Valencian parliamentary election, 2015

Valencian parliamentary election, 2015

24 May 2015

All 99 seats in the Valencian Courts 50 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls Registered 3,609,265 1.7% Turnout 2,510,459 (69.6%) 0.6 pp   First party Second party Third party   Leader Alberto Fabra Ximo Puig Mònica Oltra Party PPCV PSPV-PSOE Compromís Leader since 28 July 2011 31 March 2012 31 January 2015 Last election 55 seats, 49.4% 33 seats, 28.0% 6 seats, 7.2% Seats won 31 23 19 Seat change 24 10 13 Popular vote 658,612 509,098 456,823 Percentage 26.6% 20.6% 18.5% Swing 22.8 pp 7.4 pp 11.3 pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Carolina Punset Antonio Montiel Ignacio Blanco Party C's Podemos AC Leader since 2 February 2015 14 February 2015 8 November 2014 Last election Did not contest Did not contest 5 seats, 7.6%[lower-alpha 1] Seats won 13 13 0 Seat change 13 13 5 Popular vote 309,121 282,389 106,917 Percentage 12.5% 11.4% 4.3% Swing New party New party 3.3 pp

President before election Alberto Fabra PP Elected President Ximo Puig PSPV-PSOE

The 2015 Valencian parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th democratically-elected Valencian Courts, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Valencia. At stake were all 99 seats in the Courts. The election was held concurrently with the regional elections for 12 other autonomous communities, as well as the 2015 municipal elections.

While incumbent President Alberto Fabra's People's Party (PPCV) remained as the most voted party, it lost 24 seats and 22 percentage points to its 2011 result, and the absolute majority it had held since 1999. This result was attributed to the party's management of the economic crisis, as well as the various corruption scandals that affected the PP throughout the entire 2011–2015 period, some of which were unveiled just weeks before the election. The Socialist Party of the Valencian Country (PSPV-PSOE) came second, with 23 seats, but lost 10 to the already negative result of 2011 and obtaining the worst result of its history.

Three other parties achieved representation, of which two were new: Compromís, with 19 seats, Podemos and C's. EUPV, the main party in a coalition of other forces known as Acord Ciutadà (Valencian for "Citizen Agreement"), did not reach the 5% required threshold to achieve representation and therefore lost all of its seats in the Courts. Turnout was, at 69.56%, the lowest since 1999.

Alberto Fabra announced he would retire from his party's leadership in the region after a PSPV–Compromís coalition with Podemos' support expelled the PP from the regional government after 20 years in power. As a result, Ximo Puig from the PSPV-PSOE was elected as new regional President.

Electoral system

The number of seats in the Valencian Courts was set to a fixed-number of 99. All Courts members were elected in 3 multi-member districts, corresponding to the Valencian Community's three provinces, using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Each district was entitled to an initial minimum of 20 seats, with the remaining 39 seats allocated among the three provinces in proportion to their populations, on the required condition that the number of inhabitants per seat in each district did not exceed 3 times those of any other. For the 2015 election, seats were distributed as follows: Alicante (35), Castellon (24) and Valencia (40).

Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 5% of valid votes in all of the community (which include blank ballots—for none of the above) were entitled to enter the seat distribution. This meant that in the case a list polled above 5% in one or more of the districts but below 5% in the community totals, it would remain outside of the seat apportionment.^[1]

Background

The 2011 regional election had resulted in the People's Party increasing its absolute majority despite losing votes, thanks to the collapse of the Socialist Party of the Valencian Country vote, which scored its worst historical result up to that point. However, after 16 years of uninterrupted rule, corruption scandals involving the PP began to erupt. Two months after the election, President Francisco Camps resigned because of his alleged implication in the Gürtel case,^[2] being replaced as President of the Generalitat Valenciana by Alberto Fabra.^[3] The following years saw the unveiling of a series of corruption scandals that rocked the PPCV, involving party MPs,^[4] mayors,^[5] local councillors,^[6] regional councillors,^[7] Courts' speakers^[8] and former regional president José Luis Olivas.^[9] At one point, up to 20% of the party MPs in the Valencian Courts (11 out of 55) were charged in different corruption cases; a joke popularized at the time said that they would become the third political force in the Valencian Courts, only behind PP and PSOE, if they were to form their own parliamentary group.^[10] The regional party leadership also had to cope with accusations of illegal financing^[11] as well as possible embezzlement in the additional costs incurred in the Formula 1 project and Pope Benedict XVI's 2006 visit to Valencia.^[12][13]

