Indian general election, 2004

Indian general election, 2004
India
April 20, April 26, May 5 and May 10, 2004

All 543 seats in the Lok Sabha
272 seats were needed for a majority
  First party Second party
 
Leader Sonia Gandhi Atal Bihari Vajpayee
Party INC BJP
Alliance UPA NDA
Leader since 19 March 1998 16 May 1996
Leader's seat Rae Bareli Lucknow
Last election 156 seats, 28.3% 270 seats, 37.1%
Seats won 218 181
Seat change Increase62 Decrease89
Popular vote 138,312,337 128,931,001
Percentage 35.4% 33.3%
Swing Increase7.1% Decrease3.76%

Results of the National and Regional parties.

Prime Minister before election

Atal Bihari Vajpayee
NDA

Prime Minister-designate

Manmohan Singh
UPA

Legislative elections were held in India in four phases between April 20 and May 10, 2004. Over 670 million people were eligible to vote, electing 543 members of the 14th Lok Sabha. The Lok Sabha, or "House of the People," is the directly elected lower house of the Parliament of India.

On May 13, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its alliance National Democratic Alliance conceded defeat. The Indian National Congress, which had governed India for all but five years from independence until 1996, returned to power after a record eight years out of office. It was able to put together a comfortable majority of more than 335 members out of 543 with the help of its allies. The 335 members included both the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance, the governing coalition formed after the election, as well as external support from the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Samajwadi Party (SP), Kerala Congress (KC) and the Left Front. (External support is support from parties that are not part of the governing coalition).

Congress President Sonia Gandhi surprised observers by declining to become the new prime minister, instead asking former Finance Minister Manmohan Singh, a respected economist, to head the new government. Singh had previously served in the Congress government of Prime Minister Narasimha Rao in the early 1990s, where he was seen as one of the architects of India's first economic liberalisation plan, which staved off an impending national monetary crisis. Despite the fact that Singh had never won a Lok Sabha seat, his considerable goodwill and Sonia Gandhi's nomination won him the support of the UPA allies and the Left Front.

Seven states also held assembly elections to elect state governments along with the parliamentary elections.

Organisation

The election dates for the parliamentary elections were:


Counting began simultaneously on 13 May. Over 370 million of the 675 million eligible citizens voted, with election violence claiming 48 lives, less than half the number killed during the 1999 election. The Indian elections were held in phases in order to maintain law and order. A few states considered sensitive areas required deployment of the armed forces. The average enrollment of voters in each constituency is 1.2 million, although the largest constituency has 3.1 million.

The Election Commission of India is responsible for deciding the dates and conducting elections according to constitutional provisions. The Election Commission employed more than a million electronic voting machines for these elections.

According to the magazine India Today, 115.62 billion rupees (approx US$2.6 billion) were expected to have been spent in campaigning for the elections by all political parties combined. Most of the money was spent on the people involved in the election. The Election Commission limited poll expenses to Rs. 2.5 million ($57,000 approx.) per constituency. Thus, the actual spending is expected to have been approximately 10 times the limit. About 6.5 billion rupees (approx. $150 million) are estimated to have been spent on mobilising 150,000 vehicles. About a billion rupees are estimated to have been spent on helicopters and aircraft.

Political background

Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had recommended premature dissolution of the 13th Lok Sabha (in accordance with a provision of the Constitution) to pave the way for early elections apparently in view of the recent good showing of the BJP in the Assembly elections in four states. The two "major parties" in India are the BJP (led by Vajpayee) and the Congress (led by Sonia Gandhi).

The Chief Election Commissioner who conducted the 2004 general elections in India was T.S.Krishnamurthy

Pre-poll alliances

In these elections, compared to all the Lok Sabha elections of the 1990s, the battle was more of a head-to-head contest in the sense that there was no viable third front alternative. Largely the contest was between BJP and its allies on one hand and Congress and its allies on the other. The situation did, however, show large regional differences.

The BJP fought the elections as part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), although some of its seat-sharing agreements were made with strong regional parties outside of the NDA such as Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in Tamil Nadu.

