Opinion polling for the Turkish general election, November 2015

Turkey This article is part of a series on the
Turkish general election, November 2015
Sunday, 1 November 2015

Opinion polling · Electoral districts · Electoral system · Controversies · Members elected

Issues and developments
Solution process · 2015 Suruç bombing · Turkey–ISIL conflict · 2015 PKK rebellion · Operation Martyr Yalçın · Counter-terrorism raids · Syrian refugee crisis · Media censorship · Presidential system · Ankara bombings · Government–Gülen conflict
Results
Party
Votes
%
MPs
AKP 23,681,926 49.50% 317
CHP 12,111,812 25.32% 134
MHP 5,694,136 11.90% 40
HDP 5,148,085 10.76% 59
Others 1,204,272 2.52% 0
Total
47,840,231 100.00% 550
Gallery: Picture, Sound, Video
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In the leadup to the November 2015 general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. These polls only include Turkish voters nationwide and do not take into account Turkish expatriates voting abroad.

The results tend to vary widely (see opinion polls in Turkey for further information). Opposition parties tend to regard such polls as unreliable and have presented legislation to Parliament tightening restrictions on how opinion polls conduct their research. After the previous election in June 2015, the polling company ORC issued a written statement apologising for the inaccuracies in their pre-election polls. KONDA, another polling company, made an apology for similar reasons after their predictions varied widely with the actual result after the 2014 presidential election.

Polling accuracy

The following table shows the most accurate polling companies based on the last opinion polls conducted by each company before the June 2015 vote (held on 7 June 2015), taking into account the domestic-only vote shares won in the election.

Party Actual vote
7 June 2015		 Most accurate pollster
Pollster Poll date Predicted vote Error margin
AKP 40.7 ANAR 27 May 40.5 Decrease 0.2
CHP 25.1 MAK 18–26 May 24.9 Decrease 0.2
ORC 30 May-1 June 25.3 Increase 0.2
MHP 16.5 Gezici 2 June 16.5 Steady 0.0
HDP 13.0 Konda 30–31 May 12.6 Decrease 0.4
Overall most accurate ANAR 27 May – Increase 0.9

Controversies

According to media reports, Turkey's AK Party government has attempted to suppress polling companies who publish polls predicting that the AK Party will lose seats in the election.

Gezici Research and Polling Company have had some of their pollsters arrested in February and September 2015, after predicting that the AK Party will lose power in the next election.[1]

