Lithuanian parliamentary election, 2016

Lithuanian parliamentary election, 2016

9 and 23 October 2016

All 141 seats in the Seimas 71 seats needed for a majority   Leader Algirdas Butkevičius Gabrielius Landsbergis Valentinas Mazuronis Party Social Democrats Homeland Union Labour Last election 38 seats, 18.37% 33 seats, 15.08% 29 seats, 19.82%

Incumbent Prime Minister Algirdas Butkevičius Social Democrats

Parliamentary elections will be held in Lithuania on 9 October 2016, with a second round on 23 October in the constituencies where no candidate wins a majority in the first round of voting.^[1] All 141 seats in the Seimas are up for election; 71 in single-seat constituencies elected by majority vote and the remaining 70 in a nationwide constituency based on proportional representation.

The Lithuanian Social Democratic Party is the largest party in the Seimas before the elections, following its victory in the 2012 elections. The Social Democrats formed a government coalition with the Labour Party and Order and Justice.

Background

The 2012 parliamentary elections were held on 14 October 2012, with the run-off on 28 October. The elections were won by the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania, witch took 38 seats in the 141-member Eleventh Seimas.^[2] Social Democrats were joined in the coalition government by Labour, Order and Justice and the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania. The Polish party withdrew from the government in 2014.^[3]

The resulting government was headed by the leader of the Social Democrats, Algirdas Butkevičius, as the Prime Minister. Butkevičius, his government and the Social Democrats maintained very high approval ratings among the public until early 2016, when they were damaged by a corruption scandal related to construction in protected areas near Druskininkai.^[4][5][6][7]

Electoral system

The Seimas has 141 members, elected to a four-year term in parallel voting, with 71 members elected in single-seat constituencies and 70 members elected by proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency.^[8] Voting in the elections is open to all citizens of Lithuania who are at least 18-years-old.

Members of the Seimas in the 71 single-seat constituencies are elected by a majority vote, with a run-off held within 15 days, if necessary. The remaining 70 seats are allocated to the participating political parties using the largest remainder method. Parties normally need to receive at least 5% (7% for multi-party electoral lists) of the votes to be eligible for a seat. Candidates take the seats allocated to their parties based on the preference lists submitted before the elections and adjusted by preference votes given by the voters.^[8]

To be eligible for election, candidates must be at least 25-years-old on the election day, not under allegiance to a foreign state and permanently resident in Lithuania. Persons serving or due to serve a sentence imposed by the court 65 days before the elections are not eligible. Also, judges, citizens performing military service, and servicemen of professional military service and officials of statutory institutions and establishments may not stand for election.^[8] In addition, a person who has been removed from office through impeachment may not be elected.^[9]

Changes before the elections

The 71 single-seat constituencies in Lithuania were drawn soon after independence, based on the principle that the number of voters in each constituency should be between 90 and 110 percent of the average number of voters per constituency. As the demographic situation changed, the law was adjusted to allow a deviation in the range from 80 and 120 percent, in order to avoid major changes to constituency boundaries.

In October 2015, the Constitutional Court of Lithuania decided that the existing system, which allows the largest constituency to be as much as 50% larger than the smallest one, is unconstitutional, since it does not give sufficiently equal weight to all votes. The court stated that the constituencies should be redrawn in such a way that the number of voters in each constituency is between 90 and 110 percent of the average.^[10]

The decision of the Constitutional Court was implemented in December 2015, when the new constituencies were announced. Major changes included two additional constituencies in Vilnius.^[11][12] No other changes to the electoral system for these elections are planned.^[13]

