List of Storm Prediction Center high risk days

Progression of a well-anticipated high risk event across the Central Plains on April 14, 2012. This event ultimately produced 85 tornadoes that day, one of which killed six people.

A high risk severe weather event is the greatest threat level issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for convective weather events in the United States. High risks are issued only a few times a year when forecasters at the SPC are confident that a major severe weather outbreak, namely tornadoes and occasionally derechoes, will occur on the given day. These are typically reserved for the most extreme events.^[1]

Limited details are available for days before the late 1990s, and it is probable that there were additional High Risk days with no online documentation, especially in the 1980s.

High Risk days

1980s–1999

Prior to 1997, data on high risk events is relatively scarce due to a lack of online documentation by the Storm Prediction Center. Most of the listed events from 1984 to 1997 are constructed from case studies on certain outbreak, namely for those in North Carolina, as well as storm chaser accounts.^[2] During this time period, at least 41 high risk outlooks were issued for the United States.

Storm Prediction Center High Risk Events – 1980s–1999[nb 1]
Date	Year	Region	Tornadoes	Peak gust	Fatalities	Outlook	Notes
March 28	1984	East-Central Alabama, Central Georgia, South Carolina, and eastern North Carolina[3]	29		57		1984 Carolinas tornado outbreak – Twenty-nine tornadoes touched down; seven were rated F4. In addition to the 57 tornadic deaths, 1,249 people were injured.[4]
May 3	1984	North Carolina[5]	38		5		Full extent of high risk is unknown, though likely included areas further southeast where most tornadoes occurred.[5] Thirty-eight tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[6]
May 7	1988	Oklahoma[2]	5		0		Severe weather outbreak did not consolidate and event "busted."[2] Five tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.[7]
November 15	1989	Southern U.S.[2]	17		21		November 1989 Tornado Outbreak – Seventeen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[8]
March 13	1990	Central U.S.[2]	59		2		Central US Tornado Outbreak of 1990 – Uncertainty in risk-level; assumed to have been high due to tornadic activity.[2] Fifty-nine tornadoes touched down; two were rated F5.[9]
May 15	1990	Oklahoma[2]	17		1		Seventeen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[10]
June 2	1990	Ohio Valley[2]	68		9		Lower Ohio Valley tornado outbreak of June 1990 – Sixty-eight tornadoes touched down; seven were rated F4.[11]
March 29	1991	North Carolina[5]	21		0		The extent of the high risk is unknown outside of North Carolina.[5] Twenty-one tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[12]
April 11	1991	Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Texas Panhandle[13]	7		0		Severe weather outbreak did not consolidate due to a lack of moisture and instability anticipated to develop.[2] Seven tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[14]
April 12	1991	Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[2]	24		0		Twenty-four tornadoes touched down; two were rated F3.[15]
April 26	1991	Central U.S.[2]	53		24		April 26, 1991 tornado outbreak – Fifty-three tornadoes touched down; one was rated F5.[16]
