Lower Saxony state election, 2013

Lower Saxony state election, 2013

20 January 2013[1]

All 137 seats in the Landtag of Lower Saxony 69 seats needed for a majority   First party Second party Third party   Leader David McAllister Stephan Weil Anja Piel and Stefan Wenzel Party CDU SPD Green Last election 68 seats, 42.5% 48 seats, 30.3% 12 seats, 8.0% Seats before 68 48 12 Seats won 54 49 20 Seat change 14 1 8 Popular vote 1,287,730 1,165,538 489,572 Percentage 36.0% 32.6% 13.7% Swing 6.5% 2.3% 5.7%   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Stefan Birkner Manfred Sohn Party FDP Left Last election 13 seats, 8.2% 11 seats, 7.1% Seats before 13 11 Seats won 14 0 Seat change 1 11 Popular vote 354,971 112,215 Percentage 9.9% 3.1% Swing 1.7% 4.0%

First votes winners in the electoral districts   CDU   SPD

Ministerpräsident before election David McAllister CDU Ministepräsident-designate Stephan Weil SPD

A state election was held in Lower Saxony on 20 January 2013 to elect the 137 members of the Landtag.

The CDU-led government of Minister-President David McAllister sought to retain power in the assembly, but fell one seat short of a majority. They were replaced by an SPD-Green coalition, which has a one-seat majority.^[2]

Background

In the regional elections on 27 January 2008, the CDU-FDP coalition was reelected under Prime Minister Christian Wulff. The SPD under Wolfgang Jüttner lost more than three percentage points to make it the SPD's worst ever result in Lower Saxony. The FDP retained their status as the third strongest party over the Greens although only by 0.2% of the vote. The Left achieved 7.1 percent of the vote, crossing the minimum electoral threshold and earning representation for the first time in the state legislature. Before the election the SPD & Greens announced their plan to govern together and campaign together. The CDU acted independently of the FDP during the campaign but sought to continue the CDU-FDP coalition after the election. If a CDU-FDP coalition was unable to be formed, the CDU said the SPD would be their second choice; however the SPD itself rejected the idea of a grand coalition with the CDU. The Left and The Pirates remained outside of possible coalition talks and failed to win seats in the election.^[2]

Polls

Pollster	Date	CDU	SPD	FDP	Greens	The Left	Pirates	Others
Exit Poll	20.01.2013	36.8%	32.9%	9.6%	13.5%	<5 %	<5 %	<5 %
GMS	17.01.2013	41%	33%	5%	13%	3%	3%	2%
INFO GmbH	12.01.2013	38%	31.5%	4.5%	14.5%	6%	3%	2.5%
Infratest dimap	10.01.2013	40%	33%	5%	13%	3%	3%	3%
GMS	10.01.2013	41%	33%	5%	13%	3%	3%	2%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	10.01.2013	39%	33%	5%	13%	3%	3%	4%
Infratest dimap	03.01.2013	40%	34%	4%	13%	3%	3%	3%
INFO GmbH	22.12.2012	38.5%	33%	3.5%	12.5%	4%	4.5%	–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	06.12.2012	39%	32%	4%	13%	4%	4%	4%
Infratest dimap	06.12.2012	40%	33%	3%	15%	3%	3%	3%
GMS	04.12.2012	41%	32%	4%	13%	3%	4%	3%
Infratest dimap	08.11.2012	41%	34%	3%	13%	3%	3%	3%
Infratest dimap	20.09.2012	37%	33%	3%	15%	4%	4%	4%
GMS	20.09.2012	38%	33%	5%	13%	5%	3%	3%
Forsa[3]	24.07.2012	38%	33%	4%	11%	4%	7%	3%
YouGov	19.07.2012	31%	35%	4%	14%	5%	7%	4%
Infratest dimap[4]	16.05.2012	32%	36%	4%	13%	3%	8%	4%
GMS[5]	16.05.2012	37%	33%	3%	13%	3%	9%	2%
Infratest dimap[6]	25.01.2012	36%	32%	3%	17%	5%	4%	3%
GMS[7]	20.01.2012	37%	33%	3%	18%	3%	3%	3%

Results

Leaders of the elected parties during election night (l to r): Stefan Birkner, David McAllister, Stephan Weil and Stefan Wenzel

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 Summary of the 20 January 2013 Landtag of Lower Saxony elections results

Party		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	+/–	Seats	+/–
	Christian Democratic Union Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands - CDU	1,287,730	36.0%	-6.5%	54	-14
	Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands - SPD	1,165,538	32.6%	+2.3%	49	+1
	Alliance '90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen	489,572	13.7%	+5.7 %	20	+8
	Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei – FDP	354,971	9.9%	+1.7%	14	+1
	Left Die Linke	112,215	3.1%	-4.0%	0	-11
	Other parties	165,235	4.7%	+0.8%
Valid votes		3,575,261	98.7%	0.2%
Invalid votes		45,733	1.3%	0.2%
Totals and voter turnout		3,620,994	59.4%	2.3%	137	15
Electorate		6,100,218	100.00	—
Source: Landeswahlleiterin Niedersachsen

Most polls taken in early 2012 showed a SPD-Green majority. However, in the run up to the election, polls tightened with the CDU-FDP coalition virtually neck and neck with the SPD-Green coalition. Polling suggested that the FDP's vote could be very close to 5%, which led to some officials in the CDU to suggest tactically voting FDP to ensure it met the minimum threshold, thus ensuring the continuation of the CDU-FDP.^[2]

Sources

1. Donahue, Patrick (9 January 2013). "Merkel’s Party Climbs in Poll as FDP Coalition Partner Plunges". Bloomberg. Retrieved 9 January 2013.
2. The vincible chancellor, The Economist, 26 January 2013
3. Umfrage: CDU stärkste Kraft in Niedersachsen
4. Wahlumfragen im Auftrag des NDR
5. Wahlumfragen zur Landtagswahl im Niedersachsen.
6. Wahlumfragen zur Landtagswahl im Niedersachsen
7. Die politische Stimmung in Niedersachsen April 2012