Assam Legislative Assembly election, 2016

Assam Legislative Assembly election, 2016
India
All 126 seats in the Legislature of Assam
64 seats needed for a majority
Turnout 84.72%
  Majority party Minority party Third party
 
Leader Tarun Gogoi Sarbananda Sonowal Badruddin Ajmal
Party INC BJP AIUDF
Alliance UPA NDA
Leader since 1976 2011 2005
Leader's seat Titabar Majuli (ST) South Salmara
Last election 78 seats, 22.61% 5 seats, 16.46% 18 seats
Chief Minister before election

Tarun Gogoi
Congress

 Elected Chief Minister

TBD

The legislative assembly election were held in two phases on April 4 and 11 2016 to elect members of the 126 constituencies in Assam.[1] The overall polling percentage in Assam elections of 2016 was 84.72%, which is highest in the history of Assam.[2][3] The turnout saw an increase from the 2011 Assembly election figure, which was 75%.[4]

The counting of votes and results are scheduled for 19 May 2016.

Assam

Background

The tenure of Assam assembly ends in June 5, 2016.[5] The full bench of the Election commission headed by Syed Nasim Ahmad Zaidi visited Assam on 21 December 2015.[6] Voter-verified paper audit trail will be introduced in 10 constituencies (around 2400 polling booths) in Assam assembly polls.[7] These includes all four assembly constituencies in Kamrup Metro district-Dispur, Jalukbari, Gauhati East and Gauhati West.[8] 250 polling stations will be made model polling stations.[9]

Electoral process

National Register of Citizens of India (NRC) is being updated in Assam and the process is to be completed by 1 January 2016. The process is monitored by Supreme Court of India.[10][11] By September 2015, The first phase of updating the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam was completed, with over 66.90 lakh households submitting forms linking themselves to either the NRC of 1951 or any of the electoral rolls prior to 24 March 1971. It will be followed by task of verifying the applications. The whole exercise is meant for detection, detention and deportation of the illegal migrants who crossed over to Assam from Bangladesh on or after March 25, 1971.[12] Since 1985, Foreigners’ Tribunals have declared over 38,000 persons in Assam as illegal migrants. Nearly 1.5 lakh names in Assam’s electoral rolls carry the prefix “D” — for “Doubtful” citizenship status.[13] Supreme Court has directed Assam Government to complete upgrading of draft as well as the final NRC by March 1, 2016.[14][15] In May 2015, the historic India Bangladesh land swap deal was signed.[16] It is alleged that this land swap is just a political stunt by BJP as BJP was always against the land swap; whether it was time of Indira Gandhi ( that time Jana Sangha was opposing the proposal, BJP emerged from Jana Sangha) or it was during transfer of 3 bhigha corridor to Bangladesh by Ex-PM Manmohan Singh in 2011.

According to the draft electoral rolls published in October 2015, the total number of voters in Assam stand at 1.92 crore. Election Commission has said that final electoral rolls will be published by 11 January 2016. In November 2015, Union Minister and Lakhimpur MP Sarbananda Sonowal was made Assam BJP chief and he will head election committee.[17] Sonowal labelled the situation of ‘illegal immigration’ from Bangladesh “very alarming.[18] Sonowal was pioneer in getting the controversial IMDT Act struck down by Supreme court of India in December 2006.[19] Himanta Biswa Sarma, a state Congress heavyweight joined BJP.[20] BJP has aimed for ‘Mission 84’ in Assam.[21][22] BJP led in 69 assembly constituencies in the Lok Sabha elections 2014 by winning 7 Lok Sabha seats in Assam.[23] For the first time, the BJP had contested the Bodoland Territorial Council elections, and won a seat.[24]

Other issues

In September 2015, the central government decided to allow minority refugees from Bangladesh and Pakistan to stay in India even after the expiry of their visas on humanitarian grounds.[25] But this matter was never exposed by BJP during Assam Election campaign instead they keep accusing INC and AIUDF for Bangladeshi immigrant problem in Assam. AIMIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi said that his party will not fight Assam elections to prevent split in Muslim votes.[26]