April 28	1991	Eastern Oklahoma and Kansas[2]	13		0		Thunderstorm complex early in the day prevented significant moisture from moving into the region and ultimately limited severe weather activity.[17] Thirteen tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.[18]
June 16	1992	Midwest [19]	67		1		Mid-June 1992 tornado outbreak – Sixty-seven tornadoes touched down; one was rated F5.[20]
June 17	1992	Great Lakes	28		0		Mid-June 1992 tornado outbreak – Twenty-eight tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[21]
June 7	1993	Upper Midwest	40		0		Forty tornadoes touched down; two were rated F4.[22]
March 27	1994	Southern U.S.	29		40		Palm Sunday tornado outbreak of 1994 – Twenty-nine tornadoes touched down; two were rated F4.[23]
April 25	1994	Central U.S.	28		3		Numerous hail reports. Twenty-eight tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[24]
August 27	1994	Upper Midwest	12		4		Twelve tornadoes touched down; two were rated F3.[25]
November 27	1994	Southern U.S.	18		6		Eighteen tornadoes touched down; four were rated F3.[26]
April 17	1995	Oklahoma, Texas	21		0		Primarily a derecho event
May 7	1995	Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas	32		3		May 1995 Tornado Outbreak Sequence – Day one of a 5 day event
May 12	1995	Kansas	13		0		May 1995 Tornado Outbreak Sequence
May 13	1995	Ohio Valley	27		3		May 1995 Tornado Outbreak Sequence – Included a major derecho
May 17	1995	Kansas	8		0		May 1995 Tornado Outbreak Sequence
April 19	1996	Illinois, Indiana	74	104 mph (167 km/h)	1		April 1996 Tornado Outbreak Sequence
May 26	1996	Kansas, Oklahoma	20	119 mph (192 km/h)	0		Also a derecho
May 2	1997	Mississippi, Alabama	8	92 mph (148 km/h)	1		Also a derecho event
July 1	1997	Upper Mississippi Valley	19	109 mph (175 km/h)	0		Moderate tornado outbreak reorganized into a progressive derecho
February 10	1998	Texas, Louisiana	25	135 mph (217 km/h)	0		Rare winter serial derecho
April 8	1998	Alabama[27]	15	92 mph (148 km/h)	41		Birmingham Tornado of April 1998 – F5 damage in suburban Birmingham
April 15	1998	Middle Mississippi Valley	23	75 mph (121 km/h)	4		1998 Nashville tornado outbreak – Day 1 of outbreak
April 16	1998	Tennessee	38	98 mph (158 km/h)	8		1998 Nashville tornado outbreak – Day 2 of outbreak
May 31	1998	Northeastern U.S.[28][29][30][31]	39	128 mph (206 km/h)	7		Late-May 1998 Tornado Outbreak and Derecho – Only High Risk ever issued in the Northeast
June 14	1998	Ohio Valley	22	92 mph (148 km/h)	0		Followed by a progressive derecho
January 21	1999	Arkansas[32][33]	99		9		January 21–23, 1999 tornado outbreak – Only High Risk ever issued in January
March 8	1999	Arkansas, Louisiana	10		0		Few tornadoes with some scattered hail and wind
April 8	1999	Iowa, Missouri, Illinois	56		6		Cincinnati Tornado of April 1999
May 3	1999	Oklahoma, Kansas[34]	61		48		1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak – Highest winds ever recorded in a tornado, 301 mph (484 km/h)[35]
May 4	1999	Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas[34]	39		1		1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak – Day 2 of outbreak
May 5	1999	Southern U.S.	18		3		1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak – First and only occurrence of three consecutive High Risk days. Major derecho event
June 5	1999	South Dakota, Nebraska[36]	8		0		Event failed to consolidate with only isolated tornadoes and scattered severe wind reported. A shortwave ridge maintained a capping inversion.[37]

