Ayr (Scottish Parliament constituency)

Not to be confused with Ayr (UK Parliament constituency) or Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (UK Parliament constituency).

Ayr
county constituency for the Scottish Parliament

Ayr shown within the South Scotland electoral region and the region shown within Scotland
Current constituency
Created	1999
Party	Conservative
MSP	John Scott
Council area	South Ayrshire

Ayr is a burgh constituency of the Scottish Parliament (Holyrood) which elects one Member of the Scottish Parliament (MSP) via the plurality (first past the post) electoral system. It is also one of nine constituencies in the South Scotland electoral region which elects seven additional members to the Scottish Parliament via a proportional electoral system known as the Additional Members System (abbreviated AMS) which allows for fairer representation for the region as a whole.

Electoral region

The other eight constituencies of the South Scotland region are Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley; Clydesdale; Dumfriesshire; East Lothian; Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire; Galloway and West Dumfries; Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley and Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale. The region covers the Dumfries and Galloway, East Ayrshire, Scottish Borders and South Ayrshire council areas in full and elements of the East Lothian, Midlothian and South Lanarkshire council areas.

Constituency boundaries and council area

Wards of the Ayr Scottish Parliament constituency as of 2011.

1999-2011

The Ayr constituency was created at the same time as the Scottish Parliament, in 1999, following the same boundaries as the existing Ayr constituency at Westminister. In 2005 however most UK Parliamentary constituencies in Scotland were replaced with new constituencies, with the Ayr constituency being abolished and replaced by the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock and Central Ayrshire constituencies.^[1] This had no impact on the boundaries of the Ayr constituency in the Scottish Parliament which used the old Westminister boundaries during the 2007 election to the Scottish Parliament.

The constituency covered the electoral wards of:

Troon, Prestwick, Ayr North, Ayr East (part: excluding Masonhill, Castlehill, Holmston, south Belmont, Kincaidston and Forehill), Ayr West (part: excluding the suburbs of Alloway and Doonfoot) and Kyle (part: excluding Mossblown).^[2]

The remaining section of South Ayrshire was covered by the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency.

2011-

Following the First Periodic Review of Scottish Parliament Boundaries in time for the 2011 Scottish Parliament election the Boundary Commission for Scotland recommended alterations to the existing Ayr constituency which were then implemented and used at the 2011 and 2016 Scottish Parliamentary elections. These boundaries remain in place today and will be used at the mext election to the Scottish Parliament.

The review suggested that the Ayr constituency take in the electoral wards of:

Troon, Prestwick, Ayr North, Ayr East and Ayr West

All remaining wards in South Ayrshire form part of the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency.

Constituency profile and voting patterns

Constituency profile

The Ayr constituency covers a thin stretch of land along the north-west coast of South Ayrshire, taking in the adjoining coastal towns of Ayr, Prestwick and Troon. The constituency has a long-standing tradition as a sea-side resort on the west coast of Scotland. The town of Ayr serves as the administrative centre of the South Ayrshire council area and is the most populated section of the constituency. The town annually hosts the Scottish Grand National and the Scottish Airshow whilst both Prestwick and Troon have regularly hosted the British Open Championship. The seat also takes in Glasgow Prestwick International Airport and Robert Burns cottage in Alloway, Ayr.

Data derived from the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation and the Office for National Statistics indicates that the Ayr seat contains a diverse and muddled mix of affluent suburban areas and deprived council estates, with 43% of the seat's populous living in the 30% most affluent datazones in Scotland.^[3]^[4]^[5] Demographically, the constituency has a high percentage of elderly voters, Church of Scotland Protestants and home-owners, with a higher percentage of outright home-owners compared to the national average.^[6]^[7]^[8]

Voting patterns

Historically the Ayr seat has held a higher level of support for the Conservative and Unionist Party in comparison to elsewhere in Scotland and the United Kingdom as a whole. The equivalent Westminster seat of Ayr was gained by the Conservative Party at its creation in 1950. In subsequent elections the seat went on to return Conservative MP's until the 1997 UK general election, when the boundaries of the constituency were altered in a move involving the transfer of a number of Conservative-voting suburbs towards the south of Ayr to the adjoining Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency which subsequently altered the demographics of the constituency - benefiting the Labour Party. In spite of this at the 1997 election the Ayr seat returned one of the smallest pro-Labour swings in Great Britain at just over 5%.^[9]

Prior to this the Ayr Burghs constituency (which incorporated a number of towns in coastal Ayrshire including Irvine, Troon, Prestwick, Ayr, Saltcoats and Ardrossan) voted continuously Conservative from 1906 until it's abolishment in 1950, making Ayr the longest seat to be held continuously by the Conservatives in Scotland (continuously having a Conservative MP at Westminster for 91 years). Ayr has been represented by a Conservative MP or MSP for a total of nearly 120 years - the longest of any constituency in Scotland.

