Christian population growth

Christian population growth is the population growth of the global Christian community. According to 2011 Pew Research Center survey, there are 2.18 billion Christians around the world in 2010, up from about 600 million in 1910.^[1] And according to 2012 Pew Research Center survey if current trends continue, Christianity will remain the world's largest religion by year 2050. By 2050, the Christian population is expected to exceed 3 billion.^[2]

Fertility rate

The Christian fertility rate has varied throughout history, as with other fertility figures. The Christian fertility rate also varies from country to country. In the 20-year period from 1989–2009, the average world fertility rate decreased from 3.50 to 2.58, a fall of 0.92 children per women or 26%. The weighted average fertility rate for Christian nations decreased in the same period from 3.26 to 2.58, a fall of 0.68 children per women or 21%. The weighted average fertility rate for Muslim nations decreased in the same period from 5.17 to 3.23, a fall of 1.94 children per women or 38%. The gap in fertility between the Christian- and Muslim-dominated nations fell from 67% in 1990 to 17% in 2010. If the trend continues, the Muslim and Christian fertility rates will converge in around 2015.

10 countries with highest percentage of Christians	Birth surplus by religion
UN Ranking Country Fertility rate (2005–2010) (births/woman)[3] Percent Christian 1   Vatican City 100.0% 2  Pitcairn Islands 100.0% 3  Ecuador 2.58 91.95% 4  East Timor 6.53 96.9% 5  Armenia 1.39 98.7% 6  Equatorial Guinea 5.36 92.0% 7  Moldova 1.40 95.3% 8  American Samoa 3.22 98.0% 9  Venezuela 2.55 88.0% 10  Greece 1.42 98.0%	Religion Birth surplus[4] Christianity 29,708,799 Islam 21,723,118 Hinduism 13,194,111 Buddhism 3,530,918 Sikhism 363,677 Judaism 194,962 Bahá'í 117,158 Jainism 74,539 Confucianism 55,739 Zoroastrianism 45,391 Taoism 25,397 Shinto 8,534 Global population 78,860,791 Total 78,860,791

By branches

Roman Catholic Church

• Church membership in 2007 was 1.147 billion people^[5] (17% of the global population at the time), increasing from the 1950 figure of 437 million^[6] and 654 million in 1970.^[7][8] On 31 December 2008, membership was 1.166 billion, an increase of 11.54% over the same date in 2000,^[9][9] and slightly greater than the rate of increase of the world population (10.77%). The increase was 33.02% in Africa,^[9] but only 1.17% in Europe. It was 15.91% in Asia, 11.39% in Oceania, and 10.93% in Americas.^[9] As a result, Catholics were 17.77% of the total population in Africa, 63.10% in Americas, 3.05% in Asia, 39.97% in Europe, 26.21% in Oceania, and 17.40% of the world population. Of the world's Catholics, the proportion living in Africa grew from 12.44% in 2000 to 14.84% in 2008, while those living in Europe fell from 26.81% to 24.31%.^[10] Membership of the Catholic Church is attained through baptism,^[11] and from 1983 to 2009, if someone formally left the Church, that fact was noted in the register of the person's baptism.
• Monsignor Vittorio Formenti, who compiles the Vatican's yearbook, said in an interview with the Vatican newspaper L'Osservatore Romano that "For the first time in history, we are no longer at the top: Muslims have overtaken us." He said that Catholics accounted for 17.4 percent of the world population—a stable percentage—while Muslims were at 19.2 percent. "It is true that while Muslim families, as is well known, continue to make a lot of children, Christian ones on the contrary tend to have fewer and fewer," the monsignor said.^[12] Muslims in 2010 represented as much as 23.4% of the total world population and this is expected to increase to 26.3% by 2030.^[13]

Eastern Orthodoxy

Protestantism

• There are more than 900 million Protestants worldwide,^{[1][14][15][16][17][18][19]} among approximately 2.4 billion Christians.^{[14][20][21][22]} In 2010, a total of more than 800 million included 300 million in Sub-Saharan Africa, 260 million in the Americas, 140 million in Asia-Pacific region, 100 million in Europe and 2 million in Middle East-North Africa.^[1] Protestants account for nearly forty percent of Christians worldwide and more than one tenth of the total human population.^[1]
• Protestantism is growing in Africa,^[23][24] Asia,^[24][25] Latin America,^[24][26] Muslim world,^[27] and Oceania,^[28] while remaining stable or declining in Anglo America^[28] and Europe,^[17][29] with some exceptions such as France,^[30] where it was eradicated after the abolition of the Edict of Nantes by the Edict of Fontainebleau and the following persecution of Huguenots, but now is claimed to be stable in number or even growing slightly.^[30] According to some, Russia is another country to see a Protestant revival.^[31][32][33]