At the same time, the regional government had to deal with the effects of the ongoing financial crisis. Despite the community's decision to ask for a bailout from the central government headed by Mariano Rajoy on July 2012,^[14] its economic situation remained severe. Fabra's government had to close down RTVV, the regional public television broadcasting channel, because of financing issues; a decision which was met with widespread protest.^[15][16]

The 2014 European Parliament election resulted in enormous losses for the People's Party, which, in the largest Valencian cities, lost almost half of its votes in percentage terms compared to the previous elections. Both the economic crisis and corruption helped hasten the party's decline, which had already seen support drop in opinion polls since 2011. The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party found itself unable to gain any of the PP's lost support and lost votes too, to the benefit of until then minority parties such as United Left, Union, Progress and Democracy, Citizens or the newly created Podemos party.^[17]

Opinion polls

Vote estimations

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Color key:

      Exit poll

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling								Margin of Error	Sample Size	Lead
Regional Election	May 24, 2015	26.6	20.6	18.4	4.3	1.2	12.5	11.4			6.0
Emer	May 24, 2015	31.2	19.4	15.5	3.8		12.5	11.5	±0.4 pp	15,864	11.8
NC Report	May 17, 2015	32.6	20.9	8.7	5.4	1.5	15.7	10.2	±3.5 pp	800	11.7
Sigma Dos	May 12, 2015	31.2	21.2	9.5	4.9		15.4	13.0	±2.8 pp	1,200	10.0
Encuestamos	May 12, 2015	26.0	21.1	11.5	5.1	1.1	14.8	16.9	±2.3 pp	1,800	4.9
Inmerco	May 9, 2015	27.2	20.0	10.3	5.5	1.0	18.6	14.9			7.2
Invest Group	May 8, 2015	24.7	19.3	13.2	5.8		17.6	13.5	±2.4 pp	1,600	5.4
Sigma Dos	May 7, 2015	30.5	20.7	9.2	5.2		16.8	12.2	±2.3 pp	1,800	9.8
GAD3	May 5, 2015	29.7	19.5	11.6	4.2	0.8	16.2	12.2	±3.2 pp	1,000	10.2
Sigma Dos	April 24, 2015	29.7	18.4	12.2	3.6	1.0	16.1	14.8	±2.9 pp	1,200	11.3
My Word	April 21, 2015	26.5	19.7	10.8	5.3	1.0	18.1	13.8	±2.9 pp	1,218	6.8
