Opinion polling in the 2008 Austrian legislative election

Austrian legislative election, 2008

28 September 2008

183 seats in the National Council of Austria 92 seats were needed for a majority   First party Second party Third party   Leader Werner Faymann Wilhelm Molterer Heinz-Christian Strache Party SPÖ ÖVP FPÖ Leader since 2008 2007 2005 Leader's seat 9 Vienna 4D Traunviertel 9D Vienna South Last election 68 seats, 35.34% 66 seats, 34.33% 21 seats, 11.04% Seats won 57 51 34 Seat change 11 15 13 Popular vote 1,430,206 1,269,656 857,029 Percentage 29.26% 25.98% 17.54% Swing 6.08% 8.35% 6.50%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Jörg Haider Alexander Van der Bellen Heide Schmidt Party BZÖ Greens LiF Leader since 2008 1997 2008 Leader's seat 2A Klagenfurt 9F Vienna North-West 9F Vienna North-West Last election 7 seats, 4.11% 21 seats, 11.05% did not contest on their own Seats won 21 20 0 Seat change 14 1 0 Popular vote 522,933 509,936 102,249 Percentage 10.70% 10.43% 2.09% Swing 6.59% 0.62% 2.09%

Chancellor before election Alfred Gusenbauer SPÖ Elected Chancellor Werner Faymann SPÖ

A legislative snap election for the National Council in Austria was held on 28 September 2008.^[1] The previous election was held on 1 October 2006. The election (the 24th in Austrian history) was caused by the withdrawal of Austrian People's Party leader Wilhelm Molterer from the governing grand coalition (led by the Social Democratic Party of Austria) on 7 July 2008.^[2] Due to dissatisfaction with the grand coalition and the two main parties, it was widely expected to be a realigning election, with gains for the opposition and up to seven parties expected to be in the National Council after the election.^[3][4][5][6] The losses for the government parties (both the SPÖ and the ÖVP had the worst election result in history) resulted in strong gains for the far right, while neither the Liberal Forum nor the Citizens' Forum Austria (both of which were considered to have chances of gaining seats) gained as much as 2% of the vote, defying earlier expectations. The result of the election was seen as strong for the far-right and in support of Eurosceptics.^[7]

Molterer resigned as party chairman as a result of the losses suffered by the ÖVP and was replaced by environment minister Josef Pröll; the Greens' federal spokesman Alexander Van der Bellen (in office since 1997) also resigned and was replaced by his deputy, Eva Glawischnig. Due to the LIF's failure to enter parliament on its own, LIF founder Heide Schmidt and financier Hans-Peter Haselsteiner both declared their complete withdrawal from politics, and the LIF's fate was seen as uncertain. Shortly after the election, BZÖ leader and Carinthian governor Jörg Haider died in a car accident.

