Opinion polling in United Kingdom constituencies, 2010–15

Prior to the 2015 United Kingdom general election, various polling organisations conducted opinion polling in specific constituencies. The results of publicised opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article. However, most opinion polling covers Great Britain, where the results are published in this article here.

Opinion polls were conducted gradually from the months after the previous general election held on 6 May 2010, and increased in frequency before the general election which took place on 7 May 2015. Though most opinion polls published are for general election voting intention, some polls shown are for voting intention in separate by-elections.

Polls of individual constituencies are expensive compared to national polling and were previously an infrequent practice in the UK. However, a large number of individual constituency polls have been carried out in this period, most commissioned from independent polling providers by Lord Ashcroft, a Conservative peer and sponsor. In addition to polls listed in this article, other polling of constituencies has been carried out in private, often by political parties.^[1]

Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.^[2]

Constituency polls

England

Amber Valley

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
3–12 Jul 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	34%	35%	4%	23%	3%	2%	1% over Con
14–20 Apr 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	29%	41%	6%	20%	2%	2%	12% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	45,958	38.6%	37.4%	14.4%	2.0%	–	7.6%	1.2% over Lab

Bedford

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
23–30 Jul 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	28%	38%	14%	15%	3%	2%	10% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	45,102	38.9%	35.9%	19.9%	2.5%	0.9%	2.0%	3.0% over Lab

Bermondsey and Old Southwark

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
3–13 Sep 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	35%	14%	36%	9%	5%	2%	1% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	44,651	29.2%	17.1%	48.4%	–	1.6%	3.7%	19.1% over Lab

Berwick-upon-Tweed

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
21–28 Aug 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	16%	33%	30%	17%	3%	1%	3% over LD
6 May 2010	General Election Results	38,439	13.2%	36.7%	43.7%	3.2%	–	3.2%	7% over Con

Birmingham Edgbaston

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
31 Jul–11 Aug 2014	Ashcroft	1001	48%	29%	3%	12%	5%	1%	19% over Con
12–18 May 2014	Ashcroft	1000	44%	33%	5%	13%	4%	1%	11% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	41,571	40.6%	37.6%	15.4%	1.8%	1.1%	3.6%	3.1% over Con

Birmingham Yardley

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
27–31 Oct 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	31%	12%	34%	19%	2%	1%	3% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	40,850	32.2%	19.2%	39.6%	2.9%	–	–	7.3% over Lab

Blackpool North and Cleveleys

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
30 Mar–4 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	37%	42%	3%	15%	2%	1%	5% over Lab
13–18 Oct 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	32%	35%	5%	24%	3%	1%	3% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	40,591	36.5%	41.8%	13.3%	4.1%	-	4.3%	5.3% over Lab

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	LD	UKIP	Lab	Others	Lead
22–24 Nov 2013	Survation/Alan Bown	508	37%	11%	27%	20%	5%	10% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	46,852	51.4%	23.5%	6.5%	14.0%	4.5%	27.9% over LD

Bolton West

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
23–31 Jul 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	40%	27%	8%	21%	2%	2%	13% over Con
21–27 Apr 2014	Ashcroft	1,001	41%	28%	10%	17%	2%	1%	13% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	47,576	38.5%	38.3%	17.2%	4.0%	1.1%	0.8%	0.2% over Con

Boston and Skegness

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	LD	UKIP	Lab	Green	IFE	BNP	Others	Lead
26 Jan–5 Feb 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	38%	5%	35%	17%	3%	–	–	2%	3% over UKIP
5–9 Sep 2014	Survation/Alan Bown	342	26.2%	2.0%	45.5%	20.8%	3.2%	1.0%	1.0%	0.4%	19.3% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	43,125	49.4%	14.8%	9.5%	20.6%	–	–	5.3%	0.4%	28.8% over Lab

Bradford East

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	BNP	Others	Lead
1–21 Jun 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	45%	12%	23%	15%	2%	–	3%	22% over LD
6 May 2010	General Election Results	40,457	32.8%	26.8%	33.7%	–	–	4.6%	2.0%	0.9% over Lab

Brent Central

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
11–22 Jun 2014	Ashcroft	1,001	54%	13%	19%	7%	5%	1%	35% over LD
6 May 2010	General Election Results	45,324	41.2%	11.2%	44.2%	–	1.5%	2%	3.0% over Lab

Brentford and Isleworth

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
17–26 Sep 2014	Ashcroft	1,001	32%	45%	10%	7%	4%	1%	13% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	53,765	37.2%	33.6%	23.7%	1.6%	1.5%	2.4%	3.6% over Lab

Brighton Kemptown

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
11–21 Sep 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	37%	33%	6%	13%	10%	1%	4% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	42,705	34.9%	38.0%	18.0%	3.2%	5.5%	0.5%	3.1% over Lab

Brighton Pavilion

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Green	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Others	Lead
11–20 Nov 2014	Ashcroft	1,001	38%	28%	21%	5%	8%	1%	10% over Lab
5–12 Jun 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	32%	33%	18%	5%	9%	2%	1% over Green
6 May 2010	General Election Results	51,834	31.3%	28.9%	23.7%	13.8%	1.8%	0.4%	2.4% over Lab

Bristol North West

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
17-23 April 2015	Ashcroft	1,005	34%	43%	8%	8%	6%	0%	9% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	50,336	25.9%	38.0%	32.5%	2.3%	1.0%	1.3%	5.5% over LD

Bristol West

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
17-23 April 2015	Ashcroft	1,001	38%	14%	20%	2%	25%	1%	13% over Green
6 May 2010	General Election Results	55,347	27.5%	18.4%	48.0%	1.2%	3.8%	1.1%	20.5% over Lab

Broxtowe

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	BNP	Others	Lead
26 Jun–4 Jul 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	30%	39%	7%	18%	4%	1%	1%	9% over Con
8–13 Apr 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	30%	44%	10%	13%	1%	1%	1%	14% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	52,727	39.0%	38.3%	16.9%	2.3%	0.8%	2.7%	–	0.7% over Lab

Burnley

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	BNP	Others	Lead
27–30 Oct 2014	Ashcroft	1,001	11%	38%	23%	25%	2%	1%	1%	13% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	41,845	16.6%	31.3%	35.7%	2.2%	–	9.0%	5.2%	4.3% over Lab

Bury North

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
2-14 October 2014	Ashcroft	1,004	32%	41%	5%	20%	2%	1%	9% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	44,961	40.2%	35.2%	17%	2.9%	-	4.8%	5% over Lab

Camborne and Redruth

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	MK	OMRLP	Others	Lead
24–26 Mar 2015	Ashcroft	1,001	37%	24%	13%	14%	8%	–	–	3%	13% over Lab
25 Nov 2014	Survation/University of Exeter	500	30.0%	22.4%	6.3%	33.0%	6.9%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%	3% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	42,493	37.6%	16.3%	37.4%	5.1%	1.4%	1.8%	–	0.4%	0.2% over LD

Cambridge

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
24–28 Mar 2015	Ashcroft	1000	17%	31%	40%	3%	9%	–	9% over Lab
3–12 Sep 2014	Ashcroft	1000	19%	33%	32%	7%	8%	1%	1% over LD
4–8 Apr 2014	ICM/Lord Oakeshott	500	18%	41%	28%	5%	5%	2%	13% over LD
6 May 2010	General Election Results	50,130	25.6%	24.3%	39.1%	2.4%	7.6%	1.0%	13.5% over Con

