Opinion polling for the Spanish general election, 2000

In the run up to the Spanish general election of 2000, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Spain. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 3 March 1996, to the day the next election was held, on 12 March 2000.

Vote estimations

Graphical summary

Poll results

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Color key:

      Multi-scenario poll       Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls       Exit poll       Alternative projection

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling						Margin of Error	Sample Size	Lead
General Election	March 12, 2000	44.5	34.2	5.4	4.2	1.5			10.3
Eco Consulting (21:00)	March 12, 2000	42.1	32.9	7.5	4.0	1.9			9.2
Eco Consulting (20:00)	March 12, 2000	41.6	34.6	7.0	4.0	1.6			7.0
Gallup	March 11, 2000	42.7	33.9	7.8	4.3	1.6	±2.9 pp	1,228	8.8
CIS	March 7, 2000	43.7	33.7	8.7	4.2	1.7			10.0
La Vanguardia	March 5, 2000	43.2	35.3						7.9
Sondaxe	March 5, 2000	42.1	37.4	8.1	4.3	1.6			4.7
Sigma Dos	March 5, 2000	41.9	37.3	6.5	4.5	1.7			4.6
Metra Seis	March 5, 2000	41.5	36.7	8.0	4.4	1.4			4.8
La Vanguardia	March 3, 2000	45.7	33.2						12.5
Demoscopia	March 2, 2000	41.7	37.1	7.3	4.1	1.4	±0.8 pp	15,000	4.6
Vox Pública^[AP]	March 1, 2000	44.5	33.7	6.2	4.4	1.5	±2.4 pp	2,300	10.8
Vox Pública	March 1, 2000	41.7	37.6	7.5	4.2	1.6	±2.4 pp	2,300	4.1
Eco Consulting	February 29, 2000	40.5	36.7	7.3	4.3	1.4	±0.8 pp	15,600	3.8
Opina	February 28, 2000	41.8	37.2	8.0	4.2	1.3	±1.8 pp	3,000	4.6
CIS	February 28, 2000	41.6	36.6	7.4	4.1	1.3	±0.6 pp	24,040	5.0
Gallup	February 28, 2000	42.4	37.4	6.9	4.2	1.5	±2.2 pp	2,029	5.0
Eco Consulting	February 15, 2000	41.8	38.2	7.3	4.5	1.4	±2.1 pp	2,232	3.6
Demoscopia	February 13, 2000	41.6	37.3	7.5	4.4	1.4		2,000	4.3
Vox Pública^[AP]	February 8, 2000	46.3	32.3	7.1	3.7	1.6	±2.4 pp	2,300	14.0
Vox Pública	February 8, 2000	42.6	36.6	7.5	4.2	1.9	±2.4 pp	2,300	6.0
Sigma Dos	February 6, 2000	42.9	36.2	7.8	4.4	1.3			6.7
La Vanguardia	January 30, 2000	44.7	35.1						9.6
Opina^[PS]	January 25, 2000	42.0	40.0	8.0	4.0	1.2	±1.8 pp	3,000	2.0
Opina^[NS]	January 25, 2000	42.5	37.0	7.5	4.3	1.3	±1.8 pp	3,000	5.5
Gallup	January 24, 2000	40.7	37.1	7.0	4.1	1.4			3.6
Vox Pública^[AP]	January 18, 2000	45.0	33.3	5.8	4.3	1.2	±2.6 pp	2,300	11.7
Vox Pública	January 18, 2000	43.0	38.0	6.5	4.2	1.3	±2.6 pp	2,300	5.0
Sigma Dos	January 3, 2000	42.5	36.8	6.3	4.4	1.4			5.7