Religion data

According to the 2011 census, 61.5% were Hindus, 34.22% were Muslims.[27][28] Christian minorities (3.7%) are found among Scheduled Tribe population.[29] Scheduled Tribe population in Assam is around 13% in which Bodos account for 40%.[30]

Out of 32 districts of Assam, 9 are Muslim majority according to the 2011 census of India.[31] The districts are Dhubri, Goalpara, Barpeta, Morigaon, Nagaon, Karimganj, Hailakandi, Darrang and Bongaigaon.[32][33][34] Bodos have a population share of 12% -it include all sections in the greater Kachari group.[35] The share of the Assamese speakers in Assam was 48.80% in 2001 census. Assamese-speaking Muslims, also known as Khilonjia Muslims, who include groups such as Goria and Moria are estimated to be around 40 lakhs in population out of total 1 crore Muslims in Assam.[36]

Religion in Assam (2011)[27]

  Hinduism (61.46%)
  Islam (34.22%)
  Christianity (3.73%)
  Buddhism (0.17%)
  Jainism (0.08%)
  Sikhism (0.06%)
  Other or not religious (0.3%)

Campaign

In November 2015, BJP President Amit Shah held a BJP party workers’ rally in Dibrugarh in Upper Assam Division.[37] In December 2015, Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi visited Assam where he accused RSS workers of not letting him enter temple in Barpeta disctrict, Barpeta Satra.[38] RSS denied the charge. Rahul Gandhi announced that Tarun Gogoi will be chief minister candidate of Congress.[39] There is a growing demand for giving scheduled tribe(ST) status to six communities — Tai Ahoms, Koch Rajbongshis, Moran, Motok, Sootea and 36 tea tribes (the descendants of tea garden workers settled by British in the state from Chotanagpur plateau in mid 19th century).[40][41] NDA government may bring an ordinance for the ST status before elections,which has been raised by ULFA initially.[42]

In November 2015, nine Congress MLAs joined BJP.[43] Assam Governor PB Acharya made a controversial statement that Hindustan is only for Hindus.[44] Ex-Ulfa rebels announced to contest Assam polls.[45] On 26 December 2015, BJP's Assam unit launched its ambitious 'Assam Nirman' initiative, seeking public opinion to prepare a vision document for making Assam developed.[46]

On 28 December 2015, Smriti Irani visited Barak Valley in Assam and accused Tarun Gogoi government for not doing enough for women safety.[47][48] Tarun Gogoi accused the NDA government of adopting dillydally tactics on granting citizenship to 'persecuted' refugees from Bangladesh.[49] Gogoi said external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj was busy meeting businessmen in Assam during her visit instead of talking about the problems and issues confronting the state like the declared illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, reports of China constructing dams in the upper reaches of Brahmaputra and North-eastern insurgents in Myanmar.[50]

In January 2016, the Gogoi government announced rice prices at Rs 2 per kilogramme and to build all-religion bhawans.[51][52] Assam Congress President rule out any alliance with AIUDF, AGP.[53][54] Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh visited Assam on 3 January 2016 and said the fencing along the Indo-Bangladesh border will be completed by December 2016.[55][56] A delegation of the All Assam Students Union (AASU) also met Rajnath Singh and visited the border areas. Rajnath Singh visited Dhubri district and expressed dissatisfaction with the fencing work there. He said that a feasibility study and two pilot projects are underway in Dhubri sector of the riverine border.[57] Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi said that 97.32% of the border fencing work in Karimganj and Dhubri was complete and asked the Central Government to take up a pilot project involving technological solution to plug the riverine border.[58][59]

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a rally in Kokrajhar on 19 January 2016, after his visit to Sikkim on 18 January 2016.[60] Modi formally announced the alliance of BPF with BJP in Assam.[61]

On 28 January, the BJP Parliamentary Board announced Sarbananda Sonowal as BJP Chief Ministerial candidate of Assam.[62] Union minister of state for commerce and industry Nirmala Sitharaman accused chief minister Tarun Gogoi with spreading misinformation on the suspension of the North East Industrial and Investment Promotion Policy (NEIIPP), 2007.[63] Ethnic groups of Assam sought ULFA pro-talks faction headed by founding general secretary Anup Chetia help to get ST tag.[64][65]

