Saskatchewan general election, 2016

Saskatchewan general election, 2016

April 4, 2016

61 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan 31 seats needed for a majority   First party Second party   Leader Brad Wall Cam Broten Party Saskatchewan New Democratic Leader since March 15, 2004 March 9, 2013 Leader's seat Swift Current Saskatoon Massey Place (lost in Saskatoon Westview) Last election 49 seats, 64.25% 9 seats, 31.97% Seats before 47 9 Seats won 51 10 Seat change 2 1 Popular vote 270,776 131,137 Percentage 62.36% 30.20% Swing 1.89pp 1.72pp

Electoral map.

Premier before election Brad Wall Saskatchewan Premier after election Brad Wall Saskatchewan

The 28th Saskatchewan general election, was held on April 4, 2016, to elect members of the Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan. The Lieutenant Governor dissolved the Legislature on March 8, 2016, setting the election date for April 4. The election resulted in the Saskatchewan Party winning its third majority government. This is the first time in 90 years that a party other than the Saskatchewan New Democratic Party (NDP) or its predecessor the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF) has won a third consecutive majority mandate in Saskatchewan. It is also the first time that a centre-right party has won three consecutive elections in the province.

Date

Under The Legislative Assembly Act, 2007 (Saskatchewan), the election "must be held" on the first Monday of November in the fourth calendar year following the previous election. As the last election was held in 2011, that date would be November 2, 2015. However, the act also provides that if the election period would overlap with a federal election period, the provincial election is to be postponed until the first Monday of the following April.^[1] Under the federal fixed-term act, the 42nd general election occurred on October 19, 2015, overlapping election periods by approximately two weeks. Because the federal Conservatives called the election on August 2, 2015 for October 19, the Saskatchewan election was held on April 4, 2016, even though the Lieutenant Governor retained the power to dissolve the Legislative Assembly early on the Premier's advice.

Results

Due to an increase in the number of ridings (from 58 to 61), both parties increased their total number of seats.

The Saskatchewan Party maintained its sweep of the southern and central rural ridings, and also held on to a majority of seats in Regina and Saskatoon. The NDP seemed to have some momentum after winning federal seats for the first time in a decade at the 2015 federal election. However, it was unable to recover much of the ground it lost in its severe defeat of almost five years earlier. It only netted a one-seat gain, and for the second consecutive election saw its leader unseated in his own riding; Cam Broten was defeated in the reconfigured riding of Saskatoon Westview by a slim margin of 232 votes. The results reflected the opinion polling done prior to the election, with the popular vote falling within the margins of error, though the Saskatchewan Party won more seats than what was projected.^[2]

Election summary

Summary of the April 4, 2016 Saskatchewan Legislature election

Party		Leader	Candidates[3]	Seats				Popular vote
				2011	Dissol.	2016	+/-	Votes	%	% change
	Saskatchewan	Brad Wall	61	49	47	51	+2	270,776	62.36%	-1.89
	New Democratic	Cam Broten	61	9	9	10	+1	131,137	30.20%	-1.72
	Liberal	Darrin Lamoureux	61	–	–	0	–	15,568	3.59%	+3.03
	Green	Victor Lau	58	–	–	0	–	7,967	1.83%	-1.04
	Progressive Conservative	Rick Swenson	18	–	–	0	–	5,571	1.28%	+0.95
	Western Independence	Frank Serfas	4	–	–	0	–	318	0.07%
	Independent		5	–	–	0	–	1,693	0.39%
	Vacant			–	2	N/A
Total			268	58	58	61			100%

Detailed analysis

Elections to the 28th Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan – top 5 candidates from each riding, by party

Party		Candidates	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
	Saskatchewan	61	51	10	–	–	–
	New Democratic	61	10	50	1	–	–
	Liberal	61	–	–	46	8	6
	Green	58	–	–	4	47	5
	Progressive Conservative	18	–	–	10	5	3
	Western Independence	4	–	–	–	1	1
	Independents	5	–	1	–	–	4