Demoscopia	December 22, 1999	40.9	36.5	6.7	4.1	1.5			4.4
Gallup	December 20, 1999	38.6	38.2	6.8	4.5	1.2			0.4
Sondaxe	December 5, 1999	43.8	36.8						7.0
La Vanguardia	November 28, 1999	42.2	34.2						8.0
La Vanguardia	November 25, 1999	41.1	34.1						7.0
Opina	November 22, 1999	41.5	36.0	8.0	4.0	1.5	±1.8 pp	3,000	5.5
Gallup	November 22, 1999	39.0	38.4	6.3	4.2	1.3			0.6
La Vanguardia	October 31, 1999	39.7	36.8	6.5					2.9
CIS	October 26, 1999	40.6	35.8	6.8	4.5	1.2	±2.0 pp	2,496	4.8
GETS	October 7, 1999	41.0	36.5	10.3	4.4	1.2			4.5
Sigma Dos	October 1, 1999	42.2	37.0	7.1	4.5	1.3			5.2
Metra Seis	October 1, 1999	41.8	36.8	7.4	4.5	1.2	±2.8 pp	1,200	4.0
Gallup	September 27, 1999	40.7	37.2	9.8	4.3	1.0	±2.2 pp	2,029	3.5
Demoscopia	September 15, 1999	40.8	36.7	7.0	4.8	1.3		1,809	4.1
Eco Consulting	September 10, 1999	41.4	35.8	8.8	4.3	1.5	±3.2 pp	1,000	5.6
La Vanguardia	August 26, 1999	41.8	34.7						7.1
CIS	July 15, 1999	40.7	35.8	6.6	4.6	1.2	±2.0 pp	2,490	4.9
DYM	July 12, 1999	41.8	37.1	7.2	4.9	1.1	±2.0 pp	2,534	4.7
Gallup	June 21, 1999	40.1	38.1	9.5	4.0	1.2			2.0
EP Election	June 13, 1999	39.7	35.3	5.8	4.4	1.9			4.4
Municipal Elections	June 13, 1999	34.4	34.3	6.5	3.6	1.3			0.1
Demoscopia	June 1, 1999	41.5	37.0	7.7	4.1			17,500	4.5
Metra Seis	May 20, 1999	41.7	35.3	8.8	4.7	1.2	±2.8 pp	1,200	6.4
CIS	April 28, 1999	41.0	35.9	8.9	4.6	1.3	±2.0 pp	2,499	5.1
DYM	April 16, 1999	42.9	34.1	10.1	4.6	1.5	±1.8 pp	3,019	8.8
Demoscopia	April 14, 1999	41.1	31.6	8.1	5.4			1,200	9.5
Metra Seis	February 22, 1999	42.5	35.7	7.6	4.6	1.3	±2.8 pp	1,200	6.8
Eco Consulting	February 20, 1999	42.1	35.0	10.0	4.5	1.5	±2.6 pp	1,500	7.1
La Vanguardia	January 31, 1999	41.5	35.9						5.6
CIS	January 31, 1999	41.1	35.4	9.2	4.5	1.3	±2.0 pp	2,493	5.7
Opina	January 23, 1999	42.0	37.0	7.5	4.4	0.8	±3.1 pp	1,000	5.0
DYM	January 16, 1999	42.6	33.9	8.5	4.5	1.1	±2.0 pp	2,513	8.7
Sigma Dos	December 27, 1998	42.9	36.1	7.7	4.5	1.3	±3.2 pp	1,000	6.8
Gallup	December 21, 1998	40.6	36.4	9.9	4.7	1.4		2,017	4.2
Metra Seis	December 14, 1998	42.0	36.8	8.2	4.4	1.2	±2.8 pp	1,200	5.2
Eco Consulting	November 18, 1998	40.6	36.5	9.8	4.5	1.7	±3.1 pp	1,001	4.1
Opina	November 14, 1998	41.5	37.5	6.5	4.8	0.8	±3.1 pp	1,000	4.0
La Vanguardia	November 1, 1998	41.3	34.7	7.1	4.6	1.4			6.6
CIS	October 31, 1998	40.9	36.6	9.1	4.2	1.3	±2.0 pp	2,490	4.3
GETS	October 8, 1998	38.3	39.8	8.9	4.8	1.5			1.5
Demoscopia	October 4, 1998	40.9	35.9	10.1	3.9				5.0