Narendra Modi arrived on 5 February to first attend the 85th conference of the Srimanta Sankaradeva Sangha at the erstwhile Ahom capital of Sivasagar, and then he addressd a rally at Moran in Dibrugarh district in Upper Assam.[66][67][68] Modi dedicated the Assam gas cracker project at Dibrugarh to the nation.[69] Modi then inaugurated the 2016 South Asian Games in Guwahati on 5 February.[70]

On 2 March, the BJP announced its alliance with Asom Gana Parishad (AGP).[71] AGP was given 24 seats.[72] CM Tarun Gogoi announced a special package of Rs 3,000 cr for Barak Valley.[73] Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi visited Assam for two days on 4 and 5 March 2016 and addressed public meetings in Silchar and Nagaon.[74] On 6 March 2016, Congress tied up with odo heartland-based United People’s Party.[75]

On 10 March, BJP declared candidates for the first phase of Assam elections.[76] Out of 126 Assembly constituencies, BJP would contest in 84 constituencies and leave 42 others to its four allies - AGP (24), BPF (16), Rabha Jatiya Aikya Manch (1) and Tiwa Jatiya Aikya Manch (1). BJP gives tickets to two ex-millitants including Bhaskar Sarma( accused of secret killings). On 16 March 2016, Sarbananda Sonowal filed his nomination for Majuli (ST) assembly seat.[77][78] Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a rally in Majuli on 23 March 2016.[79] The Congress released its first list of 65 candidates on March 15, 2016.[80] The second list of 57 candidates was announced on March 21, 2016.[81][82] Congress will contest on 122 seats while its ally United People’s Party will contest on remaining 4 seats.[83] BJP’s Himanta Biswa Sarma files nomination papers from Jalukbari on 21 March 2016.[84] AIUDF will contest around 76 seats while its allies in Assam - RJD and JD(U) will contest on 12 seats each.[85] AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal will contest from South Salmara seat, while CM Tarun Gogoi is contesting from Titabar seeat against BJP MP Kamakhya Prasad Tasa.[86][87]

Schedule

The dates of the election were announced on 4 March 2016. Previous assembly polls, all 140 ACs went to polls on the same day.[88]

On 12 February 2016, Election Commission of India announced that 10 assembly constituencies in Assam will have 2300 Voter-verified paper audit trail (VVPAT) machines attached along with EVMs.[89]

The polling will be held in two phases. The first phase on 4 April 2016 and the second phase on 11 April 2016. The counting is scheduled on 19 May 2016 for both the phases.[90]

Schedule of polling and results[90]
Phase 1 4 April 2016
Phase 2 11 April 2016
Counting of votes and result 19 May 2016
Assembly constituencies of Assam having VVPAT facility with EVMs[90]
Silchar Dhubri Bongaigaon
Goalpara East Jalukbari Dispur
Gauhati East Guahati West Tezpur
Jorhat

Opinion polls

When conducted Ref Polling organisation/Agency Sample size
INC BJP+ AIUDF Other
April 2016 [91] India TV-C Voter NA 53
55
12
6
March 2016 [92] Nielsen NA 36
78
10
2
March 2016 [93] AVC NA 40
48-54
25
0
January 2016 [94][95][96] India TV-C-Voter NA 44
57
19
6

Voting

The overall polling percentage in Assam elections of 2016 was 84.72%.[97] 87.03% polling was recorded in second phase in assam, which is highest in Assam.[98][99] One died in the police firing in Assam.[100] 189 EVMs were replaced in final phase due to technical snag.[101] BJP is hoping that high vote turnout is in their favour, but many political journalists believe that this may go in favor of congress as voting turnout was more than 90% in areas of Lower Assam where fight is believed to be between congress and AIUDF. A total of 1,064 candidates contested the Assam elections- 122 are from the Congress, 89 from the BJP, 74 from the AIUDF, 30 from AGP, 13 from the BPF, 15 from CPI, 19 from CPM, 205 others and 497 Independents. The total number of polling stations in Assam was 24,890, spread across 50 election districts in the state.