Cannock Chase

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	BNP	Others	Lead
16–24 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,002	38%	32%	5%	21%	3%	–	1%	6% over Con
22–27 Oct 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	32%	27%	8%	30%	2%	–	1%	2% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	45,559	33.1%	40.1%	17.0%	3.5%	–	4.8%	1.6%	7% over Lab

Carlisle

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
11-16 Jul 2014	Ashcroft	1,001	30%	41%	5%	18%	3%	3%	11% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	42,200	39.3%	37.3%	15.6%	2.3%	1.5%	4.1%	2.0% over Lab

Carshalton and Wallington

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
29 Oct–6 Nov 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	12%	23%	43%	17%	3%	1%	20% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	45,918	8.7%	36.8%	48.3%	2.9%	0.8%	2.4%	11.5% over Con

Castle Point

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
15–24 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	12%	41%	2%	36%	3%	5%	5% over UKIP
26 Jan–5 Feb 2015	Ashcroft	1,002	16%	37%	3%	36%	2%	6%	1% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	45,026	14.7%	44.0%	9.4%	–	-	31.9%	17.0% over Ind

Cheadle

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
15–22 Aug 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	19%	30%	34%	13%	2%	3%	4% over CON
26 May-1 Jun 2014	Ashcroft	1,003	21%	29%	32%	15%	2%	1%	3% over CON
6 May 2010	General Election Results	52,512	9.4%	40.8%	47.1%	2.7%	–	–	6.3% over CON

Cheltenham

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
27 Oct-1 Nov 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	7%	34%	42%	11%	5%	1%	8% over CON
6 May 2010	General Election Results	52,768	5.1%	41.2%	50.5%	2.3%	–	0.9	9.3% over CON

Chippenham

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
14-20 Aug 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	39%	14%	24%	16%	6%	1%	15% over LD
26 May-1 Jun 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	35%	12%	26%	19%	7%	1%	9% over LD
6 May 2010	General Election Results	52,385	41.0%	6.9%	45.8%	3.4%	0.9%	2%	4.8% over Con

City of Chester

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
26 Feb-5 Mar 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	45%	34%	7%	10%	3%	1%	11% over Con
13–18 Oct 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	37%	36%	7%	15%	5%	1%	1% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	46,853	35.1%	40.6%	19.1%	2.6%	1.1%	1.5%	5.5% over Lab

Clacton

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	UKIP	LD	Green	Others	Lead
9 Oct 2014	Clacton by-election Result	35,365	24.6%	11.2%	59.7%	1.4%	1.9%	1.2%	35.1% over Con
29 Aug–1 Sep 2014	Ashcroft	1,001	27%	19%	48%	3%	3%	<0.5%	21% over Con
29 Aug–1 Sep 2014	Ashcroft (By-election polling)	1,001	24%	16%	56%	2%	1%	1%	32% over Con
28–29 Aug 2014	Survation (By-election polling)	700	20%	13%	64%	2%	1%	<0.5%	44% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	43,123	53.0%	25.0%	–	12.9%	1.2%	7.8%	28.0% over Lab

Cleethorpes

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
2-11 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,001	38%	36%	6%	15%	3%	1%	2% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	44,966	42.1%	32.6%	18.2%	7.1%	-	3.9%	9.5% over Lab

Colchester

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
4–14 Nov 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	17%	22%	36%	18%	6%	1%	14% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	46,139	12.3%	32.9%	48.0%	2.9%	1.5%	2.4%	15.1% over Con

Colne Valley

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
16–22 April 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	35%	37%	8%	11%	6%	2%	2% over Lab
2–12 Feb 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	34%	33%	9%	13%	9%	1%	1% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	55,296	26.4%	37.0%	28.2%	2.1%	1.6%	4.7%	8.7% over LD

Corby

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
10–17 Sep 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	40%	30%	5%	21%	2%	2%	10% over Con
15 Nov 2012	Corby by-election Result	35,665	48.4%	26.6%	5.0%	14.3%	1.1%	4.6%	21.8% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	54,180	38.6%	42.2%	14.5%	–	–	4.7%	3.6% over Lab

Crewe and Nantwich

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	UKIP	LD	Others	Lead
2–9 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	38%	41%	13%	4%	1%	3% over Con
22–24 Nov 2013	Survation/Alan Bown	500	33%	46%	11%	6%	5%	13% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	51,084	45.8%	34.0%	2.8%	15.0%	2.3%	11.8% over Lab

Croydon Central

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	UKIP	LD	Green	Others	Lead
26-30 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,003	44%	40%	10%	2%	3%	0%	4% over Lab
3–12 Mar 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	37%	41%	13%	3%	5%	1%	4% over Con
14–18 Oct 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	33%	39%	19%	4%	4%	1%	6% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	49,757	39.5%	33.5%	2.0%	13.2%	1.2%	10.6%	6.0% over Lab

Derby North

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
28 May-4 Jun 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	23%	44%	17%	12%	2%	2%	21% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	45,080	31.7%	33%	28%	1.8%	–	5.4%	1.3% over Con

Dewsbury

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
15-23 Jul 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	30%	40%	4%	18%	6%	3%	10% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	54,008	35%	32.2%	16.9%	-	1.6%	14.3%	2.8% over Lab

Doncaster North

Note: Michael Ashcroft initially published incorrect results for his 18–23 Nov 2014 poll,^[3] erroneously showing only a small Labour lead. The corrected poll results are below.

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	BNP	Others	Lead
18–23 Nov 2014	Ashcroft, Corrected	1,000	13%	54%	4%	25%	2%	1%	2%	29% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	41,483	21.0%	47.3%	14.9%	4.3%	–	6.8%	5.6%	26.3% over Con

Dover

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
2-9 April 2015	Ashcroft	1,002	32%	40%	3%	20%	4%	-	8% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	50,385	33.5%	44%	15.8%	3.5%	-	3.2%	10.5% over Lab

Dudley North

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	UKIP	LD	Others	Lead
20–27 Nov 2014	Ashcroft	1,001	37%	24%	34%	3%	3%	3% over UKIP
28 Apr–4 May 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	40%	24%	27%	4%	5%	13% over UKIP
22–24 Nov 2013	Survation	526	45%	25%	23%	2%	5%	20% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	38,602	38.7%	37.0%	8.5%	10.5%	5.3%	1.7% over Con

Dudley South

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Lead
7-10 April 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	35%	39%	3%	18%	4%	4% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	38,165	33%	43.1%	15.7%	8.2%	-	10.1% over Lab

Ealing Central and Acton

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
1–6 Dec 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	34%	40%	11%	6%	7%	2%	6% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	47,200	38.0%	30.1%	27.6%	1.6%	1.6%	1.0%	7.9% over Lab

Eastbourne

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
27 Aug-5 Sep 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	7%	25%	46%	18%	2%	2%	21% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	52,142	4.8%	40.7%	47.3%	2.5%	-	4.6%	6.6% over Con

