Madrilenian parliamentary election, 2011

Madrilenian parliamentary election, 2011

22 May 2011

All 129 seats in the Assembly of Madrid 65 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls Registered 4,622,750 3.7% Turnout 2,993,235 (65.9%) 1.4 pp   First party Second party   Leader Esperanza Aguirre Tomás Goméz Party PP PSM-PSOE Leader since 16 October 2002 27 July 2007 Last election 67 seats, 53.3% 42 seats, 33.6% Seats won 72 36 Seat change 5 6 Popular vote 1,548,306 786,297 Percentage 51.7% 26.3% Swing 1.6 pp 7.3 pp   Third party Fourth party   Leader Gregorio Gordo Luis de Velasco Rami Party IU UPyD Leader since 20 March 2009 23 October 2010 Last election 11 seats, 8.9% Did not contest Seats won 13 8 Seat change 2 8 Popular vote 287,707 189,055 Percentage 9.6% 6.3% Swing 0.7 pp New party

President before election Esperanza Aguirre PP Elected President Esperanza Aguirre PP

The 2011 Madrilenian parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 22 May 2011, to elect the 9th Assembly of Madrid, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Madrid. At stake were all seats in the Assembly, determining the President of the Community of Madrid. The number of members increased from 120 to 129 compared to the previous election.

The election was won by the People's Party (PP) which had formed the regional government since the 1995 election. In total, the PP under incumbent President Esperanza Aguirre won 72 seats, although the party's overall vote share decreased. In contrast, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) under former Mayor of Parla Tomás Goméz had their worst result in terms of votes and seats up until that date. The third largest party, United Left (IU), polled their highest vote share since 1995. Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD), a party formed after the 2007 election, surpassed the 5% threshold and entered the Assembly for the first time.

Electoral system

The number of seats in the regional Assembly was determined by the population count, with 1 seat per each 50,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 25,000, according to the most updated census data.^[1] As the updated population census for the 2011 election was the corresponding to year 2010 (6,458,684), the Assembly size was set to 129 seats.^[2]

All Assembly members were elected in a single multi-member district, consisting of the Community's territory (the province of Madrid), using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 5% of valid votes in all of the community (which include blank ballots—for none of the above) were entitled to enter the seat distribution.^[3]

Opinion polls

Vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PP	PSOE	IU	UPyD	Oth.	Lead
22 May 2011	Regional Election	51.7	26.3	9.6	6.3	6.1	25.4
22 May	Ipsos-Eco	52.6	25.0	9.8	6.0	6.6	27.6
Exit polls
28 Apr	GAD	54.0	28.3	10.6	3.1	4.0	25.7
28–29 Apr	Metroscopia	53.4	29.1	9.7	4.3	3.5	24.3
25–28 Apr	Obradoiro	52.3	33.3	7.0	3.4	4.0	19.0
25–26 Apr	TNS-Demoscopia	54.5	29.3	8.6	3.2	4.4	25.2
25 Apr	NC-Report[lower-alpha 1]	54.3	27.9	9.3	4.7	3.8	26.4
15–20 Apr	Ikerfel	54.6	30.4	7.3	3.7	4.0	24.2
13–20 Apr	Celeste-Tel[lower-alpha 1]	53.2	27.8	9.2	5.7	4.1	25.4
17 Mar–17 Apr	CIS	52.1	28.4	9.1	3.7	6.7	23.7
6–15 Apr	Metroscopia	53.9	27.1	9.9	4.4	4.7	26.8
11–14 Apr	Sigma-2	55.1	28.8	8.4	2.9	4.8	26.3
23–25 Feb	NC-Report[lower-alpha 1]	54.0	28.0	9.6	4.4	4.0	26.0
24–27 Jan	NC-Report[lower-alpha 1]	53.6	28.3	9.5	4.4	4.2	25.3
2011
20–30 Dec	DYM	54.5	29.8	10.9	3.0	1.8	24.7
27–29 Dec	Sigma-2	54.6	29.7	9.8	2.3	3.6	24.9
8–18 Nov	Metroscopia	52.9	32.8	7.6	3.6	3.1	20.1
6–7 Oct	Sigma-2	55.4	29.8	7.2	4.0	3.6	25.6
12 Sep	Metroscopia[lower-alpha 2]	51.6	32.2			16.2	19.4
12 Sep	Metroscopia[lower-alpha 3]	48.3	38.7			13.0	9.6
24–26 May	Sigma-2	56.2	25.5	10.2	4.6	3.5	30.7
2 May	Metroscopia	50.6	32.9	9.0	6.2	1.3	17.7
22 Mar–13 Apr	Obradoiro	48.9	34.0	9.3	4.5	3.3	14.9
2010
7 Jun 2009	EP Election	48.6	35.6	4.5	6.9	4.4	13.0
29 Apr	Metroscopia	50.6	32.8	10.6		6.0	17.8
2009
9 Mar 2008	General Election	49.2	39.7	4.7	3.7	2.7	9.5
2008
27 May 2007	Regional Election	53.3	33.6	8.9		4.2	19.7

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 65 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Madrid Assembly.