Vox Pública	October 3, 1998	38.1	38.1	10.7	4.2	1.2	±2.2 pp	1,992	Tie
DeCo	September 30, 1998	38.6	39.5	8.2				7,470	0.9
Metra Seis	September 21, 1998	41.3	37.3	8.5	4.4	1.4			4.0
Gallup	September 21, 1998	37.6	39.4	9.6	4.8	1.4			1.8
Sigma Dos	September 6, 1998	40.4	37.8	9.1	4.3	1.3	±0.8 pp	14,565	2.6
Demoscopia	July 13, 1998	37.9	35.8	8.8	4.2				2.1
CIS	July 13, 1998	38.4	37.9	9.3	4.5	1.3	±2.0 pp	2,486	0.5
Vox Pública	June 17, 1998	38.5	37.6	9.3	4.3	1.8	±2.2 pp	1,992	0.9
Gallup	May 25, 1998	37.8	40.6	8.6	4.2	1.3			2.8
ASEP^[EF]	May 22, 1998	40.1	36.8	9.3			±3 pp	1,205	3.3
Opina	May 13, 1998	40.0	38.0	7.0	5.0	1.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	2.0
La Vanguardia	May 2, 1998	38.8	39.4	8.7					0.6
Vox Pública	April 29, 1998	36.2	39.4	9.4	3.7	2.2	±2.9 pp	1,200	3.2
CIS	April 29, 1998	37.1	38.9	9.0	4.9	1.3	±2.0 pp	2,498	1.8
Demoscopia	April 26, 1998	36.6	38.2	7.3	4.6	1.3			1.6
ASEP^[EF]	April 24, 1998	36.2	38.9				±3 pp	1,204	2.7
Sigma Dos	April 19, 1998	40.3	38.6	8.4	4.5	1.2	±3.2 pp	1,000	1.7
Metra Seis	April 15, 1998	41.2	37.5	8.5	4.5	1.3	±2.8 pp	1,200	3.7
Gallup	March 23, 1998	38.3	38.3	9.4	4.6	1.2			Tie
ASEP^[EF]	March 20, 1998	38.5	37.3				±3 pp	1,209	1.2
DeCo	March 19, 1998	38	39						1
DeCo	February 23, 1998	40.1	38.3						1.8
ASEP^[EF]	February 20, 1998	39.0	36.0				±3 pp	1,213	3.0
CIS	January 27, 1998	40.5	36.4	9.3	4.5	1.3	±2.0 pp	2,496	4.1
Opina	January 24, 1998	41.0	36.0	6.5	4.8	1.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	5.0
ASEP^[EF]	January 23, 1998	41.0	34.6				±3 pp	1,209	6.4
Metra Seis	January 14, 1998	41.8	36.5	8.6	4.8	1.5	±2.8 pp	1,200	5.3
Sigma Dos	January 4, 1998	42.1	36.4	8.5	4.4	1.3	±3.2 pp	1,000	5.7
Gallup	December 22, 1997	39.8	36.8	8.8	4.7	1.2			3.0
ASEP^[EF]	December 13, 1997	41.2	34.5				±3 pp	1,204	6.7
Opina	December 5, 1997	40.0	37.0	6.5	4.6	0.8	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.0
Demoscopia	November 30, 1997	40.8	34.7	8.8	3.2	1.3			6.1
ASEP^[EF]	November 15, 1997	38.0	37.7				±3 pp	1,211	0.3
CIS	October 28, 1997	39.6	36.4	9.0	4.6	1.2	±2.0 pp	2,496	3.2
La Vanguardia	October 26, 1997	39.6	34.2	7.1	4.6				5.4
ASEP^[EF]	October 18, 1997	39.5	36.6				±3 pp	1,214	2.9
Sigma Dos	October 12, 1997	40.5	37.4	9.1	4.5	1.5	±3.2 pp	1,000	3.1
GETS	October 9, 1997	38.9	38.0	8.9	5.4	1.3			0.9
DeCo	October 3, 1997	38.5	37.7	9.3					0.8
Demoscopia	October 1, 1997	41.0	34.7	8.7	3.2	1.2			6.3
Gallup	September 22, 1997	39.0	38.6	8.9	5.0	1.2			0.4