Eastleigh

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	LD	Con	UKIP	Lab	Green	Others	Lead
20–28 Aug 2014	Ashcroft	538	40%	25%	21%	12%	2%	1%	15% over Con
29 May–6 Jun 2014	Ashcroft	523	39%	27%	22%	10%	2%	0%	12% over Con
14–17 Apr 2014	Survation/Alan Bown	369	27.1%	28.2%	31.6%	11.5%	1.0%	0.6%	3.4% over Con
28 Feb 2013	Eastleigh by-election Result	42,649	32.1%	25.4%	27.8%	9.8%	–	4.9%	4.3% over UKIP
22–24 Feb 2013	Ashcroft (By-election polling)^[4]	416	33%	28%	23%	12%	–	4%	5% over Con
19–22 Feb 2013	Populus/Times (By-election polling)^[5]	408	33%	28%	25%	11%	–	4%	5% over Con
18–22 Feb 2013	Survation/Mail on Sunday (By-election polling)	402	29%	33%	21%	13%	–	4%	4% over LD
6–8 Feb 2013	Survation/Mail on Sunday^[6]	321	36%	33%	16%	13%	0.3%	0.1%	3% over Con
4–5 Feb 2013	Ashcroft (By-election polling)^[7]	314	31%	34%	15%	19%	1%	1%	3% over LD
2–5 Aug 2010	Ashcroft	513	31%	43%	–	20%	–	6%	12% over LD
6 May 2010	General Election Results	53,650	46.5%	39.3%	3.6%	9.6%	–	1.0%	7.2% over Con

Elmet and Rothwell

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
8–13 Dec 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	39%	35%	6%	16%	3%	1%	4% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	55,789	42.6%	34.5%	16.3%	2.9%	–	3.6%	8.1% over Lab

Enfield North

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
17–25 Sep 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	34%	44%	3%	12%	3%	3%	10% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	44,453	42.3%	38.5%	12.2%	2.1%	1.1%	3.9%	3.8% over Lab

Erewash

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
3-14 Oct 2014	Ashcroft	1,003	30%	38%	5%	22%	3%	2%	8% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	47,642	39.5%	34.2%	17.5%	1.8%	1.1%	2.9%	5.3% over Lab

Finchley and Golders Green

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Lead
7-11 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,001	43%	41%	6%	6%	4%	2% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	47,157	33.7%	46%	17%	1.7%	1.6%	12.3% over Lab

Folkestone and Hythe

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	LD	UKIP	Lab	Green	Others	Lead
3–4 Apr 2014	Survation/Mail on Sunday	529	36.4%	9.6%	32.9%	17.8%	1.9%	1.5%	3.5% over UKIP
22–24 Nov 2013	Survation/Alan Bown	548	35%	10%	28%	21%	4%	2%	7% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	52,800	49.4%	30.3%	4.6%	10.8%	1.2%	3.6%	19.1% over LD

Gloucester

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
24 Mar–4 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,001	40%	36%	9%	12%	3%	1%	4% over Lab
24 Sep–2 Oct 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	34%	33%	12%	18%	3%	0%	1% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	50,764	39.9%	35.2%	19.2%	3.6%	1%	1.1%	4.8% over Lab

Great Grimsby

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	UKIP	LD	Others	Lead
15–24 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1000	42%	24%	25%	5%	4%	17% over UKIP
20–27 Nov 2014	Ashcroft	1,001	35%	20%	34%	8%	4%	1% over UKIP
5–11 May 2014	Ashcroft	1,001	38%	21%	26%	10%	5%	12% over UKIP
18–22 Oct 2013	Survation	506	40%	21%	23%	11%	5%	17% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	32,954	32.7%	30.5%	6.2%	22.4%	8.1%	2.2% over Con

Great Yarmouth

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	UKIP	LD	Green	Others	Lead
15–24 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	36%	34%	24%	2%	4%	1%	2% over Lab
11–16 Jul 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	33%	28%	32%	3%	3%	1%	1% over UKIP
21–27 Apr 2014	Ashcroft	1,001	32%	31%	29%	5%	2%	1%	1% over Lab
22–24 Nov 2013	Survation/Alan Bown	507	27%	37%	30%	3%		2%	7% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	43,057	43.1%	33.2%	4.8%	14.4%	1.0%	3.5%	9.9% over Lab

Halesowen and Rowley Regis

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
24 Feb–5 Mar 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	37%	39%	4%	15%	3%	2%	2% over Con
24 Sep–3 Oct 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	34%	35%	2%	24%	4%	1%	1% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	43,979	41.2%	36.6%	14.8%	6.4%	–	1.0%	4.6% over Lab

Halifax

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
12-18 May 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	43%	26%	8%	18%	2%	3%	17% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	43,555	37.4%	34%	19.1%	1.5%	-	8%	3.4% over Con

Hampstead and Kilburn

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	UKIP	LD	Green	Others	Lead
23 Jul–3 Aug 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	30%	47%	2%	13%	6%	1%	17% over Con
21–27 Apr 2014	Ashcroft	1,003	30%	41%	3%	19%	6%	0%	11% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Result	52,822	32.7%	32.8%	0.8%	31.2%	1.4%	1%	0.1% over Con

Harlow

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
2-10 April 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	34%	44%	3%	16%	2%	1%	10% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	53,878	33.7%	44.9%	13.7%	3.6%	-	4.2%	11.2% over Lab

Harrogate and Knaresborough

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
5-12 Jun 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	11%	41%	24%	16%	8%	0%	17% over LD
6 May 2010	General Election Results	53,134	6.4%	45.7%	43.8%	2 %	-	2.1%	1.9% over LD

Harrow East

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
31 Mar–4 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,001	40%	44%	4%	8%	3%	1%	4% over Con
1–7 Dec 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	40%	37%	6%	13%	3%	0%	3% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	48,006	44.7%	37.6%	14.3%	1.9%	1.7%	–	7.1% over Lab

Hastings and Rye

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
17-25 Sep 2014	Ashcroft	1,001	40%	31%	5%	19%	3%	1%	9% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	49,814	37.1%	41.1%	15.7%	2.8%	-	3.3%	4% over Lab

Hazel Grove

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Lead
4–15 Nov 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	15%	29%	35%	17%	4%	6% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	41,981	12.5%	33.6%	48.8%	5.1%	–	15.2% over Con

Hendon

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
18–29 Jun 2014	Ashcroft	1,001	34%	49%	4%	9%	1%	1%	15% over Con
31 Mar–6 Apr 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	36%	44%	7%	11%	2%	1%	8% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	46,374	42.3%	42.1%	12.4%	2.1%	1.1%	–	0.2% over Lab

Heywood and Middleton

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
9 Oct 2014	Heywood and Middleton by-election Result	28,472	40.9%	12.3%	5.1%	38.7%	3.1%	–	2.2% over UKIP
30 Sep–4 Oct 2014	Ashcroft (By-election polling)	1,000	47%	16%	5%	28%	4%	–	19% over UKIP
30 Sep 2014	Survation/The Sun (By-election polling)	551	50%	13%	4%	31%	3%	–	19% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	46,125	40.1%	27.2%	22.7%	2.6%	-	7.4%	12.9% over Con

High Peak

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
17-23 April 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	38%	40%	7%	10%	5%	1%	2% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	50,337	31.6%	40.9%	21.8%	3.4%	1.8%	0.4%	9.3% over Lab