CIS	April 19, 2015	30.4	19.9	8.1	4.3	1.5	15.3	16.5	±2.3 pp	1,955	10.5
Metroscopia	April 15, 2015	24.5	21.0	10.9	5.9		17.7	16.9	±2.6 pp	1,500	3.5
Sigma Dos	March 28, 2015	28.8	19.5	8.4	6.8		15.2	17.3	±2.9 pp	1,200	9.3
NC Report	March 26, 2015	35.2	20.4	8.2	5.1	2.1	13.4	11.2	±3.5 pp	800	14.8
Sigma Dos	March 17, 2015	30.6	19.4	10.2	5.2		12.9	14.3	±2.9 pp	1,200	11.2
ODEC	March 15, 2015	27.3	23.5	12.3	4.8	2.2	11.2	11.7	±2.2 pp	2,056	3.8
ODEC	February 21, 2015	27.9	23.2	12.0	5.6	4.6	4.6	12.9			4.7
PP	February 8, 2015	30	17	10	5	5	9	20			10
Inmerco	October 16, 2014	28.2	19.4	8.8	5.1	5.9		17.6	±5 pp	400	8.8
Sigma Dos	October 14, 2014	36.4	20.0	10.8	6.2	3.8		16.3			16.4
PP	September 26, 2014	35.5	21.0	8.5	5.7	5.1		15.0			14.5
Metroscopia	September 26, 2014	29.9	25.8	13.0	8.4	3.0		15.3	±2.6 pp	1,500	4.1
PP	September 7, 2014	28	21	7	6			18			7
EP Election	May 25, 2014	29.0	21.6	8.0	10.6	8.5	2.9	8.2			7.4
ODEC	April 2, 2014	29.8	27.4	14.6	10.2	5.4			±2.9 pp	1,201	2.4
La Vanguardia	March 30, 2014	36.5	26.6	11.2	9.9	5.0					9.9
My Word	March 12, 2014	29.7	21.2	15.0	12.2	13.3			±3.5 pp	800	8.5
PP	February 12, 2014	26.4	28.6	15.6	13.1	6.8					2.2
ODEC	December 19, 2013	28.3	23.5	13.0	10.8	6.7			±2.8 pp	1,200	4.8
NC Report	November 12, 2013	38.6	20.6								18.0
ODEC	November 7, 2013	37.2	24.2	12.1	10.5	8.6			±2.8 pp	1,200	13.0
Metroscopia	October 1, 2013	33.9	23.6	13.3	11.7	6.9			±3.2 pp	1,000	10.3
ODEC	July 29, 2013	30.9	27.9	12.5	12.1	6.2					3.0
PP	July 16, 2013	31.5	27.5								4.0
NC Report[lower-alpha 2]	May 10, 2013	41.5	20.3						±5.4 pp	350	21.2
PP	April 8, 2013	30.0	25.0	13.5	15.0	7.5					5.0
Compromís	March 29, 2013	37.4	22.9	14.8	10.8	6.9			±3.5 pp	800	14.5
ODEC	November 15, 2012	37.1	28.2	10.7	9.2	5.1			±1.7 pp	3,520	8.9
Celeste-Tel	October 31, 2012	46.6	19.2	12.8	10.1	6.6			±2.9 pp	1,200	27.4
Metroscopia	October 5, 2012	34.2	19.9	13.6	11.5	7.1			±3.2 pp	1,000	14.3
General Election	November 20, 2011	53.3	26.8	4.8	6.5	5.6					26.5
Regional Election	May 22, 2011	49.4	28.0	7.2	5.9	2.5					21.4

