Next Belgian federal election

All 150 seats in the Chamber of Representatives 76 seats needed for a majority

	First party	Second party	Third party

Leader	Bart De Wever	Elio Di Rupo	Charles Michel
Party	N-VA	PS	MR
Leader since	2004	1999	2011
Leader's seat	Antwerp	Hainaut	Walloon Brabant
Last election	33 seats, 20.36%	23 seats, 11.67%	20 seats, 9.64%

	Fourth party	Fifth party	Sixth party

Leader	Wouter Beke	Gwendolyn Rutten	John Crombez
Party	CD&V	Open Vld	sp.a
Leader since	2010	2012	2015
Leader's seat	Limburg	Flemish Brabant	West Flanders
Last election	18 seats, 10.85%	14 seats, 9.78%	13 seats, 8.83%

Federal Government before election

Michel Government

Elected Federal Government

The next Belgian federal election will take place on the same day as the 2019 European Parliament elections and the 2019 Belgian regional elections,^[1] unless snap elections are called.^[2] This arrangement is new since the 2011–14 state form.

In the election, all 150 members of the Chamber of Representatives will be elected in eleven multi-member constituencies.

Background

Main articles: 2014 Belgian government formation and Michel Government

Following the 2014 elections, a centre-right government consisting of N-VA, CD&V, Open Vld and MR was formed, led by Prime Minister Charles Michel (MR). The government coalition is unique in several aspects: the N-VA participates for the first time, the MR is the only French-speaking party, and the French-speaking Socialist Party is not part of the government for the first time in 25 years.

Electoral system

The 150 members of the Chamber of Representatives will be elected in 11 multi-member constituencies with between 4 and 24 seats. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method, with an electoral threshold of 5% per constituency.^[3]

Polls

The results of the opinion polls conducted on a nation-wide basis are usually split into separate numbers for the three Belgian regions. They are therefore split across the tables in the sections below, but seat projections for the Belgian Chamber are presented together.

Flanders

The graph and the table below show the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Flemish Region, and for polls conducted nation-wide the part of the results related to the Flemish Region. In the graph, the squares mark the election results, the stars the individual opinion poll results, and the trend line the floating average for the opinion poll results with a window of plus/minus three months.

