North Rhine-Westphalia state election, 2012

North Rhine-Westphalia state election, 2012^[1][2]

13 May 2012

All 237 seats of the Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia 119 seats needed for a majority Turnout 59.6%   First party Second party Third party   Leader Hannelore Kraft Norbert Röttgen Sylvia Löhrmann Party SPD CDU Green Last election 67 seats, 34.5% 67 seats, 34.6% 23 seats, 12.1% Seats before 67 67 23 Seats won 99 67 29 Seat change 32 6 Popular vote 3,050,160 2,050,633 884,136 Percentage 39.1% 26.3% 11.3% Swing 4.6% 8.3% 0.8%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Christian Lindner Joachim Paul Katharina Schwabedissen Party FDP Pirates Left Last election 13 seats, 6.7% 0 seats, 1.6% 11 seats, 5.6% Seats before 13 0 11 Seats won 22 20 0 Seat change 9 20 11 Popular vote 669,971 608,957 194,539 Percentage 8.6% 7.8% 2.5% Swing 1.9% 6.2% 3.1%

First votes in the electoral districts.   CDU   SPD

Minister-President before election Hannelore Kraft SPD Minister-President designate Hannelore Kraft SPD

The North Rhine-Westphalia state election, 2012 was a snap election held on 13 May 2012, to elect members to the Landtag of the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia, after the former Landtag was dissolved on 14 March 2012. The red-green minority government led by Minister-President Hannelore Kraft was returned with a 19 seat majority and were able to continue governing the state.

The opposition consisted of the CDU, led by Norbert Röttgen since 2010, the FDP and The Left.

Background

Germany's largest state has often been described as a bellwether in recent years.^[3][4] The Social Democrats led the state's governments continuously from 1966 until a CDU-FDP coalition took control in the 2005 election. The defeat in the 2005 election led to Chancellor Gerhard Schröder calling early federal elections, which he lost.

The Red-Green coalition formed a minority government with Hannelore Kraft as Minister President after emerging one seat short of a governing majority in the previous election.^[5] The Landtag was dissolved after the government failed to pass the budget on 14 March 2012.^[5][6] All 3 opposition parties voted against the budget.^[6] The coalition were expecting the Free Democrats to abstain from voting on the budget and this would have allowed the Red-Green coalition to continue governing.^[7]

Campaign and issues

The Social Democratic Party and Green Party campaigned for a majority and were predicted to gain seats in the polls. The SPD won a landslide of constituencies, winning 99 seats to the CDU's 29 - more than the 72/181 seats they would be entitled to under the mixed member proportional representation system. The Landtag was increased from 181 to 237 seats to accommodate the "overhang".

The Christian Democratic Union nominated Environment Minister Norbert Röttgen to lead their campaign in North Rhine-Westphalia. However, Röttgen was criticised for not explaining whether he intended to stay in federal politics or continue to lead the party on a state level if he lost, and opinion polls showed that voters preferred Kraft as a Minister-President by a wide margin. The CDU made tackling the state's €230bn debt a key issue, including using a giant inflatable "debt mountain" as a prop.^[8]

The Free Democratic Party had fallen below the 5% threshold in six state elections since the 2009 federal election, but had managed to win 8% of the vote in Schleswig-Holstein a week before. In North-Rhine Westphalia, the FDP increased their share of the vote for the first time since 2009. This was attributed to the leadership of Christian Lindner.^[9]

The Pirate Party, running on a loose platform of Internet freedom and grassroots democracy, won seats in its fourth consecutive state election.

The Left Party, which had won seats in the Landtag for the first time in 2010, lost half its votes and all of its seats.