65 seats needed for majority (01/01/2010–22/05/2011)

61 seats needed for majority (27/05/2007–01/01/2010)

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PP	PSOE	IU	UPyD	Others
22 May 2011	Regional Election	72	36	13	8	0
22 May	Ipsos-Eco	72−74	33−36	12−14	8−9	0
Exit polls
16 May	NC-Report	73−76	37−39	12−13	0−6	0
28 Apr	GAD	75−76	39−40	13−14	0	0
28–29 Apr	Metroscopia	75	41	13	0	0
25–28 Apr	Obradoiro	73−74	46−47	9	0	0
25–26 Apr	TNS-Demoscopia	75−77	41−42	11−12	0	0
25 Apr	NC-Report	73−76	37−39	12−13	0−6	0
15–20 Apr	Ikerfel	77	42	10	0	0
13–20 Apr	Celeste-Tel	72	38	12	7	0
17 Mar–17 Apr	CIS	75	41	13	0	0
6–15 Apr	Metroscopia	77	38	14	0	0
11–14 Apr	Sigma-2	76−77	40−41	11	0	0
23–25 Feb	NC-Report	73−76	37−39	12−13	0−6	0
24–27 Jan	NC-Report	72−75	38−40	12−13	0−6	0
2011
20–30 Dec	DYM	72−74	39−40	14	0−3	0
27–29 Dec	Sigma-2	74−75	40−41	13	0	0
8–18 Nov	Metroscopia	73	45	10	0	0
6–7 Oct	Sigma-2	77	41−42	9−10	0	0
5 Aug	UPyD	62	43	12	11	0
24–26 May	Sigma-2	75−79	33−36	13−14	0−6	0
2 May	Metroscopia	66	43	11	8	0
22 Mar–13 Apr	Obradoiro	65−68	45−47	12−13	0−6	0
2010
7 Jun 2009	EP Election	(64)	(47)	(0)	(9)	(0)
29 Apr	Metroscopia	65	42	13	0	0
2009
9 Mar 2008	General Election	(66)	(54)	(0)	(0)	(0)
2008
27 May 2007	Regional Election	67	42	11		0

Results

← Summary of the 22 May 2011 Madrid Assembly election results →

Party		Vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Won	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	1,548,306	51.73	1.56	72	5
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	786,297	26.27	7.30	36	6
	United Left of the Madrid Community-The Greens (IUCM-LV)	287,707	9.61	0.75	13	2
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	189,055	6.32	New	8	8
	Ecolo-Greens (ECOLO)	29,116	0.97	0.14	0	±0
	Citizens for Blank Votes (CenB)	19,220	0.64	New	0	±0
	Anti-Bullfighting Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	15,897	0.53	0.30	0	±0
	For a Fairer World (PUM+J)	10,330	0.35	0.18	0	±0
	The Falange (FE)	6,424	0.21	0.12	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	5,656	0.19	0.05	0	±0
	Citizens-Party of the Citizenry (C's)	4,879	0.16	New	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	3,936	0.13	0.07	0	±0
	Spanish Alternative (AES)	3,690	0.12	0.05	0	±0
	Union for Leganés (ULEG)	3,435	0.11	0.06	0	±0
	Liberal Democratic Centre (CDL)	3,169	0.11	New	0	±0
	Castilian Party (PCAS)	1,722	0.06	New	0	±0
	Centre and Democracy Forum (CyD)	1,639	0.05	New	0	±0
	Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn)	1,300	0.04	New	0	±0
	Blank ballots	71,458	2.39	0.66
Total		2,993,236	100.00		129	9
Valid votes		2,993,236	98.32	1.23
Invalid votes		51,113	1.68	1.23
Votes cast / turnout		3,044,349	65.86	1.45
Abstentions		1,578,401	34.14	1.45
Registered voters		4,622,750
Source(s): Assembly of Madrid Argos Information Portal

Vote share
PP			51.73%
PSOE			26.27%
IUCM-LV			9.61%
UPyD			6.32%
Others			3.68%
Blank ballots			2.39%

Parliamentary seats
PP			55.81%
PSOE			27.91%
IUCM-LV			10.08%
UPyD			6.20%

Notes

1. This survey shows its poll results projected over candidacy votes (that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots). The vote percentage in the official election is calculated including blank ballots into the estimation. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results as well as those of other surveys, a rule of three has been applied to the survey projections, with the results of the calculation being shown instead.
2. Hypothesized scenario with Tomás Gómez as PSOE candidate.
3. Hypothesized scenario with Trinidad Jiménez as PSOE candidate.

References

1. "Statute of Autonomy of Madrid; Title I. Chapter I. Of the Assembly of Madrid.)".
2. "Seat count will increase from 120 to 129 in the next legislature" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2011-03-12.
3. "Law 11/1986, of 16 December, electoral of the Community of Madrid; Chapter VII. The electoral system.".