Vote share polling

Graphical summary

Opinion polling since the June general election

Poll results

Date Pollster Sample AKP CHP MHP HDP Others Lead
1 Nov Election results
Domestic vote only 		46,555,267 49.3 25.6 12.0 10.6 2.5 23.7
24–29 Oct Andy-Ar[2] 2,400 43.7 27.1 14.0 13.0 2.2 16.6
24–25 Oct Konda[3][4] 3,574 41.7 27.9 14.2 13.8 2.3 13.8
24–25 Oct A&G[5] 4,536 47.2 25.3 13.5 12.2 1.8 21.9
24–25 Oct Gezici[6] 4,864 43.0 26.1 14.9 12.2 3.8 16.9
22–24 Oct Metropoll[7] 2,576 43.3 25.9 14.8 13.4 2.6 17.4
21–24 Oct ORC[8] 2,650 43.3 27.4 14.0 12.2 3.1 15.9
22 Oct
The first of a series of pre-election restrictions come into force, banning the publication of opinion polls
17–21 Oct Kurd-Tek[9] 2,592 39.1 28.1 14.4 14.2 4.2 11.0
16–20 Oct AKAM[10] 24,540 40.5 28.2 14.3 14.2 2.8 12.3
16–20 Oct Betimar[11] 2,000 44.3 25.5 13.6 13.0 3.6 18.8
13–19 Oct Konsensus[12] 2,002 43.0 28.6 13.1 11.9 3.4 14.4
17–18 Oct Konda[3][4] ? 41.5 28.0 14.7 12.7 3.1
12–17 Oct Gezici[13][14] 4,864 41.3 27.0 15.6 12.5 3.6 14.3
12–17 Oct MAK[15] – 43.5 27.8 13.6 12.1 3.0 15.7
12–16 Oct Argetus[16] 4,472 43.1 26.2 15.1 12.6 3.0 16.9
10–16 Oct Perspektif[17] 1,255 42.3 27.6 14.7 12.8 2.6 14.7
10–15 Oct Denge[18] – 43.4 25.9 13.7 13.6 3.4 17.5
8–15 Oct Sonar[19] 3,000 40.5 27.3 15.2 13.1 3.9 13.2
10 Oct
Twin bombings target a peace rally in Ankara
5–9 Oct Samer[20] 4,144 41.4 26.9 15.4 13.9 2.4 14.5
4–7 Oct MetroPoll[21] 2,526 42.5 26.3 16.3 13.0 1.9 16.2
3–6 Oct Andy-Ar[22] 1,764 42.6 27.1 15.2 12.1 3.0 15.5
3–4 Oct Konda[3][4] ? 41.0 29.2 14.8 12.2 2.8
3–4 Oct Gezici[23][24] 4,860 40.8 27.6 15.8 13.6 2.2 13.2
28 Sep-1 Oct TÜSİAR[25] 3,041 43.0 26.4 14.6 12.1 4.0 16.6
26–27 Sep Gezici[26] 4,860 39.8 28.2 17.3 12.3 2.4 11.6
17–24 Sep LRC[26] 2,425 38.9 26.0 17.9 12.3 4.9 12.9
23 Sep AKAM[27][28] 1,214 38.9 27.7 14.5 14.6 4.3 11.2
19–23 Sep MAK[29] 5,500 43.7 26.7 14.1 11.5 4.1 17.0
22 Sep
The two HDP ministers in the interim election government resign and are replaced by independents
19–21 Sep Ada[30] 3,000 44.7 27.6 12.9 11.8 3.0 17.1
18 Sep
Deputy Prime Minister and MHP Ankara MP Tuğrul Türkeş defects to the AKP
12–15 Sep ORC[31][32] 2,760 44.0 27.8 13.4 11.0 3.8 16.2
2–15 Sep KURD-TEK[33][34] 5,348 38.5 26.7 17.5 14.6 2.8 11.8
12–13 Sep Gezici[35] 5,000 39.3 28.1 16.8 13.5 2.3 11.2
5–13 Sep Konsensus[36] 1,500 43.3 27.6 13.8 12.6 2.7 15.7
27 Aug-13 Sep ANAR-Denge-GENAR-Pollmark[37] 157,907 44.2 25.4 14.0 12.5 3.9 18.8
12 Sep
Ahmet Davutoğlu is re-elected as AKP leader unopposed during the party's 5th Ordinary Congress
5–12 Sep Sonar[38] 2,500 38.2 28.0 18.2 13.7 1.9 10.2
5–6 Sep Konda[3][4][39] ? 41.7 24.8 16.4 12.3 4.8
2–5 Sep MetroPoll[40] 2,540 41.4 27.3 15.3 13.0 3.2 14.1
3 Sep Varyans[41] 15,000 43.9 26.2 14.1 12.3 3.5 17.7
2 Sep KamuAR[42] 5,249 42.3 26.0 18.7 11.9 1.2 16.3
28 Aug
Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu forms Turkey's first ever interim election government
22–25 Aug ORC[43] 2,450 43.7 27.5 14.3 11.2 3.3 16.2
24 Aug
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan calls a snap general election scheduled for 1 November 2015
24 Aug AKAM[44] 1,624 39.7 28.5 12.6 14.8 4.7 11.2
22–23 Aug Gezici[45] 4,860 38.9 27.8 16.3 13.5 3.5 11.1
19–23 Aug Argetus[46] 2,960 42.6 25.5 15.4 12.5 4.0 17.1
21 Aug MetroPoll[47] 2,520 41.7 25.5 15.7 14.7 2.4 16.2
20 Aug CHP[48] – 38.8 28.7 14.6 13.8 4.1 10.1
18 Aug
AKP leader and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu returns the mandate to form a government to the
President after last-ditch coalition talks with the MHP break down
18 Aug Gezici[49] – 39.2 26.4 16.2 14.1 4.1 12.8
13 Aug
Coalition talks between the AKP and the CHP break down
13 Aug AK Party[50] – 43.8 25.5 15.4 12.5 2.8 18.3
8–11 Aug Andy-Ar[51] 1,504 42.8 27.0 15.9 12.8 1.5 15.8
8–9 Aug Konda[3][4] ? 43.6 25.5 14.7 12.8 3.4
7–9 Aug ORC[52] 1,580 44.1 26.8 15.6 10.7 2.8 17.3
4 – 8 Aug MAK[53] 5,500 44.7 25.3 15.6 10.7 3.7 19.4
24 Jul – 4 Aug SONAR[54] 3,500 42.9 25.2 17.0 10.3 5.6 17.2
27 Jul AKAM[55] 1,412 39.9 27.5 13.8 14.5 4.4 12.4
21 Jul
İstanbul MP İhsan Özkes resigns from the CHP
20 Jul
A suicide bombing in Suruç kills 32 people and results in military operations against the
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)
11–15 Jul ORC[56] 3,200 43.5 27.0 15.5 10.9 3.1 16.5
4–5 Jul Gezici[57] 4,860 40.1 26.1 14.7 14.2 4.9 14.0
29 Jun Andy-Ar[58] 1,556 42.8 27.3 15.4 11.7 2.8 15.5
24 Jun MetroPoll[59] 2,483 41.6 25.1 16.2 12.9 4.2 16.5
8 Jun IPSOS[60] 1,750 45.0 25.0 14.0 12.0 3.0 20.0
7 JunJune 2015 general election
Domestic vote only		 45,121,773 40.725.116.513.04.715.6
12 Jun 2011June 2011 general election
Domestic vote only		 42,813,896 49.826.013.0 – 11.223.8