Ahead of the elections there were attempts to form a Congress-led national level joint opposition front. In the end, an agreement could not be reached, but on regional level alliances between Congress and regional parties were made in several states. This was the first time that Congress contested with that type of alliances in a parliamentary election.

The left parties, most notably the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Communist Party of India, contested on their own in their strongholds West Bengal, Tripura and Kerala, confronting both Congress and NDA forces. In several other states, such as Punjab and Andhra Pradesh, they took part in seat sharings with Congress. In Tamil Nadu they were part of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led Democratic Progressive Alliance.

Two parties refused to go along with either Congress or BJP, Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party. Both are based in Uttar Pradesh, the largest state of India. Congress made several attempts to form alliances with them, but in vain. Many believed that they would become the 'spoilers' that would rob Congress of an electoral victory. The result was a four-cornered contest in UP, which didn't really hurt or benefit Congress or BJP significantly.

Forecast and campaigns

Most analysts believed the NDA would win the elections; this assessment was also supported by opinion polls. The economy had shown steady growth in the last few months and the disinvestment of government owned production units (a continuation of India's liberalisation policies initiated in the early 1990s) had been on track. The Foreign Exchange Reserves of India stood at more than US$100 billion (7th largest in the world and a record for India). The service sector had also generated a lot of jobs. The party was supposed to have been riding on a wave of the so-called "feel good factor", typified by its promotional campaign "India Shining".

In the past, BJP has largely been seen as a hard-line Hindu party with close ties with the Hindu organisation the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). Over the years, the party has slightly distanced itself from its Hindutva policies, a change that is being questioned after the party's poor showing in the elections. These elections were marked by the campaign's emphasis on economic gains. From the last few elections, BJP had realised that its voter base had reached a ceiling and had concentrated on pre-poll rather than post-poll alliances. The foreign origin of Sonia Gandhi also constituted part of the NDA's campaign.

Results

Support for formation of UPA-led Government

Political Parties/Alliances supporting the government
UPA (218)
Left Front (59)
Samajwadi Party (36)
Bahujan Samaj Party (19)
Kerala Congress (1)
Indian Federal Democratic Party (1)
Jammu and Kashmir People's Democratic Party (1)
Total: 335 votes (61.7%)

