The Republicans (France) presidential primary, 2016
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The Republicans will hold presidential primaries to select a candidate for the 2017 presidential election on 20 November 2016, with a possible runoff on 27 November if no candidate obtains at least 50% of the vote in the first round. It will be the first time open primaries have been held for the UMP/LR in France.[3]
Voting procedures
Conditions
Unlike previous UMP primaries, this will be the first primary to be open to the general public.[3] The first round of voting will take place 20 November 2016. A runoff, if necessary, will then be held on 27 November if no candidate obtains at least 50% of the vote in the first round.
Candidates
The list of candidates is not yet final; in the several months before the primary takes place, potential candidates yet to declare may do so and declared candidates may choose to withdraw.
Declared candidates
| Name, age | Details and notes | |
|---|---|---|
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Jean-François Copé[4] (52) |
Copé announced his candidacy on 14 February 2016 at 20:00 on France 2 – while Nicolas Sarkozy was speaking on TF1 – a few weeks after the release of his book The French Start. After nearly 18 months of media silence, Copé said he was "ready" to return to center stage. Copé was quoted on France 2 as "being very hypocritical to delay unnecessarily", even when a judge's decision on the "sad Bygmalion case" arrived the previous Monday. Copé had been placed under attended witness status and thus escaped indictment. |
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François Fillon[5] (62) |
Fillon announced his candidacy in April 2015 by declaring that he is "a candidate to bring a project of rupture and progress around an ambition to make France the first European power in ten years". He announced in January 2016 that he would leave politics if he fails to win the primary. Fillon has also committed, as has Alain Juppé, to serve only one term if he is elected President in 2017. |
| Hassen Hammou[4] (27) |
Hammou announced his intention to run to L'Express in January 2015. A journalist from Marseille, Hammou interviewed incumbent President François Hollande on TF1 on 6 November 2015. Hammou has stated on his campaign website that his run is not a political stunt & that he is in it for the long run. Hammou was previously a leftist candidate in various locations in the municipal elections of 2014 before joining the UMP in January 2015, explaining that he is an open and pragmatic person. | |
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Alain Juppé[6] (70) |
Juppé has announced his intention to contest the 2016 Republicans (formerly UMP) internal election which will decide who will be the candidate of the right-wing for the 2017 presidential election. The most popular politician in France, he is described by The Daily Telegraph as "a consensual conservative seen as less divisive than Nicolas Sarkozy".[7][8] |
 |
Frédéric Lefebvre[4] (52) |
Lefebvre declared himself a candidate for the Republicans' presidential primary on 20 January 2016. |
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Bruno Le Maire[4][3] (46) |
Le Maire officially declared his candidacy at a public meeting in Vesoul on 23 February 2016. "My decision is simple, strong, unwavering. Yes, I am a candidate for president," he said on stage. Le Maire had earlier left little doubt about his participation in the primary. "If I told you that I was not getting ready for the primary, I would be lying. And I do not like to lie," he had said on RTL 4 in January. In the wake of his candidacy, Bruno Le Maire has also released a book about his vision of France entitled Do Not Resign. He already enjoyed broad support, including that of Michel Barnier and Yves Jégo, even as the UDI had not yet decided on its participation in the primary. |
 |
Hervé Mariton[4] (58) |
On 20 September 2015, Mariton declared himself a candidate in the centre-right's 2016 primary election. On 16 January 2016, he stated his candidacy is mainly being fought against the potential candidacy of Nicolas Sarkozy in the primary, believing that having the former President as the candidate of the centre-right in the 2017 presidential election would promote the re-election of François Hollande. |
 |
Nadine Morano[4] (52) |
On 4 September 2015, she declared her candidacy for the right's 2016 presidential primary. However, she stated that the goal of her campaign is to establish a balance of power with Nicolas Sarkozy, hoping to return to his cabinet. |
| Jean-Frédéric Poisson[4] (52) |
As head of the Christian Democratic Party, he will be their candidate in the centre-right's 2016 primary. | |
Potential candidates
- Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet,[3] Member of the National Assembly for Essonne's 4th constituency since 2012 and from 2002–2007; former Mayor of Longjumeau from 2008–2013; former Minister of Ecology, Sustainable Development, Transport and Housing from 2010–2012
- Jean-Christophe Lagarde,[4] President of the UDI since 2014; Member of the National Assembly for Seine-Saint-Denis since 2002; Mayor of Drancy since 2001
- Nicolas Sarkozy,[3] former President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra from 2007–2012; President of The Republicans since 2015; former President of Union for a Popular Movement from 2014–2015 and 2004–2007; former Minister of the Interior from 2005–2007 and 2002–2004; former President of the General Council of Hauts-de-Seine from 2004–2007; former Minister of Finance from 2004–2004; former Acting President of Rally for the Republic from 1999–1999; former Minister of Communications from 1994–1995; former Minister of the Budget from 1993–1995; former Government Spokesperson from 1993–1995; former Mayor of Neuilly-sur-Seine from 1983–2002
Withdrawn candidates
- Xavier Bertrand,[4] Mayor of Saint-Quentin since 2010; former Minister of Labour, Employment and Health from 2010–2012; former Secretary-General of the UMP from 2008–2010
- Christian Estrosi,[4] President of the Regional Council of Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur since 2015; Mayor of Nice since 2008; former Deputy Minister of Industry from 2009–2010; former Deputy Minister of Overseas France from 2007–2008; former Deputy Minister of Planning of the Territory from 2005–2007
Opinion polls
First Round
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size | |
|
 |
|
.jpg) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fillon UMP/LR |
Juppé UMP/LR |
Kosciusko-Morizet UMP/LR |
Le Maire UMP/LR |
Sarkozy UMP/LR |
Others/Undecided | |||
| Le Parisien/i-Télé-CQFD | 5–6 Jun 2014 | 988 | 13% | 19% | – | – | 28% | 40% |
| Ifop | 13–16 Apr 2015 | 704 | 5% | 33% | – | 12% | 42% | 8% |
| Ifop | 4–9 Jun 2015 | 1,879 | 7% | 42% | – | 13% | 33% | 5% |
| Ipsos | 25–31 Aug 2015 | 519 | 11% | 40% | – | 11% | 34% | 4% |
| Ifop | 3–4 Sep 2015 | 1,079 | 9% | 30% | 3% | – | 21% | 37% |
| Ifop | 25 Sep–9 Oct 2015 | 5,220 | 8% | 37% | 2% | 6% | 37% | 10% |
| BVA/Presse Régionale | 6–15 Oct 2015 | 11,244 | 8% | 31% | 2% | 11% | 38% | 10% |
| Ifop | 9 Oct-16 Nov 2015 | 5,274 | 9% | 35% | 2% | 9% | 34% | 11% |
| Opinion Way | 26 Oct–17 Nov 2015 | 400 | 21% | 29% | – | 10% | 11% | 29% |
| Ifop | 16 Dec 2015–7 Jan 2016 | 5,989 | 12% | 38% | 4% | 12% | 29% | 5% |
| Ifop | 11-22 Jan 2016 | 4,974 | 12% | 41% | 2% | 10% | 30% | 5% |
| Ipsos-Sopra Steria | 22-31 Jan 2016 | 1,333 | 9% | 44% | 2% | 11% | 32% | 2% |
| BVA/Orange et iTélé | 11-12 Feb 2016 | 1,053 | 11% | 47% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 12% |
| Ifop | 1-15 Feb 2016 | 4,967 | 11% | 39% | 3% | 11% | 32% | 7% |
| Elabe/BFMTV | 16 Feb-16 Mar 2016 | 5,001 | 11% | 41% | 4% | 13% | 23% | 8% |
| Odoxa/Le Parisien | 18 Feb-10 Mar 2016 | 4,036 | 9% | 41% | 3% | 16% | 23% | 8% |
| Ifop | 23 Feb-18 Mar 2016 | 8,090 | 8% | 38% | 3% | 16% | 27% | 8% |
| Ipsos/Sopra-Steria | 11-20 Mar 2016 | 20,319 | 8% | 42% | 2.5% | 17% | 26% | 4.5% |
| Ifop | 29 Mar-14 Apr 2016 | 5,775 | 15% | 37% | 3% | 12% | 26% | 7% |
Second Round
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juppé UMP/LR |
Sarkozy UMP/LR |
Undecided | |||
| Ipsos | 25–31 Aug 2015 | 519 | 56% | 44% | – |
| Ifop | 3–4 Sep 2015 | 1,079 | 33% | 54% | 13% |
| Ifop | 25 Sep–9 Oct 2015 | 5,220 | 30% | 54% | 16% |
| BVA/Presse Régionale | 6–15 Oct 2015 | 11,244 | 48% | 52% | – |
| Ifop | 11-22 Jan 2016 | 4,974 | 62% | 38% | – |
| BVA/Orange et iTélé | 11-12 Feb 2016 | 1,053 | 59% | 41% | – |
| Ifop | 1-15 Feb 2016 | 4,967 | 59% | 41% | – |
| Elabe/BFMTV | 16 Feb-16 Mar 2016 | 5,001 | 64% | 36% | – |
| Ifop | 23 Feb-18 Mar 2016 | 8,090 | 62% | 38% | – |
| Ifop | 29 Mar-14 Apr 2016 | 5,775 | 61% | 39% | – |
References
- ↑ Sarkozy UMP model for the primary 2017 – The World
- ↑ Republican primary : Alain Juppe Preferred over Nicolas Sarkozy
- 1 2 3 4 5 Vinocur, Nicholas (11 January 2016). "Big fight for the French Right". Politico Europe. Retrieved 11 January 2016.
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 "Primaire Les Républicains 2016 : résultat favorable à Juppé dans les sondages". L'Internaute/La Rédaction. 26 January 2016. Retrieved 29 January 2016.
- ↑ "Primaire de l'UMP : Fillon sera candidat "quoi qu'il arrive"". Le Monde. May 9, 2013. Retrieved September 8, 2014.
- ↑ Inti Laundaro (August 20, 2014). "Alain Juppé Declares Intention to Seek French Presidency in 2017". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved September 8, 2014.
- ↑ "Ex-PM Juppé announces bid for 2017". France24. Retrieved 27 June 2015.
- ↑ "Marion Maréchal-Le Pen: the new wonder-girl of France's far-right". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 2 January 2016.