Madrilenian parliamentary election, 2015

Madrilenian parliamentary election, 2015

24 May 2015

All 129 seats in the Assembly of Madrid 65 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls Registered 4,880,495 5.6% Turnout 3,205,931 (65.7%) 0.2 pp   First party Second party Third party   Leader Cristina Cifuentes Ángel Gabilondo José Manuel López Party PPM PSM-PSOE Podemos Leader since 6 March 2015 21 February 2015 1 April 2015 Last election 72 seats, 51.7% 36 seats, 26.3% Did not contest Seats won 48 37 27 Seat change 24 1 27 Popular vote 1,050,256 807,385 591,697 Percentage 33.1% 25.4% 18.6% Swing 18.6 pp 0.9 pp New party   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Ignacio Aguado Luis García Montero Ramón Marcos Party C's IU UPyD Leader since 2 March 2015 27 February 2015 18 October 2014 Last election 0 seats, 0.2% 13 seats, 9.6% 8 seats, 6.3% Seats won 17 0 0 Seat change 17 13 8 Popular vote 385,836 132,207 64,643 Percentage 12.2% 4.2% 2.0% Swing 12.0 pp 5.4 pp 4.3 pp

President before election Ignacio González PP Elected President Cristina Cifuentes PP

The 2015 Madrilenian parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 10th Assembly of Madrid, the unicameral regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Madrid. At stake were all 129 seats in the Assembly. The election was held concurrently with the regional elections for 12 other autonomous communities, as well as the 2015 municipal elections.

The ruling People's Party (PPM) emerged once again as the largest political force in the region, but it saw a substantial drop in its vote support and the loss of the absolute majority it had held almost uninterruptedly since 1995 (with a brief interlude in 2003). However, as both the Socialist Party of Madrid (PSM-PSOE) and newcomer Podemos fell one seat short of an absolute majority, it meant that the PPM could command an absolute majority together with Citizens (C's). As a result, a confidence and supply agreement between the PPM and C's elected Cristina Cifuentes as new President of the Community of Madrid. Cifuentes would be the third regional President in three years, after Esperanza Aguirre's resignation in 2012 and incumbent President Ignacio González not running for the office as a result of several scandals.

The left-wing United Left (IU) coalition lost its parliamentary representation for the first time in history as a result of not reaching the required 5% threshold, while Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD), which had entered the regional parliament in 2011 for the first time, was nearly obliberated at the polls. Both parties' decline came as a result of losing much of their support to both Podemos and C's.

Electoral system

The number of seats in the regional Assembly was determined by the population count, with 1 seat per each 50,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 25,000, according to the most updated census data.^[1] As the updated population census for the 2015 election is the corresponding to year 2014 (6,454,440), the Assembly size is set to 129 seats

All Assembly members were elected in a single multi-member district, consisting of the Community's territory (the province of Madrid), using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 5% of valid votes in all of the community (which include blank ballots—for none of the above) were entitled to enter the seat distribution.^[2]

Background

After the 2011 regional election, the People's Party was re-elected for a fourth consecutive term in office with an absolute majority of seats, with the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party under Tomás Gómez obtaining the worst result of its history in the region. President Esperanza Aguirre, which had renewed the office for a third term (Aguirre had succeeded Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón as regional premier in 2003), resigned on 17 September 2012, allegedly a result of health issues, but also for "personal reasons". She was succeeded in the Presidency by her Deputy, Ignacio González.^[3]

Opinion polls from 2012 predicted a drop in vote support for the People's Party, to the point that it could lose the absolute majority it had enjoyed from 2003. The same polls had shown that the PSOE remained unable to capitalize on the PP government electoral wear. On the 2014 European Parliament election, both parties obtained historic lows: with 29.9%, the People's Party result in the region was the lowest since the 1989 election, while PSOE's result at 18.9% was the party's lowest score ever. Newly-created party Podemos was able to poll at 11.3%, placing itself as the third political force of the community and within striking distance of the PSOE.^[4] Podemos' growth in opinion polls since mid-to-late 2014 at the expense of PSOE's vote spectrum inspired fears within the party that it could be displaced to third place both regionally and nationally, thus ceasing to be the main reference party of the left ideology in both Spain and Madrid.^[5]

On 11 February 2015, PSOE Secretary-General Pedro Sánchez removed Tomás Gómez, PSM candidate for the 2015 election,^[6] from the party's regional leadership.^[7][8] The decision came, allegedly, after suspicions of Gómez being involved in a tram project corruption scandal during his time as Mayor of Parla,^[9][10] though electoral motives may have helped hasten the move, as Gómez was deemed a bad candidate as Rafael Simancas later recognized.^[11] Ángel Gabilondo, former Education Minister in José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero's Cabinet from 2009 to 2011, was selected as PSM-PSOE candidate replacing Gómez on 21 February 2015.^[12]