Date(s) conducted	Polling firm	Newspaper	Sample size	N-VA	CD&V	Open Vld	sp.a	Groen	Vlaams Belang	PVDA	Others	Lead	Government parties (N-VA, CD&V, Open Vld)	Parliamentary opposition parties (sp.a, Groen, Vlaams Belang)	Lead
Date(s) conducted	Polling firm	Newspaper	Sample size								Others	Lead			Lead
31 March–4 April	Dedicated	RTBf / La Libre Belgique^[4]^[5]	975	25.6%	18.3%	13.3%	14.4%	10.2%	12.4%			7.3%	57.2%	37.0%	20.2%
22 February–9 March 2016	TNS Media	VRT / De Standaard^[6]	1,005	27.3%	19.1%	14.1%	14.7%	11.6%	8.1%	4.0%		8.2%	60.5%	34.4%	26.1%
15–20 January 2016	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws^[7]	1,043	28.5%	16.0%	12.5%	15.2%	10.3%	11.6%	3.7%		12.5%	57.0%	37.1%	19.9%
3–7 December 2015	Dedicated	RTBf / La Libre Belgique^[8]	990	29.2%	15.0%	12.6%	14.1%	11.6%	11.9%			14.2%	56.8%	37.6%	19.2%
28 September–4 October 2015	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws^[9]	1,030	28.8%	17.8%	12.5%	14.5%	9.0%	10.5%	4.1%		11.0%	59.1%	34.0%	25.1%
22 September–2 October 2015	TNS Media	VRT / De Standaard^[10]	1,019	31.1%	18.4%	14.9%	13.8%	9.9%	7.0%	3.8%		12.7%	64.4%	30.7%	33.7%
9–14 September 2015	Dedicated	RTBf / La Libre Belgique^[11]	745	27.5%	16.0%	14.4%	16.2%	10.1%	9.7%	3.8%		11.3%	57.9%	36.0%	21.9%
12–18 May 2015	Dedicated	RTBf / La Libre Belgique^[11]	761	28.1%	17.2%	15.4%	15.6%	10.0%	7.9%	3.3%		10.9%	60.7%	33.5%	27.2%
20 April–3 May 2015	TNS Media	VRT / De Standaard	1,032	28.5%	21.2%	16.1%	14.3%	11.6%	5.8%	1.4%		7.3%	65.8%	31.7%	34.1%
20–24 April 2015	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws	963	28.3%	15.8%	14.0%	15.6%	10.7%	8.0%	3.2%		12.5%	58.1%	34.3%	23.8%
5–9 March 2015	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique^[12]	691	28.8%	16.7%	15.4%	16.4%	9.6%	7.4%	3.4%	2.3%	12.1%	60.9%	33.4%	27.5%
23–28 January 2015	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws^[13]	1,035	30.2%	17.1%	14.9%	14.7%	10.2%	7.6%	3.6%		13.1%	62.2%	32.5%	29.7%
5–11 January 2015	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws^[13]	1,043	27.8%	18.3%	14.3%	15.7%	10.4%	6.8%	3.8%		9.5%	60.4%	32.9%	27.5%
4–5 December 2014	AQ Rate	Het Laatste Nieuws	794	28%	17%	12%	16%	14%	6%	2%		11%	57%	36%	21%
27 November–1 December 2014	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique^[12]	773	30.9%	18.2%	13.3%	15.2%	10.2%	5.7%	4.0%	2.5%	12.7%	62.4%	31.1%	31.3%
9–10 October 2014	AQ Rate	Het Laatste Nieuws	801	30%	14%	16%	18%	9%	8%	3%		12%	60%	35%	25%
22 September–3 October 2014	TNS Media	De Standaard / VRT	1,023	29.9%	20.0%	14.4%	15.7%	9.8%	6.5%	3.2%		9.9%	64.3%	32.0%	32.3%
5–9 September 2014	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique^[12]	792	31.9%	17.7%	15.4%	15.0%	9.6%	5.5%	3.1%	1.8%	14.2%	65.0%	30.1%	34.9%
July 2014	AQ Rate	Het Laatste Nieuws	880	32.9%	17.7%	15.4%	14.6%	9.0%	5.8%	3.1%		15.2%	66.0%	29.4%	36.6%
June 2014	AQ Rate	Het Laatste Nieuws		38.4%	15.5%	13.8%	13.1%	7.8%	5.2%	3.3%		22.9%	67.7%	26.1%	41.6%
25 May 2014	Federal election			32.4%	18.6%	15.5%	14.0%	8.6%	5.8%	2.8%	2.2%	13.9%	66.5%	28.4%	38.1%

Wallonia

The graph and the table below show the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Walloon Region, and for polls conducted nation-wide the part of the results related to the Walloon Region. In the graph, the squares mark the election results, the stars the individual opinion poll results, and the trend line the floating average for the opinion poll results with a window of plus/minus three months.

Date(s) conducted	Polling firm	Newspaper	Sample size	PS	MR	cdH	Ecolo	PTB	PP	FDF	Others	Lead	Government parties (MR)	Parliamentary opposition parties (PS, cdH, Ecolo, PTB, PP, FDF)	Lead
Date(s) conducted	Polling firm	Newspaper	Sample size								Others	Lead			Lead
31 March–4 April 2016	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique^[4]^[5]	967	26.4%	23.9%	12.8%	11.1%	10.4%	5.5%	2.4%		2.5%	23.9%	68.6%	44.7%
15–20 January 2016	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws^[7]	1,034	26.7%	23.1%	11.1%	9.2%	8.8%	5.2%	3.4%		3.6%	23.1%	64.4%	41.3%
3–7 December 2015	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique^[8]	910	27.2%	24.7%	13.5%	9.5%	10.3%	5.4%	3.2%		2.5%	24.7%	69.1%	44.4%
28 September–4 October 2015	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws^[9]	1,017	26.0%	23.3%	13.3%	9.0%	8.5%	4.6%	1.7%		2.7%	23.3%	63.1%	39.8%
9–14 September 2015	Dedicated	RTBf / La Libre Belgique^[11]	643	29.7%	24.2%	13.5%	9.2%	9.7%	4.1%	2.6%		3.5%	24.2%	68.8%	44.6%
12–18 May 2015	Dedicated	RTBf / La Libre Belgique^[11]	680	29.7%	25.5%	12.8%	8.9%	9.0%	4.6%	2.9%		4.2%	25.5%	67.9%	42.4%
20–24 April 2015	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws	952	25.8%	26.1%	13.1%	9.1%	8.5%	5.0%	2.2%		0.3%	26.1%	63.7%	37.6%
5–9 March 2015	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique^[12]	678	28.7%	25.2%	14.3%	8.3%	8.3%	3.5%	2.9%	8.8%	3.5%	25.2%	66.0%	40.8%
23–28 January 2015	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws^[13]	1,042	27.4%	26.0%	13.9%	8.4%	7.3%	4.7%	2.2%		1.4%	26.0%	63.9%	37.9%
5–11 January 2015	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws^[13]	1,053	30.1%	25.3%	12.6%	7.8%	7.7%	3.5%	2.1%		4.8%	25.3%	63.8%	38.5%
27 November–1 December 2014	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique^[12]	655	30.1%	23.9%	13.4%	8.1%	7.6%	4.9%	2.7%		6.2%	23.9%	67.7%	43.8%
September 2014	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique^[12]	676	31.0%	26.6%	12.7%	8.5%	8.1%	5.0%	1.8%	6.3%	4.4%	26.6%	67.1%	40.5%
25 May 2014	Federal election			32.0%	25.8%	14.0%	8.2%	5.5%	4.5%	2.4%	7.6%	6.2%	25.8%	66.6%	40.8%

