Igor Panarin

Igor Panarin
Born Russian: Игорь Николаевич Панарин
(1958-10-30) 30 October 1958[1]
Residence Moscow
Nationality Russian
Occupation Professor and political scientist
Known for Predicting in 1998 that the US will possibly disintegrate into six parts in 2010

Igor Nikolaevich Panarin (Russian: И́горь Никола́евич Пана́рин, Russian pronunciation: [ˈiɡərʲ nʲɪkɐˈlaɪvʲɪtɕ pɐˈnarʲɪn]; born 30 October 1958)[1] is a Russian professor and political scientist.[2] He is best known for his hypothesis of possible disintegration of the USA into six parts in 2010, conceived by him as early as 1998 but only gaining world attention ten years later.

Igor Panarin has written 15 books[3] and a number of articles on information warfare, psychology, and geopolitics. He is often interviewed by Russian and foreign (Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, CNN, BBC, Sky News) media on issues of Russian policy, development of relationships with the USA, etc.[4] Panarin also has his own weekly radio programme.

He has led electoral campaigns in Russia and abroad, and his students have included parliamentary deputies, regional leaders, Kremlin officials, and Foreign Ministry spokespeople.[5] His interests include history, philosophy, psychology, computer science, communication, election technology, conceptual problems of globalisation, and the theory and practice of information warfare.

Biography

Panarin graduated from the Higher Military Command School of Telecommunications of the KGB (now the Academy of Federal Security Guard Service of the Russian Federation) in Oryol and the Division of Psychology of the Military-Political Academy (with a gold medal). In 1993 he defended his thesis for Candidate of Psychological Sciences, titled "Psychological Factors of the Officer's Activity in Conditions of Innovations". His Doctorate in Political Sciences was awarded by the Russian Academy of Public Administration in 1997 for a thesis titled "Informational-Psychological Support of the National Security of Russia".[1]

Panarin began his career in the KGB of the USSR in 1976. After 1991, he worked in the FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency,[2][6] reaching the Colonel rank.[7] His field of activity was strategic analysis and integration of closed and open information streams, information stream management in crisis situations, and situation modelling of global processes. He did strategic forecasts for the then President Boris Yeltsin.[2] From 1999 to 2003, he worked as the Head of the Analytical Division of the Central Election Commission of Russia.[6] From 2006[8] to 2007,[9] Panarin was the Press Secretary of the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roskosmos), the Russian analogue of the U.S. NASA.

Prof. Panarin started his teaching career in 1989 and has taught in the Moscow State University (MGU), the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO-University), the Russian Academy of Public Administration, and the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, where he has worked since 1999.[10] He also carries out activities on his own. In 2004, he launched his official website. In April 2008, his first training seminar called "Information warfare – technologies for success" was held. It was targeted at top managers of state and business structures, press service managers of authorities and large corporations, anti-crisis management experts, and decision makers in time-deficit situations.[4] On 20 May 2009, Panarin started World politics – his own weekly radio programme on the Voice of Russia radio.

Panarin is currently the dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's school for future diplomats and appears regularly on Russian television channels.[11]

Views and ideas

Panarin says he is a supporter of Russia as a superstate but claims that Russia presently has no imperial ambitions. He also supports Pan-Eurasian nationalism of Nikolai Trubetzkoy. Panarin criticises Vladimir Lenin and Leon Trotsky but recognizes Joseph Stalin for realizing a geopolitical project of his own – a synthesised historical Russian geopolitical idea of Joseph Volotsky, Philotheus, Nikolay Danilevsky and Konstantin Leontiev. In his view, after 1934 Stalin started a process of recreation of the Rus doctrine "Moscow – a Third Rome" in new historical conditions.[12]