In United Left, Tania Sánchez, elected as party's presidential candidate in a primary election held on 1 December 2014,^[13] had left the party on 4 February 2015 alongside a number of supporters, over an internal conflict with the party's regional leadership, involved in the Caja Madrid "black" credit cards scandal.^[14] Luis García Montero, a Spanish poet and literary critic, was selected to replace Sánchez' as IU candidate to the Madrid Community.^[15]

The People's Party had not yet proclaimed a candidate as of February 2015, despite incumbent President Ignacio González being widely presumed to stand for a second term in office.^[16] On 2 March 2015, Spanish newspaper El Mundo's headlines pointed out that González' had asked National Police officers to withhold information over an ongoing investigation on him about a possible tax fraud in the purchase of a luxury penthouse.^[17] González announced that he was the victim of policial 'blackmail' and reiterated his wish to be his party's candidate for the 2015 election.^[18] However, rumours arose in the media that the party's leadership had withdrawn their support from González and expected him to eventually give up on his intention to run.^[19] Finally, on 6 March 2015, incumbent Government Delegate in Madrid Cristina Cifuentes was chosen as PP candidate for the autonomous community, while former regional President Esperanza Aguirre was named as candidate to the Madrid City Council.^[20]

Opinion polls

Vote estimations

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Color key:

      Exit poll

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling							Margin of Error	Sample Size	Lead
Regional Election	May 24, 2015	33.1	25.4	4.2	2.0	12.2	18.6			7.7
TNS Demoscopia	May 24, 2015	30.8	24.4	4.7	0.9	12.0	22.3			6.4
NC Report	May 17, 2015	35.4	20.7	5.9	1.4	18.9	15.7	±5.0 pp	400	14.7
Sigma Dos	May 14, 2015	34.3	20.4	5.2		17.6	19.2	±3.5 pp	1,200	13.9
Encuestamos	May 12, 2015	29.1	27.0	5.4	1.1	15.2	17.9			2.1
Sigma Dos	May 7, 2015	35.1	19.7	5.1		17.5	17.9	±2.3 pp	1,800	15.4
My Word	May 6, 2015	31.8	19.9	4.8	2.1	17.5	19.4	±3.5 pp	801	11.9
Metroscopia	April 28, 2015	27.2	21.6	5.5		21.4	20.7	±2.9 pp	1,200	5.6
Invymark	April 27, 2015	33.7	22.6	4.1	1.4	16.1	18.6			11.1
Idea Nomina Data	April 25, 2015	30.0	18.5	4.0	1.5	21.5	21.5	±2.2 pp	2,065	8.5
Deimos Statistics	April 23, 2015	36.6	21.2	4.3	2.0	17.2	15.6	±2.8 pp	1,210	15.4
GAD3	April 20, 2015	32.1	23.3	4.7	0.9	17.9	16.9	±3.1 pp	1,008	8.8
CIS	April 19, 2015	34.7	20.0	5.4	2.5	16.3	17.3	±2.6 pp	1,512	14.7
Sigma Dos	April 16, 2015	34.6	19.4	5.9	1.0	17.2	19.1	±2.3 pp	1,800	15.2
Sigma Dos	March 26, 2015	32.8	20.7	6.5	1.8	16.6	19.2	±2.9 pp	1,200	12.1
NC Report	March 12, 2015	36.1	21.4	5.8	1.8	17.7	15.4	±5.0 pp	400	14.7
Metroscopia	February 20, 2015	28.0	17.0	5.5	5.0	15.8	24.6	±2.9 pp	1,200	3.4
Invymark	February 13, 2015	38.8	17.3	4.5	4.6	6.0	23.6		1,600	15.2
Metroscopia	February 11, 2015	27.5	23.7	6.0	5.4	15.4	18.5	±3.5 pp	800	3.8
Metroscopia	January 26, 2015	23.8	19.4	7.9	6.9	10.5	25.2			1.4
Metroscopia	November 24, 2014	28.0	19.7	8.3	9.4		28.6			0.6
GAD3	September 11, 2014	41.8	16.4	5.4	7.7	4.4	17.5	±3.2 pp	1,000	24.3
Metroscopia	September 8, 2014	35.7	20.6	8.7	8.7		19.9			15.1
EP Election	May 25, 2014	30.0	19.0	10.6	10.6	4.8	11.4			11.0
Metroscopia	April 28, 2014	36.7	21.3	18.8	12.7			±2.9 pp	1,200	15.4
Invymark	April 21, 2014	42.3	23.9	14.4	10.5					18.4
La Vanguardia	March 30, 2014	37.2	24.3	15.8	12.4					12.9
NC Report	November 12, 2013	37.9	23.4	17.7	13.4					14.5
NC Report^[CV]	May 10, 2013	38.5	21.8					±5.4 pp	350	16.7
Metroscopia	April 29, 2013	35.2	20.1	18.9	10.4			±4.2 pp	600	15.1
General Election	November 20, 2011	51.0	26.0	8.0	10.3					25.0
Regional Election	May 22, 2011	51.7	26.3	9.6	6.3	0.2				25.4