Results by states and territories

States

States Party Seats won % of Votes Alliance
Andhra Pradesh Indian National Congress 29 41.56 United Progressive Alliance
Telugu Desam Party 5 33.12 National Democratic Alliance
Telangana Rashtra Samithi 5 6.83 United Progressive Alliance
Communist Party of India 1 1.34 Left Front
Communist Party of India (Marxist) 1 1.04 Left Front
Bharatiya Janata Party 0 8.41 National Democratic Alliance
Others 1 7.7 None
Arunachal Pradesh Bharatiya Janata Party 2 53.85 National Democratic Alliance
Arunachal Congress 0 19.88 INC affiliated parties
Independent 0 12.14 United Progressive Alliance
Indian National Congress 0 9.96 United Progressive Alliance
Others 0 4.16 None
Assam Indian National Congress 9 35.07 United Progressive Alliance
Bharatiya Janata Party 2 22.94 National Democratic Alliance
Asom Gana Parishad 2 19.95 None
Independent 1 13.41 None
Others 0 8.63 None
Bihar Rashtriya Janata Dal 22 30.67 United Progressive Alliance
Janata Dal (United) 6 22.36 National Democratic Alliance
Bharatiya Janata Party 5 14.57 National Democratic Alliance
Lok Janshakti Party 4 8.19 United Progressive Alliance
Indian National Congress 3 4.49 United Progressive Alliance
Others 0 17.92 None
Chhattisgarh Bharatiya Janata Party 10 47.78 National Democratic Alliance
Indian National Congress 1 40.16 United Progressive Alliance
Bahujan Samaj Party 0 4.54 None
Independent 0 3.86 None
Others 0 3.66 None
Goa Bharatiya Janata Party 1 46.83 National Democratic Alliance
Indian National Congress 1 29.76 United Progressive Alliance
National Congress Party 0 16.04 United Progressive Alliance
Communist Party of India 0 2.17 Left Front
Others 0 5.20 None
Gujarat Bharatiya Janata Party 14 47.37 National Democratic Alliance
Indian National Congress 12 43.86 United Progressive Alliance
Independent 0 3.45 None
Bahujan Samaj Party 0 1.48 None
Others 0 3.84 None
Haryana Indian National Congress 9 42.13 United Progressive Alliance
Bharatiya Janata Party 1 17.21 National Democratic Alliance
Indian National Lok Dal 0 22.43 None
Haryana Vikas Party 0 6.25 None
Others 0 11.98 None
Himachal Pradesh Indian National Congress 3 51.81 United Progressive Alliance
Bharatiya Janata Party 1 44.25 National Democratic Alliance
Bahujan Samaj Party 0 1.74 None
Independent 0 1.66 None
Jammu & Kashmir Indian National Congress 2 27.83 United Progressive Alliance
Jammu & Kashmir National Conference 2 22.02 None
Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers Party 1 11.94 None
Bharatiya Janata Party 0 23.04 National Democratic Alliance
Others 1 15.17 None
Jharkhand Indian National Congress 6 21.44 United Progressive Alliance
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha 4 16.28 United Progressive Alliance
Rashtriya Janata Dal 2 n/a United Progressive Alliance
Bharatiya Janata Party 1 33.01 National Democratic Alliance
Communist Party of India 1 n/a Left Front
Independent 0 6.89 None
Karnataka Bharatiya Janata Party 18 34.77 National Democratic Alliance
Indian National Congress 8 36.82 United Progressive Alliance
Janata Dal (Secular) 2 20.45 None
Independent 0 2.34 None
Others 0 5.62 None
Kerala Communist Party of India (Marxist) 12 31.52 Left Front
Communist Party of India 3 7.89 Left Front
Indian Union Muslim League 1 4.86 United Progressive Alliance
Indian National Congress 0 32.13 United Progressive Alliance
Bharatiya Janata Party 0 10.38 National Democratic Alliance
Others 4 13.22 None
Madhya Pradesh Bharatiya Janata Party 25 48.13 National Democratic Alliance
Indian National Congress 4 34.07 United Progressive Alliance
Bahujan Samaj Party 0 4.75 None