Result

Pos Flag Party Alliance Contested Won Swing Votes Vote Swing
1 Indian National Congress UPA 122
2 United People’s Party UPA 4
3 Bharatiya Janata Party NDA 87
4 Asom Gana Parishad NDA 30
5 Bodoland People's Front NDA 13
6 Rabha Jatiya Aikya Manch NDA 1
7 Tiwa Jatiya Aikya Manch NDA 1
8 All India United Democratic Front G.A74
9 Rashtriya Janata DalG.A 12
10 Janata Dal (United)G.A 12
11 All India Trinamool Congress
12 Communist Party of India (Marxist) Left 19
13 Communist Party of India Left 15
14 Independents 497
Total 126

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Assembly polls in Assam: Why it’s the most interesting electoral battle of 2016".
  2. ↑ "Heavy polling points to polarisation".
  3. ↑ "More than 90 per cent turnouts mark aggressive Muslim voting in Assam".
  4. ↑ "Over 78 percent votes cast in Assam polls first phase". ABP Live. 4 April 2016.
  5. ↑ "Upcoming Elections in India". Retrieved 2015-11-09.
  6. ↑ "Panel silent on Assam dates- Final electoral rolls on January 11: CEC".
  7. ↑ "Assam Chief Electoral Officer meets political parties on poll preparedness". Economic Times.
  8. ↑ "VVPAT to be introduced in 10 constituencies in Assam assembly polls". Jagranjosh.com.
  9. ↑ "Election Commission asks SPs to map vulnerable places for Assam polls". Economic Times.
  10. ↑ "National Register of Citizens in Assam: Issue of illegal foreigners continues to be a major political one".
  11. ↑ "Assam: Overhaul of National Register of Citizens sparks controversy".
  12. ↑ "The starkness of being nowhere".
  13. ↑ "In Assam, an ongoing effort to detect illegal Bangladeshi migrants". The Indian Express. 17 June 2015.
  14. ↑ "Migrants Issue: SC Asks Assam Govt to Upgrade NRC by March 1". http://www.outlookindia.com/. External link in |work= (help)
  15. ↑ IANS (1 December 2015). "Complete NRC by March 1: SC to Assam government".
  16. ↑ "Bangladesh, India in historic land swap after nearly 4 decades". Hindustan Times.
  17. ↑ "Regional players eye key role".
  18. ↑ "Not against Muslims, only illegal migrants: Sarbananda Sonowal".
  19. ↑ "Sarbananda Sonowal vs Union Of India on 5 December, 2006".
  20. ↑ "BJP gets battle ready in Assam after Bihar loss".
  21. ↑ "In fact: How possible is the BJP’s ‘Mission 84’ in Assam next year?". The Indian Express. 2 November 2015.
  22. ↑ "BJP gears up for Assam election, unit gets 28 lakh new members".
  23. ↑ "Assam: can BJP defy history?".
  24. ↑ "Bodoland drubbing forces Cong, BJP to rethink poll plan". The Times of India.
  25. ↑ "India to allow minorities from Pakistan, Bangladesh to stay without papers". The Indian Express. 7 September 2015.
  26. ↑ "Asaduddin Owaisi skips Assam poll to prevent Muslim vote split". Hindustan Times.
  27. 1 2 "Population by religion community - 2011". Census of India, 2011. The Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India. Archived from the original on 25 August 2015.
  28. ↑ "Census 2011 data rekindles ‘demographic invasion’ fear in Assam".
  29. ↑ "Religious communities Census 2011: What the numbers say". The Hindu. Retrieved 17 April 2016.
  30. ↑ "Bodos and their rights".
  31. ↑ "Assembly polls: Chasing the Muslim vote".
  32. ↑ "Muslim majority districts in Assam up".
  33. ↑ "Assam Muslim growth is higher in districts away from border".
  34. ↑ "Census 2011 data rekindles ‘demographic invasion’ fear in Assam".