Notes

^CV Identifies polling firms that explicitly show their top-line results projected over "candidacy votes", that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots. This is in contrast to "valid votes", which is the most frequent method of vote projection by opinion pollsters and which do account for blank ballots. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results projected over "valid votes" as well as projections from other pollsters, a rule of three is applied, considering a comparison between 2011 election results calculated both over "candidacy" and "valid votes". The results of such calculation are shown instead.

Parliamentary seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 65 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Madrid.

Color key:

      Exit poll

65 seats needed for majority

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling
Regional Election	May 24, 2015	48	37	0	0	17	27
TNS Demoscopia	May 24, 2015	43/46	33/36	0	0	16/18	30/33
GAD3	May 24, 2015	45/47	29/32	7/8	0	19/20	25/26
GAD3	May 17, 2015	45/47	31/33	0/6	0	24/25	23/24
NC Report	May 17, 2015	47/48	27/28	7/8	0	25/26	21/22
Sigma Dos	May 14, 2015	46/47	27	6/7	0	23/24	25/26
Encuestamos	May 12, 2015	39/42	35/38	0/6	0	20/23	24/26
Sigma Dos	May 7, 2015	48/49	26/27	6/7	0	23/24	24
My Word	May 6, 2015	44/48	27/30	0/6	0	24/26	27/29
Metroscopia	April 28, 2015	36	29	7	0	29	28
Invymark	April 27, 2015	48	32	0	0	23	26
Idea Nomina Data	April 25, 2015	39/43	25/28	0	0	29/31	29/31
Cámara de Comercio	April 23, 2015	39	30	8	0	24	28
Deimos Statistics	April 23, 2015	53/54	29/30	8	0	23/24	22/23
GAD3	April 20, 2015	44/46	32/33	0/6	0	24/26	23/24
CIS	April 19, 2015	48/49	27/28	7	0	22/23	24
Sigma Dos	April 16, 2015	46/48	26	7/8	0	23	25/26
Sigma Dos	March 26, 2015	44/45	28	8/9	0	22/23	25/26
NC Report	March 12, 2015	48/49	28/29	9/10	0	23/24	20/21
PSOE	March 7, 2015	40/44	20/23	7	6/7	18/22	30
Metroscopia	February 20, 2015	38	23	7	6	21	34
PP	February 18, 2015	59/63	24/26	0	0	8/9	34/35
Invymark	February 13, 2015	59	26	0	0	9	35
Metroscopia	February 11, 2015	37	32	8	7	20	25
PP	February 5, 2015	51/53	23/25	7	7	7	30/32
Metroscopia	January 26, 2015	33	27	11	9	14	35
Metroscopia	November 24, 2014	39	27	11	13	0	39
Llorente & Cuenca	October 31, 2014	51/55	24/27	10/14	11/14	0	25/30
GAD3	September 11, 2014	61	24	8	11	0	25
Metroscopia	September 8, 2014	50	28	12	12	0	27
EP Election	May 25, 2014	(48)	(30)	(16)	(17)	(0)	(18)
Metroscopia	April 28, 2014	53	31	27	18	0
Invymark	April 21, 2014	60	34	20	15	0
La Vanguardia	March 30, 2014	54	35	22	18	0
NC Report	November 12, 2013	52/53	33/34	24/25	18/19	0
PSOE	June 6, 2013	63	31	18	17	0
NC Report	May 10, 2013	56/57	31/32	24/25	16/17	0
Metroscopia	April 29, 2013	54	30	29	16	0
General Election	November 20, 2011	(70)	(30)	(10)	(14)
Regional Election	May 22, 2011	72	36	13	8	0

Results

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Madrid Assembly election results