Hornsey and Wood Green

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
3 Mar 2015	Liberal Democrats (fieldwork by Survation)	325	15%	37%	36%	4%	7%	1%	1% over LD
3–13 Sep 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	14%	43%	30%	3%	8%	1%	13% over LD
6 May 2010	General Election Results	55,042	16.7%	34.0%	46.5%	–	2.3%	0.6%	12.5% over Lab

Hove

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
1–4 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,002	37%	43%	5%	5%	9%	1%	6% over Con
17–27 Sep 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	34%	37%	6%	11%	12%	-	3% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	49,819	36.7%	33.0%	22.6%	2.4%	5.2%	0.2%	3.7% over Lab

Ipswich

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
24 Sep-2 Oct 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	38%	31%	6%	19%	5%	1%	7% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	46,291	34.7%	39.1%	18.2%	2.9%	1.7%	3.3%	4.4% over Lab

Keighley

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
20-26 Oct 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	37%	31%	5%	23%	3%	1%	6% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	47,692	35.8%	41.9%	14.8%	3.1%	-	4.4%	6.1% over Lab

Kingston and Surbiton

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
29 Oct–8 Nov 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	30%	16%	38%	10%	6%	1%	8% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	57,111	36.5%	9.3%	49.8%	2.5%	1%	0.8%	13.3% over Con

Kingswood

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
28 Mar–3 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,001	42%	33%	5%	15%	4%	1%	9% over Lab
3-14 Oct 2014	Ashcroft	1,001	34%	32%	6%	23%	4%	1%	2% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	47,906	40.4%	35.3%	16.8%	3.2%	0.8%	3.4%	5.1% over Lab

Lancaster and Fleetwood

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
26 Jun-4 Jul 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	27%	41%	4%	18%	10%	1%	14% over Con
8-13 Apr 2014	Ashcroft	1,002	29%	43%	6%	12%	9%	1%	14% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	42,701	36.1%	35.2%	19.1%	4.4%	–	2.7%	0.8% over Lab

Lewes

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
11-20 Nov 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	29%	9%	37%	15%	7%	2%	8% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	50,088	36.7%	5%	52%	3.4%	1.5%	1.4%	15.3% over Con

Lincoln

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
14-21 Jul 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	39%	35%	6%	17%	3%	1%	4% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	45,721	35.2%	37.5%	20.2%	2.2%	-	4.8%	2.3% over Lab

Loughborough

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
31 Mar–3 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	45%	36%	3%	12%	3%	1%	9% over Lab
22-25 Oct 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	40%	37%	5%	12%	3%	3%	3% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	52,838	41.6%	34.5%	18.3%	1.8%	-	3.9%	7.1% over Lab

Manchester Withington

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
11–21 Jun 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	56%	7%	22%	4%	10%	1%	34% over LD
6 May 2010	General Election Results	45,075	40.5%	11.1%	44.6%	1.5%	1.8%	0.4%	4.1% over Lab

Mid Dorset and North Poole

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
31 Jul–9 Aug 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	38%	8%	32%	19%	3%	1%	6% over LD
12-18 May 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	39%	8%	32%	17%	3%	1%	7% over LD
6 May 2010	General Election Results	46,788	44.5%	5.9%	45.1%	4.5%	-	-	0.6% over Con

Milton Keynes South

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
7-10 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	37%	39%	8%	10%	4%	2%	2% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	55,333	41.6%	32.2%	17.7%	3.7%	1.4%	3.3%	9.4% over Lab

Morecambe and Lunesdale

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
1-4 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	36%	42%	5%	12%	5%	1%	6% over Con
7-11 Jul 2014	Ashcroft	1,001	34%	37%	6%	18%	4%	2%	3% over Con
14-20 Apr 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	37%	39%	5%	12%	3%	1%	2% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	43,436	41.5%	39.5%	13.3%	4.2%	1.4%	-	2% over Lab

Morley and Outwood

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
5-11 May 2014	Ashcroft	1,003	41%	24%	5%	20%	2%	8%	17% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	48,856	37.6%	35.3%	16.8%	3.1%	-	7.2%	2.3% over Con

Newark

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Others	Lead
5 Jun 2014	Newark by-election Result	38,707	45.0%	17.7%	3%	25.9%	8%	19% over UKIP
2–3 Jun 2014	Survation	678	42%	22%	4%	27%	5%	15% over UKIP
27 May–1 Jun 2014	Ashcroft (By-election polling)	1,000	42%	20%	6%	27%	5%	15% over UKIP
27–28 May 2014	Survation/The Sun	606	36%	27%	5%	28%	5%	8% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	51,228	53.9%	22.3%	20.0%	3.8%	–	31.5% over Lab

Newton Abbot

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
5-12 Jun 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	13%	39%	20%	20%	7%	1%	19% over LD/UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	48,283	7%	43%	41.9%	6.4%	1.5%	1.1%	31.5% over LD

North Cornwall

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
24-29 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,002	36%	5%	38%	14%	5%	3%	2% over Con
12-20 Mar 2015	Ashcroft	1,004	36%	6%	38%	13%	6%	1%	2% over Con
15-20 Aug 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	33%	10%	33%	20%	3%	1%	Tied
26 May-1 Jun 2014	Ashcroft	1,001	31%	8%	31%	24%	5%	2%	Tied
6 May 2010	General Election Results	46,844	41.7%	4.2%	48.1%	4.9%	-	1.1%	6.4% over Con

North Devon

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
24-26 Mar 2015	Ashcroft	1,001	38%	8%	31%	16%	6%	2%	7% over LD
29 Oct-6 Nov 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	30%	9%	29%	23%	7%	2%	1% over LD
6 May 2010	General Election Results	51,321	36%	7.2%	47.4%	7.2%	1.4%	2.8%	11.4% over Con

North East Cambridgeshire

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
26 Jan–5 Feb 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	17%	46%	7%	25%	4%	1%	21% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	52,064	17.8%	51.6%	20%	5.4%	-	5.2%	31.6% over LD

North East Somerset

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
7-11 April 2015	Ashcroft	1,001	28%	44%	9%	10%	8%	1%	16% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	51,203	31.7%	41.3%	22.3%	3.4%	1.3%	-	9.6% over Lab

North Warwickshire

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
18–28 Jun 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	41%	30%	2%	22%	2%	2%	11% over Con
31 Mar–6 Apr 2014	Ashcroft	1,001	43%	35%	3%	15%	3%	1%	8% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	47,265	40.1%	40.2%	11.6%	2.8%	–	0.9%	0.1% over Lab

Norwich North

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
24-30 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	38%	36%	6%	12%	8%	1%	2% over Con
4–12 Feb 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	35%	34%	5%	18%	10%	0%	1% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	42,573	31.4%	40.6%	18.3%	4.4%	2.9%	2.4%	9.2% over Lab

Norwich South

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
11–21 Jun 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	33%	18%	12%	15%	20%	1%	13% over Green
6 May 2010	General Election Results	47,551	28.7%	22.9%	29.4%	2.4%	14.9%	1.7%	0.7% over Lab