By country

• According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the World Christian Database as of 2007 estimated the six fastest-growing religions of the world to be Islam (1.84%), the Bahá'í Faith (1.7%), Sikhism (1.62%), Jainism (1.57%), Hinduism (1.52%) and Christianity (1.32%). High birth rates were cited as the reason for the growths.^[34]
• The U.S. Center for World Mission stated a growth rate of Christianity at 2.3% for the period 1970 to 1996 (slightly higher than the world population growth rate at the time). This increased the claimed percentage of adherents of Christianity from 33.7% to 33.9%.^[35]
• The World Christian Database as of 2007 estimated the growth rate of Christianity at 1.32%. High birth rates and conversions were cited as the main reasons.^[36]
• Using data from the period 2000–2005 the 2006 Christian World Database estimated that by number of new adherents, Christianity was the fastest growing religion in the world with 30,360,000 new adherents in 2006. This was followed by Islam with 23,920,000 and Hinduism with 13,224,000 estimated new adherents in the same period.^[37]
• According to 2011 Pew Research Center survey, there are 2.18 billion Christians around the world in 2010, up from about 600 million in 1910.^[1]
• According to 2015 Believers in Christ from a Muslim Background: A Global Census study estimates 10,283,700 Muslim convert to Christianity around the world.^[27]
• According to 2012 Pew Research Center survey if current trends continue, Christianity will remains the world's largest religion by year 2050. By 2050, the Christian population is expected to exceed 3 billion.^[2] While Muslims have an average of 3.1 children per woman—the highest rate of all religious groups. Christians are second, with 2.7 children per woman.

Country or subnational unit	Regular church attendance (%)
Alabama	58%[38]
Poland	56.7%[39]
Texas	49%[38]
United States average	42%[38]
California	32%[38]
Canada	25%
Vermont	24% [38]
France	15%
United Kingdom	10%[40]
Australia	7.5%[41]
Norway	5%[42]

Africa

• Christianity has been estimated^[1] to be growing rapidly in South America, Africa, and Asia.^[22] In Africa, for instance, in 1900, there were only 8.7 million^[1] adherents of Christianity; now there are 390 million,^[1] and it is expected that by 2025 there will be 600 million Christians in Africa.^[1] The number of Catholics in Africa has increased from one million in 1902 to 329,882,000.^[1] There are now 1.5 million churches whose congregations account for 46 million people.
• A 2015 study estimates 2,161,000 Muslim Africans that convert to Christianity.^[27]

Algeria

• Converts to Christianity may be investigated and searched by the authorities.^[43] Conversions to Christianity have been most common in Kabylie, especially in the wilaya of Tizi-Ouzou.^[44]
• A 2015 study estimates 380,000 Muslims converted to Christianity in Algeria.^[27]

Ethiopia

• A 2015 study estimates 400,000 Muslims converted to Christianity in Ethiopia.^[27]

Morocco

• On 27 March 2010, the Moroccan magazine TelQuel stated that thousands of Moroccans had converted to Christianity. Pointing out the absence of official data, Service de presse Common Ground, cites unspecified sources that stated that about 5,000 Moroccans became Christians between 2005 and 2010.^[45] According to the International Religious Freedom Report for 2014 estimate that there may be as many as 8,000 Christian citizens throughout the country, but many reportedly do not meet regularly due to fear of government surveillance and social persecution.^[46]
• According to different estimates, there are about 25,000-45,000 Moroccan Christians of Berber or Arab descent mostly converted from Islam.^[47] Other sources give a number of a bit more than 1,000.^[48] A popular Christian program by Brother Rachid has led many former Muslims in North Africa and the Middle East to convert to Christianity. His programs have been credited with assisting in the conversion of over 150,000 former Muslims to Christianity in Morocco.^[49]

Nigeria

• The percentage of Christians in Nigeria grew from 21.4% in 1953 to 48.2% in 2003.^[50] This is due to the high number of missionaries in Nigeria.

