Manitoba general election, 2016

April 19, 2016 (2016-04-19)

57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba 29 seats needed for a majority

Turnout	57.53%
	First party	Second party	Third party

Leader	Brian Pallister	Greg Selinger	Rana Bokhari
Party	Progressive Conservative	New Democratic	Liberal
Leader since	July 30, 2012	October 17, 2009	October 26, 2013
Leader's seat	Fort Whyte	St. Boniface	ran in Fort Rouge (lost)
Last election	19 seats, 43.71%	37 seats, 46.16%	1 seat, 7.52%
Seats before	19	35	1
Seats won	40	14	3
Seat change	21	21	2
Popular vote	231,881	112,562	63,236
Percentage	53.01%	25.73%	14.46%
Swing	9.30%	20.43%	6.94%

Manitoba's 57 electoral districts, with results shown by riding. The cities of Brandon (top) and Winnipeg (bottom) are shown in insets.

Premier before election

Greg Selinger
New Democratic

Premier-designate

Brian Pallister
Progressive Conservative

The 41st general election of Manitoba was held on April 19, 2016 to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba, Canada.^[1] The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Greg Selinger, were defeated by the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba led by Brian Pallister, ending nearly 17 years of NDP reign.

At the time of the election, no party with the word "conservative" in the name governed any province or territory in Canada since the recent election in Newfoundland and Labrador. The Liberal Party of British Columbia and Saskatchewan Party were both centre-right parties which governed their respective provinces. The election also removed one of the two New Democratic governments in the country, the other being formed by the Alberta New Democratic Party.

Date

Under the Manitoba Elections Act, the general election is to be held on the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year, following the previous election.^[2] As the last election was held in 2011, that date would be October 6, 2015. However, the act also provides that if, as of January 1 of the election year, the election period would overlap with a federal election period, the provincial election is to be postponed until the third Tuesday of the following April.^[3] Under the federal fixed-term act, on January 1, 2015, the next federal election was tentatively scheduled for October 19, 2015, overlapping election periods by approximately three weeks. Thus the next Manitoba election has been scheduled for April 19, 2016. The Lieutenant Governor retains the power to dissolve the Legislative Assembly early.^[4] The legislature was dissolved and writs or the election were dropped on March 16, 2016.^[5]

Campaign

The election was relatively unique within Canadian politics, in that opinion polling indicated that most voters were basing their decision on the local candidate in their riding or the party platform, not the performance of the leader. In most Canadian elections, such as the 2016 Saskatchewan election, the behaviour of the party leader was a stronger motivator for constituents when voting;^[6] in the context of the Manitoba election, however, polling found that none of the three main party leaders was particularly well-liked or trusted by the electorate.^[7]

The campaigns of all three parties were based on themes of change, with even Selinger suggesting the incumbent NDP government would be able to respond to constituent concerns and change problematic policies in the leaders' debate.^[6] Opinion polling during the campaign suggested a lack of enthusiasm for all party leaders, and a general desire for change.^[8]

Election summary

Summary of the April 19, 2016 Manitoba Legislature election


Party		Leader	Candidates	Seats				Popular vote
Party		Leader	Candidates	2011	Dissol.	2016	+/-	Votes	%	% change
	Progressive Conservative	Brian Pallister	57	19	19	40	+21	231,881	53.01	+9.30
	New Democratic	Greg Selinger	57	37	35	14	-21	112,562	25.73	-20.43
	Liberal	Rana Bokhari	51	1	1	3	+2	63,236	14.46	+6.94
	Green	James Beddome	30	–	–	–	–	22,484	5.14	+2.62
	Manitoba Party	Gary Marshall	16	–	–	–	–	4,944	1.13	n/a
	Communist	Darrell Rankin	6	–	–	–	–	305	0.07	+0.03
	Independents		4	–	–	–	–	2,031	0.46	+0.41
	Vacant^{[lower-alpha 1]}				2
Total			221	57	57	57		437,443

Summary results

↓
40	14	3
Progressive Conservative	New Democratic	Liberal

Elections to the 41st Manitoba Legislature – seats won/lost by party, 2011–2016
Party		2011	Gain from (loss to)			2016
Party		2011	NDP	PC	Lib	2016
	New Democratic	37		(21)	(2)	14
	Progressive Conservative	19	21			40
	Liberal	1	2			3
Total		57	23	(21)	(2)	57