Independent 0 4.02 None
Others 0 9.03 None
Maharashtra Indian National Congress 13 23.77 United Progressive Alliance
Bharatiya Janata Party 13 22.61 National Democratic Alliance
Shiv Sena 12 20.11 National Democratic Alliance
Nationalist Congress Party 9 18.31 United Progressive Alliance
Others 1 15.20 United Progressive Alliance
Manipur Independent 1 22.46 None
Indian National Congress 1 14.88 United Progressive Alliance
Bharatiya Janata Party 0 20.65 National Democratic Alliance
Nationalist Congress Party 0 10.37 United Progressive Alliance
Others 0 31.64 None
Meghalaya Indian National Congress 1 45.55 United Progressive Alliance
All India Trinamool Congress 1 28.27 National Democratic Alliance
Independent (politician) 0 17.55 None
Bharatiya Janata Party 0 8.63 National Democratic Alliance
Mizoram Mizo National Front 1 52.46 None
Independent 0 45.67 None
Ephraim Union 0 1.87 None
Nagaland Nagaland People's Front 1 73.12 None
Indian National Congress 0 25.78 United Progressive Alliance
Independent 0 0.56 None
Janata Dal (Secular) 0 0.54 None
Orissa Biju Janata Dal 11 30.02 National Democratic Alliance
Bharatiya Janata Party 7 19.30 National Democratic Alliance
Indian National Congress 2 40.43 United Progressive Alliance
Independent 0 4.50 None
Others 1 5.75 United Progressive Alliance
Punjab Shiromani Akali Dal 8 34.28 National Democratic Alliance
Bharatiya Janata Party 3 10.48 National Democratic Alliance
Indian National Congress 2 34.17 United Progressive Alliance
Bahujan Samaj Party 0 7.67 None
Others 0 13.40 None
Rajasthan Bharatiya Janata Party 21 49.01 National Democratic Alliance
Indian National Congress 4 41.42 United Progressive Alliance
Bahujan Samaj Party 0 3.16 None
Independent 0 2.72 None
Others 0 3.69 None
Sikkim Sikkim Democratic Front 1 69.84 None
Indian National Congress 0 27.43 United Progressive Alliance
Sikkim Sangram Parishad 0 1.46 None
Sikkim Himali Rajya Parishad 0 1.26 None
Tamil Nadu Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 16 24.60 United Progressive Alliance
Indian National Congress 10 14.40 United Progressive Alliance
Pattali Makkal Katchi 5 6.71 United Progressive Alliance
Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 4 5.85 United Progressive Alliance
Communist Party of India 2 2.97 Left Front
Communist Party of India (Marxist) 2 2.87 Left Front
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 0 29.77 National Democratic Alliance
Others 0 12.83 National Democratic Alliance (BJP)
Tripura Communist Party of India (Marxist) 2 68.80 Left Front
Indian National Congress 0 14.28 United Progressive Alliance
Bharatiya Janata Party 0 7.82 National Democratic Alliance
All India Trinamool Congress 0 5.09 National Democratic Alliance
Uttar Pradesh Samajwadi Party 35 26.74 None
Bahujan Samaj Party 19 24.67 None
Bharatiya Janata Party 10 22.17 National Democratic Alliance
Indian National Congress 9 12.04 United Progressive Alliance
Others 7 14.38 National Democratic Alliance (1)
Uttarakhand Bharatiya Janata Party 3 40.98 National Democratic Alliance
Indian National Congress 1 38.31 United Progressive Alliance
Samajwadi Party 1 7.93 None
Bahujan Samaj Party 0 6.77 None
Others 0 6.01 None
West Bengal Communist Party of India (Marxist) 26 38.57 Left Front
Indian National Congress 6 14.56 United Progressive Alliance
Communist Party of India 3 4.01 Left Front
All India Forward Bloc 3 3.66 Left Front
Revolutionary Socialist Party 3 4.48 Left Front
All India Trinamool Congress 1 21.04 National Democratic Alliance
Bharatiya Janata Party 0 8.06 National Democratic Alliance
Others 0 5.62 None