  35. ↑ "Badruddin Ajmal: Businessman, AIUDF chief and Assam’s next kingmaker?". http://www.hindustantimes.com/. Retrieved 12 April 2016. External link in |work= (help)
  36. ↑ "The politics around the two ends of Assam’s complex Muslim spectrum". The Indian Express. 8 April 2016. Retrieved 12 April 2016.
  37. ↑ Supratim Dey (27 November 2015). "BJP blows poll bugle in Assam with Amit Shah's rally".
  38. ↑ "RSS workers ‘stopped’ me from entering Assam temple: Rahul Gandhi". The Indian Express. 15 December 2015.
  39. ↑ "Tarun Gogoi to be CM candidate in 2016 Assam polls: Rahul Gandhi". Hindustan Times.
  40. ↑ Sandeep Phukan (7 February 2016). "Assam Tea Workers Await Tribal Status As Congress, BJP Fight For Their Vote". NDTV.com.
  41. ↑ "Koch royal families of Assam raise the ante for ST status". The Times of India.
  42. ↑ "Demographic Alarm: Centre speeds up process to make Assam a tribal majority state". dna. 4 April 2015.
  43. ↑ "Nine Assam Cong MLAs to join BJP today". The Times of India.
  44. ↑ "Hindustan is for Hindus: Assam governor". The Times of India.
  45. ↑ "Ex-Ulfa rebels to contest Assam polls". Hindustan Times.
  46. ↑ "BJP launches Assam Nirman to chart roadmap to progress". The Times of India.
  47. ↑ pti. "Rise in crimes against women in Assam: Irani". The Hindu.
  48. ↑ "Top BJP leaders to visit state in Dec". The Times of India.
  49. ↑ "Citizenship delay due to BJP: Assam CM Tarun Gogoi". Economic Times.
  50. ↑ "BJP trying to bring goondaraj to Assam: CM Tarun Gogoi".
  51. ↑ "Assam CM Tarun Gogoi doles out scheme to build all-religion bhawans".
  52. ↑ "Four months to Assam assembly polls, Gogoi govt to give rice at Rs 2 a kg". The Indian Express. 2 January 2016.
  53. ↑ "Assam Congress rules out truck with AIUDF, AGP". The Times of India.
  54. ↑ Sanjay Kumar. "The state in the States". The Hindu.
  55. ↑ "Bangladesh border fence in Assam to be completed this year: Rajnath Singh".
  56. ↑ "Gogoi tirade against Rajnath, Modi". The Telegraph.
  57. ↑ "Not satisfied with fencing work along Dhubri sector of India-Bangladesh border: Rajnath Singh". Economic Times.
  58. ↑ "Gogoi: Rajnath shirked duty, indulged in politics in Assam".
  59. ↑ "Ground Report From Dhubri: Will Border Issues Polarise Voters In Assam?".
  60. ↑ "Why PM Modi launched his Assam campaign from Kokrajhar". The Indian Express. 19 January 2016.
  61. ↑ "Prime Minister Narendra Modi to kick off BJP’s Assam campaign".
  62. ↑ "BJP departs from practice, names Sarbananda Sonowal as Assam CM candidate".
  63. ↑ "Sitharaman: Gogoi spreading misinformation about NEIIPP".
  64. ↑ "Ethnic groups seek Ulfa help to get ST tag". The Times of India.
  65. ↑ "Why the militant group ULFA matters ahead of Assam Assembly Polls". Economic Times.
  66. ↑ Ipsita Chakravarty. "A political map of Assam: Congress vs BJP vs AIUDF vs BPF vs AGP". Scroll.in.
  67. ↑ "Assembly polls: BJP, Congress fight to woo tea garden workers". The Times of India.
  68. ↑ "NaMo to inaugurate gas cracker project in Dibrugarh on February 5". The Times of India.
  69. ↑ "After 31 years, Rs 9,965 cr Assam gas cracker project sees light of day". The Indian Express. 6 February 2016.
  70. ↑ "South Asian Games budget up because of terror threat".
  71. ↑ IANS (2 March 2016). "AGP, BJP to fight Assam assembly polls together".
