Canadian federal election results in Central Ontario

Electoral history

2015
2011
2008
2006
2004
2000
1997
1993
1988
1984
1980
1979
1974
1972
1968
1965
1963
1962
1958
1957
1953

Canadian federal elections have provided the following results in Central Ontario.

Regional profile

The region is the central section of Southern Ontario, mainly comprising the rural area around Lake Simcoe. This has traditionally been the most conservative region of Ontario, in sharp contrast to the Greater Toronto Area to the south. It has historically been the backbone of support for the provincial Tories.

The citizens of the region are mostly white, Protestant, and agrarian, with a large number of social conservatives. Some parts of this region are as conservative as rural Alberta. This populace gave root to the Reform Party and Canadian Alliance in Ontario, with Simcoe Centre electing a Reform MP in 1993—Reform's only victory east of Manitoba, ever. Though the Liberals swept the region during the Chrétien era, largely due to Reform-PC vote-splitting, the Unite the Right movement (accompanied by Chrétien's departure from office) led to a majority of Liberal MPs losing their seats beginning in 2004. In 2006, Liberal support in this region melted; the only non-Conservative elected in this region was Belinda Stronach, a former Conservative who crossed the floor in 2005. Stronach's seat reverted to the Conservatives in 2008. In 2011, the Conservatives again swept the region. The NDP came in second in all but 1 due to their surge.

The region was one of the few that resisted the massive Liberal surge in Ontario in 2015, though the Liberals managed to take Stronach's old riding of Newmarket—Aurora on the outer fringe of the Greater Toronto Area, a region that swung heavily to the Liberals in this election. They also managed to take all of Peterborough.

The riding of Peterborough—Kawartha (formerly simply Peterborough) had long been recognized by political scientists as one of the best bellwether ridings in the country.^[1]

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2015 - 42nd General Election

Electoral District	Candidates											Incumbent
		Conservative		NDP		Liberal		Green		Other
Barrie—Innisfil		John Brassard 22,901 46.41%		Myrna Clark 5,812 11.78%		Colin Wilson 18,308 37.11%		Bonnie North 1,991 4.04%		Gary Nail (CHP) 199 0.40% Jeff Sakula (CAP) 130 0.26%	Vacant Barrie
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte (judicial recount)		Alex Nuttall 21,091 41.74%		Ellen White 5,202 10.29%		Brian Tamblyn 21,005 41.57%		Marty Lancaster 2,648 5.24%		Ram Faerber (Ind.) 188 0.37% Darren Roskam (Libert.) 401 0.79%		New district
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound		Larry Miller 26,297 46.68%		David McLaren 6,270 11.13%		Kimberley Love 21,879 38.84%		Chris Albinati 1,887 3.35%				Larry Miller
Dufferin—Caledon		David Allan Tilson 27,977 46.28%		Rehya Yazbek 4,398 7.28%		Ed Crewson 23,643 39.11%		Nancy Urekar 4,433 7.33%				David Tilson
Durham		Erin O'Toole 28,967 45.13%		Derek Spence 10,289 16.03%		Corinna Traill 22,949 35.75%		Stacey Leadbetter 1,616 2.52%		Andrew Moriarity (CHP) 364 0.57%		Erin O'Toole
Haliburton— Kawartha Lakes—Brock		Jamie Schmale 27,718 44.83%		Mike Perry 12,012 19.43%		David Marquis 19,634 31.75%		Bill MacCallum 2,470 3.99%				Barry Devolin†
Newmarket—Aurora		Lois Brown 24,057 42.61%		Yvonne Kelly 4,806 8.51%		Kyle Peterson 25,508 45.18%		Vanessa Long 1,331 2.36%		Dorian Baxter (PC) 762 1.35%		Lois Brown
Northumberland— Peterborough South		Adam Moulton 25,165 39.56%		Russ Christianson 9,411 14.80%		Kim Rudd 27,043 42.51%		Patricia Sinnott 1,990 3.13%				Rick Norlock† Northumberland—Quinte West
Peterborough—Kawartha		Michael Skinner 23,335 35.07%		Dave Nickle 12,437 18.69%		Maryam Monsef 29,159 43.82%		Doug Mason 1,480 2.22%		Toban Leckie (SD) 131 0.20%		Vacant Peterborough
Simcoe—Grey		Kellie Leitch 30,612 46.56%		David Matthews 6,332 9.63%		Mike MacEachern 25,352 38.56%		JoAnne Fleming 2,923 4.45%		Len Noordegraaf (CHP) 528 0.80%		Kellie Leitch
Simcoe North		Bruce Stanton 24,836 43.52%		Richard Banigan 6,037 10.58%		Liz Riley 22,718 39.81%		Peter Stubbins 2,543 4.46%		Jacob Kearey-Moreland (NA)[note 1] 618 1.08% Scott Whittaker (CHP) 319 0.56%		Bruce Stanton
York—Simcoe		Peter Van Loan 24,058 50.25%		Sylvia Gerl 4,255 8.89%		Shaun Tanaka 18,083 37.77%		Mark Viitala 1,483 3.10%				Peter Van Loan

