Croatian presidential election, 2014–15

Croatian presidential election, 2014–15
Croatia
28 December 2014
11 January 2015
Turnout 47.12% (first round)
59.05% (second round)
 
Nominee Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović Ivo Josipović
Party HDZ Independent
Popular vote 1,114,945 1,082,436
Percentage 50.74% 49.26%

Results of the second round in all of Croatia's counties: the candidate with the majority of votes in each administrative division.
      Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović       Ivo Josipović
President before election

Ivo Josipović
Independent

 Elected President

Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović
HDZ

Croatia
Coat of arms
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Presidential elections were held in Croatia on 28 December 2014 and 11 January 2015, the sixth such elections since independence in 1991. With only four candidates taking part, the elections had the lowest number of competitors since 1997.

As no candidate received 50% of the vote in the first round in December 2014, a run-off took place in January 2015 between the two candidates with the most votes; incumbent President Ivo Josipović and Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović.[1] In the runoff, Josipović was defeated by Grabar-Kitarović by a slim margin of 32,509 votes, which without the diaspora vote came down to a 1,989 vote majority for Grabar-Kitarović, who became Croatia's first female president,[2]

The elections were only the second to have a woman in the run-off, the other occasion having been the 2005 elections, and also featured the youngest candidate to run in a presidential contest, Ivan Vilibor Sinčić aged 24. The election of Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović marked the first victory of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) in a presidential election since the death of Franjo Tuđman in 1999, making her the first right-wing president in 15 years. The defeat of Josipović marked the first time that an incumbent president was not re-elected for a second five-year term, with both his predecessors Franjo Tuđman and Stjepan Mesić serving two terms. The victor's 1,114,900 votes was the lowest number of votes received by any president to date. Grabar-Kitarović was sworn in as the fourth president of Croatia on 15 February 2015.

Background and rules

In mid-October 2014 the SDP-led government proposed adopting a new electoral law by February 2015. SDP's parliamentary speaker Josip Leko stated that the party's position in consultation with the Venice Commission was that the electoral law should not be changed within a year prior to an election.[3] However, the new Law on the Election of the President of the Republic of Croatia was subsequently voted in by the SDP-led parliamentary majority on 24 October.[4] The opposition Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) walked out on the vote criticizing the timing, while most of the parliament's minority representatives voted against the law due to a lack of consultation of parliamentary groups.[5] The SDP's Peđa Grbin, head of the parliament's constitutional committee jeered the opposition: "I understand why my colleagues from HDZ are opposed, since they won't have to wait until midnight to find that they've also lost these elections" - ostensibly in reference to a part of the law which shortened the electoral silence from midnight on election day to the closing of the polls.[5]

One of the more significant changes to the law involved limiting voting abroad to consular offices. This had the effect of greatly reducing the number of polling stations in neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina: from 124 in the 2009-10 presidential elections to 15 in the current election.[6] The Croatian People's Assembly, a grouping of Croat parties in Bosnia and Herzegovina, protested at the reduction. Overall the number of polling stations abroad was reduced from 250 to 90.

On 20 November Croatian prime minister Zoran Milanović called presidential elections to take place on 28 December.[7]

Opinions polls in late 2014 showed the Croatian public with high disapproval ratings of the country's direction and the government: 82% and 79% respectively.[8]

Campaign before the official start

Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović was first discussed as the Croatian Democratic Union's candidate in May 2014 after the party emerged with the most votes and seats nationally in the European Parliament elections.[9] Her candidature was confirmed by party leader Tomislav Karamarko on 12 June.[10]

In October, president Josipović had to deal with the fallout from an article written by his chief analyst Dejan Jović claiming that the 1991 Croatian independence referendum was "quite illiberal and was not held in free and honest circumstances".[11] Josipović subsequently dismissed Jović.

The deadline for potential candidates to submit the required 10,000 signatures to the electoral commission was midnight on the night of December 6. The first to submit his signatures was Milan Kujundžić who handed them in on 5 December. Incumbent president Ivo Josipović submitted his 203,875 signatures along with prime minister Zoran Milanović and other members of his cabinet on the day of the deadline.[12] Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović and Ivan Sinčić both also submitted the required signatures later that day.