Brussels

The table below shows the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Brussels Region, and for polls conducted nation-wide the part of the results related to the Brussels Region.

Date(s) conducted	Polling firm	Newspaper	Sample size	PS	MR	FDF	Ecolo	cdH	PTB-PVDA	N-VA	Open Vld	sp.a	PP	CD&V	Groen	Vlaams Belang	Others	Lead	Government parties (N-VA, CD&V, Open Vld, MR)	Parliamentary opposition parties (sp.a, Groen, Vlaams Belang, PS, cdH, Ecolo, PTB, PP, FDF)	Lead
Date(s) conducted	Polling firm	Newspaper	Sample size														Others	Lead			Lead
31 March–4 April 2016	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique^[4]^[5]	918	21.1%	20.2%	11.1%	10.2%	8.8%	6.1%	4.0%	2.6%		2.8%	1.9%	1.2%	2.3%		0.9%	28.7%	63.6%	34.9%
15–20 January 2016	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws^[7]	537
October 2015	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws
5–9 March 2015	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique^[12]	907
November 2014	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique^[12]
September 2014	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique^[12]		23.9%	23.7%	11.9%	11.5%	10.4%	3.7%	2.9%	3.3%	1.4%	1.4%	2.2%	0.9%	1.2%		0.2%	32.1%	66.3%	34.2%
25 May 2014	Federal election			25.6%	21.9%	10.8%	10.5%	9.4%	4.0%	2.6%	2.6%	2.0%	1.8%	1.7%		1.1%		3.7%	28.8%	65.2%	36.4%

Seat Projections

The table below shows seat projections for the Belgian Chamber when given by the reporting newspaper or polling firm.

76 seats needed for majority
Date(s) conducted	Polling firm	Newspaper	N-VA	CD&V	Open Vld	MR	sp.a	Groen	Vlaams Belang	PVDA	PS	cdH	Ecolo	PTB	PP	FDF	Others	Lead	Government parties (N-VA, CD&V, Open Vld, MR)	Parliamentary opposition parties (sp.a, Groen, Vlaams Belang, PS, cdH, Ecolo, PTB, PP, FDF)	Lead
Date(s) conducted	Polling firm	Newspaper															Others	Lead			Lead
15–20 January 2016	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws^[7]	28	14	12	19	14	9	9	1	21	8	7	5	1	2	0	7	73	77	4
25 May 2014	Federal election		33	18	14	20	13	6	3	0	23	9	6	2	1	2	0	10	85	65	20

References

Elections and referendums in Belgium (list)

General/federal elections	1830 1831 1833 1835 1837 1839 1841 1843 1845 1847 1848 1850 1851 1852 1854 1855 1856 1857 1859 1861 1863 1864 1866 1867 1868 1870 (Jun) 1870 (Aug) 1872 1874 1876 1878 1880 1882 1884 1886 1888 1890 1892 1894 1896 1898 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1919 1921 1925 1929 1932 1936 1939 1946 1949 1950 1954 1958 1961 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1978 1981 1985 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2010 2014 Next

Regional elections	1974 1977 1978 1981 1986 1989 1990 1995 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

Provincial elections	1949 1950 1954 1958 1961 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1978 1981 1985 1987 1991 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018

Municipal elections	1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012 2018

European elections	1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

Referendums	1950

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