Retirement slump

Retirement slump refers to the average falloff in the party’s vote when the incumbent retires. A positive value of the sophomore surge represents an incumbency advantage. The retirement slump should be positive for an incumbency advantage to exist.[1]

Sophomore surge is the average vote gain for freshman winners in election 1 who run again in election 2. Retirement slump is the average vote loss for the parties whose candidates won election 1 and did not run in election 2.[2]

When a Sophomore surge and a Retirement slump combine, it is what is called a slurge.

References

  1. ↑ "trial.dvi" (PDF). Retrieved 2008-11-07.
  2. ↑ http://gking.harvard.edu/files/inc.pdf
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