Opinion polling in the 43rd Canadian federal election
This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted from the 2015 Canadian federal election leading up to the 43rd Canadian federal election, which is scheduled for October 21, 2019.
Pre-campaign period
Graphical summary
| Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | BQ | Green | Margin of error[1] |
Sample size[2] |
Polling method[3] | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research | April 27, 2016 | HTML | 49 | 30 | 14 | 3 | 4 | ±1.39 pp | 4,998 | IVR | 19 |
| Nanos Research | April 22, 2016 | HTML | 43.2 | 25.8 | 19.3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | ±3.1 pp | 1,000 | Telephone | 17.4 |
| Mainstreet Research | April 15, 2016 | HTML | 48 | 30 | 14 | 3 | 5 | ±1.38 pp | 5,012 | IVR | 18 |
| EKOS | April 15, 2016 | 44.1 | 28.5 | 12.0 | 4.4 | 6.7 | ±2.9 pp | 1,176 | IVR | 15.6 | |
| Abacus Data | April 13, 2016 | 49 | 26 | 13 | 5 | 5 | ±2.6 pp | 1,500 | online | 23 | |
| Forum Research | April 5, 2016 | 51 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 3 | ±3 pp | 1,455 | IVR | 23 | |
| Innovative Research | March 30, 2016 | 46 | 30 | 12 | 5 | 6 | n/a | 2,456 | online | 16 | |
| EKOS | March 29, 2016 | 42.1 | 31.7 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 6.4 | ±2.2 pp | 2,019 | IVR | 10.4 | |
| Abacus Data | March 23, 2016 | 47 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 6 | ±2.6 pp | 1,500 | online | 19 | |
| Abacus Data | March 18, 2016 | 44 | 29 | 16 | 4 | 6 | ±2.6 pp | 1,500 | online | 15 | |
| Forum Research | March 15, 2016 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 3 | ±2 pp | 1,567 | IVR | 12 | |
| Forum Research | February 17, 2016 | 49 | 32 | 10 | 3 | 5 | ±3 pp | 1,406 | IVR | 17 | |
| Léger Marketing | February 4, 2016 | 49 | 27 | 15 | 3 | 5 | ±2.1 pp | 1,524 | online | 22 | |
| EKOS | January 18, 2016 | 46.7 | 25.3 | 15.9 | 3.9 | 7.0 | ±1.9 pp | 2,598 | online/telephone | 21.4 | |
| Mainstreet Research | January 15, 2016 | HTML | 44 | 32 | 16 | 3 | 5 | ±1.39 pp | 4,937 | IVR | 12 |
| Abacus Data | January 12, 2016 | 45 | 28 | 17 | 5 | 5 | ±2.6 pp | 1,500 | online | 17 | |
| EKOS | December 10, 2015 | 46.3 | 27.2 | 15.3 | 3.4 | 6.7 | ±2.2 pp | 1,956 | online/telephone | 19.1 | |
| Forum Research | December 8, 2015 | 46 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 4 | ±3 pp | 1,369 | IVR | 14 | |
| Abacus Data | November 25, 2015 | 49 | 24 | 16 | 5 | 5 | ±2.6 pp | 1,500 | online | 25 | |
| Forum Research | November 17, 2015 | 45 | 37 | 10 | 4 | 3 | ±3 pp | 909 | IVR | 8 | |
| Forum Research | November 7, 2015 | 55 | 25 | 12 | 4 | 3 | ±3 pp | 1,256 | IVR | 30 | |
| 2015 Election | October 19, 2015 | HTML | 39.5 | 31.9 | 19.7 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 7.6 | |||
Notes
- 1 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
- 2 Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters.
- 3 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next, with the fraction in parentheses indicating the proportion of independent data compared to the previous published poll in the series.
- LV Identifies polling firms that explicitly apply a "likely voter" turnout adjustment to their top-line results.