At the 2003 local council election for South Ayrshire the Conservative party's support in Ayr was largely concentrated around suburban areas located to the south of Ayr and around Prestwick and Troon, primarily contained within the suburbs of Doonfoot, Seafield, Alloway, Ayr Fort, St Leonard's, north Belmont, Masonhill, Holmston and Castlehill in the town of Ayr; Barassie, Muirhead and south Troon in Troon and in north, west and central Prestwick. The Labour party have traditionally found success in the more deprived parts of the constituency, winning in council estates such as Kincaidston, Forehill and Prestwick Toll, throughout north Ayr and in west Troon at the 2003 local council election.^[10]^[11]

The rural north east of the former Ayr constituency - which was transferred to the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency in 2011 - incorporated the majority of the Kyle electoral ward with the exception of Mossblown, Annbank and St. Quivox. The area is similar to the rest of Ayr in that it contains a mixture of affluent and deprived areas, with the former mining community of Tarbolton voting largely in favour of the Labour Party, and more lately the SNP: the Scottish Socialist Party performed strongly in the area at the 2000 Ayr by-election. The villages of Loans, Dundonald and Symington on the other hand have traditionally voted Conservative on a local level, swinging the area as a whole to the Conservatives at the 2003 local election where the party secured 50% of the vote in the section of Kyle covered by the former Ayr constituency. The remainder of the Kyle electoral ward (Mossblown, Annbank and St. Quivox) shares similar characteristics to the north of Ayr and Tarbolton, voting strongly in favour of the Labour party at local elections (55% in the 2003 local council election) - this was the only part of Kyle to form part of the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency until 2011, when boundary change subsequently led to the entire Kyle electoral ward being incorporated in to the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency.

Until the late 2000s the Labour Party held a significant level of support in the more deprived parts of the Ayr constituency and were able to win the constituency by 25 votes at the 1999 Scottish Parliamentary election as a consequence of a high turnout and the constituency's boundaries, which excluded various Conservative-voting suburbs in southern Ayr (including Alloway, Doonfoot, Masonhill, Holmston and Castlehill). Labour's decline in support in the Scottish Parliament coupled with a lower turnout allowed for the Conservatives to secure the constituency comfortably at the 2000 Ayr by-election following the resignation of Ayr's first MSP, Ian Welsh. The by-election was the first by-election of the Scottish Parliament, making Ayr the first Scottish Conservative constituency seat in the Scottish Parliament (who won no constituency seats at the 1999 Scottish Parliament election). The Conservatives went on to hold the constituency at the 2003 and 2007 Scottish Parliament elections, despite marginally losing the seat to the Labour Party at the 2001 UK general election. In 2011 the constituency boundaries were altered, with the electoral ward of Kyle being transferred to the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency. At the same time the remaining portion of the town of Ayr covered by the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency was transferred over to the Ayr constituency. The Ayr constituency went on to return Conservative MSP John Scott to Parliament with a reduced majority at the 2011 Scottish Parliamentary election, despite a reduced drop in the Conservative vote and reduced rises in the SNP vote in the constituency compared to elsewhere in Scotland, and again in 2016.

Members of the Scottish Parliament

	Member	Party
1999	Ian Welsh	Labour
2000 by-election	John Scott	Conservative
2003
2007
2011
2016

Election results

2016 election

Scottish Parliament election, 2016: Ayr^[12]^[13]
Notes: Green background denotes the winner of the electorate vote. Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list. Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member. A Y or N denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.
Party		Candidate		Votes	%	±%	Party Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Y John Scott		16,183	43.0%	+4.1%	13,991	37.1%	+12.2%
	SNP	Jennifer Dunn		15,433	41.0%	+5.4%	14,938	39.6%	-6.7%
	Labour	Brian McGinley		5,283	14.0%	-9.3%	5,306	14.1%	-8.4%
	Liberal Democrats	Robbie Simpson		716	1.9%	-0.2%	742	2.0%	-0.2%
	Scottish Green						1,601	4.2%	+2.2%
	UKIP						639	1.7%	+0.8%
	RISE						195	0.5%	N/A
	Solidarity						155	0.4%	+0.3%
	Independent						119	0.3%	N/A
Informal votes				115			64
Total Valid votes				37,615			37,750
	Conservative hold		Majority	750	2.0%	-1.3%