Nuneaton

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	BNP	Others	Lead
26 Feb-5 Mar 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	39%	34%	4%	14%	8%	–	1%	5% over Con
24 Sep–3 Oct 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	39%	36%	3%	19%	2%	–	1%	3% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	44,646	36.9%	41.5%	15.3%	–	–	6.3%	-	4.6% over Lab

Oxford West and Abingdon

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
21–28 Aug 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	18%	38%	30%	9%	4%	<0.5%	8% over LD
30 May–5 Jun 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	18%	36%	25%	11%	8%	1%	11% over LD
6 May 2010	General Election Results	56,480	10.6%	42.3%	42.0%	2.7%	2.1%	0.3%	0.3% over LD

Pendle

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
31 Mar–4 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	41%	37%	8%	10%	4%	1%	4% over Lab
8–14 Dec 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	36%	33%	11%	17%	2%	1%	3% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	45,045	38.9%	30.9%	20.2%	3.3%	–	6.7%	8.0% over Lab

Plymouth Moor View

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
15–23 Jul 2014	Ashcroft	506	35%	26%	5%	30%	2%	1%	5% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	41,526	37.2%	33.3%	16.9%	7.7%	1.0%	4.0%	3.8% over Con

Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
15–23 Jul 2014	Ashcroft	506	39%	26%	6%	21%	8%	1%	8% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	43,894	31.7%	34.3%	24.7%	6.5%	2.1%	0.7%	2.6% over Lab

Portsmouth South

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
29 Oct–6 Nov 2014	Ashcroft	1,001	20%	30%	25%	17%	6%	1%	5% over LD
6 May 2010	General Election Results	41,264	13.7%	33.3%	45.9%	2.1%	1.7%	3.4%	12.6% over Con

Redcar

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
27 Aug–6 Sep 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	44%	12%	18%	23%	2%	1%	21% over UKIP
17–19 Apr 2014	ICM/Lord Oakeshott	500	47%	15%	15%	19%	2%	2%	28% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	41,963	32.7%	13.8%	45.2%	4.5%	–	3.8%	12.5% over Lab

Rochester and Strood

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
15–22 April 2015	Ashcroft	1000	36%	24%	3%	33%	4%	1%	3% over UKIP
20 Nov 2014	Rochester and Strood by-election Result	40,065	34.8%	16.8%	0.9%	42.1%	4.2%	2.2%	7.3% over Con
7–10 Nov 2014	Ashcroft	543	36%	21%	2%	35%	5%	1%	1% over UKIP
7–10 Nov 2014	Ashcroft (By-election polling)	543	32%	17%	2%	44%	4%^[8]	1%	12% over Con
27–28 Oct 2014	Survation	1,012	33%	16%	1%	48%	1.7%	2%	15% over Con
17–21 Oct 2014	ComRes^[9]	949	30%	21%	3%	43%	2%	1%	13% over Con
4 Oct 2014	Survation/Mail on Sunday	677	31%	25%	2%	40%	1%	0.4%	9% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	47,971	49.2%	28.5%	16.3%	–	1.5%	4.5%	20.7% over Lab

Rother Valley

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	UKIP	LD	Green	BNP	Others	Lead
24–29 Nov 2014	Ashcroft	480	18%	40%	34%	4%	3%	<0.5%	2%	6% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	46,768	28.4%	40.9%	5.6%	17.3%	–	7.7%	–	12.5% over Con

Sheffield Hallam

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
4 May 2015	ICM/Guardian¹	501	35%	12%	42%	7%	3%	2%	7% over Lab
22–28 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	37%	15%	36%	7%	4%	1%	1% over LD
22–28 Mar 2015	Ashcroft	1,001	36%	16%	34%	7%	6%	1%	2% over LD
22–29 Jan 2015	Survation/Unite	1,011	33%	22%	23%	9%	12%	<0.5%	10% over LD
20–22 Nov 2014	Ashcroft	962	30%	19%	27%^[10]	13%	10%	1%	3% over LD
29 Apr–4 May 2014	ICM/Lord Oakeshott	500	33%	24%	23%	10%	8%	1%	9% over Con
1–4 Oct 2010	Populus/Ashcroft	1,000	31%	28%	33%	N/A	N/A	8%	2% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Result	51,135	16.1%	23.5%	53.4%	2.3%	1.8%	2.7%	29.9% over Con

¹: These figures represent the results when respondents were presented with named candidates. When asked to think only about the political parties [the methodology used by the Ashcroft polls] the figures showed a small Labour lead.^[11]

Solihull

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
31 Jul–10 Aug 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	12%	37%	28%	16%	6%	1%	9% over LD
12–18 May 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	12%	37%	28%	16%	6%	1%	9% over LD
6 May 2010	General Election Results	55,129	8.9%	42.6%	42.9%	2.2%	–	3.5%	0.3% over Con

Southampton Itchen

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
24 Feb-7 Mar 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	35%	30%	7%	20%	8%	–	5% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	44,412	36.8%	36.3%	20.8%	4.3%	1.4%	0.4%	0.4% over Con

South Basildon and East Thurrock

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
26 Jan–5 Feb 2015	Ashcroft	1,001	28%	35%	3%	29%	3%	1%	6% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	44,735	31.0%	43.9%	13.4%	5.9%	-	5.9%	12.9% over Lab

South Swindon

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
22–28 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	37%	36%	6%	16%	4%	-	1% over Lab
3–12 Mar 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	36%	35%	5%	19%	4%	2%	1% over Lab
1–6 Dec 2014	Ashcroft	508	34%	34%	7%	20%	4%	1%	Tied
6 May 2010	General Election Results	47,119	41.8%	34.3%	17.6%	4.3%	1.3%	0.7%	7.5% over Lab

South Thanet

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	UKIP	LD	Others	Lead
22-28 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	34%	26%	32%	3%	5%	2% over UKIP
22 April 2015	Survation/Alan Bown ^[12]	1,057	30%	26%	39%	2%	3%	9% over Con
13-18 March 2015	ComRes/Chartwell Political	1,003	31%	29%	30%	5%	5%	1% over UKIP
18–20 Feb 2015	Survation/Alan Bown ^[13]	1,011	27%	28%	38%	2%	5%	10% over Lab
23–24 Nov 2014	Ashcroft	1,003	33%	27%	32%	4%	4%	1% over UKIP
11–16 July 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	29%	29%	33%	4%	5%	4% over Con & Lab
21–27 April 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	32%	31%	27%	7%	3%	1% over Lab
22–24 Nov 2013	Survation	515	28%	35%	30%	5%	2%	5% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	45,933	48.0%	31.4%	5.5%	15.1%	–	16.6% over Lab

South West Surrey

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	LD	UKIP	Lab	Green	Others	Lead
4–5 Dec 2014	Survation/Unite	587	57%	8%	15%	11%	7%	1%	42% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	57,259	58.7%	30.2%	2.6%	6.0%	1.2%	1.4%	28.5% over LD

St Austell and Newquay

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
15 Mar 2015	Ashcroft	1002	32%	10%	26%	20%	6%	4%	6% over LD
6–16 Aug 2014	Ashcroft	493	27%	13%	26%	25%	6%	3%	1% over LD
19–25 May 2014	Ashcroft^[14]	473	32%	10%	24%	25%	4%	5%	7% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	47,238	40.0%	7.2%	42.7%	3.7%	–	6.4%	2.8% over Con