Elections to the 41st Manitoba Legislature – top 5 candidates from each riding, by party
	Candidates	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Progressive Conservative	57	40	11	6	–	–
New Democratic	57	14	28	12	3	–
Liberal	51	3	11	31	6	–
Green	30	–	4	5	20	1
Manitoba Party	16	–	2	1	5	7
Independent	4	–	1	–	3	–

Party candidates in 2nd place
Party in 1st place		Party in 2nd place						Total
Party in 1st place		PC	NDP	Lib	Grn	MB	Ind	Total
	Progressive Conservative	–	26	8	3	2	1	40
	New Democratic	10	–	3	1	–		14
	Liberal	1	2	–	–	–	–	3
Total		11	28	11	4	2	1	57

Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd place results
Parties		Seats
█ Progressive Conservative	█ New Democratic	36
█ Progressive Conservative	█ Liberal	9
█ Progressive Conservative	█ Green	3
█ Progressive Conservative	█ Manitoba Party	2
█ Progressive Conservative	█ Independent	1
█ New Democratic	█ Liberal	5
█ New Democratic	█ Green	1
Total		57

Incumbents not contesting their seats

Retiring incumbents
	Riding	Incumbent
NDP
	Assiniboia	Jim Rondeau^[10]
	Dauphin	Stan Struthers^[11]
	Dawson Trail	Ron Lemieux
	Fort Rouge	Jennifer Howard
	Radisson	Bidhu Jha^[12]
	St. Johns	Gord Mackintosh
	St. Vital	Nancy Allan^[13]
	Seine River	Theresa Oswald
	Transcona	Daryl Reid
Progressive Conservative
	Agassiz	Stu Briese^[14]
	Riding Mountain	Leanne Rowat^[14]
	River East	Bonnie Mitchelson^[15]

Opinion polls

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	NDP	PC	Liberal	Green	Other
Insights West	02016-4-18 !April 18, 2016	HTML	28	53	10	7	1
Insightrix Research	02016-4-18 !April 18, 2016	HTML	22	49	19	9	1
Forum Research	02016-4-17 !April 17, 2016	PDF	21	52	18	9
Mainstreet Research	02016-4-14 !April 14, 2016	HTML	26	55	11	9
Insights West	02016-4-07 !April 7, 2016	HTML	26	49	17	7	1
Insightrix Research	02016-4-07 !April 7, 2016	HTML	24	49	22	5
Mainstreet Research	02016-4-05 !April 5, 2016	HTML	24	50	17	9
Probe Research Inc	02016-4-04 !April 4, 2016	PDF	28	46	20	6
Mainstreet Research	02016-3-29 !March 29, 2016	HTML	23	45	24	7
Mainstreet Research	02016-3-19 !March 19, 2016	HTML	24	44	24	7
Forum Research	02016-3-13 !March 13, 2016	PDF	22	46	23	8	1
Mainstreet Research	02016-3-12 !March 12, 2016	HTML	27	43	24	7
Mainstreet Research	02016-2-20 !February 20, 2016	HTML	21	50	23	6
Mainstreet Research	02016-2-11 !February 11, 2016	HTML	21	51	20	7
Mainstreet Research	02016-1-25 !January 25, 2016	HTML	20	52	20	9
Mainstreet Research	02016-1-9 !January 9, 2016	HTML	23	44	27	6
Insightrix Research	02015-12-15 !December 22, 2015	HTML	19	39	36	5	1
Probe Research Inc	02015-12-15 !December 15, 2015	PDF	22	43	29		6
Probe Research Inc	02015-09-23 !September 23, 2015	PDF	25	45	24		5
Probe Research Inc	02015-06-27 !June 27, 2015	PDF	29	46	19		5
Probe Research Inc	02014-04-5 !April 5, 2015	PDF	29	44	20		7
Probe Research Inc	02014-12-12 !December 12, 2014	HTML	26	48	19		7
Mainstreet Research	02014-11-3 !November 3, 2014	HTML	27	53	20
Probe Research Inc	02014-10-1 !October 1, 2014	HTML	30	42	20		8
Probe Research Inc	02014-6-19 !June 19, 2014	HTML	32	45	16		7
Probe Research Inc	02014-3-28 !March 28, 2014	HTML	28	46	23		3
Insightrix Research	02014-02-07 !February 7, 2014	HTML	24	49	18	9
Probe Research Inc	02013-12-27 !December 27, 2013	PDF	26	48	20		6
Probe Research Inc	02013-09-28 !September 28, 2013	HTML	29	43	20		8
Probe Research Inc	02013-06-26 !June 26, 2013	PDF	28	46	17		10
Probe Research Inc	02013-04-14 !April 14, 2013	PDF	35	42	15		8
Probe Research Inc	02012-12-14 !December 14, 2012	PDF	39	43	11		7
Probe Research Inc	02012-10-14 !October 14, 2012	PDF	45	38	11		6
Probe Research Inc	02012-06-29 !June 29, 2012	PDF	44	40	13		3
Probe Research Inc	02012-04-04 !April 4, 2012	PDF	40	45	10		5
2011 election	02011-10-04 !October 4, 2011		46.2	43.7	7.5	2.5	0.1