Candidates

As of 22 November 2014, the following candidates had announced their bids:[1]

Withdrawn candidate bids

First round candidates

Candidates seeking nomination first had to submit a minimum of 10,000 citizens' signatures to the State Electoral Commission (Državno izborno povjerenstvo or DIP) in order for their candidacy to be formally accepted. The signatures had to be collected in a period of twelve days, from 25 November to 6 December. The deadline for submissions was midnight, 6 December, with most candidates submitting a much larger number of signatures as a show of support. Following the submissions, DIP will have two days to check the validity of signatures, and is expected to announce a final list of candidates by midnight on 8 December. On 9 December the campaign will officially start, and will last for 18 days until 26 December, celebrated in Croatia as St. Stephen's Day.

Candidate Party affiliation Political remarks Proof of nomination Website
Ivo Josipović Nominally Independent, supported by the Social Democratic Party of Croatia Incumbent, stands for re-election after completing his first term. Although formally independent, Josipović was nominated by the ruling Social Democratic Party of Croatia (SDP),[13] and is supported by 16 other left wing, centre-left, green and liberal parties. Running on a centre-left platform focusing on judiciary and fight against corruption, as well as proposed reforms to the constitution which would grant the president more executive powers. Submitted some 203,000 signatures on 6 December.[25] josipovic.hr
Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović Croatian Democratic Union Candidate of the biggest opposition party, the centre-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), and supported by 7 other centre-right parties. Former foreign minister in the Cabinet of Ivo Sanader I (2003–08), Grabar-Kitarović is running on a centre-right platform. Submitted some 330,000 signatures on 6 December.[26] kolinda.hr
Milan Kujundžić Croatian Dawn Founder and president of the right-wing populist Croatian Dawn (HZ) non-parliamentary party, formed in July 2013 as a splinter party of HDZ, following Kujundžić's defeat in internal party elections. Also supported by 6 other right-wing and nationalist parties. Running on a right-wing populist platform. Submitted some 50,000 signatures on 5 December.[27] milankujundzic.hr
Ivan Vilibor Sinčić Human Blockade[28] Nominated by an activist organization called Živi Zid (Human Blockade) which fights forced home evictions by organising human shields, and which was registered as a political party in July 2011. Running on an eurosceptic, anti-NATO populist platform. Submitted some 15,000 signatures on 6 December.[29] s-p.hr

Failed candidacies

Campaign

During the course of the first-round campaign the head of the president's War Veterans Council Vlado Marić gave his resignation in protest of Josipović. His resignation cited a lack of an "appropriate reaction to multiple attempts to show either [Josipović] or his close associates, personally or through the War Veterans Council, of the difficulty and seriousness of the problems affecting Croatian veterans".[37]

Incumbent president Ivo Josipović addressed his supporters on the night of the first round of elections. During his speech he stated "Too much blood has been spilled for Croatia and too many defenders died that we would give Croatia up to those who don't deserve it" in reference to the opposition challenger Grabar-Kitarović.[38] The Croatian Democratic Union criticized the president's rhetoric as "dirty and aggressive" and stressed that while Josipović "speaks of blood", their candidate offers "peace, unity and optimism".[39]

After the first round, third place candidate Ivan Sinčić was asked which of the two candidates he would support in the second round to which he replied that he could not support either due to moral reasons. Sinčić's Živi zid told his supporters to spoil their ballots in the second round by entering Sinčić's name on the ballot.[40] Vice-president of the SDP government Milanka Opačić called Sinčić a "colourful lie" in an interview from the Josipović campaign headquarters on the night of the first-round elections.[41] In response Sinčić's campaign manager Dušan Cvetanović called SDP and the government "a colourful lie which ever fewer people have faith in". SDP vice-president and director of operations for Josipović's campaign Željka Antunović also said that "Sinčić acted like an anarchist and didn't offer solutions".[42] Nevertheless, the following day Josipović reached out to Sinčić's voters: "I hope that those voters who were for Sinčić recognize that this is a field where we're playing together".[43] Sinčić continued his work with Živi zid after the first round. He was arrested during an attempt to prevent an eviction in Zagreb on 8 January.[44]

Fourth placed candidate Milan Kujundžić implicitly endorsed Grabar-Kitarović during his concession speech on the first-round election night stating that "Croatia will get a new president".[45] The Croatian Party of Rights which had backed Kujundžić subsequently endorsed Grabar-Kitarović.