Territories

Territories Party Seats won % of Votes Alliance
Andaman & Nicobar Islands Indian National Congress 1 55.77 United Progressive Alliance
Bharatiya Janata Party 0 35.95 National Democratic Alliance
Communist Party of India (Marxist) 0 2.71 Left Front
Independent 0 1.72 None
Others 0 3.85 None
Chandigarh Indian National Congress 1 52.06 United Progressive Alliance
Bharatiya Janata Party 0 35.22 National Democratic Alliance
Indian National Lok Dal 0 6.61 None
Independent 0 3.42 None
Others 0 2.69 None
National Capital Territory of Delhi Indian National Congress 6 54.81 United Progressive Alliance
Bharatiya Janata Party 1 40.67 National Democratic Alliance
Bahujan Samaj Party 0 2.48 None
Independent 0 1.27 None
Lakshadweep Janata Dal (United) 1 49.02 National Democratic Alliance
Indian National Congress 0 48.79 United Progressive Alliance
Janata Party 0 1.47 None
Samajwadi Party 0 0.72 None

Results by Parties

For a complete list of parties, see Indian general election full results, 2004.
Party Name States contested Seats contested Seats won No. of Votes % of Votes % in Seats contested Forfeited in seats
Indian National Congress 33 400 145 103,408,949 26.53% 34.43% 82
Bharatiya Janata Party 31 364 138 86,371,561 22.16% 34.39% 57
Communist Party of India (Marxist) 19 69 43 22,070,614 5.66% 42.31% 15
Bahujan Samaj Party 25 435 19 20,765,229 5.33% 6.66% 358
Samajwadi Party 23 237 36 16,824,072 4.32% 10.26% 169
Telugu Desam Party 1 33 5 11,844,811 3.04% 42.75% 0
Rashtriya Janata Dal 6 42 24 9,384,147 2.41% 31.27% 14
Janata Dal (United) 16 73 8 9,144,963 2.35% 17.73% 44
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 1 33 0 8,547,014 2.19% 35.59% 0
Nationalist Trinamool Congress 5 33 2 8,071,867 2.07% 29.97% 7
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 1 16 16 7,064,393 1.81% 58.24% 0
Shiv Sena 14 56 12 7,056,255 1.81% 17.90% 34
Nationalist Congress Party 11 32 9 7,023,175 1.80% 33.98% 10
Janata Dal (Secular) 12 43 3 5,732,296 1.47% 15.67% 24
Communist Party of India 15 34 10 5,484,111 1.41% 23.70% 19
Biju Janata Dal 1 12 11 5,082,849 1.30% 51.15% 0
Shiromani Akali Dal 1 10 8 3,506,681 0.90% 43.42% 0
Lok Jan Shakti Party 12 40 4 2,771,427 0.71% 10.02% 32
Rashtriya Lok Dal 11 32 3 2,463,607 0.63% 11.08% 23
Telangana Rashtra Samithi 1 8 5 2,441,405 0.63% 13.19% 0
Pattali Makkal Katchi 2 6 6 2,169,020 0.56% 51.66% 0
Asom Gana Parishad 1 12 2 2,069,600 0.53% 23.53% 4
Indian National Lok Dal 4 20 0 1,936,703 0.50% 12.60% 14
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha 4 9 5 1,846,843 0.47% 28.43% 3
Revolutionary Socialist Party 3 6 3 1,689,794 0.43% 33.50% 2
Marumaralarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 1 4 4 1,679,870 0.43% 58.23% 0
All India Forward Bloc 5 10 3 1,365,055 0.35% 18.81% 7
Total 35 543 543 389779784 100% - 4218

Results by alliances

Votes and seats of the major parties are compared with those won in the 1999 election

 Summary of the 20/26 April and 5/10 May Lok Sabha of India election results
Alliance Votes % Change Seats Change Party Votes % Change Seats Change
  United Progressive Alliance 138,312,337 35.4 +1.9 218 +83   Indian National Congress 103,405,272 26.7 -1.6 145 +32
  Rashtriya Janata Dal (National People's Party) 8,613,302 2.2 -0.5 21 +12
  Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (Dravidian Progress Federation) 7,064,393 1.8 +0.1 16 +4
  Nationalist Congress Party 6,915,740 1.8 -0.5 9 +1
  Lok Jan Shakti Party (People's Power Party) 2,771,427 0.6 ? 4 ?
  Telangana Rashtra Samithi (Telangana State Front) 2,441,405 0.6 ? 2 ?
  Pattali Makkal Katchi (Labour Party) 2,169,020 0.5 -0.1 6 +1
  Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (Jharkhand Liberation Front) 1,846,843 0.5 - 5 -
  Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (Progressive Dravidian Renaissance Organisation) 1,679,870 0.4 0.0 4 -
  Indian Union Muslim League 770,098 0.2 0.0 1 +1
  Republican Party of India (Athvale) 367,510 0.1 ? 1 ?
  Jammu and Kashmir People's Democratic Party 267,457 0.0 - 1 -
  National Democratic Alliance 128,931,001 33.3 -3.8 181 -89   Bharatiya Janata Party (Indian People's Party) 85,866,593 22.2 -1.5 138 -44
  Janata Dal (United) (People's Party (United)) 9,924,209 2.6 -0.5 8 -11
  All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (All India Annadurai Progressive Dravidian Organisation) 8,547,014 2.2 ? 0 ?
  Nationalist Trinamool Congress 8,047,771 2.1 -0.5 2 -6
  Shiv Sena (Army of Shivaji) 7,056,075 1.8 +0.2 12 -3
  Biju Janata Dal (Biju People's Party) 5,084,428 1.3 +0.1 11 +1
  Shiromani Akali Dal (Akali Religious Party) 3,506,681 0.9 +0.2 8 +6
  Nagaland People's Front 715,366 0.2 - 1 -
  Mizo National Front 182,864 0.0 - 1 -
  Left Front 30,578,698 7.7 -0.9 59 +17   Communist Party of India (Marxist) 22,061,677 5.7 +0.3 43 +11
  Communist Party of India 5,434,738 1.4 -0.1 10 +6
  Revolutionary Socialist Party 1,717,228 0.4 0.0 3 -
  All India Forward Bloc 1,365,055 0.2 ? 3 ?
  Other   Bahujan Samaj Party (Majority Society Party) 20,713,468 5.3 +1.1 19 +5
  Samajwadi Party (Socialist Party) 16,645,356 4.3 +0.5 36 +10
  Telugu Desam Party (Party of the Telugu People) 11,844,811 3.0 -0.6 5 -24
  Janata Dal (Secular) (People's Party (Secular)) 5,732,296 1.5 +0.6 3 +2
  Rashtriya Lok Dal (National People's Party) 2,463,607 0.6 ? 3 ?
  Asom Gana Parishad (Assam People's Association) 2,069,610 0.5 - 2 -
  Jammu and Kashmir National Conference 493,067 0.1 0.0 2 -2
  All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (All India Council of United Muslims) 378,854 0.1 ? 1 ?
  Kerala Congress 353,529 0.1 0.0 1 -
  Sikkim Democratic Front 153,409 0.0 0.0 1 -
  National Loktantrik Party (National Democratic Party) 367,049 0.1 ? 1 -
  Samajwadi Janata Party (Rashtriya) (Socialist People's Party (National)) 337,386 0.1 ? 1 -
  Indian Federal Democratic Party 256,411 0.1 ? 1 -
  Bharatiya Navshakti Party (Indian New Force Party) 171,080 0.1 ? 1 -
    Independents - - - 5 -
Total   387,453,223 - - 543 -
Source: Election Commission of India[1]