Candidates by riding

Note that names in bold type represent Cabinet members, while italics represent party leaders.

Northern Manitoba

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	NDP	PC	Liberal	Green	Other	Incumbent
Flin Flon	Tom Lindsey 1,054	Angela Enright 942	Leslie Beck 894		Clarence Pettersen (Ind.) 354	Clarence Pettersen
Kewatinook	Eric Robinson 1,177	Edna Nabess 371	Judy Klassen 1,477			Eric Robinson
Swan River	Ron Kostyshyn 2,408	Rick Wowchuk 4,081	Shayne Lynxleg 483	Dan Soprovich 296		Ron Kostyshyn
The Pas	Amanda Lathlin 1,944	Doug Lauvstad 1,759	Tyler Duncan 555	Patrick Wood 216		Amanda Lathlin
Thompson	Steve Ashton 1,499	Kelly Bindle 1,709	Inez Vystrcil-Spence 616			Steve Ashton

Westman/Parkland

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	NDP	PC	Liberal	Green	Other	Incumbent
Agassiz	Courtney Lucas 445	Eileen Clarke 5,219		Robert Smith 406	Damian Dempsey (Ind.) 903	Stu Briese
Arthur-Virden	Lorne Topolniski 592	Doyle Piwniuk 6,001			Frank Godon (Manitoba) 828	Doyle Piwniuk
Brandon East	Drew Caldwell 2,513	Len Isleifson 3,651	Vanessa Hamilton 809			Drew Caldwell
Brandon West	Linda Ross 1,875	Reg Helwer 5,603	William Moore 618			Reg Helwer
Dauphin	Darcy Scheller 1,759	Brad Michaleski 4,438	Garry Gurke 468	Kate Storey 550	Darrell Inkster (Manitoba) 157	Stan Struthers
Riding Mountain	Béla Gyarmati 596	Greg Nesbitt 5,299	Jordan Fleury 1,013	Mark Olenick 776		Leanne Rowat
Spruce Woods	Amanda Chmelyk 670	Cliff Cullen 5,178	Jaron Hart 496		Malcolm McKellar (Manitoba) 733	Cliff Cullen

Central Manitoba

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	NDP	PC	Liberal	Green	Other	Incumbent
Emerson	Alanna Jones 431	Cliff Graydon 4,942	Loren Braul 1,419			Cliff Graydon
Gimli	Armand Bélanger	Jeff Wharton		Dwight Harfield	Ed Paquette (Manitoba)	vacant
Interlake	Tom Nevakshonoff	Derek Johnson	Jamal Abas			Tom Nevakshonoff
Lakeside	Matt Austman	Ralph Eichler				Ralph Eichler
Midland	Jacqueline Theroux	Blaine Pedersen	Julia Sisler	Stacey O’Neill		Blaine Pedersen
Morden-Winkler	Elizabeth Lynch	Cameron Friesen	Benjamin Bawdon	Mike Urichuk		Cameron Friesen
Morris	Mohamed Alli	Shannon Martin	John Falk			Shannon Martin
Portage la Prairie	Alex MacDonald	Ian Wishart	Stephen Prince			Ian Wishart