Opina	September 21, 1997	40.0	38.5	8.5	5.2	1.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	1.5
ASEP^[EF]	September 20, 1997	40.8	35.8				±3 pp	1,218	5.0
Metra Seis	September 15, 1997	41.0	37.2	9.0	4.8	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.8
Sigma Dos	July 21, 1997	40.9	37.0	9.7	4.7	1.5	±3.2 pp	1,000	3.9
Demoscopia	July 16, 1997	38.1	36.4	10.5	4.3	1.3			1.7
CIS	July 15, 1997	40.3	38.2	9.4	4.3	1.4	±2.0 pp	2,495	2.1
ASEP^[EF]	July 11, 1997	39.6	36.4				±3 pp	1,214	3.2
DeCo	July 6, 1997	40.5	37.6						2.9
Gallup	June 23, 1997	40.1	37.7	10.3	4.5	1.4			2.4
Opina	June 16, 1997	40.0	38.0	10.5	5.0	1.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	2.0
Sigma Dos	June 15, 1997	39.5	37.4	10.3	4.6	1.4	±3.2 pp	1,000	2.1
ASEP^[EF]	June 14, 1997	36.6	38.6				±3 pp	1,220	2.0
Vox Pública	May 22, 1997	40.0	35.9	10.9	3.6	1.1	±3.5 pp	800	4.1
Opina	May 20, 1997	39.5	38.0	10.0	5.1	1.2	±3.1 pp	1,000	1.5
ASEP^[EF]	May 17, 1997	39.2	35.8				±3 pp	1,221	3.4
CIS	April 27, 1997	39.2	37.4	10.5	4.6	1.2	±2.0 pp	2,496	1.8
Opina	April 20, 1997	38.0	39.0	10.5	5.0	1.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	1.0
Sigma Dos	April 18, 1997	38.7	38.1	10.4	4.4	1.3	±3.2 pp	1,000	0.6
Gallup	March 24, 1997	37.5	39.6	10.6	4.9	1.1			2.1
Opina	March 8, 1997	38.0	38.5	10.0	5.0	1.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	0.5
Sigma Dos	February 9, 1997	39.6	37.0	10.8	4.2	1.2	±3.2 pp	1,000	2.6
Opina	February 4, 1997	38.4	37.4	10.0	5.0	1.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	1.0
CIS	January 27, 1997	38.7	38.2	10.0	4.5	1.4	±2.0 pp	2,488	0.5
ASEP^[EF]	January 18, 1997	38.0	37.6	10.3			±3 pp	1,212	0.4
Sigma Dos	January 2, 1997	38.2	39.1	10.4	4.3	1.3	±3.2 pp	1,000	0.9
Gallup	December 26, 1996	35.9	39.9	11.9	4.2	1.6			4.0
DeCo	November 29, 1996	35.4	40.0	10.5	5.0			1,500	4.6
CIS	October 31, 1996	36.3	39.9	10.5	5.1	1.3	±2.0 pp	2,498	3.6
Sigma Dos	October 28, 1996	37.1	38.4	11.4	4.8	1.3	±3.2 pp	1,000	1.3
DeCo	October 22, 1996	36.1	38.7	11.4	5.0				2.6
ASEP^[EF]	October 12, 1996	34.8	39.2	11.8			±3 pp	1,212	4.4
GETS	October 10, 1996	32.7	36.5	11.7	4.9	2.2			3.8
Opina	October 2, 1996	37.2	39.1	10.3	4.8	1.4	±3 pp	1,066	1.9
Sigma Dos	August 11, 1996	38.8	36.8	11.3	4.3	1.4	±3.2 pp	1,000	2.0
CIS	July 21, 1996	38.8	37.3	11.2	4.6	1.4	±2.0 pp	2,496	1.5
CIS	June 2, 1996	38.6	37.3	11.3	4.9	1.4	±2.0 pp	2,496	1.3
Demoscopia	May 12, 1996	38.9	37.5	10.6	4.6	1.3			1.4
General Election	March 3, 1996	38.8	37.6	10.5	4.6	1.3			1.2