2000–2009

There were no high risk days in 2000.

Storm Prediction Center High Risk Events – 2000–2009[nb 1][nb 2]
Date	Year	Region	Tornadoes	Peak gust	Fatalities	Outlook	Notes
April 6	2001	Texas Panhandle, Western Oklahoma, much of Kansas, and extreme southern Nebraska[38]	6	124 mph (200 km/h)^†	1		Serial derecho with widespread wind damage One person was killed by lightning in Ohio.[39] Six tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.[40]
April 11	2001	Eastern Iowa, Southern Wisconsin, and northwest Illinois[41]	50	92 mph (148 km/h)	3		April 10–11, 2001 tornado outbreak – Three people were killed by tornadoes.[42] Fifty tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[43]
June 11	2001	Southern Minnesota, Northeastern Iowa, and West-Central Wisconsin[44]	29	120 mph (190 km/h)	2		Progressive derecho with widespread wind damage. Measured thunderstorm wind gust of 120 miles per hour (193 km/h) near Atwater, Minnesota.[45] Twenty-nine tornadoes touched down; one was rated F2.[46]
October 13	2001	U.S. Gulf Coast[47]	32	112 mph (180 km/h)^†	1		One person was killed by straight-line winds in Illinois.[48] Thirty-two tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[49]
October 24	2001	Midwest[50]	25	104 mph (167 km/h)^†	3		North Central Indiana-Michigan Tornado Outbreak – Plus a major serial derecho. One person was killed by straight-line winds in Michigan.[51] Twenty-five tornadoes touched down; two were rated F3.[52]
April 16	2002	Upper Midwest[53]	14	85 mph (137 km/h)^†	1		One person was killed by straight-line winds in Kansas.[54] Fourteen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[55] High risk removed at 2000 UTC outlook update, prior to the initiation of the most intense severe weather.
July 31	2002	Minnesota, Wisconsin[56]	3	75 mph (121 km/h)^†	0		No fatalities took place.[57] Three weak tornadoes touched down.[58] Only the 0600 UTC outlook included a high risk, the only known time in which a high risk was issued in the early morning outlook and then removed from all subsequent outlooks.
November 10	2002	Midwest and Southern U.S.[59]	66	100 mph (160 km/h)^†	34		2002 Veterans Day Weekend tornado outbreak – No non-tornadic death took place.[60] Sixty-six tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4 (in Northwest Ohio, outside the High Risk area - the strongest tornadoes within the High Risk were rated F3). Thirty-two people were killed by the outbreak. Part of a three-day oubreak that resulted in 83 tornadoes and 36 deaths.[61]
December 23	2002	Texas, Louisiana[62]	15	70 mph (110 km/h)^†	0		Only High Risk ever issued in December and latest in the year by over a month a high risk has been issued since 2000 (second latest November 17, 2013). No fatalities took place.[63] Fifteen tornadoes touched down; three were rated F1.[64]
April 6	2003	Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi[65]	18	83 mph (134 km/h)	0		Eighteen tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[66]
May 4	2003	Central U.S.[67]	81	89 mph (143 km/h)^†	38		May 2003 tornado outbreak sequence – Eighty-one tornadoes touched down; four were rated F4.[68]
May 5	2003	Southern U.S.[69]	25	104 mph (167 km/h)^†	0		May 2003 tornado outbreak sequence – Twenty-five tornadoes touched down; one was rated F3.[70]
May 8	2003	Kansas, Oklahoma[71]	47	104 mph (167 km/h)	0		May 2003 tornado outbreak sequence – Forty-seven tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[72]
May 10	2003	Central U.S.[73]	51	92 mph (148 km/h)^†	0		May 2003 tornado outbreak sequence – Fifty-one tornadoes touched down; three were rated F3.[74] Also included 35% tornado probability area, above the 25% minimum threshold for a high risk.
May 15	2003	Texas, Oklahoma[75]	47	92 mph (148 km/h)^†	0		Forty-seven tornadoes touched down; seven were rated F2.[76]
March 4	2004	Texas, Oklahoma[77]	25	91 mph (146 km/h)	0		Reorganized into a large serial derecho Twenty-five tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.[78]
May 22	2004	Nebraska, Iowa[79]	65	106 mph (171 km/h)	1		May 2004 tornado outbreak sequence – Sixty-five tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[80] First of only two known times a high risk was not issued until 0100 UTC (the other is April 30, 2010).