Parliamentary seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 50 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Valencian Courts.

Color key:

      Exit poll

50 seats needed for majority

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling
Regional Election	May 24, 2015	31	23	19	0	0	13	13
Emer	May 24, 2015	35/37	22/23	15/16	0	0	13/14	11
GAD3	May 24, 2015	33/35	22/24	13/15	0/3	0	13/15	12/13
NC Report	May 17, 2015	36/38	23/25	8/9	4/5	0	14/15	11/12
GAD3	May 17, 2015	33/34	20/21	12/13	0	0	18/19	12/13
Sigma Dos	May 12, 2015	34/36	24/25	8/9	0/5	0	16	12/13
Encuestamos	May 12, 2015	27/30	24/27	9/11	0/3	0	14/16	17/19
Inmerco	May 9, 2015	26/30	20/22	9/12	0/6	0	17/25	14/16
Invest Group	May 8, 2015	27	20	13	6	0	19	14
Sigma Dos	May 7, 2015	33/34	23/24	8/9	4/5	0	17	11/13
GAD3	May 5, 2015	32/33	20/21	12/13	0	0	19/20	13/14
Sigma Dos	April 24, 2015	33	19/22	12/14	0	0	17	15/16
My Word	April 21, 2015	28/31	22/26	8/11	3/5	0	17/19	13/15
CIS	April 19, 2015	33/35	22/23	7/8	0	0	16	19
Metroscopia	April 15, 2015	28	23	9	5	0	17	17
Sigma Dos	March 28, 2015	30/32	20/21	8	6	0	15/16	17/19
NC Report	March 26, 2015	40/42	23/25	7/8	3/4	0	12/13	11/12
Sigma Dos	March 17, 2015	33/36	21/22	9/10	4	0	14	15/16
ODEC	March 15, 2015	34	26/28	13	0	0	12/14	12
PP	March 5, 2015	37	24	6	0	0	12	20
ODEC	February 21, 2015	35	29	13	6	0	0	16
PP	January 4, 2015	42	20	8/11	0	0	5/7	20
Llorente & Cuenca	October 31, 2014	38/40	26/28	6/10	6/7	5/6	0	15/20
Sigma Dos	October 14, 2014	41/43	22/23	10	5/6	0	0	18/20
CIS	October 13, 2014	42	25	8	4	0	0	20
PP	September 26, 2014	41/42	24/25	8	6	5/6	0	13
Metroscopia	September 26, 2014	32	29	14	7	0	0	17
EP Election	May 25, 2014	(36)	(27)	(8)	(11)	(9)	(0)	(8)
ODEC	April 2, 2014	32/34	33/35	16/17	10/11	4/5
La Vanguardia	March 30, 2014	42	31	12	9	5
PP	March 5, 2014	30/32	28/29	14/16	12/13	10/11
PP	February 12, 2014	29/30	31/32	16/17	13/14	7
ODEC	December 19, 2013	34/36	29/31	14/16	11	7
NC Report	November 12, 2013	39/40	22/23	12/13	14/15	8/9
ODEC	November 7, 2013	40	28	13	11	7
Metroscopia	October 1, 2013	41	27	13	13	5
Compromís	June 13, 2013	38/39	22	18	13	7/8
NC Report	May 10, 2013	44/45	22/23	12/13	10/11	8/9
Compromís	March 29, 2013	37/39	22/24	13/15	12/14	7/9
Celeste-Tel	November 30, 2012	50/51	19/21	12	15	3
Celeste-Tel	October 31, 2012	50/51	20/21	13	10	5
Metroscopia	October 5, 2012	42	25	13	13	6
Celeste-Tel	September 30, 2012	49	31	8	6	5
Gen. Election	November 20, 2011	(59)	(29)	(0)	(6)	(5)
Regional Election	May 22, 2011	55	33	6	5	0

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Valencian Courts election results

Party		Vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Won	+/−
	People's Party of the Valencian Community (PPCV)	658,612	26.61	22.81	31	24
	Socialist Party of the Valencian Country (PSPV-PSOE)	509,098	20.57	7.47	23	10
	Commitment Coalition (Compromís)	456,823	18.46	11.27	19	13
	Citizens-Party of the Citizenry (C's)	309,121	12.49	New	13	13
	We Can (Podemos)	282,389	11.41	New	13	13
	Citizen Agreement (EUPV-EV-ERPV-AS:AC)[lower-alpha 1]	106,917	4.32	3.33	0	5
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	28,754	1.16	1.32	0	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	19,781	0.80	0.42	0	±0
	Let's Win Valencian Country (Ganemos)	18,322	0.74	New	0	±0
	Vox (VOX)	10,336	0.42	New	0	±0
	Spain 2000 (E-2000)	7,509	0.30	0.20	0	±0
	We Are Valencian (SOMVAL)	6,835	0.28	New	0	±0
	Spanish Falange of the JONS (FE-JONS)	3,569	0.14	0.09	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	2,925	0.12	0.02	0	±0
	Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero)	2,906	0.12	0.05	0	±0
	Citizens of Democratic Centre (CCD)	2,510	0.10	New	0	±0