Grabar-Kitarović entered the second round as only the second woman to do so after Jadranka Kosor in 2005, and attempting to be the first to win the presidency. In prime minister Milanović's new-year interview with RTL he referred to her as a "prima ballerina" in the previous HDZ government when she served as minister.[46] In the interview Milanović also referred to Croatian Catholic bishops as "the most backward in Europe" and referred to Orthodox Christmas as the only non-working day in the coming weeks, despite Ephipany being celebrated as a national non-working holiday on 6 January and Orthodox Christmas being an optional non-working holiday reserved for those Orthodox observing it.[47]

Josipović continued with some events in his presidential role during the campaign. On 6 January he was to attend the Serbian National Council's Christmas party. Traditionally, the event is attended by the president although Josipović had last been in 2012 after a falling-out with the head of the council Milorad Pupovac.[48][49]

Campaign spending

Candidate (Party) Amount spent

- until December 28 [50]

 Votes Average spent per vote
  Ivo Josipović (SDP supported) 5,400,000 687,558 7.8
  Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović (HDZ) 2,500,000 665,309 3.8
  Milan Kujundžić (SZH) 390,806 112,581 3.5
  Ivan Sinčić (Živi zid) 92,627 293,562 0.32

Debates - Second round

Grabar-Kitarović and Josipović were scheduled to have three head-to-head debates before the second round:[51]

Opinion polls

First round

Date(s) Conducted Polling Organisation/Client Ivo Josipović Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović Milan Kujundžić Ivan Sinčić Others Undecided / none
28 Dec Exit polls 38.8% 38.1% 5.7% 15.9%
19 Dec Ipsos plus for Novatv 46.5% 34.9% 7.2% 9.2%
18 Dec Promocija Plus for RTL 42.1% 30.5% 9.3% 7.5% 10.6%
4 Dec Promocija plus for RTL 42.3% 28.3% 11.2% 9.5% 8.7%
6 Sep Promocija plus 48.9% 32.5% 6.8%
4 Sep Ipsos puls 45.5% 30.9% 2.1% 9.4% 12.1%
4 Aug Promocija plus 48.4% 33.6% 4.8% 3.2% 10.0%
1-3 Jul Promocija plus 49.2% 35.2% 4.3% 1.8% 9.4%
June Promocija plus 50.1% 29.2% 6.2% 4.8% 9.6%
June Ipsos puls 50.3% 37.3% 12.4%
May Promocija plus 52.5% 27.0% 6.1% 5.9% 8.6%
April Promocija plus 51.6% 27.2% 4.5% 8.6% 8.2%
March Promocija plus 52.2% 28.4% 8.8% 10.7%
February Promocija plus 54.0% 24.0% 10.3% 11.7%
January Promocija plus 51.7% 17.4% 19.9% 11.0%

Second round

Date(s) Conducted Polling Organisation/Client Ivo Josipović Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović Undecided
11 Jan Exit polls 48.6% 51.4% 0%
18 Dec Promocija Plus for RTL 52.0% 41.3% 6.7%
4 Dec Promocija plus for RTL 50.9% 41.4% 7.7%

