Peter Pham

Peter Pham
Born Peter Pham
Campbell River, British Columbia, Canada
Occupation Hedge Fund Manager, Author, Capital Markets Historian
Nationality Canadian
Subject Investing
Trading
Economics
Notable works The Big Trade: Simple Strategies for Maximum Market Returns; The Big Trade Series; Global Growth and Income; Breaking with Tradition
Website

Phoenix Capital

The Big Trade Series

Peter Pham is an author, international fund manager, and a registered financial director by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority (CIMA).[1][2] In 2013 he published his first book entitled,The Big Trade: Simple Strategies for Maximum Market Returns.[1][3] He currently manages the portfolio of a global hedge fund and runs an asset management company, Phoenix Capital.[2] In 2010 he founded AlphaVN.com, a popular online resource focused on capital markets and trading in Southeast Asia.[2] In 2014, he launched "The Big Trade Series" a podcast consisting of discussions with various financial thought leaders.[4] Overall, Pham has more than 15 years of experience in capital markets and fund management, and is recognized as an expert consultant in global equities.[1][5] Pham's stock picks featured on Seeking Alpha have accumulated an average return of 59% over a two-year period.[6][7]

Career

Phoenix Capital

Pham's career stretches 15 years of experience working in capital markets, including senior positions at several respected brokerage and investment firms, and work with some of the world's largest international funds.[1] In March 2014 he founded Phoenix Capital, a Cayman Islands exempted asset management company that offers investment and financial advisory services.[8][9] Pham currently manages the portfolio of Global Growth and Income Fund, an open-end global fund designed to outperform the MSCI-Barra World Free index with a mix of young high-growth and mature high-income vehicles.[2]

Investments

Pham's stock picks featured on Seeking Alpha have accumulated an average return of 59% over a two-year period.[6][7] This average includes all of Pham's recommendations published throughout his Seeking Alpha run, including long and short positions that have performed both positively and negatively.[6][7] One of his most successful positions on the site is his long position on Netflix.[10][11] In 2012 Pham commented on a deal between Netflix and Disney, in which he praised the move for creating strong economic goodwill for Netflix and improving distribution.[10] Netflix stock has risen significantly since the time of Pham's recommendations.[10] Another long position that has performed well for Pham is Nokia.[12] He wrote several pieces from 2012 - 2013 detailing some positive signs of growth for Nokia and praising some of their new products.[12][13] Nokia's stock has recovered significantly since the time of his recommendations.[12] In 2012 Pham also advocated for a long position in 3D Systems, stating that the disruptive technology offered by this company would be worth considering for forward thinking investors.[14] One of Pham's recent positions is in the US dollar and the S&P 500, which has also proven to be successful for him and his fund.[15]

Writing

In 2013, John Wiley & Sons published Pham's first book, The Big Trade: Simple Strategies for Maximum Market Returns.[1] The thesis of the book states that one must look at markets from an agnostic and pragmatic standpoint, and assess markets based on available information and statistics. His book preaches the use of probabilities to determine ideal points to begin building a position.[1] Pham's book and his various media publications express his views on a number of topics including the use of fundamental analysis, quantitative analysis, technical analysis, and the outlook for Asian capital markets.[1][9]

Ideas

Fundamental Analysis

Pham is a proponent of fundamental analysis.[1][16] He describes fundamental analysis as a, "set of tools you use to consider the structural underpinnings of a market or stock."[16] He claims that fundamental analysis places an important emphasis on research, and takes into account things like macroeconomics, that are not taken into account in other forms of analysis.[16] Pham states that fundamental analysis can give an investor a story on the background and present situation of a company, which is an important tool to utilize but can not serve as the be all, end all of an investor's approach.[16]

Quantitative Analysis

Much like fundamental analysis, Pham supports the use of quantitative analysis in investing.[1] He encourages the use of statistics and probabilities to build an understanding of a stock's past movements and determine an effective market entry or exit point.[1] Pham insists that quantitative analysis is the universal method and necessary tool for investment decisions.[1] He believes in a balance between quantitative and fundamental analysis to create an effective trading strategy.[1]

Fallacies of Technical Analysis

Reification
Multistability

In his book and other publications, Pham expresses strong opinions against the use of technical analysis.[1][17] Pham is of the viewpoint that rather than being predictive, markets are probabilistic, and these probabilities in the market are effective in determining a stock's behavior.[17] Pham suggests that rather than using the patterns associated with technical analysis, an investor should rely more on a stock's intrinsic value and market auction theory.[1] He claims that technical analysis creates reification and multistability within the mind of an investor.[1] Reification is the brain's ability to add something to a pattern that is not specifically there, while multistability refers to a pattern with multiple viable outcomes.[1] Pham claims that these two processes are especially present when discussing technical analysis and its reliance on patters which, in Pham's opinion, hold no predictive weight as markets rely on probabilities.[1]

Pham calls upon the scientific method in his critique of technical analysis.[1] He states that due to the fact that technical analysis is based entirely on inductive reasoning, it can not produce falsifiable hypotheses.[1] Because of this, Pham asserts that technical analysis can demonstrate correlations, but not causality.[1] This means that while two things might correlate with each other, one did not necessarily directly cause the other to occur.