May 24	2004	Nebraska, Iowa[81]	53	104 mph (167 km/h)^†	1		May 2004 Tornado Outbreak Sequence – Also a major derecho event. Fifty-three tornadoes touched down; two were rated F2.[82]
May 29	2004	Central U.S.[83]	78	90 mph (140 km/h)	3		May 2004 Tornado Outbreak Sequence – Seventy-eight tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[84]
May 30	2004	Central U.S.[85]	81	120 mph (190 km/h)^†	2		May 2004 Tornado Outbreak Sequence – Eighty-one tornadoes touched down; two were rated F3.[86] Included 35% tornado risk area above minimum threshold of 25%.
April 11	2005	Louisiana, Mississippi[87]	3	86 mph (138 km/h)	0		Three weak tornadoes touched down.[88]
June 4	2005	Central U.S.[89]	44	81 mph (130 km/h)^†	0		Forty-four tornadoes touched down; one was rated F2.[90]
November 15	2005	Midwest and Southern U.S.[91]	49	98 mph (158 km/h)^†	1		Mid-November 2005 Tornado Outbreak – Forty-nine tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[92]
March 12	2006	Midwest[93]	55	107 mph (172 km/h)^†	8		March 2006 Tornado Outbreak Sequence – Fifty-five tornadoes touched down; one was rated F4.[94] One supercell storm tracked nearly 800 miles from Oklahoma to Michigan, producing many tornadoes along its path.
April 6	2006	Nebraska, Kansas[95]	12	82 mph (132 km/h)	0		April 6–8, 2006 Tornado Outbreak – Twelve tornadoes touched down; one was rated F2.[96]
April 7	2006	Southern U.S.[97]	47	92 mph (148 km/h)^†	10		April 6–8, 2006 Tornado Outbreak – Outlook included a 60 percent probability of tornadoes, the highest level issued by the SPC.[98] Forty-seven tornadoes touched down; two were rated F3.[99] Also is the first of only two known occurrences (the other April 14, 2012) in which a Day 2 high risk outlook was issued.
March 1	2007	Southern U.S.[100]	39	81 mph (130 km/h)^†	20		February–March 2007 Tornado Outbreak – Thirty-nine tornadoes touched down; two were rated EF4.[101]
April 13	2007	Texas[102]	7	81 mph (130 km/h)^†	1		Busted,Seven tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF1.[103]
April 24	2007	Texas[104]	23	90 mph (140 km/h)^†	7		Twenty-three tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF3.[105]
May 5	2007	Nebraska, Kansas[106]	90	100 mph (160 km/h)	1		May 2007 Tornado Outbreak – Ninety tornadoes touched down; two were rated EF3.[107]
June 7	2007	Upper Midwest[108]	12	81 mph (130 km/h)^†	0		Reorganized into a moderate wind event Twelve tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF3.[109]
February 5	2008	Middle Mississippi Valley[110]	62	100 mph (160 km/h)^†	56		2008 Super Tuesday tornado outbreak – Eighty-five tornadoes touched down; five were rated EF4.[111] One EF4 tornado in Arkansas tracked over 120 miles. Only high risk issued in January or February since January 21, 1999 continuing to present.
March 15	2008	Georgia, South Carolina[112]	46	100 mph (160 km/h)^†	2		2008 Atlanta tornado outbreak – Forty-six tornadoes touched down; three were rated EF3.[113]
May 22	2008	Kansas[114]	28	100 mph (160 km/h)^†	1		Late-May 2008 tornado outbreak sequence – Twenty-eight tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF3.[115]
May 29	2008	Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota[116]	38	85 mph (137 km/h)^†	0		Late-May 2008 tornado outbreak sequence – Thirty-eight tornadoes touched down; two were rated EF3.[117]
June 5	2008	Midwest[118]	40	100 mph (160 km/h)^†	0		June 2008 tornado outbreak sequence – Forty tornadoes touched down; three were rated EF2.[119] Also including a 60% significant severe wind probability which meets high risk standards.
April 10	2009	Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee [120]	64	96 mph (154 km/h)^†	2		April 2009 tornado outbreak – Sixty-four tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF4.[121]
April 26	2009	Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas [122]	11	81 mph (130 km/h)^†			Eleven tornadoes touched down; one was rated EF2.[123] Despite the maintenance of the high risk through the day, the outbreak busted as a whole.
† – Value is estimated