Incumbents not contesting their seats

Retiring incumbents

Saskatchewan Party

• Bob Bjornerud, Melville-Saltcoats^[4]
• June Draude, Kelvington-Wadena^[5]
• Yogi Huyghebaert, Wood River^[6]
• Don Toth, Moosomin^[7]
• Ken Krawetz, Canora-Pelly^[8]
• Doreen Eagles, Estevan^[9]
• Wayne Elhard, Cypress Hills^[10]
• Russ Marchuk, Regina Douglas Park^[11]

New Democrats

• John Nilson, Regina Lakeview^[12]

Lost nomination election

Saskatchewan Party

• Bill Hutchinson, Regina South^[13]

Resigned before election

Saskatchewan Party

• Darryl Hickie, Prince Albert Carlton (Resigned March 9, 2015)^[14]
• Rob Norris, Saskatoon Greystone (Resigned Dec. 31, 2015)^[15]

Opinion polls

Polling Firm	Date of Polling	Link	Saskatchewan	New Democratic	Green	Liberal	PC	Other
Forum Research	April 1–2, 2016	PDF	60.8	30.1	3.3	5.5		0.4
Insights West	March 31–April 2, 2016	HTML	61	29	4	4
Mainstreet Research	March 31, 2016	HTML	60	31	5	4
Insightrix	March 28–30, 2016	HTML	60	30	3	5	3
Insights West	March 23–25, 2016	HTML	56	34	3	6
Insightrix	March 14–16, 2016	HTML	61	29	2	6	2	0
Mainstreet Research	March 15, 2016	HTML	53	35	4	8
Insightrix	March 8–10, 2016	HTML	57	29		7
Mainstreet Research	March 8, 2016	HTML	51	37	3	8
Forum Research	March 7, 2016	PDF	57	33	3	7
Mainstreet Research	March 1, 2016	HTML	55	33	3	9
Mainstreet Research	February 23, 2016	HTML	52	34	4	10
Mainstreet Research	February 11, 2016	HTML	56	32	4	8
Mainstreet Research	January 4, 2016	HTML	59	28	3	7	2
Insightrix	November 10–12, 2015	HTML	54	25	4	14	3
Mainstreet Research	October 6, 2015	HTML	57	32	3	8
Oracle	May 19–25, 2015	PDF	60.8	26.7	4.1	4.8		3.7
Insightrix	April 7–9, 2015	HTML	58	31	3	6	2
Insightrix	April 9–13, 2014	HTML	63.2	27.4	3.8	5.1	0.5
Insightrix	July 6–13, 2013	HTML	60.1	28.7	6	5
Insightrix	May 1–8, 2013	HTML	60.7	29.4	3	4
Insightrix	June 4–8, 2012	HTML	60.8	29.4	4.3	1	0.2
2011 election	November 7, 2011	PDF	64.25	31.97	2.87	0.56	0.33	0.02

Riding-by-riding results

People in bold represent cabinet ministers and the speaker. Party leaders are italicized. The symbols ** indicates MLAs who are not running again.

Northwest Saskatchewan

Electoral District		Candidates					Incumbent
		SK Party	New Democratic	Liberal	Green	Prog. Conservative
Athabasca		Philip Elliott 644	Buckley Belanger 1,756	Michael Wolverine 262	Max Morin 53			Buckley Belanger
Cut Knife-Turtleford		Larry Doke 5,765	Danica Lorer 958	Rod Gopher 255	Tammy Fairley Saunders 90	Rick Cline 154		Larry Doke
Lloydminster		Colleen Young 4,350	Michelle Oleksyn 432	Dolores Pahtayken 202	Lisa Grant 65			Colleen Young
Meadow Lake		Jeremy Harrison 4,395	Dwayne Lasas 1,430	Eric McCrimmon 305	Eric Schalm 107			Jeremy Harrison
Rosthern-Shellbrook		Scott Moe 4,792	Rose Freeman 1,288	Orrin M. Greyeyes 468	Jade Duckett 119			Scott Moe
The Battlefords		Herb Cox 4,296	Rob Feist 2,260	Dexter Gopher 438	Josh Hunt 83			Herb Cox

