Next New Democratic Party leadership election

New Democratic Party leadership election, TBD

Resigning leader	Thomas Mulcair

The eighth election for the leadership of the New Democratic Party (NDP) was triggered when leader Thomas Mulcair lost a vote on a leadership review at the New Democratic Party's federal convention held in Edmonton, Alberta on April 10, 2016. 52% of delegates voted in favour of holding a new leadership election, compared to 48% who voted for Mulcair's leadership to continue. Under the party's constitution, the leadership election was to be held by April 2017; however, the delegates present passed a motion to give the party up to 24 months to organize a leadership election.^[1][2] Mulcair has said he will step down once a replacement is elected.

Background

The result at the 2016 convention is the first time a leader of any Canadian federal political party has failed to receive at least 50% in a leadership review vote.^[2] In the months since the 2015 federal election, Mulcair's leadership had been a point of conflict within the party because of the election campaign, in which the NDP fell to third place from the Official Opposition it gained in the 2011 election. The New Democrats had led public opinion polls since May 2015 and appeared to be poised to form a majority government for the first time in their history. However, they fell back behind the Liberals and Conservatives in the last month. The election thus resulted in a Liberal majority government. The party lost more than half of its seats and fell to third place. Mulcair's leadership faced criticism following the election, particularly due to his moderate platform that the party was running on. In contrast, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau had promised to run a budget deficit in order to fund stimulus programs and higher social spending, a position which was perceived as allowing the Liberals to outflank the NDP.^[3][4]

Election rules

Under rules set out in the party's constitution, the leadership election is one member, one vote and open to all party members voting in a combination of exhaustive ballot and instant-runoff voting. Votes mailed in advance are cast by instant-runoff voting, but votes on election day, either at the leadership convention or online, are for one round only. Candidates can withdraw before being formally eliminated and release preferences to lower down candidates who stay in. Members are able to vote in person at the convention, by mail, or online.^[5]

Timeline

• October 19, 2015 - federal election results in the NDP under Thomas Mulcair winning 44 seats and falling to third place in the House of Commons, down from 95 seats and Official Opposition status prior to the election.
• April 10, 2016 - At the NDP federal convention held in Edmonton, Alberta, a leadership review resolution passes with the support of 52% of delegates, requiring a new leadership election to be held. Mulcair announces that he will not be a candidate but will remain as leader until the leadership election is held. Delegates pass an emergency motion extending the deadline for a leadership election to two years from one year.^[2]
• May 15, 2016 - NDP Federal Council meets to discuss a schedule and logistics for the leadership election.^[6][7]
• April 10, 2018 - Last date at which a leadership election can be held.^[6]

Prospective candidates

The following people have been named as potential leadership candidates by one or more media outlets:

• Charlie Angus – MP for Timmins—James Bay (2004–present).^[6]
• Niki Ashton – MP for Churchill—Keewatinook Aski (2015–present) and Churchill (2008–2015). Placed seventh in the 2012 leadership race.^[8][9][10]
• Daniel Blaikie – MP for Elmwood—Transcona (2015–present).^[11]
• Rebecca Blaikie – President of the NDP (2011–2016), Treasurer of the NDP (2009–2011).^[11]
• Alexandre Boulerice – MP for Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie (2011–present) and NDP Quebec lieutenant.^[2][9]
• Ruth Ellen Brosseau – MP for Berthier-Maskinongé (2011–present)^[12]
• Guy Caron – MP for Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques (2011–present).^[9]
• Robert Chisholm – MP for Dartmouth—Cole Harbour (2011–2015), Leader of the Nova Scotia New Democratic Party (1996–2000), Leader of the Opposition in Nova Scotia (1998–1999). Ran in the 2012 leadership race though withdrew before the vote.^[11]
• Olivia Chow – MP for Trinity—Spadina (2006–2014), widow of former leader Jack Layton. Placed third in the 2014 Toronto mayoral election.^[11][13]
• Nathan Cullen – MP for Skeena—Bulkley Valley (2004–present). Placed third in the 2012 leadership race.^[9][14]
• Paul Dewar – MP for Ottawa Centre (2006–2015). Placed fifth in the 2012 leadership race.^[11][15]
• Gary Doer – Canadian Ambassador to the United States (2009–2016), Premier of Manitoba (1999–2009), Leader of the Manitoba New Democratic Party (1988–2009).^[11]
• Howard Hampton — Leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party (1996—2009).^[7]
• Peter Julian – MP for New Westminster—Burnaby (2015–present) and Burnaby–New Westminster (2004–2015)^[9][10]
• Mike Layton – Toronto City Councillor (2010–present), son of former leader Jack Layton^[9]
• Peggy Nash – Former MP for Parkdale—High Park (2006–2008, 2011–2015). Placed fourth in the 2012 leadership race.^[9]
• Romeo Saganash – MP for Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou (2011–present). Ran in the 2012 leadership race though withdrew before the vote.^[11]
• Jagmeet Singh – Ontario MPP for Bramalea—Gore—Malton (2011–present) and deputy leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party^[10]
• Hassan Yussuff – President of the Canadian Labour Congress (2014–present)^[10]