Seat predictions

Date Pollster Sample AKP CHP MHP HDP Majority
22–24 Oct MetroPoll[61] 2,576
269 / 550
134 / 550
67 / 550
80 / 550
 Hung
17–21 Oct Kurd-Tek[9] 2,592
251 / 550
149 / 550
66 / 550
84 / 550
 Hung
16–20 Oct AKAM[10] 24,540
254 / 550
140 / 550
69 / 550
87 / 550
 Hung
16–20 Oct Betimar[11] 2,000
278 / 550
132 / 550
61 / 550
79 / 550
 6
17–18 Oct Gezici[13][14] 4,864
262 / 550
137 / 550
74 / 550
77 / 550
 Hung
3–4 Oct Gezici[24] 4,860
256 / 550
141 / 550
73 / 550
80 / 550
 Hung
26–27 Sep Gezici[62] 4,860
246 / 550
140 / 550
87 / 550
77 / 550
 Hung
23 Sep AKAM[63] 1,214
243 / 550
149 / 550
72 / 550
86 / 550
 Hung
27 Aug-13 Sep ANAR-Denge-GENAR-Pollmark[64] 157,907
276 / 550
129 / 550
65 / 550
80 / 550
 2
24 Aug AKAM[44] 1,624
250 / 550
144 / 550
68 / 550
88 / 550
 Hung
22–23 Aug Gezici[45] 4,860
240 / 550
142 / 550
85 / 550
83 / 550
 Hung
21 Aug MetroPoll[47] 2,520
259 / 550
133 / 550
74 / 550
84 / 550
 Hung
20 Aug CHP[48] –
238 / 550
149 / 550
76 / 550
86 / 550
 Hung
27 Jul AKAM[55] 1,412
254 / 550
147 / 550
63 / 550
86 / 550
 Hung
7 JunJune 2015 general election–
258 / 550
132 / 550
80 / 550
80 / 550
 Hung
12 Jun 2011 June 2011 general election –
327 / 550
135 / 550
53 / 550
35 / 550
 104