Opinion polls

	Parties										Won't vote	Don't know	No answer
	LSDP	TS-KD	DP	TT	LRLS	LLRA	DK	LVŽS	ŽP	Other
Last elections
Seats	38	33	29	11	10	8	7	1	-	3	-	-	-
PR vote, %	18.4	15.1	19.9	7.3	8.6	5.8	8.0	3.9	-	8.9	-	-	-
Polls by Vilmorus for Lietuvos Rytas
5–14 November 2015[14]	24.3	9.9	9.2	7.8	11.0	2.7	0.1	6.3	1.6	0.9	10.7	13.7	1.8
4–11 December 2015[15]	23.5	8.4	9.2	7.0	9.8	2.9	0.3	6.0	1.9	0.6	10.5	17.5	2.4
14–20 January 2016[16]	20.7	9.1	7.7	7.7	9.6	3.6	0.2	5.9	1.4	0.6	11.8	18.5	3.2
11–19 February 2016[17]	23.0	9.9	6.8	7.4	8.7	3.6	0.7	7.1	2.5	0.8	10.9	16.5	2.1
8–13 March 2016[18]	21.2	10.2	7.9	7.7	10.4	3.2	0.3	7.1	2.3	0.5	11.3	18.1	1.8
6–15 April 2016[19]	15.7	8.0	7.7	8.4	9.6	2.5	0.8	11.1	1.8	0.8	12.1	19.5	2.0
Polls by "Spinter tyrimai" for Delfi.lt
16–23 November 2015[20]	22.4	10.6	7.0	9.1	14.6	3.5	-	5.6	2.0	2.3	14.6	8.3	-
12–18 December 2015[21]	23.0	9.5	7.0	8.5	13.5	4.0	-	5.5	1.8	3.0	16.5	7.7	-
20–27 January 2016[22]	20.9	9.9	7.4	8.6	13.0	4.0	-	6.8	2.2	1.8	25.4		-
19–27 February 2016[23]	19.6	10.5	7.0	7.4	14.2	4.8	-	6.6	2.0	1.6	15.4	10.9
15–25 March 2016[24]	18.8	10.6	5.9	9.0	15.0	4.5	-	8.2	1.7	2.3	14.4	9.6

Election campaign

Announcement

On 7 April 2016 the President of Lithuania, Dalia Grybauskaitė, officially announced 9 October 2016 as the election date. The announcement, which came into effect on 9 April 2016, launched the election campaign, allowing the potential participants to register for the elections, raise funds and campaign in public.^[25]

Campaign financing

In January 2016, the Central Electoral Commission announced the spending limits for political campaigns in 2016. A party participating in the elections in the nationwide constituency could spend a total of 770 thousand euros on the campaign. Participants in the election races in single-seat constituencies could spend between 18 and 22 thousand euros, depending on the size of the constituency. As a result, a political party with candidates in every single seat constituency could spend just over 2.2 million euros on its election campaign.^[26]

Only citizens of Lithuania can contribute financially to the election campaigns. Each citizen can contribute up to 7,570 euros to a candidate, as long as their total contributions during the year do not exceed 10% of their stated annual income. A candidate can contribute up to 15,140 euros to their own election campaign.^[27]

