Next New Zealand general election

Next New Zealand general election

No later than 18 November 2017

All 120 seats (plus any overhang) in the House of Representatives 61 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls   Leader John Key Andrew Little James Shaw / Metiria Turei Party National Labour Green Leader since 2006 2014 2015 / 2009 Leader's seat Helensville List List / List Last election 60 seats, 47.04% 32 seats, 25.13% 14 seats, 10.70% Current seats 59 32 14 Seats needed 2 29 47   Leader Winston Peters Te Ururoa Flavell / Marama Fox David Seymour Party NZ First Māori ACT Leader since 1993 (party foundation) 2013 / 2014 2014 Leader's seat Northland Waiariki / List Epsom Last election 11 seats, 8.66% 2 seats, 1.32% 1 seat, 0.69% Current seats 12 2 1 Seats needed 49 59 60   Leader Peter Dunne Party United Future Leader since 2002 (party foundation) Leader's seat Ōhāriu Last election 1 seat, 0.22% Current seats 1 Seats needed 60

Incumbent Prime Minister John Key National

The next New Zealand general election will be held after the current 51st New Zealand Parliament is dissolved or expires. The current Parliament was elected on Saturday, 20 September 2014. The last possible date for the election to be held is Saturday, 18 November 2017.

Background

Election date

Unless an early election is called or the election date is set to circumvent holding a by-election, a general election is held every three years. The last election was held on Saturday, 20 September 2014.^[1]

The Governor General must issue writs for an election within seven days of the expiration or dissolution of the current Parliament.^[2] Under section 17 of the Constitution Act 1986, Parliament expires three years "from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." The writs for the 2014 election were returned on 10 October 2014, a day late due to a judicial recount of the Te Tai Tokerau electorate.^[3] As a result, the 51st Parliament will expire, if not dissolved earlier, on Tuesday, 10 October 2017. Consequently, the last day for issuance of writs of election is 17 October 2017. The writs must be returned within 50 days of their issuance (save for any judicial recount or death of a candidate), which will be Wednesday, 6 December 2017.^[4] Because polling day must be a Saturday^[4] and two weeks is generally required for the counting of special votes, the last possible date for the next general election is Saturday, 18 November 2017.

Electorate boundaries

Electorates in the election will be the same as at the 2014 election. New boundaries are not due until early 2019, after the 2018 census.

Marginal seats in 2014

At the 2014 general election, the following seats were won with a majority of less than 1000 votes.

• Auckland Central – National's Nikki Kaye retained the seat with a 600-vote majority over Labour's Jacinda Ardern.
• Hutt South – Labour's Trevor Mallard retained the seat with a 709-vote majority over National's Chris Bishop.
• Ōhāriu – United Future's Peter Dunne retained the seat with a 710-vote majority over Labour's Virginia Andersen.
• Te Tai Tokerau – Labour's Kelvin Davis gained the seat with a 743-vote majority over the Mana incumbent Hone Harawira.

Retiring MPs

Five existing Members of Parliament will not stand for re-election.

Name	Party		Electorate/List	Term in office
Russel Norman [5]		Green	List	2008–15
Clayton Cosgrove [6]		Labour	List	1999–present
Phil Goff [7]			Mt Roskill	1981–90; 1993–present
Tim Groser [8]		National	List	2005–2015
Mike Sabin [9]			Northland	2011–15

List-only MPs

Murray McCully (National) announced in February 2016 that he will not seek re-election as the electorate MP for East Coast Bays.^[10]

Opinion polling

References

1. "New Zealand Election Results". Electoral Commission. Retrieved 21 September 2014.
2. "Electoral Act 1993, Sec. 125". Legislation.co.nz. 17 August 2011. Retrieved 5 December 2011.
3. "General election key dates". Electoral Commission (New Zealand). Retrieved 24 August 2014.
4. "Electoral Act 1993, Sec. 139". Legislation.co.nz. 17 August 2011. Retrieved 5 December 2011.
5. Jones, Nicholas (11 September 2015). "Russel Norman quits Greens and Parliament to head Greenpeace NZ". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 10 April 2016.
6. "Labour MP Cosgrove won't stand again". NZ Herald. 2016-04-10. Retrieved 2016-04-10.
7. Vernon Small (2016-02-26). "Phil Goff to quit Parliament at 2017 election if he loses mayoralty". Stuff.co.nz. Retrieved 2016-04-10.
8. Davison, Isaac (7 December 2015). "Groser out, Collins back in reshuffle". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 10 April 2016.
9. "National MP Mike Sabin resigns". Newshub. 30 January 2013. Retrieved 10 April 2016.
10. "Foreign Affairs Minister Murray McCully won't contest East Coast Bays at 2017 election". Stuff.co.nz (Fairfax). 24 February 2016. Retrieved 10 April 2016.