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Gezici survey: Public holds Erdoğan, AK Party responsible for recent chaos". TodaysZaman. 19 September 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  2. ↑ http://andy-ar.com/andy-ar-1-kasim-secim-tahmin-arastirmasi/
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 http://t24.com.tr/haber/konda-1-kasim-secimleri-icin-son-arastirmasini-duyurdu-iste-sonuclar,314571
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 http://www.konda.com.tr/tr/raporlar/Ekim29_Kamuoyu_Aciklama.pdf
  5. ↑ http://www.ahaber.com.tr/gundem/2015/10/28/adil-gurun-1-kasim-arastirmasindan-sasirtici-sonuclar-ak-parti-yuzde-47
  6. ↑ "Cumhuriyet Gazetesi – (Fotoğraf) Gezici AKP'yi bir haftada iki puan artırdı". cumhuriyet.com.tr. 28 October 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  7. ↑ http://medyascope.tv/2015/10/28/1-kasimda-sandiktan-ne-cikacak-ankara-katliami-ardindan-metropollun-yaptigi-son-secim-anketi/
  8. ↑ "ORC seçim anketi sonucu partilerin oy oranları". İnternethaber.com. 26 October 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  9. 1 2 http://www.kurdtek.net/blog/2015/10/22/1-kasim-genel-secimleri-icin-kamuoyu-yoklamasi-2/
  10. 1 2 "AKAM Araştırma". avrasyaarastirma.com. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  11. 1 2 "Son seçim anketinde AK Parti tek başına iktidar – Sayfa 7 – Galeri – Türkiye – 29 Ekim 2015 Perşembe". sabah.com.tr. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  12. ↑ "Konsensus son seçim anketini açıkladı – Sayfa 2 – Galeri – Türkiye – 29 Ekim 2015 Perşembe". sabah.com.tr. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  13. 1 2 "Cumhuriyet Gazetesi – (Fotoğraf) Gezici Araştırma'dan son seçim anketi". cumhuriyet.com.tr. 20 October 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  14. 1 2 "Cumhuriyet Gazetesi – (Fotoğraf) Gezici Araştırma'dan son seçim anketi". cumhuriyet.com.tr. 20 October 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  15. ↑ "MAK'ın son seçim anketinde partilerin oyları". gazetevatan.com. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  16. ↑ "İşte son seçim anketi". İhlas Haber Ajansı. 19 October 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  17. ↑ "SİYASİ TERCİHLER, TOPLUMSAL KAYGILAR VE GÜNCEL DURUM (10–16 EKİM 2015) – Perspektif Strateji Araştırma". perspektifs.com. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  18. ↑ http://www.yenisafak.com/secim-2015-kasim/iste-basbakana-bugun-sunulan-anket-2328795?utm_source=facebook-yenisafak&utm_medium=facebook-yenisafak&utm_campaign=facebook-yenisafak
  19. ↑ "1 Kasım günü ufukta yine koalisyon var!". sozcu.com.tr. 17 October 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  20. ↑ http://www.ssamer.com/Rapor_Detay-Ekim_2015_Türkiye_Geneli_Seçim_Araştırması_-1021-3.html
  21. ↑ http://www.metropoll.com.tr/upload/content/files/1788-turkiyenin-nabzi-ekim-2015.pdf
  22. ↑ "Yandaş ankette bile tek başına iktidar yok". sozcu.com.tr. 7 October 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  23. ↑ "Turkish poll shows ruling AK Party support short of majority". TodaysZaman. 15 October 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  24. 1 2 "Murat Gezici". Twitter. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  25. ↑ http://www.tusiar.com/FileUpload/bs313608/File/secime_1_ay_kala_turkiye_de_son_siyasi_durum_arastirmasi.pdf
  26. 1 2 "Cumhuriyet Gazetesi – (Fotoğraf) AKP % 40’ın altında". cumhuriyet.com.tr. 5 October 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  27. ↑ "Seçim anketinde şaşırtan sonuçlar çıktı!". sozcu.com.tr. 23 September 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  28. ↑ "AKAM Araştırma". avrasyaarastirma.com. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  29. ↑ http://www.makdanismanlik.org/yonetim/pdfler/MAK%20DANI%C5%9EMANLIK%20EYL%C3%9CL%202015%20S%C4%B0YAS%C4%B0%20G%C3%9CNDEM%20ARA%C5%9ETIRMASI.docx
  30. ↑ "Milletvekili listeleri sonrası ilk seçim anketi sonucu". MЭLLЭYET HABER – TЬRKЭYE'NЭN HABER SЭTESЭ. 29 September 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  31. ↑ "Türkiye Gazetesi". turkiyegazetesi.com.tr. 29 October 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  32. ↑ "Türkiye Gazetesi". turkiyegazetesi.com.tr. 29 October 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  33. ↑ Celal Başlangıç. "Sınırötesinden seçim anketi: AKP yüzde 38'lerde, HDP 15'e dayandı". t24.com.tr. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  34. ↑ Poll takes into account overseas results