Stevenage

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
8–13 Dec 2014	Ashcroft	497	38%	33%	7%	18%	3%	0%	5% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	44,651	33.4%	41.4%	16.6%	4.5%	–	4.1%	8.0% over Lab

Stockton South

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
31 Mar–4 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1000	39%	44%	3%	9%	1%	3%	5% over Con
6–12 Nov 2014	Survation/Unite	571	39.1%	36.5%	2.8%	18.2%	3.1%	0.2%	2.6% over Lab
26 Jun–4 Jul 2014	Ashcroft	521	35%	38%	4%	19%	2%	2%	3% over Con
7–13 Apr 2014	Ashcroft	512	36%	43%	5%	12%	0%	3%	7% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	50,284	38.9%	38.3%	15.1%	2.9%	–	4.8%	0.6% over Lab

Stroud

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
11–16 Jul 2014	Ashcroft	561	30%	41%	6%	11%	11%	<0.5%	11% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	57,973	40.8%	38.6%	15.4%	2.2%	2.7%	0.2%	2.2% over Lab

Sutton and Cheam

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
6-16 August 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	11%	27%	45%	14%	3%	0%	18% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	48,508	7.0%	42.4%	45.7%	2.0%	0.5%	2.5%	3.3% over Con

Thurrock

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	UKIP	LD	Others	Lead
7 May 2015	General Election Results	49,964	33.7%	32.6%	31.7%	1.3%	0.7%	1.1% over Lab
17-23 April 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	30%	31%	35%	1%	3%	4% over Lab
18–26 June 2014	Ashcroft	1,002	28%	30%	36%	2%	4%	6% over Lab
31 Mar–6 Apr 2014	Ashcroft	394	27%	37%	29%	4%	3%	8% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	45,822	36.8%	36.6%	7.4%	10.7%	8.5%	0.2% over Lab

Torbay

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
7 May 2015	General Election Results	48,079	8.7%	40.7%	33.8%	13.6%	3.2%	0.0%	6.9% over LD
12-21 Mar 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	11%	33%	34%	17%	3%	1%	1% over Con
27 Aug - 6 Sep 2014	Ashcroft	1,001	15%	30%	30%	21%	3%	1%	Tied
6 May 2010	General Election Results	49,210	6.6%	38.7%	47.0%	5.3%	1.0%	1.4%	8.3% over Con

Twickenham

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	UKIP	LD	Green	BNP	Others	Lead
11-16 Apr 2014	ICM/Oakeshott	501	34%	23%	5%	32%	4%	1%	1%	2% over LD
6 May 2010	General Election Results	59,721	34.1%	7.7%	1.5%	54.4%	1.1%	1.1%	0.2%	20.3% over Con

Warwick & Leamington

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
1–6 Dec 2014	Ashcroft	534	38%	34%	7%	14%	7%	<0.5%	4% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	49,032	42.6%	35.4%	18.3%	1.9%	1.4%	0.4%	7.2% over Lab

Watford

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
11–20 Nov 2014	Ashcroft	525	30%	24%	28%	14%	3%	0%	2% over LD
20–28 Aug 2014	Ashcroft	525	27%	29%	25%	14%	4%	1%	2% over Con
19 May–6 Jun 2014	Ashcroft	524	29%	25%	24%	16%	6%	0%	4% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	55,208	34.9%	26.7%	32.4%	2.2%	1.6%	2.2%	2.6% over LD

Weaver Vale

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
14-22 Jul 2014	Ashcroft	1,001	32%	41%	6%	18%	2%	1%	9% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	43,990	38.5%	36.3%	18.6%	2.3%	0.8%	3.4%	2.2% over Lab

Wirral West

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
24-30 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	43%	46%	3%	5%	2%	0%	3% over Con
3–12 Mar 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	37%	42%	5%	10%	5%	1%	5% over Con
22–26 Oct 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	38%	39%	6%	12%	4%	1%	1% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	39,372	42.5%	36.3%	16.8%	2.3%	–	2.1%	6.2% over Lab

Witney

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	LD	UKIP	Lab	Green	Others	Lead
2–4 Dec 2014	Survation/Unite	531	53%	4%	19%	16%	7%	1%	34% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	57,769	58.8%	19.4%	3.5%	13.0%	4.1%	1.2%	39.4% over LD

Worcester

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	BNP	Others	Lead
3–12 Mar 2015	Ashcroft	1,002	38%	33%	4%	15%	7%	–	2%	5% over Lab
13–19 Oct 2014	Ashcroft	1,002	34%	36%	5%	17%	7%	–	1%	2% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	48,974	39.5%	33.4%	19.4%	2.8%	1.5%	2.5%	0.7%	6.1% over Lab

Wyre Forest

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	BNP	ICHC	Others	Lead
11–20 Nov 2014	Ashcroft	518	32%	16%	7%	27%	5%	<1%	-	13%	5% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	50,899	36.9%	14.3%	11.9%	2.9%	–	2.2%	31.7%	–	5.2% over ICHC

Wythenshawe and Sale East

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	UKIP	Con	LD	Others	Lead
13 Feb 2014	Wythenshawe by-election Result	23,961	55.3%	18.0%	14.5%	4.9%	7.3%	37.3% over UKIP
3–5 Feb 2014	Ashcroft (By-election polling)	1,009	61%	15%	14%	5%	4%	46% over UKIP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	40,751	44.1%	3.4%	25.6%	22.3%	4.6%	18.6% over Con

Northern Ireland

Belfast East

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	DUP	APNI	UUP	PUP	TUV	SF	UKIP	Green	SDLP	Others	Lead
7 May 2015	General Election Results	39,682	49.3%	42.8%	–	–	–	2.1%	–	–	0.3%	2.8%	6.5% over APNI
12–28 Jan 2015	LucidTalk	820	34.4%	28.7%	14.6%	6.5%	2.8%	1.8%	1.6%	1.5%	0.8%	7.5%	5.7% over APNI
6 May 2010	General Election Results	34,488	32.8%	37.2%	21.2%	–	5.4%	2.4%	–	–	1.1%	–	4.4% over DUP

Scotland

Airdrie and Shotts

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
7 May 2015	General Election Results	44,286	7.7%	34.1%	1.5%	2.5%	-	53.9%	0.3%	19.8% over Lab
14–22 Jan 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	7%	39%	1%	5%	1%	47%	0%	8% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	35,849	8.7%	58.2%	8.1%	–	–	23.5%	1.5%	34.6% over SNP

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
7 May 2015	General Election Results	52,209	19.8%	27.3%	1.6%	2.5%	-	48.8%	-	21.6% over Lab
10–19 Feb 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	21%	31%	2%	3%	0%	42%	1%	11% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	45,893	25.5%	47.1%	9.3%	–	–	18.0%	–	21.6% over Con

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
7 May 2015	General Election Results	55,038	36.0%	4.9%	18.7%	2.4%	1.1%	36.6%	0.2%	0.6% over Con
13-16 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,001	30%	9%	28%	3%	1%	29%	0%	1% over SNP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	40,014	33.8%	10.2%	45.4%	1.2%	–	9.2%	0.3%	11.6% over Con