2011 - 41st General Election

Electoral District	Candidates											Incumbent
		Conservative		Liberal		NDP		Green		Other
Barrie		Patrick Brown 32,121 56.70%		Colin Wilson 9,113 16.09%		Myrna Clark 11,842 20.90%		Erich Jacoby-Hawkins 3,266 5.77%		Jeff Sakula (CAP) 77 0.14% Darren Roskam (Libert.) 150 0.26% Christine Nugent (CPC-ML) 82 0.14%		Patrick Brown
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound		Larry Miller 28,744 56.30%		Kimberly Love 8,203 16.07%		Karen Gventer 9,008 17.64%		Emma Jane Hogbin 5,099 9.99%				Larry Miller
Dufferin—Caledon		David Tilson 28,647 59.01%		Bill Prout 6,361 13.10%		Leslie Parsons 6,409 13.20%		Ard Van Leeuwen 7,132 14.69%				David Tilson
Durham		Bev Oda 31,737 54.55%		Grant Humes 10,387 17.85%		Tammy Schoep 12,277 21.10%		Stephen Leahy 3,134 5.39%		Andrew Moriarty (CHP) 462 0.79% Blaize Barnicoat (Libert.) 187 0.32%		Bev Oda
Haliburton— Kawartha Lakes—Brock		Barry Devolin 35,192 60.03%		Laura Redman 7,539 12.86%		Lyn Edwards 12,934 22.06%		Susanne Lauten 2,963 5.05%				Barry Devolin
Newmarket—Aurora		Lois Brown 31,600 54.29%		Kyle Peterson 13,908 23.90%		Kassandra Bidarian 8,886 15.27%		Vanessa Long 2,628 4.52%		Dorian Baxter (PC) 998 1.71% Yvonne Mackie (AA) 182 0.31%		Lois Brown
Northumberland— Quinte West		Rick Norlock 32,853 53.83%		Kim Rudd 12,822 21.01%		Russ Christianson 12,626 20.69%		Ralph Torrie 2,733 4.48%				Rick Norlock
Peterborough		Dean Del Mastro 29,393 49.67%		Betsy McGregor 12,664 21.40%		Dave Nickle 14,723 24.88%		Michael Bell 2,105 3.56%		Michael Bates (CAP) 104 0.18% Gordon Scott (Ind.) 189 0.32%		Dean Del Mastro
Simcoe—Grey		Kellie Leitch 31,784 49.37%		Alex Smardenka 8,207 12.75%		Katy Austin 11,185 17.38%		Jace Metheral 3,482 5.41%		Helena Guergis (Ind.) 8,714 13.54% Gord Cochrane (CAP) 244 0.38% Peter Vander Zaag (CHP)757 1.18%		Helena Guergis
Simcoe North		Bruce Stanton 31,581 54.45%		Steve Clarke 11,090 19.12%		Richard Banigan 11,515 19.85%		Valerie Powell 3,489 6.02%		Adrian Kooger (CHP) 322 0.56%		Bruce Stanton
York—Simcoe		Peter Van Loan 33,614 63.58%		Cynthia Wesley-Esquimaux 5,702 10.79%		Sylvia Gerl 10,190 19.28%		John Dewar 2,851 5.39%		Paul Pisani (United) 157 0.30% Vicki Gunn (CHP) 352 0.67%		Peter Van Loan

