Super Bowl indicator

The Super Bowl Indicator is a superstition that says that the stock market's performance in a given year can be predicted based on the outcome of the Super Bowl of that year. It was "discovered" by Leonard Koppett in the '70s when he realized that it had never been wrong, until that point. This pseudo-macroeconomic concept states that if a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins, then it will be a bear market (or down market), but if a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) or a team that was in the NFL before the NFL/AFL merger it will be a bull market (up market).

Data

Year Team League Conference Market
2000 Rams NFL NFC dn
2001 Ravens exp AFC dn
2002 Patriots AFL AFC dn
2003 Buccaneers exp NFC up
2004 Patriots AFL AFC up
2005 Patriots AFL AFC dn
2006 Steelers NFL AFC up
2007 Colts NFL AFC up
2008 Giants NFL NFC dn
2009 Steelers NFL AFC up
2010 Saints NFL NFC up
2011 Packers NFL NFC up
2012 Giants NFL NFC up
2013 Ravens exp AFC up
2014 Seahawks exp NFC up
2015 Patriots AFL AFC dn

Accuracy

As of January 2015, the indicator has been correct 39 out of 48 times, as measured by the S&P 500 Index – a success rate of 81%.[1][2] However, since a particular football league winning a Super Bowl and the US Stock market have no real connection this is just a coincidence. Therefore, there is no reason to expect it will work as a predictor of future bull markets.[3]

See also

References

  1. ↑ Bob Johnson. "Would you base your market bets on the Super Bowl?". CNBC. Retrieved December 31, 2015.
  2. ↑ Mikkelson, Barbara & David P. "The Super Bowl Indicator" at Snopes.com: Urban Legends Reference Pages.
  3. ↑ Don Peppers. "Big Data. Super Bowl. Small Minds.". Retrieved December 31, 2015.


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