Northeast Saskatchewan

Electoral District		Candidates					Incumbent
		SK Party	New Democratic	Liberal	Green	Other
Batoche		Delbert Kirsch 4,471	Clayton DeBray 2,211	Graham Tweten 216	B Garneau I 103			Delbert Kirsch
Canora-Pelly		Terry Dennis 4,318	Theresa Wilson 1,323	Kyle Budz 216	Rachel Gregoire 102	Merv Malish (PC) 414 David Sawkiw (WIP) 51		Ken Krawetz**
Carrot River Valley		Fred Bradshaw 5,104	Sandy Ewen 1,369	Karalasingham Sadadcharam 131	Koreena Fibke 115			Fred Bradshaw
Cumberland		Thomas Sierzycki 1,610	Doyle Vermette 3,375	George Morin 352	Michael Taylor-Lessard 79			Doyle Vermette
Kelvington-Wadena		Hugh Nerlien 5,133	Dan Hiscock 1,354	Bernie Yuzdepski 132	Owen Swiderski 108	Tim Atchison (PC) 390 Walter Hrappsted (WIP) 218		June Draude**
Melfort		Kevin Phillips 5,579	Linsey Thornton 1,406	Bruce Ber 150	Tanner Wallace 102			Kevin Phillips
Prince Albert Carlton		Joe Hargrave 3,353	Shayne Lazarowich 2,670	Winston McKay 199	Asia Yellowtail 60			Vacant
Prince Albert Northcote		Victoria Jurgens 2,491	Nicole Rancourt 2,752	Jonathan Fraser 272	Trace Yellowtail 88			Victoria Jurgens
Saskatchewan Rivers		Nadine Wilson 4,584	Lyle Whitefish 2,010	Brenda McKnight 244				Nadine Wilson

West Central Saskatchewan

Electoral District		Candidates					Incumbent
		SK Party	New Democratic	Liberal	Green	Other
Arm River		Greg Brkich 6,187	Denise Leduc 1,457	Russ Collicott 207	Dale Dewar 241	Raymond Carrick (PC) 338		Greg Brkich Arm River-Watrous
Biggar-Sask Valley		Randy Weekes 5,972	Dan Richert 1,453	Faiza Kanwal 194	Ryan Lamarche 162			Randy Weekes Biggar
Humboldt-Watrous		Donna Harpauer 5,818	Adam Duke 1,588	Robert Tutka 212	Lori Ellen Harper 187			Donna Harpauer Humboldt
Kindersley		Bill Boyd 4,802	Charles Jedlicka 522	Darren Donald 171		Jason Dearborn (Ind.) 1,249 Terry Smith (PC) 323		Bill Boyd
Martensville-Warman		Nancy Heppner 6,854	Jasmine Calix 1,477	Michael McAteer 179	Darcy Robilliard 91	Pamela Spencer (WIP) 26		Nancy Heppner Martensville
Rosetown-Elrose		Jim Reiter 5,939	Glenn Wright 1,380	Adrian Janssens 146	Yvonne Potter Pihach 182			Jim Reiter

Southwest Saskatchewan

Electoral District		Candidates					Incumbent
		SK Party	New Democratic	Liberal	Green	Prog. Conservative
Cypress Hills		Doug Steele 5,774	Barb Genert 875	Charles Tait 99	Marie Crowe 133	John Goohsen 382		Wayne Elhard**
Lumsden-Morse		Lyle Stewart 6,256	Rhonda Phillips 1,655	Gerry Hiebert 242	Patricia Crowther 179			Lyle Stewart Thunder Creek
Moose Jaw North		Warren Michelson 4,425	Corey Atkinson 2,517	Brenda Colenutt 194	Caleb MacLowich 142			Warren Michelson
Moose Jaw Wakamow		Greg Lawrence 3,514	Karen Purdy 2,819	Terry Gabel 182	Shaun Drake 106			Greg Lawrence
Swift Current		Brad Wall 6,071	Hailey Clark 1,112	Glenn Smith 78	George Watson 103			Brad Wall
Wood River		Dave Marit 6,125	Brenda Shenher 991	Edward Ives 191	Judy Mergel 200	Brian Archer 544		Yogi Huyghebaert**