Elected MPs

See separate article, List of Members of the 14th Lok Sabha

Results by post-alliance/allies

There are a maximum of 545 members of Parliament: 543 elected, and two may be nominated by the President to represent the Anglo-Indian community. Repolling was ordered in four constituencies due to irregularities. The results in the remaining constituencies were as follows (parties recognised by the Election Commission as national parties are in italics, and regional or state parties in Roman font):

Analysis

Though pre-poll predictions were for an overwhelming majority for the BJP, the exit polls (immediately after the elections and before the counting began) predicted a hung parliament. However, even the exit polls could only indicate the general trend and nowhere close to the final figures. There is also the general perception that as soon as the BJP started realising that events might not proceed entirely in its favour, it changed the focus of its campaign from India Shining to issues of stability. The Congress, who was regarded as "old-fashioned" by the ruling BJP, was largely backed by poor, rural, lower-caste and minority voters that did not participate in the economic boom of previous years that created a large wealthy middle class and thus achieved its overwhelming victory. Another reason which was not mentioned much but still spoken of in the public was that BJP supporters are working-class people, and the poll surveys predicted BJP win, and therefore they did not reach the ballot. Whereas the Congress support base, the weaker sections of the society, don't miss voting at all.

Another more prominent reason came from checking the RSS contribution, RSS cadres reached Vajpayee over the killing of 400 RSS workers in Assam, and Vajpayee disappointed them. RSS backed off, and results were evident.

Other possible reasons that have been given for the NDA defeat are:

Impact

The rout of the ruling parties in the states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala in the general elections led to calls for the dissolution of the governments of these states.

The stock market (Bombay Stock Exchange) fell in the week prior to the announcement of the results due to fears of an unstable coalition. As soon as counting began, however, it became clear that the Congress coalition was headed for a sizeable lead over the NDA and the market surged, only to crash the following day when the left parties, whose support would be required for government formation, announced that it was their intention to do away with the disinvestment ministry. Following this, Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister (in office 2004-14) and the prime architect of the economic liberalisation of the early 1990s, hurried to reassure investors that the new government would strive to create a business-friendly climate.

Events

See also

Further reading

References

  1. "STATISTICAL REPORT ON GENERAL ELECTIONS, 2004 TO THE 14TH LOK SABHA" (PDF). ELECTION COMMISSION OF INDIA. 13 May 2004.

External links

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