2011 election

Scottish Parliament election, 2011: Ayr^[14]
Notes: Green background denotes the winner of the electorate vote. Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list. Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member. A Y or N denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.
Party		Candidate		Votes	%	±%	Party Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Y John Scott		12,997	38.9	-1.0	8,539	25.51
	SNP	Chic Brodie		11,884	35.6	+9.3	14,377	42.96
	Labour	Gordon McKenzie		7,779	23.3	-4.0	7,513	22.45
	Liberal Democrats	Eileen Taylor		713	2.1	-3.6	744	2.22
	Scottish Green						685	2.05
	All Scotland Pensioners Party						595	1.78
	UKIP						293	0.88
	Scottish Christian						237	0.71
	BNP						211	0.63
	Socialist Labour						168	0.50
	Scottish Socialist						76	0.23
	Solidarity						30	0.09
Informal votes				118			67
Total Valid votes				33,373			33,468
	Conservative hold		Majority	1,113	3.34

Scottish Parliament election, 2007 Notional Result: Ayr^[15]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative		13,820	40.0	-0.7
	Labour		9,445	27.3	-0.8
	SNP		9,101	26.3	+0.7
	Liberal Democrats		2,013	5.8	+0.2
	Others		187	0.5
Majority			4,375	12.7
	Conservative hold		Swing

2007 election result

Scottish Parliament election, 2007: Ayr^[16]
Notes: Green background denotes the winner of the electorate vote. Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list. Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member. A Y or N denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.
Party		Candidate		Votes	%	±%	Party Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Y John Scott		12,619	40.67	-0.05	8,983	28.90	-6.60
	Labour	John Duncan		8,713	28.08	-6.67	8,871	28.54	-2.29
	SNP	Iain White		7,952	25.63	+11.91	8,560	27.54	+13.73
	Liberal Democrats	Stuart Ritchie		1,741	5.61	+0.01	1,601	5.15	-0.18
	Scottish Green						840	2.70	-1.92
	Scottish Senior Citizens						723	2.34	-0.25^(a)
	Solidarity						346	1.11	+1.11
	BNP						338	1.09	+1.09
	Scottish Christian						253	0.81	+0.81
	Socialist Labour						146	0.47	-0.29
	Scottish Socialist						134	0.43	-5.29
	UKIP						120	0.39	-0.14
	Christian Peoples						90	0.29	+0.29
	Independent - Paddy Scott Hogg						46	0.15	+0.15
	Scottish Voice						27	0.09	+0.09
Informal votes				873			820
Total Valid votes				31,898			31,708
Turnout				32,681
	Conservative hold		Majority	3,906	12.5	+6.52

^(a)-comparison with Pensioners Party (Scotland)

2003 election result

Scottish Parliament election, 2003: Ayr^[17]
Notes: Green background denotes the winner of the electorate vote. Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list. Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member. A Y or N denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.
Party		Candidate		Votes	%	±%	Party Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Y John Scott		12,865	40.72	+2.72	11,221	35.51	+4.58
	Labour	Rita Miller		10,975	34.75	-3.36	9,745	30.84	-1.31
	SNP	James Dornan		4,334	13.72	-5.60	4,366	13.82	-8.82
	Liberal Democrats	Stuart David Ritchie		1,769	5.60	+1.20	1,684	5.33	-0.84
	Scottish Socialist	James Scott Stewart		1,648	5.22	+5.22	1,808	5.72	+4.79
	Scottish Green						1,462	4.63	+2.40
	Pensioners Party						813	2.57	+2.57
	Socialist Labour						240	0.76	-3.27
	UKIP						166	0.53	+0.21
	Scottish People's						65	0.21	+0.21
	Am Partaidh Dhuthchail - The Rural Party						32	0.10	+0.10
Informal votes				145			136
Total Valid votes				31,591			31,602
	Conservative hold		Majority	1,890	5.98

2000 by-election result ^[18]

Ayr by-election, 2000
Notes: Green background denotes the winner of the by-election. Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list prior to the by-election. Yellow background denotes the winner of the by-election, who was a list MP prior to the by-election. A Y or N denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	John Scott	12,580	39.44	+1.43
	SNP	Jim Mather	9,236	28.95	+9.48
	Labour	Rita Miller	7,054	22.1	-15.97
	Scottish Socialist	James Stewart	1,345	4.22	+4.22
	Liberal Democrats	Stuart Ritchie	800	2.51	-1.91
	Scottish Green	Gavin Nelson Corbett	460	1.44	+1.44
	The Radio Vet	William Clifton Botcherby	186	0.53	+0.53
	UKIP	Alistair David Mconnachie	113	0.35	+0.35
	ProLife Alliance	Robert Graham	111	0.35	+0.35
	Independent	Kevin James Dillion	15	0.05	+0.05
Informal votes			58
Total Valid votes			31,900
	Conservative gain from Labour	Majority	3,344	10.48