Southeast Saskatchewan

Electoral District		Candidates					Incumbent
		SK Party	New Democratic	Liberal	Green	Other
Cannington		Dan D'Autremont 6,444	Nathaniel Cole 674	Patrick Dennie 133	Tierra Lemieux 133	Kurt Schmidt (PC) 245		Dan D'Autremont
Estevan		Lori Carr 5,454	Tina Vuckovic 635	Oskar Karkabatov 118	Branden Schick 89	Paul Carroll (PC) 618 Cam Robock (Ind.) 91		Doreen Eagles**
Indian Head-Milestone		Don McMorris 5,118	Ashley Nemeth 1,848	David Delainey 264	Andrea Huang 143	Sheila Olson (PC) 225		Don McMorris
Last Mountain-Touchwood		Glen Hart 4,274	Mary Ann Harrison 1,572	David Buchocik 212	Justin Stranack 104	Rick Swenson (PC) 689 Frank J. Serfas (WIP) 23		Glen Hart
Melville-Saltcoats		Warren Kaeding 5,311	Leonard Dales 1,595	Igor Riabchyk 138		Diana Lowe (PC) 192 Trever Ratti (Ind.) 65		Bob Bjornerud**
Moosomin		Steven Bonk 5,142	Ashlee Hicks 1,032	Janice Palmer 191	Kate Ecklund 244	Lloyd Hauser (PC) 284 Trevor Bearance (Ind.) 218		Don Toth**
Weyburn-Big Muddy		Dustin Duncan 6,177	Karen Wormsbecker 1,260	Dylan Hart 122	Barry Dickie 155	Glenn Pohl (PC) 131		Dustin Duncan
Yorkton		Greg Ottenbreit 4,584	Greg Olson 1,432	Aaron Sinclair 184	Chad Gregoire 118			Greg Ottenbreit

Saskatoon

Electoral District		Candidates					Incumbent
		SK Party	New Democratic	Liberal	Green	Prog. Conservative
Saskatoon Centre		Brad Hoffmann 1,929	David Forbes 3,005	Roman Todos 203	Kathryn McDonald 129			David Forbes
Saskatoon Churchill-Wildwood		Lisa Lambert 3,978	Tanya Dunn-Pierce 3,044	Chris Chovin 414	Colleen Kennedy 128			Vacant Saskatoon Greystone
Saskatoon Eastview		Corey Tochor 4,169	Jesse Todd 3,198	Ana Ashraf 272	Shawn Setyo 170			Corey Tochor
Saskatoon Fairview		Jennifer Campeau 2,951	Vicki Mowat 2,769	Shah Rukh 308	Debbie McGraw 89			Jennifer Campeau
Saskatoon Meewasin		Roger Parent 3,500	Nicole White 2,977	Constance Sacher 307	Daeran Gall 148			Roger Parent
Saskatoon Northwest		Gordon Wyant 4,514	Dennel Pickering 2,004	Eric Steiner 254	Nylissa Valentine 121			Gordon Wyant
Saskatoon Nutana		Jamie Brandrick 2,474	Cathy Sproule 3,822	Robin Schneider 275	Jaime Fairley 190			Cathy Sproule
Saskatoon Riversdale		Marv Friesen 2,432	Danielle Chartier 2,691	Robert Rudachyk 354	Julia MacKay 107			Danielle Chartier
Saskatoon Silverspring-Sutherland		Paul Merriman 4,482	Zaigham Kayani 2,003	James Gorin 303	Evangeline Godron 127	Jeff Wortman 122		New District
Saskatoon Southeast		Don Morgan 5,247	Michael Karras 2,169	Pradipta Das 225	Deanna Robilliard 104			Don Morgan
Saskatoon Stonebridge-Dakota		Bronwyn Eyre 6,584	Steve Jimbo 2,300	Kevin Ber 377	Michelle Wendzina 149			New District
Saskatoon University		Eric Olauson 3,080	Jennifer Bowes 2,732	Ezaz Jaseem 370	Garnet Hall 129	Rose Buscholl 101		Paul Merriman‡ Saskatoon Sutherland
Saskatoon Westview		David Buckingham 3,892	Cam Broten 3,675	Naveed Anwar 240	Tammy McDonald 124			Cam Broten Saskatoon Massey Place
Saskatoon Willowgrove		Ken Cheveldayoff 6,603	Tajinder Grewal 2,196	Jason Gorin 229	Sarah Risk 129			Ken Cheveldayoff Saskatoon Silver Springs