Notes

^PS Identifies multi-scenario opinion polls which hypothesize on a PSOE-IU pact.

^NS Identifies multi-scenario opinion polls which hypothesize on no specific scenario.

^AP Identifies alternative projections based on the poll's raw data, without attribution of 'shy voters' to PSOE. Projection was elaborated before the election, but not published until later.

^EF Identifies polling firms that explicitly show their top-line results projected over "all electorate" figures, that is, not excluding the calculated abstention rate. This is in contrast to "valid votes", which is the most frequent method of vote projection by opinion pollsters and which do account for blank ballots. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results projected over "valid votes" as well as projections from other pollsters, a rule of three is applied, disregarding the projected abstention rate. The results of such calculation are shown instead.

Parliamentary seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 176 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies.

Color key:

      Multi-scenario poll       Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls       Exit poll

176 seats needed for a majority

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling
General Election	March 12, 2000	183	125	8	15	7
Eco Consulting (21:00)	March 12, 2000	173/180	122/126	10/13	14/16	8/9
Eco Consulting (20:00)	March 12, 2000	168/173	129/134	10/12	14/16	7
Opitel	March 12, 2000	168/173	131/136	12/13	15/16	7/8
Sigma Dos	March 12, 2000	162/173	133/143	9/11	14/15	7
Gallup	March 11, 2000	173/178	128/133	11/13	14/15	6/7
CIS	March 7, 2000	176	123	17	14	7
La Vanguardia	March 5, 2000	175/180	128/136
Sondaxe	March 5, 2000	163/170	136/143	11/14	13/15	7
Sigma Dos	March 5, 2000	164/170	137/143	9/11	16	6/7
Metra Seis	March 5, 2000	162/170	134/142	12/13	15/16	7
La Vanguardia	March 3, 2000	183/185	123/128
Demoscopia	March 2, 2000	165/171	131/139	9/13	14/15	6/7
Vox Pública	March 1, 2000	165/170	135/140	9/12	13/14	7/8
Eco Consulting	February 29, 2000	158/164	138/144	9/12	15/16	6/7
Opina	February 28, 2000	166/170	136/140	12/14	14/15	6
CIS	February 28, 2000	163/168	138/143	9/11	14/15	7
La Vanguardia	January 30, 2000	180/182	126/131
Opina^[PS]	January 25, 2000	157/160	145/148	15/16	14	4/5
Opina^[NS]	January 25, 2000	164/168	138/143	14/15	14/15	5
Sigma Dos	January 3, 2000	167/174	137/144	9/10	15/16	5/6
La Vanguardia	November 28, 1999	175/179	128/135
La Vanguardia	November 25, 1999	175/176	130/135
Opina	November 22, 1999	163/167	132/140	13/15	14/15	5/6
CIS^[LV]	October 26, 1999	167	139
Sigma Dos	October 1, 1999	165/170	135/140		16	5
Metra Seis	October 1, 1999	164/170	136/142	11/13	14/16	5
La Vanguardia	August 26, 1999	175/176	130/135
CIS^[LV]	July 15, 1999	169	140
EP Election	June 13, 1999	(163)	(133)	(9)	(17)	(7)
CIS^[LV]	April 28, 1999	169	138
La Vanguardia	January 31, 1999	170/171	136/140
CIS^[LV]	January 31, 1999	167/175	127/136	14/16	15/16	5/6
Opina	January 23, 1999	166/174	133/141	12/13	15/16	3/5
Metra Seis	December 14, 1998	167/174	133/140	12/15
Opina	November 14, 1998	166/173	135/143	9	15/17	5
La Vanguardia	November 1, 1998	171/173	131/133	12	16	6
CIS^[LV]	October 31, 1998	165	140
Metra Seis	September 21, 1998	163/170	134/142
Sigma Dos	September 6, 1998	164	139	18	14	6
CIS^[LV]	July 13, 1998	156	147
La Vanguardia	June 7, 1998	163/164	143/144	10	17	5
Opina	May 13, 1998	163/165	142/143	10/11	17	5
La Vanguardia	May 2, 1998	152/154	149/150	14/15
CIS^[LV]	April 29, 1998	149/151	152/155	14/15	16	5
CIS^[LV]	January 27, 1998	164	138
Metra Seis	January 14, 1998	166/172	133/138
CIS^[LV]	October 28, 1997	163	140
La Vanguardia	October 26, 1997	169/171	133/136	12	16
Metra Seis	September 15, 1997	163/167	136/140	14/17	16	6/7
CIS^[LV]	July 15, 1997	162	142
CIS^[LV]	April 27, 1997	159	139
CIS^[LV]	January 27, 1997	156	145
CIS^[LV]	October 31, 1996	143	154
Opina	October 2, 1996	149/150	150/151	19/20	16	5
General Election	March 3, 1996	156	141	21	16	5

Notes

^PS Identifies multi-scenario opinion polls which hypothesize on a PSOE-IU pact.

^NS Identifies multi-scenario opinion polls which hypothesize on no specific scenario.

^LV Identifies seat projections done by La Vanguardia over a poll's vote estimations.