43rd Canadian federal election

43rd Canadian federal election

On or before October 21, 2019

338 seats in the House of Commons of Canada 170 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls   Leader Justin Trudeau Rona Ambrose Tom Mulcair Party Liberal Conservative New Democratic Leader since April 14, 2013 November 5, 2015 (interim until May 27, 2017) March 24, 2012 (until April 10, 2018 at latest) Leader's seat Papineau Sturgeon River—Parkland Outremont Last election 184 seats, 39.47% 99 seats, 31.89% 44 seats, 19.71% Current seats 184 98 44   BQ Leader Rhéal Fortin Elizabeth May Party Bloc Québécois Green Leader since October 22, 2015 (interim until TBD) August 27, 2006 Leader's seat Rivière-du-Nord Saanich—Gulf Islands Last election 10 seats, 4.66% 1 seat, 3.45% Current seats 10 1

Incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Liberal

The 43rd Canadian federal election is scheduled to take place on or before October 21, 2019. The October 21 date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date procedures in the Canada Elections Act^[1] but the Act does not prevent the Governor General of Canada from issuing the writs of election at an earlier date.

Background

The 2015 federal election resulted in a Liberal majority government headed by Justin Trudeau. The Conservatives became the Official Opposition (with Stephen Harper announcing his resignation as party leader) and the New Democrats (NDP) became the third party. While members of the Bloc Québécois and the Greens were elected to the House, both failed to achieve the required number of MPs for official party status and BQ leader Gilles Duceppe announcing his resignation shortly after the election.

After Tom Mulcair failed his April 2016 leadership review with 48% of the delegate vote, the NDP will hold a leadership convention by April 2018.^[2]

Electoral reform

In June 2015, Justin Trudeau pledged to implement voter reform if elected, saying, "We are committed to ensuring that 2015 is the last election held under first-past-the-post."^[3][4] Due to the NDP's support^[5] for this initiative as well, it is possible that the next election will be held using a different voting system.

Current standings

  Summary of the current standings of the House of Commons of Canada

Party		Party leader	Seats
			2015	Current
	Liberal	Justin Trudeau	184	184
	Conservative	Rona Ambrose	99	98
	New Democratic	Tom Mulcair	44	44
	Bloc Québécois	Rhéal Fortin	10	10
	Green	Elizabeth May	1	1
	Vacant			1
Total			338	338

Timeline

2015

• October 19, 2015: The Liberal Party of Canada wins a majority government in the 42nd Canadian federal election. Outgoing Prime Minister Stephen Harper announces his intention to resign as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.^[6]
• October 22, 2015: Gilles Duceppe resigns as leader of the Bloc Québécois and is replaced on an interim-basis by Rivière-du-Nord MP Rhéal Fortin.^[7]
• November 4, 2015: Justin Trudeau is sworn in as Prime Minister of Canada.^[8]
• November 5, 2015: Sturgeon River—Parkland MP and former cabinet minister Rona Ambrose is elected interim Conservative leader.^[9]
• December 3, 2015: The 42nd Parliament is convened.^[10]

2016

• March 23, 2016: Jim Hillyer, Conservative MP for Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner, passes away after an apparent heart attack, triggering a by-election in his riding.^[11]
• April 10, 2016: 52% of delegates at the 2016 NDP convention voted in support of a leadership review motion to hold a new leadership race within 24 months.^[2] Party leader Tom Mulcair announces he will stay on as leader until his replacement is chosen.^[12]

2017

• May 27, 2017: The Conservative Party of Canada will elect their next leader.^[13]

2018

• April 2018: Last possible month for the New Democratic Party to hold a leadership race to elect their next leader after ousting Mulcair in 2016.^[12]

Opinion polls

In the 42nd Canadian Election, pollsters managed to predict the election result accurately. In the immediate aftermath of the vote, support for Trudeau's Liberals increased significantly at the expense of the Conservatives and the NDP, with the latter dropping to their lowest level in a decade.^[14]

Election spending

Before the campaign, there were no limits to what a political party, candidate, or third party (corporations, unions, special interest groups, etc.) can spend: spending rules are only in force after the writs have been dropped and the campaign has begun.^[15]

Reimbursements for political parties and candidates

Political parties receive a reimbursement for 50 per cent of their election expenses during the writ period. Similarly, electoral district associations receive a reimbursement of 60 per cent of their election expenses during the writ period. Both reimbursements are publicly funded.^[16]

Registered third parties

A person or group must register as a third party immediately after incurring election advertising expenses totalling $500 or more.^[17] There are strict limits on advertising expenses, and specific limits that can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district. Registered third parties are subject to an election advertising expenses limit of $150,000. Of that amount, no more than $8,788 can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district.^[18]

See also

• Conservative Party of Canada leadership election, 2017
• Next New Democratic Party leadership election
• Next Bloc Québécois leadership election

References

1. "Amendment to Canada Elections Act". Queen's Printer for Canada. November 6, 2006. Retrieved July 29, 2011.
2. Kirkup, Kristy (10 April 2016). "NDP rejects Mulcair as leader, votes in support of holding leadership race". Ottawa Citizen. Canadian Press. Retrieved 10 April 2016.
3. John Geddes. "Can Justin Trudeau fix the vote with electoral reform?". Macleans.ca. Retrieved 9 January 2016.
4. "Justin Trudeau unveils Liberal platform". CBC Player. 6 January 2016. Retrieved 9 January 2016.
5. "Mulcair Promises Proportional Representation If NDP Wins". The Huffington Post. 2 January 2015. Retrieved 9 January 2016.
6. "Stephen Harper resigns as Conservative leader". CTV News. October 19, 2015. Retrieved October 19, 2015.
7. Perreaux, Les (October 22, 2015). "Bloc leader Duceppe, former PQ interim leader both resign". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved November 5, 2015.
8. "Lifting the curtain on Harper's covert exit strategy". Ottawa Citizen. October 28, 2015. Retrieved October 29, 2015.
9. "Rona Ambrose named interim leader of the Conservative Party of Canada". The National Post. November 5, 2015. Retrieved November 5, 2015.
10. Mehler Paperny, Anna (November 4, 2015). "Canada’s parliament will reconvene in December". Global News. Retrieved November 5, 2015.
11. "Alberta Conservative MP Jim Hillyer dies at age 41". Toronto Star. March 23, 2016. Retrieved March 23, 2016.
12. Wherry, Aaron (April 10, 2016). "NDP votes in favour of holding new leadership race". CBC News. Retrieved 10 April 2016.
13. "Mark your calendars, federal Conservatives: You’ll be electing a new leader on May 27, 2017". National Post. Retrieved January 19, 2016.
14. http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/95187c50-8143-4ff2-ab57-0af551fe3875Federal%20Political%20Issues%20News%20Release%20(2015%2011%2008)%20Forum%20Research.pdf
15. "Elections Canada Online – Third Party Election Advertising Expenses Limits". elections.ca. Retrieved August 3, 2015.
16. "Elections Canada Online – The Electoral System of Canada". elections.ca. Retrieved August 3, 2015.
17. "Elections Canada Online – Election advertising handbook for Third Parties, Financial Agents and Auditors (EC 20227) – July 2015". elections.ca. Retrieved August 10, 2015.
18. "Elections Canada Online – Limits on Election Advertising Expenses Incurred by Third Parties". elections.ca. Retrieved August 10, 2015.

External links

• Elections Canada