Parties with less than 0.1% of the vote		14,768	0.60	–	0	±0
	Democratic People (Poble)	2,210	0.09	New	0	±0
	Blank Seats (Eb)	1,806	0.07	New	0	±0
	United (Junts)	1,476	0.06	0.03	0	±0
	United for Valencia (UxV)	1,438	0.06	0.09	0	±0
	Forward (Avant)	1,322	0.05	New	0	±0
	Democrat Forum (FDEE)	1,310	0.05	New	0	±0
	Individual Freedom Party (P-LIB)	1,219	0.05	New	0	±0
	The Greens-The Ecologist Alternative (EV-AE)	1,149	0.05	New	0	±0
	Citizen Hope (EsC)	1,129	0.05	New	0	±0
	The National Coalition (LCN)	1,106	0.04	New	0	±0
	Republican Social Movement (MSR)	603	0.02	New	0	±0

	Blank ballots	34,083	1.38	1.10
Total		2,475,258	100.00		99	±0
Valid votes		2,475,258	98.60	0.23
Invalid votes		35,201	1.40	0.23
Votes cast / turnout		2,510,459	69.56	0.63
Abstentions		1,098,806	30.44	0.63
Registered voters		3,609,265
Source(s): Valencian Courts Argos Information Portal

Vote share
PPCV			26.61%
PSPV-PSOE			20.57%
Compromís			18.46%
C's			12.49%
Podemos			11.41%
EUPV-EV-ERPV-AS:AC			4.32%
UPyD			1.16%
Others			3.61%
Blank ballots			1.38%

Parliamentary seats
PPCV			31.31%
PSPV-PSOE			23.23%
Compromís			19.19%
C's			13.13%
Podemos			13.13%

Results by province

Election results by province.

Aftermath

Investiture vote

First round: 25 June 2015
Absolute majority (50/99) required

Candidate: Ximo Puig
Choice		Vote
		Parties	Votes
	Yes	PSPV (23), Compromís (19), Podemos (8)	50 / 99
	No	PP (31), C's (13)	44 / 99
	Abstentions	Podemos (5)	5 / 99
Source: Historia Electoral

Notes

1. Compared to the United Left of the Valencian Country+Greens and Ecopacifists+Republican Left of the Valencian Country results in the 2011 election.
2. This survey shows its poll results projected over candidacy votes (that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots). The vote percentage in the official election is calculated including blank ballots into the estimation. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results as well as those of other surveys, a rule of three has been applied to the survey projections, with the results of the calculation being shown instead.

References

1. "Law 1/1987, of 31 March, Valencian electoral".
2. "Francisco Camps resigns" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2011-07-21.
3. "Alberto Fabra replaces Camps at the head of the PPCV and the Generalitat" (in Spanish). El País. 2011-07-21.
4. "The presence of 20% of accused MPs divides the Valencian PP" (in Spanish). El País. 2013-06-29.
5. "Judge charges Castedo again for benefitting the constructor Ortiz" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2014-09-19.
6. "The PP has fifty defendants in municipal offices" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-01-10.
7. "Valencian councillor resigns after being accused of leaking a secret report" (in Spanish). Cadena SER. 2012-11-30.
8. "Juan Cotino, accused for the contracts with Gürtel during the Pope's visit" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2014-11-10.
9. "Olivas, imputed for tax fraud in the advising of Vicente Cotino" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2014-06-02.
10. "Those charged within the Valencian PP would become the third political force in the Courts" (in Spanish). Hoy. 2013-06-09.
11. "The Judge processes 19 people for the illegal financing of the Valencian PP" (in Spanish). El País. 2014-12-16.
12. "The corruption in the Valencian PP, from A to Z" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2014-08-11.
13. "The Valencian bonfire of PP corruption" (in Spanish). El País. 2014-11-16.
14. "The Valencian Community asks for a bailout" (in Spanish). Público. 2012-07-20.
15. "Fabra closes down the Valencian television after Justice's overthrowing of the ERE" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2013-11-05.
16. "Protests for the closing down of Channel 9 encircle Fabra and isolate the PP" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2013-12-04.
17. "The PP vote collapses in the largest cities and gives the key to minority parties" (in Spanish). El País. 2014-05-06.

External links

• NC Report/La Razón survey (13 May 2013)
• Parties election manifestos, Las Provincias, 12 May 2015