Asturian parliamentary election, 2011

Asturian parliamentary election, 2011

22 May 2011

All 45 seats in the Asturian General Junta 23 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls Registered 987,305 0.6% Turnout 609,072 (61.7%) 0.1 pp   First party Second party   Leader Javier Fernández Francisco Álvarez Cascos Party PSOE FAC Leader since 23 October 2010 18 January 2011 Last election 21 seats, 42.0% Did not contest Seats won 15 16 Seat change 6 16 Popular vote 179,619 178,031 Percentage 29.9% 29.7% Swing 12.1 pp New party   Third party Fourth party   Leader Isabel Pérez-Espinosa Jesús Iglesias Party PP IU Leader since 29 December 2010 2007 Last election 20 seats, 41.5% 4 seats, 9.7% Seats won 10 4 Seat change 10 ±0 Popular vote 119,767 61,703 Percentage 20.0% 10.3% Swing 21.5 pp 0.6%

President before election Vicente Álvarez Areces PSOE Elected President Francisco Álvarez Cascos FAC

The 2011 Asturian parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 22 May 2011, to elect the 8th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Asturias. At stake were all 45 seats in the General Junta, determining the President of the Principality of Asturias.

Except for the 1995-1999 legislature, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) had governed the autonomous community since the first election in 1983.^[1] However, in the 2011 election, the Asturias Forum (FAC), a split from the People's Party (PP), won the most seats despite PSOE obtaining more votes. The FAC was established on 19 January 2011 by Francisco Álvarez Cascos, former Deputy Prime Minister of Spain, after failing to be selected as PP's candidate. FAC gains came at the expense of the PP and the PSOE, but while PSOE's collapse had been predicted in early opinion polls, the PP had been widely expected to make strong gains before Cascos' split, instead scoring the worst result of its history. The Asturian Bloc (BA) had terminated its coalition with United Left (IU) and the Asturian Greens (LVA) in August 2010 and run separately, failing to win any seats. IU and the Greens maintained their coalition and retained their existing four seats.^[1]

Vicente Álvarez Areces, incumbent since 1999,^[1] did not seek re-election. As in Asturias it is not allowed for parties to vote against a proposed presidential candidate (instead being forced to either abstain or vote a candidate of their own), on July 2011, the PSOE and PP announced that they would abstain in the investiture voting of Álvarez Cascos, who thus became the new President at the head of a minority administration.^[2]

The resulting government, however, was not able to gather legislative support to approve its 2012 regional budget, with both PP and PSOE blocking the vote, resulting in a fresh election being held in March 2012.

Electoral system

The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias were elected in 3 multi-member districts using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Unlike other regions, districts did not coincide with provincial limits, being determined by law as such:

• Central District, comprising the municipalities of: Aller, Avilés, Bimenes, Carreño, Caso, Castrillón, Corvera de Asturias, Gijón, Gozón, Illas, Las Regueras, Langreo, Laviana, Lena, Llanera, Mieres, Morcín, Noreña, Oviedo, Proaza, Quirós, Ribera de Arriba, Riosa, San Martín del Rey Aurelio, Santo Adriano, Sariego, Siero, Sobrescobio and Soto del Barco.
• Eastern District, comprising the municipalities of: Amieva, Cabrales, Cabranes, Cangas de Onís, Caravia, Colunga, Llanes, Nava, Onís, Parres, Peñamellera Alta, Peñamellera Baja, Piloña, Ponga, Ribadedeva, Ribadesella and Villaviciosa.
• Western District, comprising the municipalities of: Allande, Belmonte de Miranda, Boal, Candamo, Cangas del Narcea, Castropol, Coaña, Cudillero, Degaña, El Franco, Grado, Grandas de Salime, Ibias, Illano, Muros del Nalón, Navia, Pesoz, Pravia, Salas, San Martín de Oscos, Santa Eulalia de Oscos, San Tirso de Abres, Somiedo, Tapia de Casariego, Taramundi, Teverga, Tineo, Valdés, Vegadeo, Villanueva de Oscos, Villayón and Yernes y Tameza.

Each district was entitled to an initial minimum of 2 seats, with the remaining 39 seats allocated among the three districts in proportion to their populations. For the 2007 election, seats were distributed as follows: Central District (34), Eastern District (5) and Western District (6).

Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 3% of the total vote in each district (which include blank ballots—for none of the above) were entitled to enter the seat distribution.^[3]

Background

On 7 July 2010, the President of Asturias, Vicente Álvarez Areces, announced that he would not seek re-election.^[4] Following the announcement, the General Secretary of the Asturian Socialist Federation (FSA), PSOE's regional branch, declared that he would seek the nomination to become the presidential candidate.^[5] His candidacy, supported by the FSA Executive Committee, was ratified by the PSOE Federal Committee on 23 October 2010.^[6]

United Left, coalition partner of the PSOE, decided that their regional General Coordinator, Jesús Sánchez Iglesias, would be its presidential candidate for a second consecutive time. His candidacy was supported by the IU Asturian Presidency in November 2010^[7] and ratified by IU's political council in Asturias on 27 November 2010.^[8]

The Asturian Bloc ended its coalition with United Left and the Greens in October 2010 and contested the election in a joint electoral list with the Asturian Nationalist Unity (UNA) under the label Bloc for Asturias-UNA: Commitment for Asturias. BA's sole sitting deputy, Rafael Palacios, was their presidential candidate.^[9]

Oviedo city councillor Isabel Pérez-Espinosa was selected by the People's Party as its presidential candidate on 29 December 2010.^[10] This led to a split within the Asturian PP as former Deputy Prime Minister Francisco Álvarez-Cascos had been seeking the nomination. He resigned from the PP and formed the Asturias Forum, running to the election on his own.^[11]

Opinion polls

Vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PSOE	PP	IU	UPyD	FAC	Oth.	Lead
22 May 2011	Regional Election	29.9	20.0	10.3	2.4	29.7	7.7	0.2
Exit polls
10–12 May	Sigma-2	33.4	24.2	9.1		25.8	7.5	7.6
4–11 May	Asturbarómetro	25.4	15.1	9.4		42.8	7.3	17.4
28 Apr–9 May	Ipsos-Eco	32.1	30.1	10.9		19.7	7.2	2.0
29 Apr–2 May	Obradoiro	36.8	20.9	9.2	2.7	25.5	4.9	11.3
29 Apr–2 May	TNS-Demoscopia	31.2	29.8	10.4		22.5	6.1	1.4
13–20 Apr	Celeste-Tel[lower-alpha 1]	30.4	22.7	10.9		25.7	10.3	4.7
17 Mar–17 Apr	CIS	35.7	32.2	8.2	1.9	15.0	7.0	3.5
11–16 Apr	Asturbarómetro	24.5	15.3	9.7		43.1	7.4	18.6
11–14 Apr	Sigma-2	33.6	23.1	11.4		24.8	7.1	8.8
4–11 Apr	Ikerfel	30.1	29.6	9.4	2.8	23.8	4.3	0.5
5–7 Apr	GAD	32.0	26.5	11.5		25.2	4.8	5.5
12–19 Jan	Asturbarómetro	21.4	18.0	9.6	2.4	42.2	6.4	20.8
3 Jan	Sigma-2	27.3	22.5	8.1		36.5	5.6	9.2
3 Jan	Sigma-2	37.2	46.8	7.6			8.4	9.6
30 Dec–3 Jan	NC-Report[lower-alpha 1]	34.8	44.1				21.1	9.3
2011
31 Oct	Asturbarómetro	37.8	47.2	9.0	2.1		3.9	9.4
19–21 May	Sigma-2	36.4	46.8	9.8			7.0	10.4
8–15 Mar	Obradoiro	40.2	43.3	7.7			8.8	3.1
2010
7 Jun 2009	EP Election	44.1	42.0	5.6	4.1		4.2	2.1
2009
9 Mar 2008	General Election	46.9	41.6	7.2	1.4		2.9	5.3
2008
27 May 2007	Regional Election	42.0	41.5	9.7			6.8	0.6

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.