Opinion polling

Agency	Date	SPÖ	ÖVP	GRÜNE	FPÖ	BZÖ	LIF	FRITZ	KPÖ	RETTÖ	DC	Others	SKÖ	MATIN
OGM	2008-06-21	33	33	14	16	4	—	—	—	—	—	—	~	#
market	2008-07-02	27	33	14	21	3	—	—	—	—	—	2	~	#
Fessel-GfK	2008-07-08	28	35	14	20	3	—	—	—	—	—	—	~	#
market	2008-07-09	26	33	14	22	4	—	—	—	—	—	1	~	#
Gallup	2008-07-10	27	32	16	19	4	—	—	—	—	—	2	~	#
Gallup	2008-07-10	21	23	14	18	5	2	7	2	—	—	2	(2)	(4)
Integral	2008-07-12	28	31	14	16	4	—	5	—	—	—	2	~	#
OGM	2008-07-13	30	33	14	18	3	—	—	—	—	—	2	~	#
Gallup	2008-07-17	24	26	16	19	5	2	6	—	—	—	—	~	#
Humaninstitut	2008-07-17	25	28	11	19	2	—	—	—	—	—	15	~	#
IMAS	2008-07-19	24	29	15	20	4	—	5	—	—	—	3	~	#
Gallup	2008-07-25	27	30	16	19	5	—	—	—	—	—	—	~	#
Gallup	2008-07-25	25	29	14	15	7	4	6	—	—	—	—	~	#
OGM	2008-07-29	25	30	13	17	4	4	5	—	—	—	2	~	#
IMAS	2008-07-29	25	29	15	18	6	—	—	—	—	—	—	~	#
Gallup	2008-07-31	23	26	15	17	7	5	7	—	—	—	—	~	#
Fessel-GfK	2008-08-04	25	29	12–13	17–18	2–3	3–4	4–5	—	—	—	—	~	#
market	2008-08-07	26	29	14	20	3	3	4	—	—	—	—	~	#
Gallup	2008-08-08	26	26	14	19	6	3	6	—	—	—	—	~	#
Gallup	2008-08-14	27	28	15	17	5	3	5	—	—	—	—	~	#
OGM	2008-08-16	26	31	13	17	4	4	4	—	—	—	—	~	#
market	2008-08-20	26	27	14	20	5	3	4	—	—	—	1	~	#
IMAS	2008-08-20	27–29	27–29	12–14	17–19	6–8	—	—	—	—	—	7–9	~	#
Gallup	2008-08-24	25	26	15	18	6	4	4	—	—	—	2	~	#
market	2008-08-27	28	26	13	20	4	3	3	—	—	—	3	~	#
Gallup	2008-08-28	27	26	12	19	5	4	4	—	—	—	3	~	#
IFES	2008-08-29	26	26	16	15	5	—	4	—	—	—	8	~	#
IMAS	2008-08-29	26–28	25–27	12–14	17–19	6–8	3–4	3–4	1–2	1–2	0–1	—	~	#
Fessel-GfK	2008-08-30	28	26	12	17	>4	4	—	—	—	—	<9	~	#
OGM	2008-08-31	27	28	12	18	6	4	3	—	—	—	2	~	#
market	2008-09-03	28	25	12	20	5	3	3	1	1	—	2	~	#
Gallup	2008-09-04	28	27	12	17	6	4	3	—	—	—	3	~	#
Humaninstitut	2008-09-04	32	19	12	19	10	4	4	—	—	—	—	~	#
OGM	2008-09-06	29	27	12	17	7	4	2	—	—	—	2	~	#
GMK	2008-09-08	30	27	11	18	6	3	4	—	—	—	—	~	#
market	2008-09-10	29	27	11	18	7	3	2	—	—	—	3	~	#
Fessel-GfK	2008-09-11	25.8	28.5	17	12.7	6.7	2.1	1.2	3.3	—	1.5	1.2	~	#
Gallup	2008-09-12	28	27	12	16	6	4	3	—	—	—	4	~	#
IFES	2008-09-12	27	27	13	17	5	4	3	—	—	—	4	~	#
Spectra	2008-09-12	28–31	26–29	11–13	15–17	7–9	2–4	1–3	—	—	—	—	~	#
OGM	2008-09-13	28	26	12	18	8	4	2	—	—	—	2	~	#
Integral	2008-09-16	28	28	12	18	7	4	2	—	—	—	2	~	#
market	2008-09-16	29	26	11	20	6	3	2	—	—	—	3	~	#
Gallup	2008-09-18	28	26	12	17	8	4	3	—	—	—	2	~	#
OGM	2008-09-20	29	26	11	18	8	4	2	—	—	—	2	~	#
market	2008-09-23	29	27	10	19	8	3	2	—	—	—	2	~	#
IFES	2008-09-26	27	27	12	16	7	5	2	—	—	—	4	~	#
Gallup	2008-09-26	29	27	12	17	8	3	2	—	—	—	2	~	#

~ Failed to collect the required signatures.
# Decided not to contest the election.

Kanzlerfrage (chancellor question)

Agency	Date	Faymann (SPÖ)	Molterer (ÖVP)	Van der Bellen (GRÜNE)	Strache (FPÖ)	Haider (BZÖ)	Schmidt (LIF)	Dinkhauser (FRITZ)
market	2008-07-09	26	29	—	—	—	—	—
Gallup	2008-07-10	40	31	—	—	—	—	—
OGM	2008-07-13	19	18	10	11	3*	—	—
Gallup	2008-07-17	38	31	—	—	—	—	—
Gallup	2008-07-25	39	30	—	—	—	—	—
Gallup	2008-07-31	42	23	—	—	—	—	—
Gallup	2008-08-09	45	26	—	—	—	—	—
Gallup	2008-08-09	40	27	—	—	—	—	—
OGM	2008-08-17	22	19	12	8	6	—	—
Gallup	2008-08-24	42	25	—	—	—	—	—
market	2008-08-27	35	20	—	—	—	—	—
Gallup	2008-08-28	46	27	—	—	—	—	—
OGM	2008-08-31	21	18	12	8	6	2	4
market	2008-09-03	35	21	—	—	—	—	—
Gallup	2008-09-04	45	28	—	—	—	—	—
OGM	2008-09-06	24	17	12	8	8	4	3
market	2008-09-10	35	20	—	—	—	—	—
Gallup	2008-09-12	47	31	—	—	—	—	—
Spectra	2008-09-12	28	17	11	10	9	4	3
OGM	2008-09-13	22	15	9	11	9	4	3
market	2008-09-16	33	23	—	—	—	—	—
Gallup	2008-09-18	45	32	—	—	—	—	—
OGM	2009-09-20	23	16	8	10	9	4	2

* Westenthaler was polled instead of Haider before it was announced that Westenthaler would not be the leading candidate.