South Africa

• In South Africa, Pentecostalism has grown from 0.2% in 1951 to 7.6% in 2001.^[51]

Tunisia

• International Religious Freedom Report for 2007 estimate thousands of Tunisian Muslims who convert to Christianity.^[52]

America

Canada

In the Canada 2001 Census^{[53][54][55][56]} 72% of the Canadian population list Roman Catholicism or Protestantism as a religion. The Roman Catholic Church in Canada is by far the country's largest single denomination. Those who listed no religion account for 16% of total respondents. In British Columbia, however, 35% of respondents reported no religion—more than any single denomination and more than all Protestants combined.^[57]

Top Religious Denominations in Canada

	2001		1991		% change (in numbers)
	Number	%	Number	%
Total Population	29,639,035		26,944040		+9.8
Christian	22,851,825	77	22,503,360	83	+1.5
– Roman Catholic	12,793,125	43.2	12,203,625	45.2	+4.8
– Total Protestant	8,654,845	29.2	9,427,675	34.9	−8.2
– United Church of Canada	2,839,125	9.6	3,093,120	11.5	−8.2
– Anglican Church of Canada	2,035,495	6.9	2,188,110	8.1	−7.0
– Christian, not included elsewhere¹	780,450	2.6	353,040	1.3	+121.1
- Baptist	729,470	2.5	663,360	2.5	+10.0
– Lutheran	606,590	2.0	636,205	2.4	−4.7
– Protestant, not included elsewhere²	549,205	1.9	628,945	2.3	−12.7
– Presbyterian	409,830	1.4	636,295	2.4	−35.6
– Christian Orthodox	495,245	1.7	387,395	1.4	+27.8
No Religious Affiliation	4,900,090	16.5	3,397,000	12.6	+44.2
Other
– Muslim	579,645	2.0	253,265	0.9	+128.9
– Jewish	329,990	1.1	318,185	1.2	+3.7
– Buddhist	300,345	1.0	163,415	0.6	+83.8
– Hindu	297,200	1.0	157,010	0.6	+89.3
– Sikh	278,415	0.9	147,440	0.5	+88.8
¹ Includes persons who report “Christian”, and those who report “Apostolic”, “Born-again Christian” and “Evangelical”. ² Includes persons who report only “Protestant”. * For comparability purposes, 1991 data are presented according to 2001 boundaries.

United States

The United States government does not collect religious data in its census. The survey below, the American Religious Identification Survey (ARIS) 2008, was a random digit-dialed telephone survey of 54,461 American residential households in the contiguous United States. The 1990 sample size was 113,723; 2001 sample size was 50,281.

Adult respondents were asked the open-ended question, "What is your religion, if any?" Interviewers did not prompt or offer a suggested list of potential answers. The religion of the spouse or partner was also asked. If the initial answer was "Protestant" or "Christian" further questions were asked to probe which particular denomination. About one third of the sample was asked more detailed demographic questions.

Religious Self-Identification of the U.S. Adult Population: 1990, 2001, 2008^[58]
Figures are not adjusted for refusals to reply; investigators suspect refusals are possibly more representative of "no religion" than any other group.

Source:ARIS 2008^[58]