2008 - 40th General Election

Electoral District	Candidates											Incumbent
		Conservative		Liberal		NDP		Green		Other
Barrie		Patrick Brown 27,927		Rick Jones 12,732		Myrna Clark 6,403		Erich Jacoby-Hawkins 5,921		Paolo Fabrizio (LTN) 260 Christine Anne Nugent (MXL) 84		Patrick Brown
Bruce— Grey— Owen Sound		Larry Miller 22,974		Thomas Noble 6,892		Jill McIllwraith 4,640		Dick Hibma 13,095		Joel Kidd (CHP) 629		Larry Miller
Dufferin—Caledon		David Tilson 23,253		Rebecca Finch 8,464		Jason Bissett 4,362		Ard Van Leeuwen 7,445		Dean Woods (CAP) 300		David Tilson
Durham		Bev Oda 28,440		Bryan Ransom 12,335		Andrew McKeever 5,505		Stephen Leahy 6,023		Henry Zekveld (CHP) 632		Bev Oda
Haliburton— Kawartha Lakes— Brock		Barry Devolin 30,444		Marlene White 11,095		Stephen Yardy 7,962		Michael Bell 4,502		Dave Switzer (CHP) 390		Barry Devolin
Newmarket—Aurora		Lois Brown 24,873		Tim Jones 18,250		Mike Seaward 4,508		Glenn Hubbers 4,381		Dorian Baxter (PCP) 1,004 Ray Luff (CHP) 211		Belinda Stronach†
Northumberland— Quinte West		Rick Norlock 27,621		Paul Macklin 16,262		Russ Christianson 8,219		Ralph Torrie 4,953				Rick Norlock
Peterborough		Dean Del Mastro 27,629		Betsy McGregor 18,413		Steve Sharpe 8,110		Emily Berrigan 4,029		Elaine Couto (MXL) 98		Dean Del Mastro
Simcoe—Grey		Helena Guergis 30,897		Andrea Matrosovs 12,099		Katy Austin 6,288		Peter Ellis 5,684		Peter Vander Zaag (CHP) 1,018 Caley McKibbin (LTN) 143		Helena Guergis
Simcoe North		Bruce Stanton 26,328		Steven Clarke 14,670		Richard Banigan 6,207		Valerie Powell 5,820				Bruce Stanton
York—Simcoe		Peter Van Loan 27,412		Judith Moses 9,044		Sylvia Gerl 5,882		John Dewar 4,887		Paul Pisani (PCP) 676 Vicki Gunn (CHP) 444		Peter Van Loan

2006 - 39th General Election

Electoral District	Candidates											Incumbent
		Liberal		Conservative		NDP		Green		Other
Barrie		Aileen Carroll 22,476		Patrick Brown 23,999		Peter Burzstyn 6,984		Erich Jacoby-Hawkins 3,874				Aileen Carroll
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound		Verona Jackson 14,378		Larry Miller 25,133		Jill McIllwraith 5,918		Shane Jolley 6,735				Larry Miller
Dufferin—Caledon		Garry Moore 14,777		David Tilson 23,641		Chris Marquis 5,983		Ted Alexander 4,912				David Tilson
Durham		Doug Moffat 17,290		Bev Oda 27,087		Bruce Rogers 9,946		Virginia Mae Ervin 2,676		Henry Zekveld (CHP) 612		Bev Oda
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock		Greg Walling 17,266		Barry Devolin 29,427		Anne MacDermid 10,340		Andy Harjula 3,017				Barry Devolin
Newmarket—Aurora		Belinda Stronach 27,176		Lois Brown 22,376		Ed Chudak 5,639		Glenn Hubbers 2,813		Peter Maloney (CAP) 79 Dorian Baxter (PC) 729		Belinda Stronach
Northumberland—Quinte West		Paul Macklin 22,566		Rick Norlock 25,833		Russ Christianson 11,334		Pat Lawson 2,946				Paul Macklin
Peterborough		Diane Lloyd 20,532		Dean Del Mastro 22,774		Linda Slavin 16,286		Brent Wood 3,205		Bob Bowers (Ind.) 179 Aiden Wiechula (Mar.) 455		Peter Adams†
Simcoe—Grey		Elizabeth Kirley 18,689		Helena Guergis 30,135		Katy Austin 6.784		Peter Ellis 3,372		Peter Vander Zaag (CHP) 1,585		Helena Guergis
Simcoe North		Karen Graham 22,078		Bruce Stanton 23,266		Jen Hill 8,132		Sandy Agnew 3,451		Adrian Peter Kooger (CHP) 617		Paul DeVillers†
York—Simcoe		Kate Wilson 16,456		Peter Van Loan 25,685		Sylvia Gerl 7,139		John Dewar 3,719		Vicki Gunn (CHP) 595		Peter Van Loan