Party		Vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Won	+/−
	People's Party of the Madrid Community (PPM)	1,050,256	33.08	18.65	48	24
	Socialist Party of Madrid (PSM-PSOE)	807,385	25.43	0.84	37	1
	We Can (Podemos)	591,697	18.64	New	27	27
	Citizens-Party of the Citizenry (C's)	385,836	12.15	11.99	17	17
	United Left of the Madrid Community-The Greens (IUCM-LV)	132,207	4.16	5.47	0	13
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	64,643	2.04	4.28	0	8
	Vox (VOX)	37,491	1.18	New	0	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	32,228	1.02	0.49	0	±0
	Spain 2000 (E-2000)	6,037	0.19	New	0	±0
	Spanish Falange of the JONS (FE-JONS)	5,550	0.17	New	0	±0
	Union for Leganés (ULEG)	5,442	0.17	0.08	0	±0
	Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero)	4,138	0.13	New	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	3,460	0.11	0.02	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	3,196	0.10	0.09	0	±0

Parties with less than 0.1% of the vote		10,292	0.32	–	0	±0
	The National Coalition (LCN)	2,747	0.09	New	0	±0
	Spanish Alternative (AES)	2,552	0.08	0.04	0	±0
	Individual Freedom Party (P-LIB)	1,860	0.06	New	0	±0
	Castilian Party (PCAS)	1,755	0.06	±0.00	0	±0
	Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn)	1,378	0.04	±0.00	0	±0

	Blank ballots	34,856	1.10	1.29
Total		3,174,714	100.00		129	±0
Valid votes		3,174,714	99.03	0.71
Invalid votes		31,217	0.97	0.71
Votes cast / turnout		3,205,931	65.69	0.17
Abstentions		1,674,564	34.31	0.17
Registered voters		4,880,495
Source(s): Assembly of Madrid Argos Information Portal

Vote share
PPM			33.08%
PSM-PSOE			25.43%
Podemos			18.64%
C's			12.15%
IUCM-LV			4.16%
UPyD			2.04%
Vox			1.18%
PACMA			1.02%
Others			1.20%
Blank ballots			1.10%

Parliamentary seats
PPM			37.21%
PSM-PSOE			28.68%
Podemos			20.93%
C's			13.18%

Aftermath

Investiture vote

First round: 24 June 2015
Absolute majority (65/129) required

Candidate: Cristina Cifuentes
Choice		Vote
		Parties	Votes
	Yes	PPM (48), C's (17)	65 / 129
	No	PSM (37), Podemos (27)	64 / 129
	Abstentions		0 / 129
Source: Historia Electoral

References

1. "Statute of Autonomy of Madrid; Title I. Chapter I. Of the Assembly of Madrid.)".
2. "Law 11/1986, of 16 December, electoral of the Community of Madrid; Chapter VII. The electoral system.".
3. "Esperanza Aguirre resigns" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-09-17.
4. "PP wins in Madrid but loses 19 points, while the PSOE collapses" (in Spanish). Madrid Press. 2014-05-26.
5. "PSOE fears that the CIS places it in 3rd place in vote estimation" (in Spanish). ABC. 2015-02-04.
6. "PSM proclaims Tomás Gómez as candidate to the Presidency of the Community of Madrid" (in Spanish). RTVE. 2014-10-03.
7. "Pedro Sánchez dismisses Tomás Gómez and creates a interim committee in the PSM" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-02-11.
8. "Gabilondo and Simancas, among the possible successors of Tomás Gómez" (in Spanish). Antena 3. 2015-02-11.
9. "Sánchez gives a blow of authority and expels Tomás Gómez as leader in Madrid" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-02-11.
10. "Gómez clings on to his office and threatens to go to court" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-02-11.
11. "Simancas tell Varcarce that the election will be democratic "but faster" because of the "exceptional" moment" (in Spanish). Europa Press. 2015-02-16.
12. "PSOE names Ángel Gabilondo candidate to the Community of Madrid" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-02-21.
13. "Tania Sánchez, elected as candidate to the Presidency of the Community of Madrid" (in Spanish). Antena 3. 2014-12-01.
14. "Tania Sanchez leaves IU to promote a party of "popular unity"" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-02-05.
15. "Conditioned 'yes' from Luis García Montero" (in Spanish). Cadena SER. 2015-02-27.
16. "PP, PSOE and IU, without candidates in the Community of Madrid" (in Spanish). El Correo. 2015-02-11.
17. "Ignacio González sought help from police to hide the penthouse's case" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-03-02.
18. "Ignacio González denounces policial blackmail and says he doesn't renounce to be candidate" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2015-03-02.
19. "PP expects Ignacio González expected to step back in his candidacy" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-03-03.
20. "Rajoy ignores González and chooses Cifuentes as candidate for Madrid" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-03-06.

External links

• NC Report/La Razón survey (13/05/2013)