Eastman

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	NDP	PC	Liberal	Green	Other	Incumbent
Dawson Trail	Roxane Dupuis 1,674	Bob Lagassé 4,424	Terry Hayward 1,647		David Sutherland (Manitoba) 504	Ron Lemieux
Lac du Bonnet	Wendy Sol	Wayne Ewasko				Wayne Ewasko
La Verendrye	Echo Asher	Dennis Smook	Bill Paulishyn	Janine Gibson		Dennis Smook
Steinbach	Kathleen McCallum 387	Kelvin Goertzen 6,979	Dakota Young-Brown 458			Kelvin Goertzen
St. Paul	Andrew Podolecki	Ron Schuler	Pete Sanderson			Ron Schuler
Selkirk	Greg Dewar	Alan Lagimodiere	Stefan Jones			Greg Dewar

Northwest Winnipeg

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	NDP	PC	Liberal	Green	Other	Incumbent
Burrows	Melanie Wight 1,766	Rae Wagner 1,009	Cindy Lamoureux 2,612	Garrett Bodnaryk 210	Tony Petrowski (Communist) 27	Melanie Wight
Kildonan	Dave Chomiak 3,056	Nic Curry 3,688	Navdeep Khangura 965	Steven Stairs 452	Gary Marshall (Manitoba) 133	Dave Chomiak
Point Douglas	Kevin Chief 2,789 (58.9%)	Marsha Street 795 (16.8%)	Althea Guiboche 852 (18%)	Alberteen Spence 239 (5.0%)	Frank Komarniski (Communist) 60 (1.3%)	Kevin Chief
St. Johns	Nahanni Fontaine	Barbara Judt	Noel Bernier	Elizabeth Puchailo		Gord Mackintosh
The Maples	Mohinder Saran	Kaur Sidhu	Harbans Singh Brar	John Redekopp		Mohinder Saran
Tyndall Park	Ted Marcelino	Naseer Warraich	Aida Champagne	Shane Neustaeter		Ted Marcelino

Northeast Winnipeg

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	NDP	PC	Liberal	Green	Other	Incumbent
Concordia	Matt Wiebe	Andrew Frank	Donovan Martin		Terry Scott (Manitoba)	Matt Wiebe
Elmwood	Jim Maloway	Sarah Langevin			Albert Ratt (Manitoba)	Jim Maloway
Radisson	Preet Singh	James Teitsma	Scott Newman			Bidhu Jha
River East	Jody Gillis	Cathy Cox	Piero Scaramuzzi			Bonnie Mitchelson
Rossmere	Erna Braun	Andrew Micklefield	Malli Aulakh		William Sullivan (Manitoba)	Erna Braun
St. Boniface	Greg Selinger	Mamadou Ka	Alain Landry	Signe Knutson		Greg Selinger
Transcona	Barb Burkowski	Blair Yakimoski	Chad Panting		Darrell Rankin (Communist) Ajit Kumar (Manitoba)	Daryl Reid

West Winnipeg

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	NDP	PC	Liberal	Green	Other	Incumbent
Assiniboia	Joseph McKellep	Steven Fletcher	Ian McCausland	Ileana Ohlsson		Jim Rondeau
Charleswood	Janna Barkman	Myrna Driedger	Paul Brault	Kevin Nichols		Myrna Driedger
Kirkfield Park	Sharon Blady	Scott Fielding	Kelly Nord	Lisa Omand		Sharon Blady
St. James	Deanne Crothers	Scott Johnston	Michelle Finley	Jeff Buhse	Brad Gross (Manitoba)	Deanne Crothers
Tuxedo	Zach Fleisher	Heather Stefanson	Michael Lazar	Bob Krul		Heather Stefanson