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
7 May 2015	General Election Results	50,698	6.3%	33.9%	1.1%	2.1%	-	56.6%	-	22.7% over Lab
7–17 Jan 2015	Ashcroft	1,001	6%	43%	1%	3%	1%	46%	1%	3% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	41,635	8.1%	66.6%	8.5%	–	–	16.8%	–	49.8% over SNP

Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
7 May 2015	General Election Results	49,382	7.9%	30.0%	2.2%	-	-	59.9%	-	29.9% over Lab
14–22 Jan 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	6%	34%	2%	3%	3%	52%	1%	18% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	41,150	8.3%	57.2%	9.5%	–	–	23.8%	1.2%	33.3% over SNP

Dumfries and Galloway

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
7 May 2015	General Election Results	55,432	29.9%	24.7%	1.7%	2.3%	–	41.4%	–	11.5% over Con
19–26 Feb 2015	Ashcroft	1,002	30%	28%	2%	4%	2%	34%	0%	4% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	52,173	31.6%	45.9%	8.8%	1.3%	–	12.3%	–	14.3% over Con

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
7 May 2015	General Election Results	52,134	39.8%	14.8%	2.7%	2.8%	1.6%	38.3%	-	1.5% over SNP
24-29 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	31%	17%	5%	4%	2%	42%	-	11% over Con
9-15 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	34%	20%	4%	2%	2%	36%	1%	2% over Con
10–19 Feb 2015	Ashcroft	1,001	34%	18%	7%	4%	2%	34%	1%	Tied
6 May 2010	General Election Results	45,892	38.0%	28.9%	19.8%	1.4%	1.1%	10.8%	–	9.1% over Lab

Dundee West

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
7 May 2015	General Election Results	44,714	8.6%	23.7%	2.4%	-	2.7%	61.9%	0.7%	38.2% over Lab
23–30 Jan 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	6%	25%	3%	2%	5%	59%	0%	34% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	37,126	9.3%	48.5%	11.4%	–	–	28.9%	1.9%	19.6% over SNP

East Dunbartonshire

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
7 May 2015	General Election Results	54,871	8.6%	12.3%	36.3%	1.0%	1.5%	40.3%	-	4.0% over LD
10-16 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	12%	16%	29%	1%	1%	40%	0%	11% over LD
6 May 2010	General Election Results	47,948	15.5%	34.1%	38.7%	1.1%	–	10.5%	-	4.6% over Lab

East Renfrewshire

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Lead
7 May 2015	General Election Results	56,825	21.9%	34.0%	1.8%	1.6%	–	40.6%	6.5% over Lab
24-30 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	20%	36%	3%	1%	1%	39%	3% over Lab
11-16 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,002	25%	31%	3%	1%	1%	40%	9% over Lab
16–26 Feb 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	26%	34%	2%	1%	3%	33%	1% over SNP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	51,181	30.4%	50.8%	9.2%	0.7%	–	8.9%	20.4% over Con

Edinburgh North and Leith

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
14 - 17 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	14%	29%	6%	1%	6%	43%	0%	14% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	47,356	14.9%	37.5%	33.8%	–	2.2%	9.6%	1.6%	3.5% over LD

Edinburgh South

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
13 - 17 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	16%	34%	8%	1%	4%	37%	1%	3% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	43,801	21.6%	34.7%	34.0%	–	2.0%	7.7%	-	0.7% over LD

Edinburgh South West

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
11–19 Feb 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	19%	27%	4%	2%	7%	40%	0%	13% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	45,462	24.3%	42.8%	18.0%	–	1.9%	12.2%	0.8%	18.6% over Con

Glasgow Central

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
5–10 Jan 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	5%	35%	3%	3%	7%	45%	2%	10% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	30,572	7.1%	52.0%	16.4%	0.8%	2.6%	17.5%	3.6%	34.5% over SNP

Glasgow East

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
5–8 Jan 2015	Ashcroft	1,001	4%	37%	1%	4%	2%	51%	2%	14% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	32,164	4.5%	61.6%	5.0%	0.6%	–	24.7%	3.5%	36.8% over SNP

Glasgow North

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
5–10 Jan 2015	Ashcroft	1,001	5%	33%	4%	1%	11%	45%	1%	12% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	29,613	7.1%	44.5%	31.3%	–	3.2%	11.9%	2.0%	13.2% over LD

Glasgow North East

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
5–8 Jan 2015	Ashcroft	1,001	4%	46%	1%	5%	4%	39%	1%	7% over SNP
6 May 2010	General Election Results	29,409	5.3%	68.3%	7.7%	–	–	14.1%	4.4%	54.2% over SNP

Glasgow North West

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
7–17 Jan 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	7%	38%	3%	2%	5%	44%	1%	6% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	35,582	9.9%	54.1%	15.8%	–	2.5%	15.3%	2.5%	38.3% over LD

Glasgow South

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
7–16 Jan 2015	Ashcroft	1,001	9%	33%	2%	3%	3%	48%	1%	15% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	40,094	11.5%	51.7%	11.8%	–	2.4%	20.1%	2.5%	31.6% over SNP

Glasgow South West

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
11-16 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,003	6%	34%	2%	3%	1%	55%	1%	21% over Lab
7–15 Jan 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	4%	42%	2%	5%	2%	45%	1%	3% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	31,781	6.6%	62.5%	9.0%	–	–	16.3%	5.5%	46.2% over SNP

Gordon

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
22–29 Jan 2015	Ashcroft	1,002	11%	14%	26%	4%	1%	43%	1%	17% over LD
6 May 2010	General Election Results	48,775	18.7%	20.1%	36.0%	–	1.5%	22.2%	1.4%	13.8% over SNP

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
20–29 Jan 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	10%	13%	21%	4%	1%	50%	1%	29% over LD
23–26 May 2014	ICM/Oakeshott	500	12%	25%	16%	7%	4%	32%	3%	7% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	47,086	13.3%	22.1%	40.7%	1.2%	1.7%	18.7%	2.5%	18.6% over Lab

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
19–26 Feb 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	7%	39%	3%	3%	3%	45%	0%	6% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	45,802	9.3%	64.5%	9.3%	1.7%	–	14.3%	0.9%	50.2% over SNP

Motherwell and Wishaw

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
14–22 Jan 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	5%	39%	1%	3%	1%	50%	1%	11% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	39,123	9.4%	61.1%	9.8%	–	–	18.2%	1.6%	42.9% over SNP

North East Fife

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
10-16 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	16%	9%	30%	4%	1%	43%	1%	13% over LD
6 May 2010	General Election Results	40,064	21.8%	17.1%	44.3%	2.6%	-	14.2%	-	22.6% over Con

Paisley and Renfrewshire South

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
7 May 2015	General Election Results	46,226	7.6%	38.6%	2.2%	–	–	50.9%	0.6%	12.3% over Lab
11-16 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,005	6%	39%	1%	2%	1%	50%	1%	11% over Lab
22–29 Jan 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	6%	40%	2%	1%	2%	48%	1%	8% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	39,998	9.9%	59.6%	9.5%	–	–	18.1%	2.9%	41.5% over SNP