Koalitionsfrage (coalition question)

Agency	Date	SPÖ–ÖVP	ÖVP–SPÖ	SPÖ–GRÜNE	ÖVP–GRÜNE	SPÖ–FPÖ(–BZÖ)	ÖVP–FPÖ(–BZÖ)
OGM	14 July 2008	7	9	9	13	6	9
Gallup	4 August 2008	16°	16°	27	18	7	9
OGM	5 September 2008	10	10	11	9	11	13
Gallup	15 September 2008	18°	18°	20	13	17	5

° The two types of grand coalition were not polled separately.

State polls

State	Agency	Date	SPÖ	ÖVP	GRÜNE	FPÖ	BZÖ	LIF	FRITZ	Others
Salzburg	IFG	2008-07-10	23	37	11	17	5	—	4	3
Salzburg	IFG	2008-09-11	27	31	11	15	7	3	2	4
Upper Austria	Spectra	2008-08-02	28–30	26–28	13–15	16–18	4–6	1–3	—	6–8
Vienna	OEKONSULT	2008-08-17	39.20	16.04	17.08	20.18	3.23	—	—	4.27

Kanzlerfrage (chancellor question)

State	Agency	Date	Faymann (SPÖ)	Molterer (ÖVP)	Strache (FPÖ)	Van der Bellen (GRÜNE)	Haider (BZÖ)
Upper Austria	Spectra	2008-08-02	44	26	—	—	—

Koalitionsfrage (coalition question)

State	Agency	Date	SPÖ–ÖVP	SPÖ–GRÜNE	ÖVP–GRÜNE	SPÖ–FPÖ(–BZÖ)	ÖVP–FPÖ(–BZÖ)
Salzburg	IFG	10 July 2008	16	17	22	9	19
Salzburg	IFG	11 September 2008	26	11	18	11	10

References

1. "28. September als Neuwahltermin fix" (in German). Orf.at. Retrieved 26 November 2008.
2. "BBC NEWS | World | Europe | Austria ruling coalition crumbles". News.bbc.co.uk. 7 July 2008. Archived from the original on 19 December 2008. Retrieved 26 November 2008.
3. Bronner Online AG. "derStandard.at". Derstandard.at. Retrieved 26 November 2008.
4. "Die Zeit ist reif für einen Umbruch « DiePresse.com". Diepresse.com. Retrieved 26 November 2008.
5. "Datum 7-8/08 – Seiten der Zeit: Hajek bloggt: Die Unentschlossenen. Das geheime Wesen". Datum.at. Retrieved 26 November 2008.
6. "Listenrekord bei NR-Wahlen | kurier.at". Kurier.at. Archived from the original on February 27, 2012. Retrieved 26 November 2008.
7. Pancevski, Bojan (29 September 2008). "Far Right storms election as Austrians back anti-EU rhetoric – Times Online". The Times (London). Retrieved 26 November 2008.

External links

• Bundesministerium für Inneres: Information on the 2008 National Council election
• ORF: Site of the ORF on the 2008 National Council election
• FM4: Site of FM4 on the 2008 National Council election
• Neuwal: blog with interviews, polls and commentaries (Neuwal, "early whale", is a pun on Neuwahl, "early election".)
• NSD: European Election Database – Austria publishes regional level election data; allows for comparisons of election results, 1991–2010

Political parties

Social Democratic Party of Austria (Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs) Werner Faymann's website Austrian People's Party (Österreichische Volkspartei) Wilhelm Molterer's website The Greens – The Green Alternative (Die Grünen – Die Grüne Alternative) Alexander Van der Bellen's website Freedom Party of Austria (Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs) Heinz-Christian Strache's website Alliance for the Future of Austria (Bündnis Zukunft Österreich) Liberal Forum (Liberales Forum) Heide Schmidt's website supported by Unity List (Enotna lista/Einheitsliste) Citizens' Forum Austria (Bürgerforum Österreich) Communist Party of Austria (Kommunistische Partei Österreichs) Save Austria (Rettet Österreich) The Christians (Die Christen)

Left (Linke) Animal Rights Party (Tierrechtspartei) Dipl.-Ing. Karlheinz Klement Black-Yellow Alliance (Schwarz-Gelbe Allianz) Pirate Party of Austria (Piratenpartei Österreichs) Humans Austria (Menschen Österreich) WE (WIR) Democratic Diversity of Austria (Demokratische Diversität Österreichs) plattform-direkt.at The Whites of Austria (Die Weißen Österreichs) I DON'T VOTE (ICH WÄHLE NICHT) Certainly – Absolutely – Independent (Sicher – Absolut – Unabhängig) Dr Martin's List (Liste Dr. Martin) Neutral Free Austria (Neutrales Freies Österreich) Party3 (Partei3)