Leadership polls
Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on who would make the best Prime Minister:
With Ambrose
| Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Justin Trudeau | Rona Ambrose | Thomas Mulcair | Rhéal Fortin | Elizabeth May | Margin of Error[1] | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nanos Research | April 29, 2016 | 51.6 | 15.2 | 10.7 | 0.8 | 5.8 | ±3.1 pp | 36.4 | |
| Nanos Research | April 22, 2016 | 50.4 | 16.7 | 10.6 | 0.7 | 5.8 | ±3.1 pp | 33.7 | |
| Nanos Research | April 15, 2016 | 51.1 | 16.6 | 9.7 | 0.5 | 6.0 | ±3.1 pp | 34.5 | |
| Nanos Research | April 8, 2016 | 52.3 | 16.9 | 10.6 | 0.5 | 4.2 | ±3.1 pp | 35.4 | |
| Nanos Research | April 1, 2016 | 51.3 | 17.5 | 11.6 | 0.8 | 3.3 | ±3.1 pp | 33.8 | |
| Innovative Research | March 30, 2016 | 60.0 | 21.0 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | n/a | 39.0 | |
| Nanos Research | March 24, 2016 | 51.4 | 17.0 | 11.6 | 1.1 | 3.9 | ±3.1 pp | 34.4 | |
| Nanos Research | March 18, 2016 | 52.8 | 14.9 | 12.7 | 0.6 | 4.4 | ±3.1 pp | 37.9 | |
| Nanos Research | March 11, 2016 | 52.7 | 14.6 | 12.8 | 0.7 | 4.7 | ±3.1 pp | 38.1 | |
| Nanos Research | March 4, 2016 | 53.7 | 14.2 | 11.3 | 0.9 | 5.3 | ±3.1 pp | 39.5 | |
| Nanos Research | February 26, 2016 | 53.5 | 13.9 | 10.9 | 0.9 | 5.0 | ±3.1 pp | 39.6 | |
| Nanos Research | February 19, 2016 | 51.4 | 14.9 | 11.4 | 1.0 | 4.8 | ±3.1 pp | 36.5 | |
| Nanos Research | February 12, 2016 | 51.4 | 15.1 | 10.7 | 1.0 | 4.4 | ±3.1 pp | 36.3 | |
| Léger Marketing | February 9, 2016 | 40 | 9 | 10 | 4 | ±2.1 pp | 30 | ||
| Nanos Research | February 5, 2016 | 51.0 | 14.8 | 12.2 | 0.9 | 4.1 | ±3.1 pp | 36.2 | |
| Nanos Research | January 29, 2016 | 50.0 | 14.9 | 13.0 | 0.7 | 4.4 | ±3.1 pp | 35.1 | |
| Nanos Research | January 22, 2016 | 52.2 | 14.6 | 11.5 | 0.9 | 3.5 | ±3.1 pp | 37.6 | |
| Nanos Research | January 15, 2016 | 53.5 | 13.7 | 10.6 | 1.0 | 4.5 | ±3.1 pp | 39.8 | |
| Nanos Research | January 8, 2016 | 53.2 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 1.1 | 4.2 | ±3.1 pp | 40.0 | |
| Nanos Research | January 2, 2016 | 52.6 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 1.2 | 4.8 | ±3.1 pp | 40.5 | |
| Nanos Research | December 25, 2015 | 53.1 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 1.2 | 5.1 | ±3.1 pp | 40.4 | |
| Nanos Research | December 18, 2015 | 50.2 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 1.3 | 5.1 | ±3.1 pp | 37.2 | |
| Nanos Research | December 11, 2015 | 51.5 | 13.7 | 12.8 | 1.2 | 5.0 | ±3.1 pp | 37.8 | |
| Nanos Research | December 4, 2015 | 53.7 | 13.7 | 12.0 | 1.4 | 4.2 | ±3.1 pp | 40.0 | |
With Ambrose and Harper
| Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | Justin Trudeau | Stephen Harper/ Rona Ambrose |
Thomas Mulcair | Rhéal Fortin | Elizabeth May | Margin of Error[1] | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nanos Research | November 27, 2015 | 50.9 | 16.3 | 12.3 | 1.6 | 4.8 | ±3.1 pp | 34.6 | |
| Nanos Research | November 20, 2015 | 53.3 | 17.2 | 11.6 | 1.2 | 4.6 | ±3.1 pp | 36.1 | |
| Nanos Research | November 13, 2015 | 50.9 | 18.4 | 13.0 | 1.3 | 5.0 | ±3.1 pp | 32.5 |
References
See also
- Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2015
- Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2011
- Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2008
- Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2006
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