Ross, Skye and Lochaber

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
9-15 Apr 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	7%	6%	33%	2%	3%	48%	1%	15% over LD
16–26 Feb 2015	Ashcroft	1,001	8%	9%	35%	2%	5%	40%	1%	5% over LD
6 May 2010	General Election Results	34,838	12.2%	15.1%	52.6%	1.9%	2.2%	15.1%	0.8%	37.5% over Lab

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
11–19 Feb 2015	Ashcroft	1,001	25%	10%	20%	3%	2%	39%	0%	14% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	45,195	30.3%	13.6%	38.4%	0.9%	–	15.7%	1.1%	8.1% over Con

West Dunbartonshire

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	SNP	Others	Lead
14–22 Jan 2015	Ashcroft	1,000	6%	38%	1%	4%	2%	47%	1%	9% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	42,266	7.7%	61.3%	8.1%	1.6%	–	20.1%	1.2%	41.2% over SNP

Wales

Brecon and Radnorshire

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Plaid	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
27 Oct–1 Nov 2014	Ashcroft	553	8%	15%	27%	31%	17%	2%	0%	4% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	38,845	2.5%	10.5%	36.5%	46.2%	2.3%	0.9%	1.1%	9.6% over Con

Cardiff Central

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Plaid	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
19–22 Sep 2014	Ashcroft	542	9%	36%	17%	24%	9%	5%	<0.5%	12% over LD
6 May 2010	General Election Results	36,151	3.4%	28.8%	21.6%	41.4%	2.1%	1.6%	1.0%	12.6% over Lab

Cardiff North

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Plaid	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
18–27 Jun 2014	Ashcroft	1,000	7%	41%	30%	6%	12%	3%	1%	11% over Con
31 Mar–6 Apr 2014	Ashcroft	461	7%	41%	34%	8%	8%	1%	<0.5%	7% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	47,630	3.3%	37.1%	37.5%	18.3%	2.4%	0.8%	0.6%	0.4% over Lab

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Plaid	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
8–13 Dec 2014	Ashcroft	515	16%	29%	33%	4%	14%	3%	1%	4% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	40,507	10.4%	32.7%	41.1%	12.1%	2.8%	–	0.9%	8.5% over Lab

Vale of Glamorgan

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Plaid	Lab	Con	LD	UKIP	Green	Others	Lead
2–12 Feb 2015	Ashcroft	532	12%	32%	38%	4%	10%	3%	1%	6% over Lab
6 May 2010	General Election Results	48,667	5.5%	32.9%	41.8%	15.2%	3.1%	0.9%	0.5%	8.8% over Lab

Multiple constituency polling

Some polls are carried out in specified subsets of marginal constituencies. Most of the polls for Lord Ashcroft were compilations of polls in individual constituencies.

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	No of Seats surveyed	Incumbents by party	Sample size	Con	Lab	UKIP	LD	Green	Others
1–14 Dec 2014	Ashcroft	8	8 Con	8,000	36%	35%	14%	6%	5%^[15]	2%
20–29 Nov 2014	Ashcroft	4	4 Lab	4,002	22%	37%	33%	5%	2%^[16]	1%
15–24 Nov 2014	ComRes/ITV News	40	25 Con, 15 Lab	743	31%	39%	18%	7%	4%	<0.5%
2–27 Oct 2014	Ashcroft	12	12 Con	12,008	32%	35%	23%	5%	4%	1%
10 Sep–3 Oct 2014	Ashcroft	11	11 Con	11,002	32%	38%	18%	5%	5%	1%
18–26 Sep 2014	ComRes/ITV News	40	25 Con, 15 Lab	766	30%	41%	17%	6%	5%	2%
31 Jul–14 Sep 2014	Ashcroft	5	5 LibDem	5,000	15%	38%	10%	28%	6%	3%
31 Jul–6 Sep 2014	Ashcroft	17	2 Con, 15 LibDem	8,909	32%	13%	17%	32%	4%	1%
11 Jul–11 Aug 2014	Ashcroft	8	8 Con	8,005	30%	40%	8%	17%	5%	1%
11 Jul–11 Aug 2014	Ashcroft	4	4 Lab	4,001	30%	43%	9%	13%	4%	1%
18 Jun–16 Jul 2014	Ashcroft	14	14 Con	14,004	31%	38%	4%	21%	4%	2%
18–25 Jun 2014	ComRes/ITV News	40	25 Con, 15 Lab	795	31%	36%	17%	7%	6%	3%
11–22 Jun 2014	Ashcroft	4	4 LD	1,963	12%	47%	10%	19%	9%	2%
11 May–14 Jun 2014	Ashcroft	17	6 Con, 11 LibDem	8,728	33%	14%	18%	28%	6%^[17]	1%
15–20 May 2014	ComRes/Independent	40	25 Con, 15 Lab	1,030	33% (−4)	35% (−2)	17% (+14)	8% (−10)	4%	2%
31 Mar–18 May 2014	Ashcroft	26	14 Con, 12 Lab	26,025	29%	41%	18%	8%		4%
1 Aug–5 Sep 2013	Ashcroft	40	40 Con	12,809	30%	35%	12%	13%		10%

Explanatory notes

The Lord Ashcroft polls typically ask two voting intention questions, with the second question asking the respondent to think "specifically about your own constituency and the candidates who are likely to stand there".^[2] This latter question is reported in the tables above.

Most polling companies are members of the British Polling Council and abide by its disclosure rules; however, Michael Ashcroft, who commissioned many of these polls, is not a BPC member, despite having been invited to join. However, he contracts the conduct of his polls to BPC members.^[18]

References and notes

↑ Patrick Wintour. "Lib Dem polling brings hope of future coalition role". the Guardian.
1 2 "Introducing the New Statesman Political Index: Lib Dems to win at least 30 seats". newstatesman.com.
↑ "Ed Miliband and Doncaster North: a correction (and apology) – Lord Ashcroft Polls". lordashcroftpolls.com.
↑ Percentages for UKIP/Others based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
↑ Percentages for UKIP/Others based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
↑ Percentage for Greens based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
↑ Percentages for UKIP/Green/Others based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
↑ Based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/won't say
↑ By-election polling
↑ This poll originally, erroneously, showed a small lead for the LDs: see http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/sheffield-hallam-doncaster-north-thanet-south/#more-7536
↑ Sheffield Hallam Constituency Poll for The Guardian - ICM Media Centre, 4 May 2015
↑ Candidates named in the poll.
↑ Candidates named in the poll.
↑ Share for Greens based on a table that did not further prompt "don't know" and refusers.
↑ Based on a mean of the (non-aggregated) shares of 3%, 9%, 3%, 3%, 3%, 5%, 3% and 7% in the eight constituencies
↑ Based on non-aggregated shares of 3%, 2%, 2% and 2% in the four constituencies
↑ Based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
↑ "Sheffield Hallam, Doncaster North and Thanet South". Michael Ashcroft. Retrieved 2015-02-07. "Minutes of the Annual General Meeting 2013". British Polling Council. Retrieved 2014-05-19.

^P – The dates when the fieldwork for this poll was carried out is unknown, therefore the date of publication has been given.

Notes

External links

Ipsos Mori archive of all pollsters' polls
British Polling Council
Electoral Calculus
UK Polling Report Blog
- UK Polling Report – 2015 Election Guide
ICM Polls
Populus Polls
Political Polls
ComRes Polls
Angus Reid Public Opinion

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