2010–present

There were no high risk days in 2015.

Storm Prediction Center High Risk Events – 2010–2016[nb 1]
Date	Year	Region	Tornadoes	Peak gust	Fatalities	Outlook	Notes
April 24	2010	Southern U.S. [124]	39	120 mph (190 km/h)^†	10[125]		April 2010 tornado outbreak
April 30	2010	Arkansas[126]	27	75 mph (121 km/h)^†	1[127]		April–May 2010 tornado outbreak – Day 2 of outbreak. For only the second known time a high risk was not issued until 0100 UTC (the first such occurrence was May 22, 2004).
May 1	2010	Middle Mississippi Valley[128]	35	83 mph (134 km/h)^†	4		April–May 2010 tornado outbreak – Major flood disaster also occurred from the same storm
May 10	2010	Oklahoma, Kansas [129]	67	100 mph (160 km/h)^†	3		May 2010 Oklahoma tornado outbreak
May 19	2010	Oklahoma [130]	13	70 mph (110 km/h)^†	0		May 10–13, 2010 tornado outbreak
October 26	2010	Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan[131]	68	85 mph (137 km/h)^†	0		October 2010 North American storm complex – Event set record for the deepest extratropical low over the continental US, major derecho event. High risk was based on 60% significant severe wind probability, with a tornado probability of 15% falling short of high risk standards.
April 16	2011	North Carolina, Virginia [132]	52	81 mph (130 km/h)^†	26		April 14–16, 2011 tornado outbreak
April 26	2011	South-Central U.S.[133]	58	110 mph (180 km/h)^†	0		2011 Super Outbreak – Day 2 of outbreak, mostly weak and short lived tornadoes
April 27	2011	Southern U.S.[134]	219	100 mph (160 km/h)^†	319		2011 Super Outbreak – Day 3 of outbreak; Deadliest High Risk day; event set record for most tornadoes in a 24-hour period. Included a 45% tornado area which is above the minimum thresholds for a high risk. Also produced only known watch (PDS tornado watch 235) with a >95% probability for all severe and significant severe hazards.[135]
May 24	2011	Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas[136]	34	92 mph (148 km/h)^†^*	17		May 21–26, 2011 tornado outbreak sequence – Day 4 of outbreak. Included a 45% tornado area, above minimum high risk threshold.
May 25	2011	Midwest [137]	73	100 mph (160 km/h)^†	0		May 21–26, 2011 tornado outbreak sequence – Day 5 of outbreak
March 2	2012	Midwest and Southern U.S.[138]	64	86 mph (138 km/h)^†	42		March 2–3, 2012 tornado outbreak Second earliest in the year a high risk has been issued since 2000 (the earliest is February 5, 2008).
April 14	2012	Central U.S. [139]	83	97 mph (156 km/h)	6		April 13–16, 2012 tornado outbreak – Day 2 of outbreak; Second High Risk to be issued on Day 2 (the day before the event; first Day 2 high risk was for April 7, 2006) and the first/only to date ever issued on the initial (0600 UTC) Day 2 outlook.[139] Included 45% tornado probability above minimum threshold of 30%.
June 12	2013	Midwest [140]	21	95 mph (153 km/h)^†	0		June 12–13, 2013 derecho series High risk driven by 60% significant severe wind probability, with maximum tornado probability of 15%.
November 17	2013	Midwest [141]	73	85 mph (137 km/h)^†	8[142]		November 17, 2013 tornado outbreak - An unusually far north tornado outbreak; One of five high risk days during the month of November in recorded history.[143] Second latest date in the year a high risk has been issued since 2000 (the latest was December 23, 2002 in the Deep South), and latest date a high risk has been issued in the Midwest, surpassing previous latest of November 15, 2005. Also included a high risk level (60% significant severe) wind probability in 2000 UTC outlook.
April 27	2014	Southwestern Arkansas [144]	14	90 mph (140 km/h)^†	19		April 27–30, 2014 tornado outbreak – Day 1 of outbreak. Small high risk area that included the cities of Little Rock, Camden, and Danville. Only one tornado touched down in the area before the high risk was discontinued in a special outlook update at 0230 UTC.[145]
April 28	2014	Alabama, Mississippi [146]	49	70 mph (110 km/h)^†	16		April 27–30, 2014 tornado outbreak – Day 2 of outbreak. Numerous long-tracked and strong to violent tornadoes across Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. Largest tornado outbreak in central Alabama since April 27, 2011.[147]
June 3	2014	Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri [148]	16	100 mph (160 km/h)^†	0		Issued for 60% wind probability and potential derecho; tornado probability was 10%, well short of high risk level. Extreme hail/wind and some tornadoes reported. High Risk discontinued at 01Z.
† – Value is estimated * – Peak wind gust of 151 mph (243 km/h) measured during the EF5 El Reno tornado

See also

• List of United States tornado emergencies
• List of Storm Prediction Center extremely critical fire days

Notes

1. All values include events that took place outside the high risk area. Fatality totals encompass all storm-related events.
2. Starting on February 1, 2007, the Fujita Scale was replaced with the Enhanced Fujita Scale for rating tornadoes.

References

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136. Storm Prediction Center May 24, 2011 1200 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
137. Storm Prediction Center May 25, 2011 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
138. Storm Prediction Center March 2, 2012 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
139. Storm Prediction Center April 13, 2012 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
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External links

• High Risk archive