2004 - 38th General Election

Electoral District	Candidates											Incumbent
		Liberal		Conservative		NDP		Green		Other
Barrie		Aileen Carroll 21,233		Patrick Brown 19,938		Peter Bursztyn 5,312		Erich Jacoby-Hawkins 3,288				Aileen Carroll
Clarington—Scugog—Uxbridge		Tim Lang 19,548		Bev Oda 20,813		Bruce Rogers 7,721		Virginia Ervin 2,085		Durk Bruinsma (CHP) 915		Alex Shepherd ^1
Dufferin—Caledon		Murray Calder 17,557		David Tilson 19,270		Rita Landry 3,798		Ted Alexander 3,947		Ursula Ellis (CHP) 443		Murray Calder
Grey—Bruce—Owen Sound		Ovid Jackson 17,824		Larry Miller 22,411		Sebastian Ostertag 6,516		Alex Drossos 2,076		Steven Taylor (CHP) 982		Ovid Jackson
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock		John O'Reilly 19,294		Barry Devolin 24,731		Gil McElroy 8,427		Tim Holland 2,637		Peter Vogel (CHP) 493 Charles Olito (Ind.) 330		John O'Reilly
Newmarket—Aurora		Martha Hall Findlay 21,129		Belinda Stronach 21,818		Ed Chudak 5,111		Daryl Wyatt 2,298		Dorian Baxter (PC) 1,079		new district
Northumberland—Quinte West		Paul Macklin 22,989		Doug Galt 22,676		Russ Christianson 9,007		Steve Haylestrom 3,016				Paul Macklin
Peterborough		Peter Adams 25,099		James Jackson 18,393		Linda Slavin 10,957		Brent Wood 3,182				Peter Adams
Simcoe—Grey		Paul Bonwick 22,396		Helena Guergis 22,496		Colin Mackinnon 5,532		Peter Ellis 2,668		Peter Vander Zaag (CHP) 2,285		Paul Bonwick
Simcoe North		Paul DeVillers 23,664		Peter Stock 20,570		Jen Hill 6,162		Mary Lou Kirby 3,486		Adrian Kooger (CHP) 544 Ian Woods (CAP) 145		Paul DeVillers
York—Simcoe		Kate Wilson 16,763		Peter Van Loan 21,343		Sylvia Gerl 5,314		Bob Burrows 2,576		Vicki Gunn (CHP) 588 Stephen Sircelj (PC) 670		Karen Kraft Sloan ²

Key map	Barrie Durham Dufferin-Caledon Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Newmarket-Aurora Northumberland-Qunte West Peterborough Simcoe-Grey Simcoe North York-Simcoe
Conservative Party of Canada	Green Party of Canada
Liberal Party of Canada	New Democratic Party

2000 - 37th General Election

Electoral District	Candidates											Incumbent
		Liberal		Canadian Alliance		NDP		PC		Other
Barrie—Simcoe—Bradford		Aileen Carroll 26,309		Rob Hamilton 17,600		Keith Lindsay 2,385		Jane MacLaren 7,588		Ian Woods (CAP) 387 Brian White (Ind.) 234		Aileen Carroll
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound		Ovid Jackson 19,822		Murray Peer 15,960		Karen Gventer 2,166		Allen Wilford 6,872				Ovid Jackson
Dufferin—Peel—Wellington—Grey		Murray Calder 21,678		Don Crawford 15,128		Mitchel Healey 1,473		Richard Majkot 7,926		Robert Strang (Green) 1,464		Murray Calder
Durham		Alex Shepherd 20,602		Gerry Skipwith 13,743		Ken Ranney 2,545		Sam Cureatz 8,367		Durk Bruinsma (Ind.) 326		Alex Shepherd
Haliburton—Victoria—Brock		John O'Reilly 16,710		Pat Dunn 15,591		Rick Denyer 2,409		Laurie Scott 14,508				John O'Reilly
Northumberland		Paul Macklin 20,109		Rick Norlock 11,410		Ben Burd 2,141		Ralph Zarboni 8,768		Tom Lawson (Green) 1,102 Gail Thompson (CAP) 276		Christine Stewart
Peterborough		Peter Adams 25,310		Eric Mann 14,924		Herb Wiseman 3,967		Darrin Langen 7,034		Tim Holland (Green) 903 Bob Bowers (Ind.) 147		Peter Adams
Simcoe—Grey		Paul Bonwick 22,224		George Demery 16,113		Michael Kennedy 1,646		Bill Dunkley 8,655		James McGillivray (CAP) 751 Victor Carvalho (Ind.) 246		Paul Bonwick
Simcoe North		Paul Devillers 24,510		Peter Stock 14,283		Ann Billings 2,272		Lucy Stewart 6,914		Adrian Kooger (Ind.) 305		Paul Devillers
York North		Karen Kraft Sloan 22,665		Bob Yaciuk 11,985		Ian Scott 1,696		Joe Wamback 11,890		Ian Knight (Ind.) 509		Karen Kraft Sloan

Notes

1. Jacob Kearey-Moreland described himself as a Cooperative Interdependence candidate.^[2]

References

1. "The Canadian Encyclopedia, Peterborough: Population". Historica Foundation of Canada. 2007. Retrieved 2007-08-25.
2. Laxer, Michael. "Cooperative Interdependence: Jacob Kearey-Moreland brings a new vision to the federal election in Simcoe North". rabble.ca. Retrieved 5 October 2015.