  72. ↑ Firstpost (11 March 2016). "Assam elections: BJP offers a five-party coalition alternative to Congress". Firstpost.
  73. ↑ CM announces Rs 3,000 cr for Barak Valley
  74. ↑ "Rahul in Assam: PM Modi didn’t answer my questions". The Indian Express. 5 March 2016.
  75. ↑ Prabin Kalita (7 March 2016). "Assam polls: Congress ties up with United People’s Party". The Times of India.
  76. ↑ "BJP declares candidates for 1st phase of Assam elections". Hindustan Times.
  77. ↑ "Ballotin: Eye on Dispur".
  78. ↑ "Assam polls 2016: How the world’s largest inhabited island - Majuli - figures in BJP’s game plan". Economic Times.
  79. ↑ "PM Narendra Modi to campaign for BJP’s Assam CM nominee Sarbananda Sonowal". Economic Times.
  80. ↑ "First list of Congress candidates for Assam polls announced". The Indian Express. 15 March 2016.
  81. ↑ "Assam polls: Congress releases list of 57 candidates for second phase". The Times of India. 21 March 2016.
  82. ↑ "Congress releases second list of candidates for Assam Assembly elections". IBNLive.
  83. ↑ "For phase 2, old is gold for Cong- Four fresh faces in final list".
  84. ↑ "BJP’s Himanta files nomination papers from Jalukbari". Hindustan Times.
  85. ↑ Firstpost (17 March 2016). "Assam Election 2016: AIUDF, RJD, JD(U) form grand alliance against BJP, invite Congress to join". Firstpost.
  86. ↑ Naresh Mitra (21 March 2016). "Ajmal and his son in Assam assembly poll fray". The Times of India.
  87. ↑ "Assam: BJP MP Kamakhya Prasad Tasa pitted against CM Tarun Gogoi in upcoming assembly polls". Economic Times.
  88. ↑ "Assam Assembly Election Schedule 2016". infoelections.
  89. ↑ "Pre-Bihu date with elections". The Telegraph.
  90. 1 2 3 "VVPAT usage in 64 seats in 5 states Schedule for the General Elections to the Legislative Assemblies of Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puducherry." (PDF).
  91. ↑ "Congress, BJP neck and neck in Assam, opinion poll projects". timesofindia. 1 April 2016. Retrieved 1 April 2016.
  92. ↑ "BJP to win Assam Assembly elections". abpnews.abplive.in. 29 March 2016. Retrieved 30 March 2016.
  93. ↑ "Assam Assembly Elections 2016 opinion poll: Congress to win 40 seats, BJP-AGP lag behind, AIUDF will be the kingmaker!". india.com. 25 March 2016. Retrieved 29 March 2016.
  94. ↑ "Assam Election Opinion Poll: 2016 India Today C Voter". infoelections.com. 25 Jan 2016. Retrieved 25 January 2016.
  95. ↑ "Opinion Poll says LDF may stage a comeback in Kerala while TMC to retain power in Bengal". dna. 4 March 2016.
  96. ↑ "CPM-led LDF to storm to power in Kerala, BJP-led alliance short of majority in Assam: CVoter poll". The Indian Express. 5 March 2016.
  97. ↑ "Assam records its highest voter turnout".
  98. ↑ Prabin Kalita (12 April 2016). "Assam records highest-ever polling in its history, surprise results likely". The Times of India. Retrieved 17 April 2016.
  99. ↑ Special Correspondent. "Assam’s 85% has pollsters riveted". The Hindu. Retrieved 17 April 2016.
  100. ↑ "High turnout in Assam, West Bengal in second phase; one dead in police firing, FIR against Tarun Gogoi". The Indian Express. 11 April 2016. Retrieved 17 April 2016.
  101. ↑ "Assam polls: 189 EVMs replaced during final phase". The Indian Express. 11 April 2016. Retrieved 17 April 2016.

External links

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