Group	1990 adults x 1,000	2001 adults x 1,000	2008 adults x 1,000	Numerical Change 1990– 2008 as % of 1990	1990 % of adults	2001 % of adults	2008 % of adults	change in % of total adults 1990– 2008
Adult population, total	175,440	207,983	228,182	30.1%
Adult population, Responded	171,409	196,683	216,367	26.2%	97.7%	94.6%	94.8%	−2.9%
Total Christian	151,225	159,514	173,402	14.7%	86.2%	76.7%	76.0%	−10.2%
Catholic	46,004	50,873	57,199	24.3%	26.2%	24.5%	25.1%	−1.2%
non-Catholic Christian	105,221	108,641	116,203	10.4%	60.0%	52.2%	50.9%	−9.0%
Baptist	33,964	33,820	36,148	6.4%	19.4%	16.3%	15.8%	−3.5%
Mainline Christian	32,784	35,788	29,375	−10.4%	18.7%	17.2%	12.9%	−5.8%
Methodist	14,174	14,039	11,366	−19.8%	8.1%	6.8%	5.0%	−3.1%
Lutheran	9,110	9,580	8,674	−4.8%	5.2%	4.6%	3.8%	−1.4%
Presbyterian	4,985	5,596	4,723	−5.3%	2.8%	2.7%	2.1%	−0.8%
Episcopalian/Anglican	3,043	3,451	2,405	−21.0%	1.7%	1.7%	1.1%	−0.7%
United Church of Christ	438	1,378	736	68.0%	0.2%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%
Christian Generic	25,980	22,546	32,441	24.9%	14.8%	10.8%	14.2%	−0.6%
Christian Unspecified	8,073	14,190	16,384	102.9%	4.6%	6.8%	7.2%	2.6%
Non-denominational Christian	194	2,489	8,032	4040.2%	0.1%	1.2%	3.5%	3.4%
Protestant – Unspecified	17,214	4,647	5,187	−69.9%	9.8%	2.2%	2.3%	−7.5%
Evangelical/Born Again	546	1,088	2,154	294.5%	0.3%	0.5%	0.9%	0.6%
Pentecostal/Charismatic	5,647	7,831	7,948	40.7%	3.2%	3.8%	3.5%	0.3%
Pentecostal – Unspecified	3,116	4,407	5,416	73.8%	1.8%	2.1%	2.4%	0.6%
Assemblies of God	617	1,105	810	31.3%	0.4%	0.5%	0.4%	0.0%
Church of God	590	943	663	12.4%	0.3%	0.5%	0.3%	0.0%
Other Protestant Denominations	4,630	5,949	7,131	54.0%	2.6%	2.9%	3.1%	0.5%
Churches of Christ	1,769	2,593	1,921	8.6%	1.0%	1.2%	0.8%	−0.2%
Seventh-Day Adventist	668	724	938	40.4%	0.4%	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%
Jehovah's Witnesses	1,381	1,331	1,914	38.6%	0.8%	0.6%	0.8%	0.1%
Mormon/Latter Day Saints	2,487	2,697	3,158	27.0%	1.4%	1.3%	1.4%	0.0%
Total non-Christian religions	5,853	7,740	8,796	50.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.9%	0.5%
Jewish	3,137	2,837	2,680	−14.6%	1.8%	1.4%	1.2%	−0.6%
Eastern Religions	687	2,020	1,961	185.4%	0.4%	1.0%	0.9%	0.5%
Buddhist	404	1,082	1,189	194.3%	0.2%	0.5%	0.5%	0.3%
Muslim	527	1,104	1,349	156.0%	0.3%	0.5%	0.6%	0.3%
New Religious Movements & Others	1,296	1,770	2,804	116.4%	0.7%	0.9%	1.2%	0.5%
None/ No religion, total	14,331	29,481	34,169	138.4%	8.2%	14.2%	15.0%	6.8%
Agnostic+Atheist	1,186	1,893	3,606	204.0%	0.7%	0.9%	1.6%	0.9%
Did Not Know/ Refused to reply	4,031	11,300	11,815	193.1%	2.3%	5.4%	5.2%	2.9%

Highlights:^[58]

1. The ARIS 2008 survey was carried out during February–November 2008 and collected answers from 54,461 respondents who were questioned in English or Spanish.
2. The American population self-identifies as predominantly Christian but Americans are slowly becoming less Christian.
   • 86% of American adults identified as Christians in 1990 and 76% in 2008.
   • The historic Mainline churches and denominations have experienced the steepest declines while the non-denominational Christian identity has been trending upward particularly since 2001.
   • The challenge to Christianity in the U.S. does not come from other religions but rather from a rejection of all forms of organized religion.
3. 34% of American adults considered themselves "Born Again or Evangelical Christians" in 2008.
4. The U. S. population continues to show signs of becoming less religious, with one out of every seven Americans failing to indicate a religious identity in 2008.
   • The "Nones" (no stated religious preference, atheist, or agnostic) continue to grow, though at a much slower pace than in the 1990s, from 8.2% in 1990, to 14.1% in 2001, to 15.0% in 2008.
   • Asian Americans are substantially more likely to indicate no religious identity than other racial or ethnic groups.
5. One sign of the lack of attachment of Americans to religion is that 27% do not expect a religious funeral at their death.
6. Based on their stated beliefs rather than their religious identification in 2008, 70% of Americans believe in a personal God, roughly 12% of Americans are atheist (no God) or agnostic (unknowable or unsure), and another 12% are deistic (a higher power but no personal God).
7. America's religious geography has been transformed since 1990. Religious switching along with Hispanic immigration has significantly changed the religious profile of some states and regions. Between 1990 and 2008, the Catholic population proportion of the New England states fell from 50% to 36% and in New York it fell from 44% to 37%, while it rose in California from 29% to 37% and in Texas from 23% to 32%.
8. Overall the 1990–2008 ARIS time series shows that changes in religious self-identification in the first decade of the 21st century have been moderate in comparison to the 1990s, which was a period of significant shifts in the religious composition of the United States.

Asia

Afghanistan

• The United States Department of State estimated the numbers of the Muslim Afghan who convert to Christianity between 500-8,000.^[59]

Azerbaijan

• According to reports there is about 5,000 ethnic Azerbaijani Protestant community most of them came from Muslim backgrounds.^[60][61]

Bangladesh

• A 2015 study estimates some 130,000 Christians from a Muslim background residing in the Bangladesh, though not all are necessarily citizens.^[62]

China

• In recent years, the number of Chinese Christians has increased significantly, particularly since the easing of restrictions on religious activity during economic reforms in the late 1970s; Christians were 4 million before 1949 (3 million Catholics and 1 million Protestants), and are reaching 67 million today.^[1][63] Various statistical analyses have found that between 2% and 4% of the Chinese identify as Christian.