Central Winnipeg

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	NDP	PC	Liberal	Green	Other	Incumbent
Fort Garry-Riverview	James Allum 3,442 (37.9%)	Jeannette Montufar 3,144 (34.6%)	Johanna Wood 793 (8.7%)	James Beddome 1,709 (18.8%)		James Allum
Fort Rouge	Wab Kinew 2,275 (36.8%)	Audrey Gordon 1,649 (26.7%)	Rana Bokhari 1,290 (20.9%)	Grant Sharp 790 (12.8%)	Matthew Ostrove (Manitoba) 136 (2.2%) Paula Ducharme (Communist) 37 (0.6%)	Jennifer Howard
Logan	Flor Marcelino 1,505 (40.4%)	Allie Szarkiewicz 720 (19.3%)	Peter Koroma 1,029 (27.6%)	Jitendradas Loves-Life 297 (8%)	Joe Chan (Manitoba) 135 (3.6%) Cheryl-Anne Carr (Communist) 40 (1.1%)	Flor Marcelino
Minto	Andrew Swan 2,925 (51.2%)	Belinda Squance 1,012 (17.7%)	Demetre Balaktsis 693 (12.1%)	Martha Jo Willard 407 (7.1%)	Andrew Taylor (Communist) 41 (0.7%) Virgil Gil (Manitoba) 49 (0.9%) Don Woodstock (Ind) 587 (10.3%)	Andrew Swan
River Heights	Shafagh Daneshfar 591 (5.9%)	Tracey Maconachie 3,471 (34.5%)	Jon Gerrard 5,224 (51.9%)	Michael Cardillo 778 (7.7%)		Jon Gerrard
Wolseley	Rob Altemeyer 3,022 (41.4%)	Raquel Dancho 939 (12.9%)	Shandi Strong 618 (8.8%)	David Nickarz 2,638 (36.2%)	Wayne Sturby (Manitoba) 77 (1.1%)	Rob Altemeyer

South Winnipeg

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	NDP	PC	Liberal	Green	Other	Incumbent
Fort Richmond	Kerri Irvin-Ross	Sarah Guillemard	Kyra Wilson	Cameron Proulx		Kerri Irvin-Ross
Fort Whyte	George Wong	Brian Pallister	Peter Bastians	Carli Runions	Daryl Newis (Manitoba)	Brian Pallister
Riel	Christine Melnick	Rochelle Squires	Neil Johnston			Christine Melnick
Seine River	Lise Pinkos	Janice Morley-Lecomte	Peter Chura			Theresa Oswald
Southdale	Dashi Zargani	Andrew Smith	Ryan Colyer			vacant
St. Norbert	Dave Gaudreau	Jon Reyes	James Bloomfield		Narinder Kaur Johar	Dave Gaudreau
St. Vital	Jamie Moses	Colleen Mayer	Bryan Van Wilgenburg	Kelly Whelan-Enns		Nancy Allan

Notes

↑ Erin Selby (Southdale) and Peter Bjornson (Gimli) resigned their seats in 2015.^[9] No by-elections were called and their seats remained vacant.

References

↑ Voting in a Manitoba Provincial Election. Retrieved June 24, 2012.
↑ Elections Act, sec. 49.1(2).
↑ Elections Act, sec. 49.1(3).
↑ Elections Act, sec. 49.1(1).
↑ http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/choices-are-clear-selinger-makes-april-19-manitoba-election-official-1.2819225
1 2 "Manitoba election results 2016". Global News. 19 April 2016. Retrieved 19 April 2016.
↑ "Voters don't trust leaders, but Pallister fares better than rivals: poll". Winnipeg Free Press, April 9, 2016.
↑ "Manitobans go to the polls in provincial election". CBC News. 19 April 2016. Retrieved 19 April 2016.
↑ http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/columnists/Selingers-shuffle-making-the-best-of-a-bad-situation--301769811.html
↑ "Demoted Manitoba politician, Jim Rondeau, to leave politics". Global News. April 13, 2015.
↑ "Former Manitoba cabinet minister not running". Global News. May 13, 2015.
↑ CBC News Manitoba, 24-11-2015
↑ http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Longtime-NDP-MLA-Nancy-Allan-announces-retirement-305366321.html
1 2 "MLA Leanne Rowat will not seek reelection". Winnipeg Free Press. September 11, 2014.
↑ "River East MLA Bonnie Mitchelson Announces Retirement". CJOB. October 17, 2014.

External links

Elections Manitoba

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See also: List of Manitoba by-elections

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