On 3 July 1941 when Stalin addressed the Soviet people as "Brothers and sisters",[13] this doctrine became the dominating geopolitical idea of the USSR-Rus and replaced the Lenin-Trotsky's idea of world revolution that was an external (imported) geopolitical project. The Pan-Eurasian nationalism of Trubetzkoy, joint with the "Moscow – a Third Rome" idea realised in the conditions of the Soviet order yielded a result – the USSR won a victory in the global skirmish with Fascism. And the Trotskyist ideas won at the end of the 20th century in the USA and brightly manifested themselves in the ideology of the liberal globalism of a part of the contemporary American political elite (globalists).
Igor Panarin

Panarin condemns the activity of the last General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet UnionMikhail Gorbachev. On the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the latter's rise to power (on 11 March 1985), Panarin called him "the Antihero of Russia". On Panarin's initiative, an action called a Public Tribunal against Gorbachev for the downfall of the USSR and crimes against its peoples was carried out at the web portal KM.ru from 2 to 22 December 2005, resulting in 56,298 people condemning Gorbachev.[12]

Panarin opposes the Houston programme of 1990[14] and criticises the Russian finance minister Alexey Kudrin for following it, saying the 2008 financial crisis in Russia is a part of it. He recommends selling oil and gas to Ukraine only for roubles (which in his view would automatically block its process of integration in NATO) and withdrawal of all Russian funds from the American "financial Titanic", buying gold and creating powerful Russian banks.[15] He also recommends granting credits only in roubles.[16]

New British Empire

In 2005, Panarin coined the term "New British Empire", which in his view started forming in 1945 (later he said that the Dulles brothers created it) and consists of 7 levels, with the following structure (subordinate from top to bottom):

  1. American-British transnational capital: Control centres – London and New York, analytical centre – RAND Corporation (USA, California).
  2. USA: Control centre – Washington DC, analytical centre – the State Department of the USA.
  3. British Commonwealth: Control centre – London, analytical centre – the BBC.
  4. Trojan horse states: Poland, Saudi Arabia
  5. Economically controlled states
  6. Politically controlled states
  7. Destabilisation states: Central Asian states, Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, Yugoslavia

Panarin has written that the September 11 attacks in 2001 may have been aimed at replacing levels 2 and 3 of the New British Empire with China and the Chinese Commonwealth, respectively (see also his book "Information warfare and geopolitics"), accelerating the U.S. collapse, or preventing it.

Prediction of the United States collapse in 2010

Panarin's U.S. breakup map
Panarin's prediction of the USA's disintegration (original map).

In the summer of 1998, based on classified data about the state of the U.S. economy and society[17] supplied to him by fellow analysts at FAPSI,[2] Panarin forecast the probable disintegration of the US into six parts in 2010 (at the end of June – start of July 2010, as he specified on 10 December 2008), following a civil war triggered by mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation. He forecast financial and demographic changes provoking a political crisis in which wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government, effectively seceding from the Union, leading to social unrest, civil war, national division, and intervention of foreign powers.[2] Panarin sees the task of the world elite as not letting the USA follow the Yugoslavian model of disintegration; it is desirable that it follows the Czechoslovakian model of disintegration so that everything goes calmly and peacefully.

Explaining his theory in an interview with Izvestia, Panarin stated that "The [US] dollar isn't secured by anything. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche; this is a pyramid, which has to collapse. ... Dissatisfaction is growing, and it is only being held back at the moment by the elections, and the hope [that President-elect Barack Obama] "can work miracles. But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."[18]

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal in 2008, Panarin said:

"There's a 55–45% chance right now that disintegration will occur. ... One could rejoice in that process ... But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario – for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S."[2]

In March 2009, Panarin gave a speech at the Diplomatic Academy in which he stated that "There is a high probability that the collapse of the United States will occur by 2010" and predicted that Russia and China, which will soon become economic superpowers, will need to collaborate to rebuild the world economy with a new currency once the United States (and the US Dollar) cease to exist.[19]

This hypothesis gained world attention a decade after its initial announcement due to the 2008 financial crisis and has been widely criticised since.[20]

In October 2011, Panarin stated that Occupy Wall Street protests have "highlighted the ever-deepening split with America's ruling elite." He also cited several American professors and analysts who he claims support his view that the United States will soon collapse, including Gerald Celente, Stephen F. Cohen, and Thomas W. Chittum.[21][22]

Other ideas

Panarin conceived a number of other ideas, given below in chronological order, which also reflect his views on the respective subjects. One of them (the rouble-denominated oil-trading exchange) has already been implemented.