Conduct

Results

Results of the first round in all of Croatia's counties: the candidate with the plurality of votes in each administrative division.
  Josipović
  Grabar-Kitarović
 Summary of the 28 December 2014 and 11 January 2015 Croatian presidential election result
Candidates Party 1st round 2nd round
Votes % Votes %
Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović Croatian Democratic Union (Hrvatska demokratska zajednica) 665,379 37.22% 1,114,945 50.74%
Ivo Josipović Independent 687,678 38.46% 1,082,436 49.26%
Ivan Vilibor Sinčić Human Shield (Živi zid) 293,570 16.42%
Milan Kujundžić Alliance for Croatia (Savez za Hrvatsku) 112,585 6.30%
Total 1,759,212 100% 2,197,295 100%
Valid votes 1,759,212 98.44% 2,197,381 97.31%
Invalid votes 27,791 1.56% 60,728 2.69%
Turnout 1,787,928 47.12% 2,258,887 59.06%
Table of results ordered by number of votes received in first round. Official results by Izbori Hrvatska after all polling stations reported for first round.
Majority for Grabar-Kitarovic in the RunOff: DarkBlue: above 60%, LightBlue: above 50,74%, Yellow: above 50%, ...

Analysis

Incumbent president Ivo Josipović and opposition candidate Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović received the greatest number of votes in the first round. The result was notable for being much closer than expected in pre-election polls, with respective vote shares of 38.46% and 37.22%.[55] Political analyst Žarko Puhovski criticized the polls for having an inadequate sample and being overly reliant on telephone polling.[56]

The new electoral law put into place by the Milanović government had the effect of greatly reducing the number of polling stations in neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina for Croatian citizens residing there. This translated to a greatly reduced turnout there: from 50,859 in the first round of the 2009 presidential elections to 7,372 in 2014.[57][58] The Croatian Democratic Union agreed with its sister party in Bosnia and Herzegovina on organizing free buses for voters to polling stations for the second round.[59] Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović had received an overwhelming majority there in the first round. Josipović's campaign complained to the State Electoral Commission that offering free rides to polling stations constituted a donation which would violate electoral rules.[60] However, votes of the diaspora still wouldn't change the outcome.[61]

Around 60% of voters between ages 18 and 29 voted for Grabar-Kitarović, while Josipović was favoured by voters older than 60.[62]