Regina

Electoral District		Candidates					Incumbent
		SK Party	New Democratic	Liberal	Green	Other
Regina Coronation Park		Mark Docherty 3,008	Ted Jaleta 2,861	Tara Jijian 245	Melvin Pylypchuk 103	Douglas Hudgin (Ind.) 70		Mark Docherty
Regina Douglas Park		CJ Katz 2,531	Nicole Sarauer 3,242	Curt Schroeder 332	Victor Lau 401			Russ Marchuk**
Regina Elphinstone-Centre		Bill Stevenson 1,351	Warren McCall 2,648	Patrick Denis 297	Dianna Holigroski 178			Warren McCall
Regina Gardiner Park		Gene Makowsky 4,259	Faycal Haggui 2,459	Jesse Albanez 294	Liam Becker Lau 138			Gene Makowsky Regina Dewdney
Regina Lakeview		Dan Cooper 2,715	Carla Beck 4,358	Stewart Kerr 391	Larry Neufeld 251			John Nilson**
Regina Northeast		Kevin Doherty 3,920	Kathleen O’Reilly 2,912	Hafeez Chaudhuri 186	Marlene Macfarlane 155			Kevin Doherty
Regina Pasqua		Muhammad Fiaz 3,929	Heather McIntyre 3,631	Darrin Lamoureux 962	Mike Wright 186	Desmond Bilsky (PC) 174	New District
Regina Rochdale		Laura Ross 5,769	Brett Estey 3,554	Nadeem Islam 293	Billy Patterson 155			Laura Ross Regina Qu'Appelle Valley
Regina Rosemont		Kevin Dureau 3,101	Trent Wotherspoon 3,994	Reid Hill 162	Sara Piotrofsky 146			Trent Wotherspoon
Regina University		Tina Beaudry-Mellor 3,418	Aleana Young 3,001	Silvia Volodko 401	Yordanos Tesfamariam 165			Bill Hutchinson** Regina South
Regina Walsh Acres		Warren Steinley 3,575	Gloria Patrick 2,976	Reina Sinclair 312	Leonie Williams 106			Warren Steinley
Regina Wascana Plains		Christine Tell 6,107	Kaytlyn Criddle 2,525	Gulraiz Tariq 287	Jeremy O'Connor 153	Allen Mryglod (PC) 245		Christine Tell

References

1. "The Legislative Assembly Act, 2007" (PDF). The Queen's Printer (Saskatchewan). 2015. Retrieved April 4, 2016.
2. Grenier, Éric. "Poll Tracker: 2016 Saskatchewan provincial election". CBC Saskatchewan. CBC News. Retrieved 10 April 2016.
3. http://www.elections.sk.ca/candidates-political-parties/candidates/register-of-official-candidates-by-party---28th-general-election-march-19-final.pdf
4. "Former agriculture minister and Sask. Party founder Bob Bjornerud to retire". Global Regina. Canadian Press. May 12, 2014. Retrieved June 11, 2014.
5. "Social Services Minister June Draude to retire". CTV Regina News. Canadian Press. April 30, 2014. Retrieved July 22, 2014.
6. "Veteran Sask. MLA Yogi Huyghebaert says he won't run again in 2016". CTV Regina News. Canadian Press. February 26, 2014. Retrieved July 22, 2014.
7. http://www.whitewoodherald.com/newspaper/apr18.pdf
8. Jennifer Graham (April 28, 2014). "Deputy Premier Ken Krawetz set to retire after this term". Global Regina. Canadian Press. Retrieved June 11, 2014.
9. "Doreen Ealges will not seek re-election in Estevan". Estevan Mercury. Estevan Mecury. December 17, 2014. Retrieved March 11, 2016.
10. http://regina.ctvnews.ca/longtime-sask-party-mla-wayne-elhard-won-t-seek-re-election-1.2350413
11. "Former education minister Russ Marchuk retiring". CTV Regina News. Retrieved December 16, 2015.
12. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/veteran-ndp-mla-john-nilson-won-t-run-in-next-election-1.2879273
13. "Bill Hutchinson loses nomination bid". CBC. 29 April 2015. Retrieved 2 August 2015.
14. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/darryl-hickie-set-to-quit-mla-post-rejoin-police-work-in-march-1.2956951
15. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/mla-rob-norris-returning-to-university-of-saskatchewan-1.3371698