Asian Capital Markets

Pham resides in Asia, and has frequently expressed his opinions on various aspects of Asian capital markets.[9][18] Specifically, Pham is of the opinion that investors in places like London or New York City will soon start flocking to Singapore due to greater transparency and incentives for bullion trading.[18] Pham has also been vocal about the sovereign debt situation in Southeast Asia and the negative effects state policies have on capital markets in the region.[9][19]

Media Presence

Pham has been an active contributor to various media outlets for financial and trading information including The Motley Fool, Seeking Alpha, and CNN Money.[20][21][22] Pham has also been featured multiple times on Bloomberg where he has discussed his views on topics such as Twitter expanding into Asia and the tensions between Vietnam and China.[3][23] In addition, he has also been interviewed for notable financial news publications including Financial Times, Reuters, Dow Jones and The Wall Street Journal.[19][24][25] His writing has also been featured in Active Trader, and websites like Minyanville, Euromoney, and Trading Markets.[2][9][16][17][26][27]

Podcast

Peter Pham and Jim Rogers
Jim Rogers shares his thoughts on "The Big Trade Series"

In 2014, the inaugural episode of Pham's podcast, "The Big Trade Series", was launched on iTunes where it has been featured globally in the iTunes store's "New and Noteworthy" section.[4] The podcast is also available on the podcast hosting website, Podomatic, where it is ranked as the #1 podcast in the site's "Investing" category.[28] The podcast offers financial market insights through casual, thought provoking discussions, and has featured numerous financial thought leaders as guests including Jim Rogers, James Altucher, Rick Rule, Jack Schwager, Porter Stansberry, Meb Faber, Vitaliy Katsenelson, Andrew Horowitz, Kim Iskyan, Gary Dorsch, Victor Ricciardi, Frank Curzio, and Richard Maybury.[4]

List of Episodes

Release Date Title Synopsis
February 27, 2015 Millennial Money Patrick O'Shaughnessy, author of "Millennial Money: How Young Investors Can Build a Fortune" and portfolio manager at O'Shaughnessy Asset Management, joins the podcast to talk about trends among young investors today and how the youth can get more involved in capital markets.
February 25, 2015 World Dominator Porter Stansberry talks markets on this episode, including a discussion of his "End of America" scenario and how that is applicable today.
February 19, 2015 - February 27, 2015 Shareholder Yield - Shareholder Yield II Meb Faber of Cambria Investment Management joins the podcast for a two part discussion ranging from his investment strategy to the merits of shareholder yield.
February 17, 2015 Market Wizard Jack Schwager, author of "Market Wizards" sits down for a talk on his experiences and some of the top traders in today's marketplace.
February 13, 2015 Ozymandias Notable author and investor Jim Rogers joins the podcast to talk about the emerging power of Chinese capital markets and the outlook for the United States as a world superpower.
February 9, 2015 Magnum Opus Rick Rule, founder of Sprott Global, makes an appearance to share some of his market insights and his views on the outlook for commodities in 2015 and beyond.
February 5, 2015 The @ of War Shane Harris, author of "@War" joins the show to talk about the emergence of the "military internet complex" and the growing presence of cyber warfare.
January 29, 2015 Lateral Thinking Notable entrepreneur James Altucher joins the show to talk entrepreneurship, and how an individual can better oneself.
January 19, 2015 Survival of the Fittest Andrew Horowitz of TDI Podcast and DH Unplugged joins to talk emerging Asia and the evolution of markets like Vietnam.
January 16, 2015 Antifragile Investments Peter sits down with Vitaliy Katsenelson to discuss a number of topics including Russia, China, stock picks, and the concept of antifragility.
January 14, 2015 The Warren Buffett Library Peter speaks with William Thorndike, author of The Outsiders, about successful companies and CEOs and the strategies that they employ.
January 5, 2015 - January 6, 2015 The 2000 Year Old Man - The 2000 Year Old Man II Richard Maybury, publisher of the “Early Warning Report” newsletter and author of the renowned “Uncle Eric” book series, joins Peter for a two-part discussion on history, economics, and geopolitics.
December 29, 2014 - December 30, 2014 Global Growth and Income - Global Growth and Income II Part one of Peter’s discussion with Kim Isykan, editor of The Global Contrarian newsletter includes a discussion on the capital markets of Iran and Russia. In part two Peter and Kim discuss various capital markets including Myanmar, Thailand, Mongolia and Venezuela.
December 23, 2014 Financial Planning & Investing for Next Year Peter talks with Professor Victor Ricciardi, author of Investor Behavior: The Psychology of Financial Planning and Investing. They discuss using principles of behavioral finance in current markets.
December 19, 2014 - December 22, 2014 Oil Contagion - Oligarchic Economy "Oil Contagion", part one of Peter's discussion with Gary Dorsch, editor of the Global Money Trends newsletter, covers oil prices and their widespread effects on global economies. "Oligarchic Economy", part two with Gary Dorsch, includes discussions on global access to capital markets, as well as global currencies and various commodities.
December 16, 2014 The Big Trade Peter talks with Frank Curzio, host of the podcast Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio. Frank shares some of his stock picks and discusses his experiences working with Porter Stansberry and Jim Cramer.