India

Indonesia

• According to Believers in Christ from a Muslim Background: A Global Census study found that between 1960-2015 about 6.5 million Indonesian Muslims convert to Christianity.^[27] Some reports also show that many of the Chinese Indonesians minority convert to Christianity.^[64][65] Demographer Aris Ananta reported in 2008 that "anecdotal evidence suggests that more Buddhist Chinese have become Christians as they increased their standards of education".^[66]

Iran

• Christianity is reportedly the fastest growing religion in Iran with an average annual rate of 5.2%.^[67] A 2015 study estimates between 100,000 and 500,000 believers Christians from a Muslim background living in Iran, most of the evangelical Christians.^[68]

Israel

Japan

• According to poll conducted by the Gallup Organization in 2006, found that Christianity is has increased significantly in Japan, particularly among youth, and a high numbers of teens are becoming Christians.^[69]

Malaysia

• According to a Hindu organization, 130,000 people converted from Hinduism to Christianity between 1965 and 1990. Around 97,000 joined the Methodist Church and the rest mostly joined various Protestant denominations, with 2,500 joining the Catholic Church.^[70]

Mongolia

• According to the Christian missionary group Barnabas Fund, the number of Christians in Mongolia grew from just four in 1989 to around 40,000 as of 2008.^[71]

Singapore

• The percentage of Christians among Singaporeans increased from 12.7% in 1990 to 17.5% in 2010.^[72]

South Korea

• In South Korea, Christianity has grown from 20.7% in 1985 to 29.5% in 2005 according to the World Christian Database.^[51][73]

Kyrgyzstan

• A 2015 study estimates some 19,000 Christians from a Muslim background residing in Kyrgyzstan.^[62]

Turkey

• According to the newspaper, "Milliyet" reports 35,000 Muslim Turks convert into Christianity in 2008.^[74] A 2015 study estimates some 4,500 believers in Christ from a Muslim background in Turkey, most of them Turks.^[75] The ethnic Turkish Protestant Christian community in Turkey number about 4,000-5,000^[76] adherents most of them came from Muslim Turkish background.^{[77][78][79][80]}

Vietnam

• The US Department of State estimates that Protestant Christianity may have grown 600% over the last decade in Vietnam.^[81]

Europe

France

• Protestants have increased as a percentage of total population from 1% in 1987 to 3% in 2009.^[82]
• Reports form Le Monde estimated that 15,000 Muslims convert every year to Christianity.^[83]

Norway

• It is estimated that Orthodoxy is the fastest growing religious faith in Norway, due to immigration from other countries, with a growth rate from 2000 to 2009 at 231.1%.^[84]

Russia

• According to Roman Silantyev the executive secretary of the Inter-religious Council in Russia. About 2 million Muslims in Russia convert to Christianity between in the last fifteen years while only 2,5 thousand Russians converted to Islam.^[85]

Continents and countries with the largest Christian population in 2050 if the percentage remains the same as today

Table based on statistics from GeoHive:^[86][87]

Rank	Continent	Christians (2010)	Rank	Continent	Christians (2050)
1.	Americas	804,140,000	1.	Americas	1,005,838,000
2.	Europe	550,911,000	2.	Africa	951,270,000
3.	Africa	482,240,000	3.	Europe	670,607,000
4.	Asia	278,273,000	4.	Asia	353,125,000
5.	Oceania	25,754,000	5.	Oceania	37,662,000

Rank	Country	Christians (2010)	Rank	Country	Christians (2050)
1.	United States	243,186,000	1.	United States	329,343,000
2.	Brazil	174,700,000	2.	Brazil	235,666,000
3.	Mexico	105,095,000	3.	Ethiopia	179,493,000
4.	Russia	99,775,000	4.	Congo, Democratic Republic of	170,380,000
5.	Philippines	81,530,000	5.	Mexico	139,773,000
6.	Nigeria	76,281,000	6.	Nigeria	127,374,000
7.	China, People's Republic of	66,959,000	7.	Uganda	123,415,000
8.	Congo, Democratic Republic of	63,825,000	8.	Russia	115,756,000
9.	Italy	55,070,000	9.	Philippines	112,756,000
10.	Ethiopia	54,978,000	10.	China, People's Republic of	102,208,000

See also

• Muslim population growth
• Claims to be the fastest-growing religion
• Christian views on contraception
• Christian mission
• Christianity by country
• Christian emigration

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