Next Irish general election

Next Irish general election

On or before 12 April 2021

157 of 158 seats in Dáil Éireann 79 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls   Leader Enda Kenny Micheál Martin Gerry Adams Party Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Leader since 2 June 2002 26 January 2011 13 November 1983[nb 1] Leader's seat Mayo Cork South–Central Louth Last election 50 seats, 25.5% 44 seats, 24.3% 23 seats, 13.8% Current seats 50[n 1] 43[n 2] 23 Seats needed 29 35 56   Leader Joan Burton — — Party Labour Party AAA–PBP Independents 4 Change Leader since 4 July 2014 — — Leader's seat Dublin West — — Last election 7 seats, 6.6% 6 seats, 3.9% 4 seats, 1.5% Current seats 7 6 4 Seats needed 72 73 75   Leader Stephen Donnelly Catherine Murphy Róisín Shortall Eamon Ryan Party Social Democrats Green Party Leader since 15 July 2015 27 May 2011 Leader's seat Wicklow Kildare North Dublin North-West Dublin Bay South Last election 3 seats, 3.0% 2 seats, 2.7% Current seats 3 2 Seats needed 76 77

Incumbent Taoiseach Enda Kenny Fine Gael

The next Irish general election will be held in Ireland on or before Monday, 12 April 2021. The election will be called following the dissolution of the 32nd Dáil by the President, at the request of the Taoiseach. At stake will be 157 of 158 seats in the Dáil Éireann, the Ceann Comhairle being re-elected automatically unless he opts to retire from the Dáil.

After the February 2016 election resulted in a hung parliament, the possibility of a snap election being held before the end of the five-year term of the Dáil remains high. The only feasible two-party agreement, mathematically, to command a majority would involve a grand coalition between historically opposing parties Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, both of which ruled out such a development during the election campaign.

As a result of this impasse a Taoiseach with a mandate to form a government was not elected upon the Dáil's first meeting, resulting in Enda Kenny's formal resignation from the office of Taoiseach and his assumption of caretaker duties.^[1][2][3]

Electoral system

The 158 members of the Dáil will be elected in 40 multi-member constituencies, each with between three and five seats, using the single transferable vote system in which voters rank candidates on their ballot papers. When the ballot papers are counted, an electoral quota is created by dividing the number of valid votes by the number of seats, plus one.

Any candidate receiving a number of votes exceeding the quota is elected. If fewer candidates reach the quota than the number of seats to be filled, the last-placed candidate is removed from the count and the second or subsequent preferences on those ballot papers are redistributed until a candidate is elected. If such a candidate now has more votes than the quota, their surplus is given to other candidates in order of ranking on the ballot papers.

This is repeated until sufficient candidates have passed the quota to fill the available seats ^[4] or where a seat remains to be filled in a constituency and no candidate is capable of achieving a quota as there is nobody left to eliminate for a distribution then the highest place candidate without a quota is deemed elected at that point.

Constituency Commission 2016–17

A Constituency Commission will convene in the middle of 2016 as per the provisions of the Electoral Act 1997, to redraw constituency boundaries after publication of initial population data from Census 2016 in June 2016. Until such time as this commission reports in early 2017 the number of seats will continue to be 158 in 40 constituencies but thereafter the number of seats contested in any future election will increase in line with population increases since 2011 and will be slightly over 160 after the report date.

The commission has some discretion but is constitutionally bound to allow no more than a 30,000 population ratio per elected member and is by convention constrained not to breach 'traditional' county boundaries save in rare cases, even if this leads to slight overrepresentation.^[5][6]

Background

Latest possible date

The next general election cannot be held later than Monday 12 April 2021. This date is determined as follows:

Law	Requirement	Comments
Constitution: Section 16.5[7]	The same Dáil Éireann shall not continue for a longer period than seven years from the date of its first meeting: a shorter period may be fixed by law.	A shorter period is fixed by law through the Electoral Act, 1992.
Electoral Act, 1992: Section 33[8]	The same Dáil shall not continue for a longer period than five years from the date of its first meeting.	The Dáil resulting from the 2016 election first met on 10 March 2016. Five years after 10 March 2016 is 10 March 2021.
Electoral Act, 1992: Section 96[9]	(1) A poll at a Dáil election— (a) shall be taken on such day as shall be appointed by the Minister by order, being a day which (disregarding any excluded day) is not earlier than the seventeenth day or later than the twenty-fifth day next following the day on which the writ or writs for the election is or are issued.	25 days after 10 March 2021, disregarding excluded days, is 12 April 2021. Excluded days are: Sundays – 14, 21, 28 March and 4 April Public holidays – 17 March and 5 April Good Friday – 2 April
Electoral Act, 1992: Section 2[10]	(1) In this Act— “excluded day” means a day which is a Sunday, Good Friday or a day which is declared to be a public holiday by the Holidays (Employees) Act, 1973 , or a day which by virtue of a statute or proclamation is a public holiday;

Opinion polls

Last Date of Polling	Polling Firm/Source/Link	Sample Size	FG	FF	SF	Lab	AAA-PBP	SD	GP	RI	IA	Others
13 April 2016	Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 1]	926	23	26	17	4	4	2	3	1	8	12
10 March 2016	Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 2][p 3]	1,006	27	25	15	4	4	5	3	2	5	9
26 February 2016	General election		25.5	24.3	13.8	6.6	3.9	3.0	2.7	2.2	4.2	13.7

Footnotes

1. Gerry Adams became National President of Sinn Féin on 13 November 1983, but only became Parliamentary Leader of Sinn Féin once elected to the Dáil for the first time in February 2011. Prior to that the parliamentary leader in the Dáil, 1997=2011 was Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin.

1. The 50 seats for Fine Gael includes the outgoing Ceann Comhairle Seán Barrett, elected in 2011 for Fine Gael, who was returned automatically.
2. Seán Ó Fearghaíl was elected as Ceann Comhairle, and as is no longer counted as a Fianna Fáil TD.

Opinion poll sources

1. "Fianna Fáil overtakes Fine Gael in latest opinion poll". The Sunday Times. 2016-04-16. Retrieved 2016-04-16.
2. "Another general election would produce no major gains for FF or FG". The Sunday Business Post. 2016-03-12. Retrieved 2016-03-12.
3. "General Election Opinion Poll" (PDF). The Sunday Business Post. 2016-03-12. Retrieved 2016-03-15.

References

1. Gwynn Morgan, Professor David (8 March 2016). "What Exactly is a Caretaker Taoiseach?". The Irish Times. Retrieved 14 March 2016.
2. "Irish election: Dáil fails to elect new taoiseach". BBC News. 2016-03-10.
3. "Enda Kenny resigns as Irish prime minister and becomes acting leader". BBC News. 2016-03-11.
4. Electoral system IPU
5. "Introduction and summary of recommendations" (PDF). Constituency Commission 2011. Retrieved 2016-03-12.
6. "Dáil constituencies where no change is recommended" (PDF). Constituency Commission 2011. Retrieved 2016-03-12.
7. "Constitution of Ireland; The National Parliament. Dáil Éireann.". irishstatutebook.ie. Retrieved 2016-03-13.
8. "Electoral Act, 1992; Part VI. Duration and Membership of Dáil.". irishstatutebook.ie. Retrieved 2016-03-13.
9. "Electoral Act, 1992; Part XVII. The Poll.". irishstatutebook.ie. Retrieved 2016-03-13.
10. "Electoral Act, 1992; Part I. General.". irishstatutebook.ie. Retrieved 2016-03-13.