References

1. "2016 m. spalio 9 d. Lietuvos Respublikos Seimo rinkimų organizavimo grafikas" [Schedule for the organization of the 9 October 2016 elections to the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania] (PDF) (in Lithuanian). Central Elections Commission. Retrieved 13 April 2016.
2. "Leftward lurch". The Economist. 3 November 2012. Retrieved 13 April 2016.
3. "Vyriausybe apsivalė, V. Tomaševskio partija - už borto" [The government has cleaned up, the party of V. Tomaševski is overboard] (in Lithuanian). Lietuvos Rytas. August 26, 2014. Retrieved July 31, 2015.
4. "Prieš ministrų skandalus Vyriausybės reitingai šoktelėjo iki aukščiausių istorijoje" [Before the ministerial scandals, the Government rating shot up to the highest in history] (in Lithuanian). Alfa.lt. ELTA. 5 February 2016. Retrieved 13 April 2016.
5. "Algirdo Butkevičiaus reitingai smigo žemyn" [Ratings of Algirdas Butkevičius went down] (in Lithuanian). Vakarų Ekspresas. BNS. 19 March 2016. Retrieved 13 April 2016.
6. "Grybauskaite takes over Butkevicius in popularity polls". The Baltic Times. BNS. 21 March 2016. Retrieved 13 April 2016.
7. "Release of Tapped Calls Embroils Lithuania’s Government in Controversy". Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project. 2 March 2016. Retrieved 13 April 2016.
8. "Law on Elections to the Seimas". Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania. 14 May 2015. Retrieved 31 July 2015.
9. "Konstitucinis Teismas R. Paksui vilties nesuteikė" [The constitutional court did not give R. Paksas hope]. Delfi.lt (in Lithuanian). 20 March 2014. Retrieved 31 July 2015.
10. "Rinkėjų paskirstymas po apygardas prieštarauja Konstitucijai" [Distribution of voters across constituencies is unconstitutional]. Delfi.lt (in Lithuanian). 20 October 2015. Retrieved 2 December 2015.
11. "Perbraižytos apygardos verčia partijas keisti rinkimų planus" [Changes to constituency borders force parties to change plans]. Delfi.lt (in Lithuanian). 18 December 2015. Retrieved 21 December 2015.
12. "Two new electoral districts to be created in Vilnius". European Foundation of Human Rights. 30 November 2016. Retrieved 13 April 2016.
13. "Artėjantys Seimo rinkimai apsieis be drastiškų korekcijų" [Upcoming elections to the Seimas will do without drastic changes]. Delfi.lt (in Lithuanian). 28 October 2015. Retrieved 2 December 2015.
14. "Piliečiai neskuba kalti prie kryžiaus ketvirčiuojamų politikų" [Citizens are in no hurry to crucify under-fire politicians]. lrytas.lt (in Lithuanian). 22 November 2015. Retrieved 2 December 2015.
15. "Už kurią partiją Jūs balsuotumėte rinkimuose į Seimą, jeigu rinkimai vyktų kitą sekmadienį?" [Which party would you vote for in the elections to Seimas, if they took place next Sunday]. vilmorus.lt (in Lithuanian). Archived from the original on 28 January 2016. Retrieved 6 January 2016.
16. "Už kurią partiją Jūs balsuotumėte rinkimuose į Seimą, jeigu rinkimai vyktų kitą sekmadienį?" [Which party would you vote for in the elections to Seimas, if they took place next Sunday]. vilmorus.lt (in Lithuanian). Archived from the original on 1 February 2016. Retrieved 1 February 2016.
17. "Socialdemokratai nesunaikinami, bet D. Grybauskaitės populiarumas – žemyn" [Social democrats are indestructible, but the popularity of D. Grybauskaitė is down]. delfi.lt (in Lithuanian). 27 February 2016. Retrieved 1 March 2016.
18. "Skandalai labiausiai aptaškė K. Trečioką, kliuvo ir premjerui" [Scandals have stained K. Trečiokas, also touched the Prime Minister]. lrtytas.lt (in Lithuanian). 19 March 2016. Retrieved 21 March 2016.
19. "Politikos padangėje – žali debesys virš socialdemokratų" [In the political sky - green clouds over social democrats]. lrtytas.lt (in Lithuanian). 23 April 2016. Retrieved 26 April 2016.
20. "Naujausi partijų reitingai: taip gali likti iki pat rinkimų" [The most recent party ratings: they can stay unchanged until the elections]. delfi.lt (in Lithuanian). 14 December 2015. Retrieved 14 December 2015.
21. "Partijų reitingai: socialdemokratų sėkmę gali aptemdyti nemalonūs šešėliai" [Party ratings: the success of the Social Democrats may be darkened by unpleasant shadows]. delfi.lt (in Lithuanian). 11 January 2016. Retrieved 13 January 2016.
22. "Skandalų sūkuryje: skelbiami naujausi reitingai" [In the whirlwind of scandals: the most recent ratings are announced]. delfi.lt (in Lithuanian). 15 February 2016. Retrieved 15 February 2016.
23. "Partijų reitinguose išnyra juodasis arkliukas" [A dark horse emerges in the party ratings]. delfi.lt (in Lithuanian). 21 March 2016. Retrieved 21 March 2016.
24. "A. Butkevičius ir socialdemokratai iššvaistė brangiausią turtą" [A. Butkevičius and the social democrats squandered the most valuable asset]. delfi.lt (in Lithuanian). 18 April 2016. Retrieved 26 April 2016.
25. "Prezidentė paskelbė rinkimų datą" [The President announced the election date] (in Lithuanian). Delfi.lt. BNS. 7 April 2016. Retrieved 13 April 2016.
26. "Nustatyti politinės kampanijos išlaidų limitai 2016 metams" [The political campaign spending limits for 2016 have been set]. vrk.lt (in Lithuanian). Central Electoral Commission. 3 January 2016. Retrieved 13 April 2016.
27. "Aukos" [Contributions]. vrk.lt (in Lithuanian). Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 13 April 2016.