  35. ↑ Murat Sevinç. "Gezici araştırması: Yüzde 41'lik kesim kaos ortamından Erdoğan'ı sorumlu tutuyor". Diken. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  36. ↑ "Son seçim anketi açıklandı". MİLLİYET HABER – TÜRKİYE'NİN HABER SİTESİ. 19 September 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  37. ↑ "4 FARKLI ŞİRKET ARAŞTIRDI.. BAŞBAKAN TALİMAT VERDİ!". Haber Ay. 22 September 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  38. ↑ "Son erken seçim anketi sonuçları SONAR açıkladı". İnternethaber.com. 16 September 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  39. ↑ "Cumhuriyet Gazetesi – KONDA'dan 1 Kasım seçimleri için bomba anket". cumhuriyet.com.tr. 30 September 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  40. ↑ "Cumhuriyet Gazetesi – (Fotoğraf) Çok çarpıcı bir anket de seçim sonucunu bilen ANDY AR'dan". cumhuriyet.com.tr. 15 September 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  41. ↑ "Son seçim anketinde 2 partiye büyük şok!". İnternethaber.com. 3 September 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  42. ↑ "KamuAR Araştırma". Twitter. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  43. ↑ "Birinci Yılını Dolduran Erdoğan'a Destek: Yüzde 53.1". Haberler.com. 28 August 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  44. 1 2 "HDP’nin Anketinde AK Parti ve MHP’ye Kötü Haber". sondakika.com. 24 August 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  45. 1 2 "AKP’nin oyu 11 puan eridi, 18 vekil gidici!". sozcu.com.tr. 28 August 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  46. ↑ "Türkiye Gazetesi". turkiyegazetesi.com.tr. 29 October 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  47. 1 2 "Metropoll'ün son anketine göre HDP'nin oy oranı yüzde 15 bandına dayandı!". t24.com.tr. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  48. 1 2 "Kılıçdaroğlu'nun masasındaki son anket". Haber7. 30 September 2014. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
  49. ↑ "Cumhuriyet Gazetesi – (Fotoğraf) İşte son seçim anketi". cumhuriyet.com.tr. 18 August 2015. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
  50. ↑ turkiyegazetesi editor (13 August 2015). "İşte son seçim anketi! AK Parti'nin oyu yükselişte". turkiyegazetesi.com.tr. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
  51. ↑ "Seçimleri bilen Andy-Ar'ın en kapsamlı anket sonuçları". internethaber.com. 12 August 2015. Retrieved 30 October 2015.
  52. ↑ http://www.orcarastirma.com.tr/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/AĞUSTOS-2015-GÜNDEM-ARAŞTIRMASI-RAPORU.pdf
  53. ↑ "7 Haziran'da güldüren araştırma şirketine göre son oy oranları". BirGun.net. 10 August 2015. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
  54. ↑ "Cumhuriyet Gazetesi – SONAR anketinde sürpriz sonuçlar". cumhuriyet.com.tr. 5 August 2015. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
  55. 1 2 "‘Erken seçim’den tek başına iktidar çıkar mı?". Telgrafhane / Emeğin yanında, Aydınlanmanın izinde. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
  56. ↑ "Support for AK Party increases as majority calls for early elections". DailySabah. 23 July 2015. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
  57. ↑ "Seçim sonrası anketinden flaş sonuçlar". sozcu.com.tr. 9 July 2015. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
  58. ↑ "Erken seçimde oyunu artıracak 2 parti". Telgrafhane / Emeğin yanında, Aydınlanmanın izinde. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
  59. ↑ "İşte erken seçim anketi". sozcu.com.tr. 24 June 2015. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
  60. ↑ "Seçimlerden sonra ilk araştırma…". sozcu.com.tr. 10 June 2015. Retrieved 21 August 2015.
  61. ↑ http://medyascope.tv/2015/10/28/1-kasimda-sandiktan-ne-cikacak-ankara-katliami-ardindan-metropollun-yaptigi-son-secim-anketi/
  62. ↑ "İşte son yapılan anket sonuçları". sozcu.com.tr. 5 October 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  63. ↑ "Seçim anketinde şaşırtan sonuçlar çıktı!". sozcu.com.tr. 23 September 2015. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
  64. ↑ "Her kapıyı tek tek çalın". MİLLİYET HABER – TÜRKİYE'NİN HABER SİTESİ. Retrieved 28 October 2015.
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