Post-election pendulum for the Victorian state election, 2002

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the Victorian state election, 2002.

"Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

Seats which changed hands are shown in bold.

LABOR SEATS
Seat Party Margin Swing to ALP
Marginal
Evelyn ALP 0.3% +12.7%
Hastings ALP 0.8% +8.1%
Gembrook ALP 1.6% +8.6%
Melbourne ALP 1.9% v GRN *
Kilsyth ALP 2.1% +10.1%
Ferntree Gully ALP 2.3% +9.9%
Mount Waverley ALP 2.3% +11.4%
Bayswater ALP 2.8% +9.2%
Richmond ALP 3.1% v GRN *
Fairly safe
Prahran ALP 4.4% +9.2%
Mordialloc ALP 4.5% +7.1%
Bentleigh ALP 4.8% +6.8%
Eltham ALP 4.8% +8.6%
Morwell ALP 4.9% -4.2%
South Barwon ALP 5.0% +9.8%
Burwood ALP 5.1% +11.9%
Frankston ALP 5.8% +9.1%
Forest Hill ALP 5.8% +12.2%
Narracan ALP 6.8% +7.3%
Safe
Ripon ALP 7.4% +5.5%
Ballarat East ALP 7.6% +4.2%
Mitcham ALP 7.7% +7.7%
Northcote ALP 7.9% v GRN *
Geelong ALP 8.1% +8.6%
Bellarine ALP 8.3% +9.8%
Monbulk ALP 8.3% +10.8%
Ballarat West ALP 9.0% +7.4%
Macedon ALP 9.3% +9.7%
Brunswick ALP 9.3% *
Seymour ALP 9.5% +9.5%
Yan Yean ALP 9.5% +10.2%
Narre Warren North ALP 9.7% +14.9%
Cranbourne ALP 10.8% +9.2%
Carrum ALP 12.2% +10.8%
Ivanhoe ALP 12.5% +7.6%
Albert Park ALP 12.5% +5.8%
Narre Warren South ALP 12.6% +14.1%
Bendigo East ALP 13.0% +10.0%
Oakleigh ALP 15.2% +12.2%
Melton ALP 15.3% +8.6%
Yuroke ALP 15.9% +7.6%
Bendigo West ALP 16.0% +4.9%
Mulgrave ALP 16.2% +11.8%
Niddrie ALP 16.6% +10.1%
Tarneit ALP 17.4% +6.6%
Bundoora ALP 17.6% +10.3%
Keilor ALP 18.1% +11.4%
Very safe
Dandenong ALP 20.3% +8.7%
Lara ALP 22.4% +9.7%
Yuroke ALP 22.9% +13.8%
Clayton ALP 23.9% +11.8%
Pascoe Vale ALP 24.2% +7.3%
Altona ALP 24.7% +9.1%
Footscray ALP 24.9% +7.0%
Lyndhurst ALP 25.1% +14.2%
Williamstown ALP 25.7% +7.5%
Preston ALP 25.8% +6.9%
Mill Park ALP 26.8% +12.9%
Kororoit ALP 27.1% +6.2%
Derrimut ALP 27.3% +7.0%
Broadmeadows ALP 30.8% +5.8%
Thomastown ALP 31.8% +7.6%
LIBERAL/ NATIONAL SEATS
Seat Party Margin Swing to ALP
Marginal
Nepean LIB 0.2% +6.1%
Bass LIB 0.6% *
South-West Coast LIB 0.7% +3.9%
Doncaster LIB 0.8% +11.7%
Box Hill LIB 1.1% +6.9%
Mornington LIB 1.8% +10.1%
Benalla NAT 2.0% +5.4%
Caulfield LIB 2.3% +6.0%
Bulleen LIB 2.6% +10.1%
Sandringham LIB 3.0% +9.2%
Scoresby LIB 3.3% +11.5%
Fairly safe
Benambra LIB 4.0% +3.6%
Shepparton NAT 4.3% *
Hawthorn LIB 5.9% +8.3%
Kew LIB 6.0% +7.9%
Warrandyte LIB 6.4% +7.5%
Safe
Brighton LIB 7.4% +7.4%
Polwarth LIB 9.5% +3.7%
Rodney NAT 10.0% v LIB *
Malvern LIB 10.2% +6.0%
Gippsland South NAT 10.9% -2.8%
Gippsland East IND 11.8% v NAT *
Murray Valley NAT 13.9% +1.9%
Swan Hill NAT 14.2% *
Lowan NAT 17.1% *
Mildura IND 18.5% v NAT *

References

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