References

  1. 1 2 "ODLUČENO JE Predsjednički izbori održat će se 28. prosinca". Jutarnji list (in Croatian). 19 November 2014. Retrieved 19 November 2014.
  2. ↑ "Grabar-Kitarovic elected Croatia's first woman president". 11 January 2015.
  3. ↑ "Izmjene izbornog zakona do veljače?". N1 (in Croatian). 21 October 2014. Retrieved 3 January 2015.
  4. ↑ "SDP izmijenio Zakon o izboru predsjednika, ljutiti HDZ-ovci napustili Sabor". Jutarnji list (in Croatian). 24 October 2014. Retrieved 3 January 2015.
  5. 1 2 "Sabor izmijenio Zakon o izboru predsjednika RH". Glas Istre (in Croatian). 24 October 2014. Retrieved 4 January 2015.
  6. ↑ "HNS traži više biračkih mjesta u BiH za hrvatske predsjedničke izbore". Dnevnik.ba (in Croatian). 28 November 2014. Retrieved 3 January 2015.
  7. ↑ "Odluka Vlade Republike Hrvatske o raspisivanju izbora za predsjednika Republike Hrvatske" (PDF). Državno izborno povjerenstvo. 20 November 2014. Retrieved 4 January 2015.
  8. ↑ "Ekskluzivno u Dnevniku Nove TV: HDZ uvjerljivo prvi". dnevnik.hr. 18 December 2014. Retrieved 5 January 2015.
  9. ↑ "Karamarko: Grabar Kitarovic HDZ's most likely presidential candidate". Dalje.com. 27 May 2014. Retrieved 4 January 2015.
  10. ↑ "Kolinda Grabar Kitarovic is HDZ's presidential candidate". Dalje.com. 12 June 2014. Retrieved 4 January 2015.
  11. ↑ "Josipović razriješio savjetnika zbog stava o referendumu '91.". 24sata.hr. 2 October 2014. Retrieved 4 January 2015.
  12. ↑ "I Milanović pomogao dostaviti Josipovićevih 203.000 potpisa". 24sata.hr (in Croatian). 6 December 2014. Retrieved 4 January 2015.
  13. 1 2 "SDP-ovci potvrdili Josipovića za kandidata". Jutarnji list (in Croatian). 6 September 2014. Retrieved 9 November 2014.
  14. ↑ "Josipović se zahvalio HNS-u: 'Hrvatska treba nove temelje'". 24sata (in Croatian). 25 October 2014. Retrieved 9 November 2014.
  15. ↑ "IDS podržava Josipovića" (in Croatian). Predsjednicki-Izbori.hr. 23 September 2014. Retrieved 9 November 2014.
  16. ↑ "HSU odlučio podržati Ivu Josipovića" (in Croatian). Croatian Party of Pensioners. 1 October 2014. Retrieved 9 November 2014.
  17. ↑ "Laburisti podržali Josipovića u borbi za novi mandat" (in Croatian). T-Portal. 19 October 2014. Retrieved 9 November 2014.
  18. ↑ http://www.jutarnji.hr/orah--podrzao-josipovica-holly---njegov-program-promovira-zeleni-nacin-razmisljanja-/1236608/
  19. ↑ Patković, Nikola (6 June 2014). "Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović potvrđena kao kandidatkinja HDZ-a na predsjedničkim izborima". Slobodna Dalmacija (in Croatian). Retrieved 9 November 2014.
  20. ↑ kristina. "Glavni odbor HSS-a donio Odluku da je predsjednička kandidatkinja Kolinda Grabar Kitarović i HSS-ova kandidatkinja".
  21. ↑ "Kujundžić kandidat za predsjednika". Index.hr (in Croatian). 18 October 2014. Retrieved 9 November 2014.
  22. ↑ "ANTO ĐAPIĆ DAJE PODRŠKU KOLINDI 'Odustajem od kandidature, to bi samo zbunilo desničare'". Jutarnji list (in Croatian). 5 December 2014. Retrieved 6 December 2014.
  23. ↑ http://www.index.hr/vijesti/clanak/i-don-ivan-grubisic-odustao-od-predsjednicke-kandidature-ne-zelim-sudjelovati-u-ovakvoj-kampanji/788452.aspx
  24. ↑ "Kandidat Ivan Rude ipak nije uspio prikupiti 10.000 potpisa". Večernji list (in Croatian). 6 December 2014. Retrieved 6 December 2014.
  25. ↑ "Josipović predao 203.875 potpisa, i Milanović mu nosio kutije" (in Croatian). 6 December 2014.
  26. ↑ "Prikupili smo više nego ijedan kandidat u povijesti" (in Croatian). December 6, 2014.
  27. ↑ "Milan Kujundžić je pet do 12 predao kandidaturu za izbore" (in Croatian). December 5, 2014.
  28. ↑ "Tko je Ivan Vilibor Sinčić? Donosimo biografiju 'autsajderskog' kandidata". Večernji.hr.
  29. ↑ "HRT: Sinčić predao kandidaturu: 'Borba za povrat otetog'". Hrvatska radiotelevizija. 6 December 2014.
  30. ↑ http://www.tportal.hr/vijesti/predsjednicki-izbori-2014/361793/Bavcevic-objasnio-kako-je-dosao-do-7-600-potpisa.html