Bibliography

Books

Articles

See also

References

  1. 1 2 3 Who is Igor Panarin?, Kommersant, 25 April 2006. (Russian)
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 As if things were not bad enough, Russian professor predicts end of U.S., an interview for The Wall Street Journal, 29 December 2008
  3. 1 2 Books by Igor Panarin at Ozon.ru (Russian)
  4. 1 2 Igor Paranin's seminars on information warfare (Russian)
  5. 1 2 Professor's apocalyptic vision of America, an interview for Sky News, 31 March 2009
  6. 1 2 Russia – USA: for the principles of fair play, an interview for Krasnaya Zvezda, 15 April 2009 (Russian)
  7. 1 2 Russian view of information war, "Russian Armed Forces at the dawn of the Millenium", 7–9 February 2000
  8. 1 2 Space agency declares informational war, Kommersant, 25 April 2006
  9. Roskosmos press-secretary resigned, RIA Novosti, 30 July 2007 (Russian)
  10. Department of Mass Communications and Public Relations in the Diplomatic Academy (Russian)
  11. Russian Scholar Says U.S. Will Collapse Next Year, Associated Press (reprinted by Fox News), 4 March 2009.
  12. 1 2 3 Igor Panarin, "From United Russia to Eurasian Rus", Cyril and Methodius, 12 January 2006 (Russian)
  13. Joseph Stalin, Radio address, an English translation of the transcript, 3 July 1941
  14. A Study of the Soviet economy, International Monetary Fund, February 1991, ISBN 92-64-13468-9
  15. The crisis in Russia – a part of the Houston plan, an interview with KM.ru, 9 October 2008 (Russian)
  16. Turn the post-Soviet space into a rouble space, an interview with KM.ru, 3 June 2009 (Russian)
  17. Panarin and the disintegration of the USA, Eurasia, 3 April 2009 (Italian)
  18. Russian Professor Says U.S. Will Break Up After Economic Crisis Archived 18 September 2013 at the Wayback Machine. by Robin Stringer, Bloomberg.com, 24 November 2008.
  19. Russian Scholar Says U.S. Will Collapse Next Year, Associated Press (reprinted by Fox News), 4 March 2009.
  20. Russian sees end of American Dream Archived 14 March 2009 at the Wayback Machine., Inquirer.net, 11 March 2009
  21. US breakup: Myth or reality?, Russia Today, 27 October 2011.
  22. What Igor Panarin Says About Occupy Wall Street by Carol Bengle Gilbert, Yahoo News, 16 December 2011.
  23. 1 2 The USA will disintegrate next year, an interview with Pro Polonia, 31 March 2009 (Polish)
  24. 1 2 The Prince of the post-Soviet space will be Vladimir Putin Archived 4 April 2009 at the Wayback Machine., an interview with Izvestia, 1 April 2009 (Russian)
  25. Saint Petersburg and Almaty: North and South of the Eurasian Union, an interview with New Generation, 6 May 2009 (Russian)
  26. St. Petersburg's exchange filled up, Kommersant, 27 March 2009 (Russian)
  27. Information warfare for the future of Russia Archived 12 March 2009 at the Wayback Machine. by Igor Panarin, Hotline – Telecom, 2008 (Russian)
  28. Is there anything Obama can do about the US collapse?, an interview with Russia Today, 25 March 2009
Wikimedia Commons has media related to Igor Panarin.
This article is issued from Wikipedia - version of the Monday, April 18, 2016. The text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution/Share Alike but additional terms may apply for the media files.