Polls

Opinion polls

The following opinion polls were conducted during the campaign:

Pollster	Date	CDU	SPD	Greens	FDP	The Left	Pirates	Others
INFO GmbH	11.05.2012	33%	38%	11%	5%	4%	8%	1%
YouGov	07.05.2012	31%	37%	11%	5%	4%	9%	3%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	04.05.2012	31%	38%	11%	6%	3%	8%	3%
Infratest dimap	03.05.2012	30%	38,5%	11%	6%	4%	7,5%	3%
YouGov	03.05.2012	31%	36%	11%	5%	4%	10%	3%
Forsa	02.05.2012	32%	37%	10%	5%	3%	10%	3%
Emnid	27.04.2012	32%	38%	10%	5%	4%	9%	2%
Infratest dimap	22.04.2012	31%	39%	11%	4%	3%	9%	3%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	20.04.2012	34%	37%	11%	4%	3%	8%	3%
YouGov	18.04.2012	32%	36%	13%	4%	4%	8%	3%
INFO GmbH	14.04.2012	29%	40%	10%	3%	3%	11%	3%
Infratest dimap	25.03.2012	32%	40%	12%	4%	3%	5%	4%
Forsa	21.03.2012	33%	39%	11%	4%	4%	6%	3%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	15.03.2012	34%	37%	13%	2%	4%	6%	4%
Infratest dimap	14.03.2012	34%	38%	14%	2%	4%	5%	3%
YouGov	14.03.2012	33%	33%	17%	2%	5%	7%	3%
Infratest dimap	26.02.2012	35%	35%	17%	2%	3%	5%	3%
YouGov	08.02.2012	33%	31%	15%	3%	6%	7%	5%
YouGov	19.01.2012	31%	33%	17%	3%	5%	8%	3%

Seat forecast

Analysts on election.de forecast the proportion of the 128 first-past-the-post seats (the other 109 being elected using party lists) after the next election. These seats traditionally have been held by either CDU or SPD.

Institut	Datum	CDU	SPD
election.de[10]	12.05.2012	39	89
election.de[11]	05.05.2012	38	90
election.de[12]	28.04.2012	41	87
election.de[13]	21.04.2012	54	74
election.de[14]	14.04.2012	39	89
election.de[15]	7.04.2012	46	82

Minister-President preference

Some pollsters also included the question on locals preference on the next Minister-President:

Pollster	Date	Hannelore Kraft (SPD)	Norbert Röttgen (CDU)
INFO GmbH[16]	11.05.2012	53%	22%
YouGov[17]	07.05.2012	46%	19%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[18]	04.05.2012	63%	27%
Infratest dimap[19]	03.05.2012	58%	26%
Forsa[20]	02.05.2012	56%	25%
Infratest dimap[21]	22.04.2012	58%	30%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[22]	20.04.2012	55%	32%
INFO GmbH	14.04.2012	49%	21%
Infratest dimap[23]	25.03.2012	57%	28%
Forsa[24]	21.03.2012	56%	26%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen[25]	15.03.2012	54%	30%
Infratest dimap[23]	14.03.2012	57%	26%
YouGov[26]	14.03.2012	42%	21%
Infratest dimap[23]	26.02.2012	51%	29%
YouGov	19.01.2012	36%	17%

Results

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 Summary of the 13 May 2012 Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia elections results

Party		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	+/–	Seats	+/–
	Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands - SPD	3,050,160	39.1%	4.6%	99	32
	Christian Democratic Union Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands - CDU	2,050,633	26.3%	8.3%	67
	Alliance '90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen	884,136	11.3%	0.8%	29	6
	Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei – FDP|| 669,971	8.6%	1.9%	22	9
	Pirate Party Germany Piratenpartei Deutschland	608,957	7.8%	6.2%	20	20
	Left Die Linke	194,239	2.5%	3.1%	0	11
	Other parties	335,730	4.4%	0.9%	0
Valid votes		7,794,126	98.6%
Invalid votes		107,796	1.4%
Totals and voter turnout		7,901,922	59.6%	0.3%	237	56
Electorate		13,264,231	100.00	—
Source: Die Landeswahlleiterin des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen

Sources

1. http://www.wahlergebnisse.nrw.de/landtagswahlen/2012/aktuell/dateien/a000lw1200.html
2. http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/wahlergebnisse-landtagswahl-nordrhein-westfalen-2012-a-829466.html
3. http://www.smh.com.au/world/merkels-austerity-push-rejected-in-bellwether-state-20120514-1ym1f.html
4. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/13/eu-leaders-showdown-eurozone-crisis
5. "Biggest German state heads for early election". The Local. 14 March 2012. Retrieved 14 March 2012.
6. von Hellfeld, Matthias (15 March 2012). "Budget bungle forces snap state election". Deutsche Welle. Retrieved 15 March 2012.
7. "North Rhine-Westphalia Faces Snap Election". Spiegel Online. 14 March 2012. Retrieved 14 March 2012.
8. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/angela-merkel-prepares-for-an-austerity-backlash-as-key-state-goes-to-the-polls-7734727.html
10. "Wahlkreisprognose LTW Nordrhein-Westfalen - Stand 12.05.2012". election.de, Matthias Moehl. Retrieved 2012-05-12.
11. "Wahlkreisprognose LTW Nordrhein-Westfalen - Stand 05.05.2012". election.de, Matthias Moehl. Retrieved 2012-05-05.
12. "Wahlkreisprognose LTW Nordrhein-Westfalen - Stand 28.04.2012". election.de, Matthias Moehl. Retrieved 2012-04-28.
13. "Wahlkreisprognose LTW Nordrhein-Westfalen - Stand 21.04.2012". election.de, Matthias Moehl. Retrieved 2012-04-22.
14. "Wahlkreisprognose LTW Nordrhein-Westfalen - Stand 14.04.2012". election.de, Matthias Moehl. Retrieved 2012-04-22.
15. "Wahlkreisprognose LTW Nordrhein-Westfalen - Stand 07.04.2012". election.de, Matthias Moehl. Retrieved 2012-04-13.
16. Dietmar Neuerer (2012-05-10). "Handelsblatt-Umfrage: NRW-Wähler lassen Röttgen fallen". Handelsblatt. Retrieved 2012-05-13. – Umfrage des Meinungsforschungsinstituts Info im Auftrag von Handelsblatt Online
17. "Neue Umfrage: Liberale auch in NRW drin". BILD. 2012-05-07. Retrieved 2012-05-07. – Repräsentative Umfrage des Instituts YouGov im Auftrag der "Bild-Zeitung"
18. "Knappe Mehrheit für Rot-Grün – FDP bei sechs Prozent". ZDF. 2012-05-04. Retrieved 2012-05-04. – Repräsentative Umfrage des Instituts Forschungsgruppe Wahlen im Auftrag des ZDF
19. "ARD DeutschlandTrend: Rot-Grün bleibt in NRW klar vorn". ARD. 2012-05-03. Retrieved 2012-05-03. – Repräsentative Umfrage des Instituts Infratest dimap im Auftrag der ARD
20. "Es wird knapp für Rot-Grün in NRW". Forsa. 2012-05-02. Retrieved 2012-05-02. – Repräsentative Umfrage des Instituts Forsa im Auftrag des Stern
21. "LänderTrend. Nordrhein-WestfalenTREND April 2012". Gesellschaft für Trend- und Wahlforschung. 2012-04-22. Retrieved 2012-04-23. – Repräsentative Umfrage des Instituts Infratest dimap im Auftrag des WDR für WESTPOL
22. "NRW: Mehrheit für Rot-Grün". ZDF. 2012-04-20. Retrieved 2012-04-20. – Repräsentative Umfrage des Instituts Forschungsgruppe Wahlen im Auftrag des ZDF
23. "Deutliche Verschiebungen in der politischen Stimmung". ARD. 2012-03-25. Retrieved 2012-03-25. – Repräsentative Umfrage des Instituts Infratest dimap im Auftrag der ARD
24. "Kraft ist deutlich beliebter als Röttgen". Stern. 2012-03-21. Retrieved 2012-03-21. – Repräsentative Umfrage des Instituts Forsa im Auftrag von Stern/RTL
25. "Klare Mehrheit für Rot-Grün". ZDF. 2012-03-15. Retrieved 2012-03-16. – Repräsentative Umfrage des Instituts Forschungsgruppe Wahlen im Auftrag des ZDF
26. "CDU und SPD in NRW gleichauf". Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger. 2012-03-14. Retrieved 2012-03-14. – Repräsentative Umfrage des Instituts YouGov im Auftrag von Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger und Sat 1/NRW