Publishing History

Books

Articles

References

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Pham, Peter (2013). The Big Trade: Simple Strategies for Maximum Market Returns. John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 Pham, Peter. Global Growth and Income “Active Trader Magazine”. 2014.
  3. 1 2 Dawson, John. Why twitter needs to be more aggressive in Asia “Bloomberg”. 2014.
  4. 1 2 3 https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-big-trade-show/id952345306?mt=2
  5. ↑ Money Talk with Peter Pham - Trading expert “Viet Sun Magazine” . 2014.
  6. 1 2 3 http://seekingalpha.com/author/peter-pham/articles/performance
  7. 1 2 3 http://seekingalpha.com/author/peter-pham/articles
  8. ↑ Mai Lan. CEO Peter Pham: Phượng Hoàng bay ngược Kim Tự Tháp “Bao Dau Tu” . 2014.
  9. 1 2 3 4 5 Townsend, Mark. Vietnam’s banking woes threaten wider economy “Euromoney” . 2014.
  10. 1 2 3 Pham, Peter. "The Force Is Strong With The Netflix / Disney Deal". Seeking Alpha. Retrieved 3 March 2015.
  11. ↑ Pham, Peter. "The Future Of Netflix Is Data Driven". Seeking Alpha. Retrieved 3 March 2015.
  12. 1 2 3 Pham, Peter. "Nokia's Dark Before The Dawn?". Seeking Alpha. Retrieved 3 March 2015.
  13. ↑ Pham, Peter. "Nokia Makes The Right Move With Lumia 520". Seeking Alpha. Retrieved 3 March 2015.
  14. ↑ Pham, Peter. "The Happy Catastrophe Of 3D Printing". Seeking Alpha. Retrieved 3 March 2015.
  15. ↑ Pham, Peter (December 12, 2014). "Fund reaps dividends from U.S. dollar". Investor's Digest of Canada 46 (23).
  16. 1 2 3 4 5 Pham, Peter.Breaking with tradition why I don’t use technical analysis – Part 2 “Trading Markets” . 2013.
  17. 1 2 3 Pham, Peter.Why I don’t use technical analysis – Part 1 “Trading Markets” . 2013.
  18. 1 2 Pham, Peter. Follow the money… to Singapore “CNN Money” . 2012.
  19. 1 2 Bland, Ben. Vietnam: post-congress uncertainties “Financial Times” . 2011.
  20. ↑ Pham, Peter. Gold and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative-easing program “The Motley Fool” . 2013.
  21. ↑ Pham, Peter. Singapore’s multi-year bull run “Seeking Alpha” . 2012.
  22. ↑ Pham, Peter. What QE3 means for China and rest of Asia “CNN Money” . 2012.
  23. ↑ http://www.bloomberg.com/video/the-economic-consequences-of-china-vietnam-tensions-iZA0d7aZQU20Vu5vFakeTQ.html
  24. ↑ Aldred, Stephen. Update 3 – KKR buys 10 pct of Masan in Vietnam’s largest PE deal “Reuters ” . 2011.
  25. ↑ http://www.dowjones.com/products/djfxtrader/articles/CurrencyMarketsOpenUp.asp
  26. ↑ Pham, Peter. Power Play: Investor are drawn to well-diversified Eaton “Minyanville” . 2013.
  27. ↑ Pham, Peter. Three shareholder-friendly companies and how to find more like them “Minyanville” . 2013.
  28. ↑ http://www.podomatic.com/directory/Investing

External links

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