  31. ↑ "Ovo su predsjednički kandidati koji su ostali u utrci za Pantovčak".
  32. ↑ http://www.womeninadria.com/zvizdacica-vesna-balenovic-na-celu-drzave/
  33. ↑ http://www.valpovstina.info/index.php/vijesti/1424-predstavio-se-tomislav-sutalo-kandidat-za-predsjednika-republike
  34. ↑ http://www.24sata.hr/politika/svi-zele-na-pantovcak-u-utrci-mormon-zvizdacica-aktivist-395460
  35. ↑ http://savjest.com/glas_savjesti/glas.php?glas=141&iva-anzulovic-se-kandidirala-za-predsjednicu-rh
  36. ↑ http://www.sbplus.hr/kolumne/manjinas/tomislav_opacak_zeli_biti_predsjednik_svih_hrvata.aspx
  37. ↑ "Vlado Marić dao ostavku na mjesto predsjednika Josipovićeva Savjeta za ratne veterane". Dnevnik.hr (in Croatian). 23 December 2014.
  38. ↑ "Josipović: Previše je krvi proliveno da bi Hrvatsku predali onima koji je ne zaslužuju". Večernji list (in Croatian). December 28, 2014.
  39. ↑ "PALJBA IZ HDZ-a 'Josipović govori o krvi, a Kolinda nudi mir, zajedništvo i optimizam'". Jutarnji list (in Croatian). January 2, 2015.
  40. ↑ "Preporučili svojim biračima za 2. krug: Dopišite broj 3 i zaokružite ime Ivana Sinčića!". Večernji list (in Croatian). December 29, 2014.
  41. ↑ "Iz Sinčićeva stožera uzvratili Opačić: Vaša politika je politika propasti Hrvatske!". Večernji list (in Croatian). 28 December 2014.
  42. ↑ "Autogol Milanke Opačić: Sinčić je jedna šarena laža". tportal.hr (in Croatian). 28 December 2014.
  43. ↑ "Josipović: Sinčić i ja zajedno igramo na istom terenu". Večernji list (in Croatian). 29 December 2014.
  44. ↑ "Would-be president Sincic arrested during eviction". Dalje.com. 8 January 2015. Retrieved 9 January 2015.
  45. ↑ "Kujundžić: Sjeme nove Hrvatske je bačeno". tportal.hr (in Croatian). 28 December 2014.
  46. ↑ "Tko je koliko letio Vladinim zrakoplovom?". RTL (in Croatian). 4 January 2015.
  47. ↑ "Milanović: Glogoški me je molio da ne otkrijem da je bio kod mene". RTL (in Croatian). 3 January 2015.
  48. ↑ "Sve za glasove: Nakon tri godine Josipović ide na Pupovčev domjenak". Index.hr (in Croatian). 5 January 2015.
  49. ↑ "Karamarko neće Pupovcu u goste". Večernji list (in Croatian). 5 January 2015.
  50. ↑ "Josipović svaki glas platio 24 puta više nego Sinčić". tportal.hr. 31 December 2014. Retrieved 5 January 2015.
  51. ↑ "HRT još ne zna tko će biti njihov Bobić i Bago". tportal.hr (in Croatian). 30 December 2014.
  52. ↑ "RTL Duel pratilo više od 800.000 gledatelja". RTL (in Croatian). 5 January 2015.
  53. ↑ "Izbore će nadgledati 22 tisuće promatrača". tportal.hr (in Croatian). 24 December 2014.
  54. ↑ "Na izborima više promatrača iz nevladinih udruga". dnevnik.hr (in Croatian). 5 January 2015.
  55. ↑ "GDJE SE ISTOPILA RAZLIKA? ‘Ankete nisu pogriješile, rezultat su odlučila TV sučeljavanja’". Jutarnji list (in Croatian). December 29, 2014.
  56. ↑ "Zašto 'lažu'? Puhovski: Ankete se rade neozbiljno i zato su griješile". Večernji list (in Croatian). December 30, 2014.
  57. ↑ "POTPUNI SLUŽBENI REZULTATI IZBORA ZA PREDSJEDNIKA REPUBLIKE HRVATSKE". Državno izborno povjerenstvo (in Croatian). December 28, 2009.
  58. ↑ "Privremeni službeni rezultati izbora za predsjednika Republike Hrvatske". Državno izborno povjerenstvo (in Croatian). December 30, 2014.
  59. ↑ "HDZ organizira besplatni prijevoz autobusima na birališta u BiH". Večernji list (in Croatian). 6 January 2015.
  60. ↑ "Josipovićev stožer zatražio od DIP-a da ispita dopuštenost prijevoza birača do birališta u BiH". Novi List (in Croatian). 7 January 2015.
  61. ↑ Pavković, Jozo (12 January 2015). "Dijaspora prvi put na strani pobjednika, ali nije presudila rezultat izbora". Večernji list (in Croatian). Retrieved 12 January 2015.
  62. ↑ Belak-Krile, Anita (14 January 2015). "NOVA GENERACIJA KONZERVATIVACA Oni ne pamte ni rat, ni SFRJ, slušaju narodnjake i izabrali su Kolindu". Jutarnji list (in Croatian). Retrieved 15 January 2015.
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