 2016[1] to elect 129 members to the Scottish Parliament. It will be the fifth general election since the parliament was established in 1999.

Polling data

Constituency Vote (FPTP)

2016

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size SNPLab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
5 May General Election Result 2,279,153 46.5% 22.6% 22.0% 7.8% 1.1% 23.9%
2–4 May YouGov/The Times 1,445 48% 22% 19% 7% 4% 26%
1–2 May Survation/Daily Record 1,024 49% 21% 19% 7% 5% 28%
1 May BBC Scotland debate between Davidson, Dugdale, Harvie, Rennie and Sturgeon.
23–28 Apr Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,074 49% 23% 17% 6% 4% 26%
18–25 Apr Ipsos MORI/STV 1,015 51% 19% 18% 6% 6% 32%
1–24 Apr TNS 1,035 52% 22% 17% 7% 3% 30%
15–20 Apr Survation/Daily Record 1,005 53% 18% 17% 7% 5% 35%
11–15 Apr BMG Research/Herald 1,012 53% 21% 16% 6% 3% 32%
6–15 Apr Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,021 51% 19% 18% 5% 7% 32%
7–11 Apr YouGov/The Times 1,012 50% 21% 18% 5% 6% 29%
23 Mar–3 Apr Survation/Unison Scotland 1,003 52% 21% 16% 6% 4% 31%
29 Mar STV debate between Davidson, Dugdale, Harvie, Rennie and Sturgeon.
24 Mar BBC Scotland debate between Coburn, Davidson, Dugdale, Harvie, Rennie and Sturgeon.
2–22 Mar TNS 1,013 56% 19% 15% 6% 3% 37%
10–17 Mar Survation/Daily Record 1,051 54% 20% 16% 7% 4% 34%
7–9 Mar YouGov/The Times 1,070 49% 19% 19% 6% 7% 30%
25–29 Feb Survation/Daily Mail 1,022 54% 21% 16% 5% 4% 33%
3–24 Feb TNS 1,036 60% 21% 13% 4% 2% 39%
11–16 Feb Survation/Daily Record 1,006 53% 22% 16% 6% 3% 31%
1–7 Feb Ipsos MORI/STV 1,000 53% 20% 16% 6% 5% 33%
1–4 Feb YouGov/The Times 1,022 50% 19% 20% 6% 5% 30%
6–25 Jan TNS 1,016 57% 21% 17% 3% 2% 36%
8–14 Jan Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,053 50% 21% 17% 6% 5% 29%
8–12 Jan Survation/Daily Record 1,029 52% 21% 16% 7% 4% 31%

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size SNPLab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
5 May General Election Result 1,989,222 45.4% 31.7% 13.9% 7.9% 1.1% 13.7%

Regional Vote (AMS)

Graphical summary


4-point average trend line of poll results from 1 January 2014 to 28 April 2016, with each line corresponding to a political party.
  SNP
  Labour
  Greens
  UKIP
  SSP / RISE

The chart shows the relative state of the parties from the start of 2014, when regular polling began, to the date the next election is held.

2016

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size SNPLab Con Green Lib Dem UKIP RISE[2] Others Lead
5 May General Election Result 2,285,752 41.7% 19.1% 22.9% 6.6% 5.2% 2.0% 0.5% 2.0% 18.8%
2–4 May YouGov/The Times 1,445 41% 19% 20% 9% 6% 4% 1% 1% 21%
1–2 May Survation/Daily Record 1,024 44% 19% 20% 7% 6% 2% N/A 2% 24%
1 May BBC Scotland debate between Davidson, Dugdale, Harvie, Rennie and Sturgeon.
23–28 Apr Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,074 44% 22% 19% 6% 4% 3% 2% <1% 22%
18–25 Apr Ipsos MORI/STV 1,015 45% 17% 19% 10% 7% 1% <1% <1% 26%
1–24 Apr TNS 1,035 45% 22% 18% 8% 5% <1% 1% <1% 23%
15–20 Apr Survation/Daily Record 1,005 43% 17% 18% 11% 7% 4% N/A 2% 25%
11–15 Apr BMG Research/Herald 1,012 46% 20% 16% 7% 6% 4% N/A 0% 26%
6–15 Apr Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,021 47% 18% 19% 8% 4% 3% 1% <1% 28%
7–11 Apr YouGov/The Times 1,012 45% 19% 18% 8% 5% 3% 1% 1% 26%
23 Mar–3 Apr Survation/Unison Scotland 1,003 44% 19% 16% 10% 7% 4% N/A 1% 25%
29 Mar STV debate between Davidson, Dugdale, Harvie, Rennie and Sturgeon.
24 Mar BBC Scotland debate between Coburn, Davidson, Dugdale, Harvie, Rennie and Sturgeon.
2–22 Mar TNS 1,013 47% 21% 15% 8% 6% 1% 2% 26%
10–17 Mar Survation/Daily Record 1,051 42% 18% 18% 10% 6% 5% N/A 1% 24%
7–9 Mar YouGov/The Times 1,070 43% 17% 19% 8% 5% 4% 1% 1% 24%
25–29 Feb Survation/Daily Mail 1,022 43% 19% 14% 9% 7% 6% 1% 24%
3–24 Feb TNS 1,036 55% 21% 13% 6% 4% 34%
11–16 Feb Survation/Daily Record 1,006 45% 18% 15% 9% 6% 6% 1% 27%
1–7 Feb Ipsos MORI/STV 1,000 49% 19% 15% 6% 8% 1% <1% 2% 30%
1–4 Feb YouGov/The Times 1,022 42% 20% 20% 6% 5% 3% 2% 1% 22%
6–25 Jan TNS 1,016 52% 19% 17% 6% 6% <1% <1% 1% 33%
8–14 Jan Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,053 48% 19% 17% 5% 7% 2% 1% 1% 29%
8–12 Jan Survation/Daily Record 1,029 42% 20% 16% 9% 8% 5% <1% 22%

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size SNPLab Con Lib Dem Green Others Lead
5 May General Election Result 1,991,051 44.0% 26.3% 12.4% 5.2% 4.4% 7.7% 17.7%

Footnotes

    References

    1. Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 section 4
    2. 1 2 In August 2015, the Scottish Socialist Party announced it would stand as part of an electoral alliance called RISE - Scotland's Left Alliance
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