Declined

• Naomi Klein - author, journalist, and documentary filmmaker. Co-author of the Leap Manifesto.^[16]
• Megan Leslie – MP for Halifax (2008–2015) and NDP deputy leader (2012–2015).^{[9][10][17][18]}
• Avi Lewis – documentary filmmaker, broadcaster, and co-author of the Leap Manifesto, son of former Ontario NDP leader Stephen Lewis and grandson of former federal NDP leader David Lewis.^[9][10][16]
• Anne McGrath – Deputy Chief of Staff to Alberta Premier Rachel Notley (2015–present), National Director of the NDP (2014–2015), President of the NDP (2006–2009)^[19]
• Thomas Mulcair – Leader of the Opposition (2012–2015), Leader of the NDP (2012–present), MP for Outremont (2007–present)^[1][2][3][6]
• Rachel Notley – Premier of Alberta (2015–present), leader of the Alberta New Democratic Party (2014–present), Alberta MLA for Edmonton-Strathcona (2008–present).^[19]
• Peter Stoffer – MP for Sackville—Eastern Shore (2004–2015) and Sackville—Musquodoboit Valley—Eastern Shore (1997–2004).^[20]
• Brian Topp – Chief of Staff to Alberta Premier Rachel Notley (2015–present), President of the NDP (2011). Placed second in the 2012 leadership race.^[9][10][19]

Opinion polling

The polls below were conducted before nominations for the leadership closed and therefore include potential candidates for the leadership race.

New Democratic Party voters

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	Sample size	Margin of error	Niki Ashton	Alexandre Boulerice	Nathan Cullen	Peter Julian	Avi Lewis	Jagmeet Singh	Other/ Undeicided
Mainstreet Research	April 15, 2016	PDF	598	± 4.01%	4%	4%	17%	10%	11%	11%	Undecided 26% Someone else 17%

References

1. Wherry, Aaron (April 10, 2016). "Rejecting Mulcair, NDP delegates vote in favour of new leadership race". CBC News. Retrieved April 10, 2016.
2. Gerson, Jen (April 10, 2016). "Tom Mulcair loses NDP leadership vote as his party makes a Leap to the left". National Post. Retrieved April 10, 2016.
3. Stone, Laura; Giovanetti, Justin (April 10, 2016). "NDP seeks new direction as party moves to replace Tom Mulcair". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved April 10, 2016.
4. Bell, David (April 10, 2016). "Mulcair 'a lame duck,' says political scientist on NDP convention results". CBC News. Retrieved April 10, 2016.
5. "NDP Leadership Selection Process". Maple Leaf Web. Retrieved April 10, 2016.
6. Stone, Laura (April 11, 2016). "With Mulcair out as NDP leader, here’s what’s next for the party". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved April 11, 2016.
7. http://www.hilltimes.com/2016/05/05/ndp-fundraising-plunge-stirs-leadership-talk-under-mulcair/61128
8. Raj, Althia (April 9, 2016). "Inside Thomas Mulcair's Battle To Stay On As NDP Leader". The Huffington Post. Retrieved April 11, 2016.
9. "NDP aftermath: An early look at potential candidates to replace Tom Mulcair". CBC News. April 10, 2016. Retrieved April 11, 2016.
10. "Eight possible candidates for the NDP leadership, from an ex-deputy leader to a documentary filmmaker". National Post. April 10, 2016. Retrieved April 11, 2016.
11. Nielsen, Kevin (April 10, 2016). "Who will replace Tom Mulcair as NDP leader? It could be a crowded field". Global News. Retrieved April 11, 2016.
12. "Ruth Ellen Brosseau mulling over run for NDP leadership". CJAD. Canadian Press. Retrieved 21 April 2016.
13. Wilson, Codi (April 10, 2016). "Possible NDP leadership candidates from the GTA". CP24.com. Retrieved April 11, 2016.
14. "NDP MPs return to Ottawa after Mulcair ousted as leader". CTV News. April 11, 2016. Retrieved April 11, 2016.
15. Duggan, Kyle (28 April 2016). "Dewar ‘not considering’ leadership run, says party needs to rebuild from the bottom up". iPolitics. Retrieved 28 April 2016.
16. Gatehouse, Jonathon (April 12, 2016). "Avi Lewis on the ‘ideological battle’ over the Leap Manifesto". Maclean's. Retrieved 2016-04-13.
17. "NDP MPs divided over Mulcair's long goodbye", Ottawa Community News (Canadian Press), April 12, 2016
18. Starr, Katharine (April 13, 2016). "Megan Leslie rules out NDP leadership bid: 'I don't want it'". CBC News. Retrieved 2016-04-13.
19. Wood, James (April 11, 2016). "Notley rejects federal leadership bid as Alberta NDP slams Leap manifesto". Calgary Herald. Retrieved April 11, 2016.
20. Burke, David (April 11, 2016). "Peter Stoffer not interested in running for federal NDP leadership". CBC News. Retrieved April 11, 2016.