1999 election result

Scottish Parliament election, 1999: Ayr^[19]
Notes: Green background denotes the winner of the electorate vote. Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list. Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member. A Y or N denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.
Party		Candidate		Votes	%	±%	Party Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Ian Welsh		14,263	38.08		12,039	32.14
	Conservative	Phil Gallie		14,238	38.01		11,582	30.92
	SNP	Roger Mullin		7,291	19.47		8,477	22.63
	Liberal Democrats	Elaine Morris		1,662	4.42		2,312	6.17
	Socialist Labour						1,510	4.03
	Scottish Green						832	2.22
	Scottish Socialist						347	0.93
	Liberal						150	0.40
	UKIP						119	0.32
	Natural Law						87	0.23
Informal votes				114			97
Total Valid votes				37,454			37,455
	Labour win new seat		Majority	25	0.07

Footnotes

↑ See The 5th Periodical Report of the Boundary Commission for Scotland
↑ See Scottish Parliament constituencies 1999 - 2011
↑ 'Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics'
↑ 'Local Authority Summary – SIMD 2012, South Ayrshire'
↑ 'Population estimates for Data and Intermediate Zones Using Administrative Data: A Feasibility Study using Scotland DataZones and Intermediate Zones'
↑ 'Area Profiles'
↑ 'Accommodation type by tenure by number of rooms by household size (Ayr)'
↑ 'Accommodation type by tenure by number of rooms by household size (Scotland)'
↑ Waller, R. Criddle, B. The Almanac of British Politics. 88.
↑ 'South Ayrshire Council - Election Results - 2003'
↑ 'Consumer Data Research Centre 2011 ONS Area Classification'
↑ 'Scottish Parliamentary Election 5 May 2016 Ayr Constituency' - accessed 6 May 2016
↑ 'Scottish Parliamentary Election 5 May 2016 Result Statement (South of Scotland Region)'
↑ 'Scottish Parliament Election 2011 - Results for the AYR constituency' - accessed 2 May 2015
↑ 'The New Scottish Parliament Constituencies 2011' - accessed 19 Sep 2015
↑ 'Scottish Parliament Election Results - Thursday 3 May 2007' - accessed 2 May 2015
↑ 'Scottish Parliament - Results of the 2003 Scottish Parliament Election'- accessed 2 May 2015
↑ 'Scottish Parliamentary Election - 16 March 2000 (By election - resignation of Ian Welsh MSP)' - accessed 2 May 2015
↑ 'Scottish Parliamentary Election - 6 May 1999' - accessed 2 May 2015

« 1999–2011 « Electoral regions and constituencies of the Scottish Parliament 2011–

Central Scotland	Airdrie and Shotts Coatbridge and Chryston Cumbernauld and Kilsyth East Kilbride Falkirk East Falkirk West Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse Motherwell and Wishaw Uddingston and Bellshill

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South Scotland	Ayr Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley Clydesdale Dumfriesshire East Lothian Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire Galloway and West Dumfries Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley Midlothian South, Tweeddale, and Lauderdale

West Scotland	Clydebank and Milngavie Cunninghame North Cunninghame South Dumbarton Eastwood Greenock and Inverclyde Paisley Renfrewshire North and West Renfrewshire South Strathkelvin and Bearsden

Electoral regions and Constituencies of the Scottish Parliament 1999–2011 » 2011– »

Central Scotland	Airdrie and Shotts Coatbridge and Chryston Cumbernauld and Kilsyth East Kilbride Falkirk East Falkirk West Hamilton North and Bellshill Hamilton South Kilmarnock and Loudoun Motherwell and Wishaw

Glasgow	Glasgow Anniesland Glasgow Baillieston Glasgow Cathcart Glasgow Govan Glasgow Kelvin Glasgow Maryhill Glasgow Pollok Glasgow Rutherglen Glasgow Shettleston Glasgow Springburn

Highlands and Islands	Argyll and Bute Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber Moray Orkney Ross, Skye and Inverness West Shetland Western Isles

Lothians	Edinburgh Central Edinburgh East and Musselburgh Edinburgh North and Leith Edinburgh Pentlands Edinburgh South Edinburgh West Linlithgow Livingston Midlothian

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North East Scotland	Aberdeen Central Aberdeen North Aberdeen South Angus Banff and Buchan Dundee East Dundee West Gordon West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

South of Scotland	Ayr Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley Clydesdale Cunninghame South Dumfries East Lothian Galloway and Upper Nithsdale Roxburgh and Berwickshire Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale

West of Scotland	Clydebank and Milngavie Cunninghame North Dumbarton Eastwood Greenock and Inverclyde Paisley North Paisley South Strathkelvin and Bearsden West Renfrewshire

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