23 seats needed for majority

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PSOE	PP	IU	UPyD	FAC	Others
22 May 2011	Regional Election	15	10	4	0	16	0
Exit polls
15 May	NC-Report	17	13−14	5	0	9−10	0
10–12 May	Sigma-2	17	11−12	3−4	0	12−14	0
4–11 May	Asturbarómetro	16	6	3	0	20	0
28 Apr–9 May	Ipsos-Eco	16−17	15−16	4	0	9	0
29 Apr–2 May	Obradoiro	18−19	10−11	3−4	0−1	12−13	0
29 Apr–2 May	TNS-Demoscopia	14−16	14−15	4−6	0	10−11	0
25 Apr	NC-Report	18	12	4	0	11	0
13–20 Apr	Celeste-Tel	15	12	5	0	13	0
17 Mar–17 Apr	CIS	19	16	3	0	7	0
11–16 Apr	Asturbarómetro	13−15	6−7	4	0	19−21	0
11–14 Apr	Sigma-2	17	11−12	4	0	12−13	0
4–11 Apr	Ikerfel	14−16	14−15	3	1	11−12	0
5–7 Apr	GAD	15	13	5	0	12	0
3 Jan	Sigma-2	13−15	10	3	0	17−19	0
3 Jan	Sigma-2	18−19	23−24	3	0		0
30 Dec–3 Jan	NC-Report	18	23	4	0		0
2011
19–21 May	Sigma-2	18−19	23−24	3	0		0
8–15 Mar	Obradoiro	20−21	21−22	3	0		0
2010
7 Jun 2009	EP Election	(22)	(20)	(2)	(1)		(0)
2009
9 Mar 2008	General Election	(22)	(20)	(3)	(0)		(0)
2008
27 May 2007	Regional Election	21	20	4			0

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 22 May 2011 Asturian General Junta election results →

Party		Vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Won	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	179,619	29.92	12.12	15	6
	Asturias Forum (FAC)	178,031	29.66	New	16	16
	People's Party (PP)	119,767	19.95	21.55	10	10
	United Left of Asturias-The Greens (IU-LV)	61,703	10.28	0.59	4	±0
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	14,640	2.44	New	0	±0
	Independents of Asturias (IDEAS)	6,380	1.06	New	0	±0
	Bloc for Asturias-Asturian Nationalist Unity (BA-UNA)	6,191	1.03	New	0	±0
	Front of the Left (FDLI)	4,598	0.77	New	0	±0
	The Greens-Green Group (LV-GV)	3,626	0.60	New	0	±0
	Asturian Renewal Union-Asturianist Party (URAS-PAS)	2,953	0.49	1.73	0	±0
	Anti-Bullfighting Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	1,950	0.32	New	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	1,434	0.24	0.09	0	±0
	Open Council (Conceyu)	1,421	0.24	0.11	0	±0
	Constitutional and Democratic Party (PDyC)	1,034	0.17	New	0	±0
	National Democracy (DN)	711	0.12	0.03	0	±0
	Liberal and Social Alternative (ALS)	334	0.06	New	0	±0
	National Front-Republican Social Movement (MSR)	260	0.04	New	0	±0
	Communist Unification of Spain (UCE)	11	0.00	New	0	±0
	Blank ballots	15,611	2.60	0.19
Total		600,274	100.00		45	±0
Valid votes		600,274	98.56	0.64
Invalid votes		8,798	1.44	0.64
Votes cast / turnout		609,072	61.69	0.10
Abstentions		378,233	38.31	0.10
Registered voters		987,305
Source(s): General Junta of the Principality of Asturias Asturian Society of Economic and Industrial Studies (SADEI) Argos Information Portal

Vote share
PSOE			29.92%
FAC			29.66%
PP			19.95%
IU-LV			10.28%
UPyD			2.44%
IDEAS			1.06%
BA-UNA			1.03%
Others			3.06%
Blank ballots			2.60%

Parliamentary seats
FAC			35.56%
PSOE			33.33%
PP			22.22%
IU-LV			8.89%

Results by district

Election results by district.

Notes

1. This survey shows its poll results projected over candidacy votes (that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots). The vote percentage in the official election is calculated including blank ballots into the estimation. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results as well as those of other surveys, a rule of three has been applied to the survey projections, with the results of the calculation being shown instead.

References

1. Asturias election results historiaelectoral.com, accessed 2011-04-23
2. "Cascos will have to govern Asturias in minority" (in Spanish). El País. 2011-07-09.
3. "Law 14/1986, of 26 December, on the regulation of elections to the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias".
4. "Socialist Álvarez Areces renounces to stand for re-election to the Asturian Government after three terms" (in Spanish). El País. 2010-07-08.
5. "Javier Fernández, the Socialist candidate" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2010-07-20.
6. "Javier Fernández, ratified as PSOE candidate" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2010-07-20.
7. "IU proposes Jesús Iglesias to repeat as candidate" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2010-11-25.
8. "Iglesias: The budget guarantees social benefits" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2010-11-28.
9. "Rafael Palacios will head the joint list of Bloc for Asturias and UNA" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2011-02-02.
10. "The PP names Isabel Pérez-Espinosa candidate in Asturias and discards Álvarez Cascos" (in Spanish). RTVE. 2010-12-30.
11. "Álvarez-Cascos, proclaimed candidate to the Principality's Presidency" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2011-03-29.